South Asia today is among the most unstable regions in the world, riddled by both intra- and inter-state conflict. This book presents a comprehensive technical analysis of the trade-conflict relationship within the region, and explores how South Asia demonstrates underperformance of its potential for economic integration. Using the gravity model framework, the book highlights quantitative estimates of the cost of conflict in terms of loss of trade for South Asia. Other variables representative of political and economic regimes are also included to make the model comprehensive, and the book goes on to discuss how the analysis reveals the overriding significance of the India-Pakistan relationship in the regional landscape. It looks at how the results of the econometric exercise reveal the extent to which a common border, when disputed, becomes a barrier rather than a facilitator to trade and, additionally, the extent to which long standing and persistent conflict can debilitate trade relationships. The book is a useful contribution for students and scholars of South Asian studies and international political economy, and assists in formulating policy to correct the anti-home bias that is evident in trade patterns of the South Asian economies.
List of figures
xiii
List of tables
xv
1 Introduction
1
(16)
Regional cooperation in South Asia: SAARC, SAPTA and SAFTA
2
(3)
Nature of conflict in South Asia: implications for regional economic integration
5
(4)
Global context
9
(6)
Organization of the book
15
(2)
2 South Asia: the region
17
(11)
Economic profile
18
(6)
Social development in South Asia
24
(1)
Contrasts
25
(1)
India's centrality
26
(2)
3 Trade and FDI patterns of South Asian countries
28
(33)
Post-independence economic regimes in South Asia
28
(1)
New economic policy regime
29
(5)
Patterns and trends in trade and capital flows
34
(7)
India's centrality in regional trade
41
(2)
Role and quantum of informal trade
43
(1)
Non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to trade in South Asia
44
(7)
Capital Inflows in South Asia
51
(5)
South-south FDI and South Asia
56
(1)
Scope for production networks in South Asia
57
(4)
4 Preferential trading agreements in South Asia
61
(14)
Trends in FTA formation: regional comparisons
61
(1)
Motivating factors for entering into PTAs/FTAs
62
(1)
South Asian context
63
(2)
Regional trade agreements in South Asia
65
(3)
Bilateral trade agreements
68
(3)
Inter-sub-regional agreements
71
(2)
Scope for reconciliation of overlap between FTAs and RTAs in South Asia
73
(2)
5 Conflict in South Asia
75
(24)
Nature of conflict in South Asia
75
(7)
Chronological sequence of conflict events and CBMs in South Asia
82
(9)
Impact of conflict on bilateral trade: visual impressions
91
(8)
6 Theoretical foundations of the economic integration and conflict relationship in South Asia
99
(16)
Theoretical foundations
100
(11)
Empirical analysis and bi-directional causality
111
(4)
7 Impact of conflict on intra-regional trade in South Asia: A gravity model analysis
8 Summary findings and an assessment of the way forward
135
(17)
Summary findings
135
(8)
Way forward
143
(9)
Appendix
152
(4)
Notes
156
(9)
Bibliography
165
(7)
Index
172
Amita Batra is Associate Professor of Economics, South Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, India. She has worked extensively in the area of economic and financial integration, with a special focus on Asia.
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