Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity [Kõva köide]

  • Formaat: Hardback, 480 pages, kõrgus x laius x paksus: 231x157x43 mm, kaal: 680 g, Illustrations, unspecified
  • Ilmumisaeg: 24-Mar-2020
  • Kirjastus: Hachette Books
  • ISBN-10: 0316484911
  • ISBN-13: 9780316484916
  • Formaat: Hardback, 480 pages, kõrgus x laius x paksus: 231x157x43 mm, kaal: 680 g, Illustrations, unspecified
  • Ilmumisaeg: 24-Mar-2020
  • Kirjastus: Hachette Books
  • ISBN-10: 0316484911
  • ISBN-13: 9780316484916
An urgent call to action draws on cutting-edge science to explain how humans may survive for billions of years if we can unite against existential catastrophes, from nuclear war and disease to injustice and climate change. 40,000 first printing.

This urgent and eye-opening book makes the case that protecting humanity's future is the central challenge of our time.

If all goes well, human history is just beginning. Our species could survive for billions of years - enough time to end disease, poverty, and injustice, and to flourish in ways unimaginable today. But this vast future is at risk. With the advent of nuclear weapons, humanity entered a new age, where we face existential catastrophes - those from which we could never come back. Since then, these dangers have only multiplied, from climate change to engineered pathogens and artificial intelligence. If we do not act fast to reach a place of safety, it will soon be too late.

Drawing on over a decade of research, The Precipice explores the cutting-edge science behind the risks we face. It puts them in the context of the greater story of humanity: showing how ending these risks is among the most pressing moral issues of our time. And it points the way forward, to the actions and strategies that can safeguard humanity.

An Oxford philosopher committed to putting ideas into action, Toby Ord has advised the US National Intelligence Council, the UK Prime Minister's Office, and the World Bank on the biggest questions facing humanity. In The Precipice, he offers a startling reassessment of human history, the future we are failing to protect, and the steps we must take to ensure that our generation is not the last.
List of Figures
ix
List of Tables
x
PART ONE THE STAKES
Introduction
3(8)
1 Standing at the Precipice
11(24)
How We Got Here
12(8)
Where We Might Go
20(2)
The Precipice
22(13)
2 Existential Risk
35(32)
Understanding Existential Risk
36(6)
Looking to the Present
42(1)
Looking to Our Future
43(6)
Looking to Our Past
49(3)
Civilizational Virtues
52(1)
Cosmic Significance
53(3)
Uncertainty
56(1)
Our Neglect of Existential Risks
57(10)
PART TWO THE RISKS
3 Natural Risks
67(22)
Asteroids &c Comets
67(7)
Supervolcanic Eruptions
74(3)
Stellar Explosions
77(2)
Other Natural Risks
79(1)
The Total Natural Risk
80(9)
4 Anthropogenic Risks
89(32)
Nuclear Weapons
90(12)
Climate Change
102(11)
Environmental Damage
113(8)
5 Future Risks
121(44)
Pandemics
124(14)
Unaligned Artificial Intelligence
138(15)
Dystopian Scenarios
153(5)
Other Risks
158(7)
PART THREE THE PATH FORWARD
6 The Risk Landscape
165(22)
Quantifying the Risks
165(8)
Combining and Comparing Risks
173(2)
Risk Factors
175(5)
Which Risks?
180(7)
7 Safeguarding Humanity
187(30)
Grand Strategy for Humanity
189(6)
Risks Without Precedent
195(4)
International Coordination
199(6)
Technological Progress
205(5)
Research on Existential Risk
210(4)
What You Can Do
214(3)
8 Our Potential
217(26)
Duration
218(8)
Scale
226(9)
Quality
235(4)
Choices
239(4)
Resources 243(2)
Acknowledgments 245(6)
Appendices 251(34)
Further Reading 285(4)
Notes 289(134)
Bibliography 423(38)
Index 461