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1 Basic Principles of ERP Research, Surprise, and Probability Estimation |
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1 | (14) |
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1.1 Data Acquisition and Initial Analysis |
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1 | (5) |
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1.2 Signal-to--Noise Ratio Estimation for Event-Related Potentials |
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6 | (2) |
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1.3 Circularity in Data Analyses |
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8 | (1) |
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1.4 Probabilities and Surprise |
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9 | (3) |
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10 | (1) |
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1.4.2 Predictive Surprise |
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11 | (1) |
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1.5 Probability Weighting Functions |
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12 | (3) |
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2 Introduction to Model Estimation and Selection Methods |
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15 | (26) |
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15 | (1) |
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2.2 Classical Single-Level Models |
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16 | (3) |
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2.2.1 The Null and Informative Hypotheses |
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16 | (1) |
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2.2.2 The General Linear Model |
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17 | (2) |
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2.3 Hierarchical Multiple-Level Models |
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19 | (3) |
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19 | (1) |
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20 | (1) |
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20 | (2) |
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2.4 Model Estimation and Selection |
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22 | (7) |
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2.4.1 Collapsing and Augmenting the Hierarchical Model |
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23 | (2) |
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2.4.2 Model Parameter Optimization and Likelihood Calculation |
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25 | (2) |
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2.4.3 Model Selection Using Bayes Factors and Posterior Model Probabilities |
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27 | (1) |
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28 | (1) |
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2.5 A Transfer Example Experiment---Setup |
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29 | (6) |
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2.5.1 Signal-to-Noise Ratio Simulation |
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31 | (1) |
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2.5.2 Synthetic Data and Experimental Conditions |
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32 | (2) |
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34 | (1) |
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2.6 A Transfer Example Experiment---Results |
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35 | (5) |
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36 | (2) |
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38 | (2) |
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40 | (1) |
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3 A New Theory of Trial-by-Trial P300 Amplitude Fluctuations |
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41 | (30) |
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41 | (3) |
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3.2 Participants, Experimental Design, Data Acquisition, and Data Analysis |
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44 | (1) |
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3.3 State-of-the-Art Observer Models and Surprise |
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45 | (5) |
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3.3.1 Approach by Squires et al. (SQU) |
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45 | (2) |
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3.3.2 Approach by Mars et al. (MAR) |
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47 | (1) |
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3.3.3 Approach by Ostwald et al. (OST) |
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48 | (1) |
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3.3.4 Surprise Based on the SQU, MAR, and OST Models |
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49 | (1) |
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3.4 The Digital Filtering Model (DIF) |
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50 | (6) |
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51 | (1) |
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52 | (2) |
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3.4.3 Alternation Expectation |
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54 | (1) |
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54 | (1) |
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3.4.5 Surprise Based on the DIF Model |
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55 | (1) |
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3.4.6 DIF Model Parameter Training |
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55 | (1) |
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3.5 Specification of the Design Matrices for Model Estimation and Selection in the Oddball Task |
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56 | (2) |
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58 | (8) |
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3.6.1 Conventional ERP Analyses |
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58 | (3) |
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3.6.2 Model-Based Trial-by-Trial Analyses |
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61 | (5) |
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3.7 Summary and Discussion |
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66 | (5) |
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4 Bayesian Inference and the Urn-Ball Task |
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71 | (40) |
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71 | (2) |
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4.2 Participants, Experimental Design, Data Acquisition, and Data Analysis |
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73 | (4) |
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4.3 The Bayesian Observer Model |
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77 | (6) |
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4.3.1 Bayes' Theorem and the Urn-Ball Task |
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77 | (2) |
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4.3.2 The Belief Distribution (BEL) |
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79 | (1) |
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4.3.3 The Prediction Distribution (PRE) |
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80 | (1) |
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4.3.4 Surprise Based on the Bayesian Observer Model |
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80 | (1) |
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4.3.5 Summary and Visualization of Bayesian Inference |
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81 | (2) |
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4.4 Incorporating Probability Weighting Functions into the Bayesian Observer Model |
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83 | (4) |
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4.4.1 Probability Weighting of the Inference Input (BELSI and PRESI) |
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83 | (1) |
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4.4.2 Probability Weighting of the Inference Output (BELSO and PRESO) |
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84 | (1) |
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4.4.3 Weighting Parameter Optimization |
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85 | (2) |
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4.5 The DIF Model in the Urn-Ball Task |
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87 | (2) |
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4.5.1 The Objective Initial Prior (DIFOP) |
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88 | (1) |
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4.5.2 The Initial Prior Using Weighting Functions (DIFSP) |
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88 | (1) |
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4.6 Specification of the Design Matrices for Model Estimation and Selection in the Urn-Ball Task |
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89 | (1) |
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90 | (16) |
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4.7.1 Conventional ERP Analyses |
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90 | (4) |
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4.7.2 Model-Based Trial-by-Trial Analyses |
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94 | (12) |
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4.8 Summary and Discussion |
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106 | (5) |
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111 | (4) |
Appendix |
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115 | (4) |
Bibliography |
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119 | |