| Introduction |
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xxvii | |
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1 | (166) |
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3 | (14) |
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Basic Concepts in Data Analysis |
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3 | (6) |
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What Is a Random Variable? |
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9 | (4) |
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13 | (4) |
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Chapter 2 Was the 1969 Draft Lottery Fair? |
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17 | (1) |
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17 | (1) |
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18 | (2) |
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20 | |
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Chapter 3 Who Won the 2000 Election: Bush or Gore? |
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23 | (1) |
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Projecting the Undervotes |
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24 | (1) |
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What Happened with the Overvotes? |
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25 | (1) |
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25 | (3) |
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28 | (3) |
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Chapter 4 Was Liverpool Over Barcelona the Greatest Upset in Sports History? |
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31 | (4) |
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How Should We Rank Upsets? |
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31 | (1) |
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Leicester Wins the 2015-2016 Premier League |
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32 | (1) |
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#16 Seed UMBC Beats #1 Seed Virginia |
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33 | (1) |
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The Jets Win Super Bowl III |
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33 | (1) |
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34 | (1) |
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Chapter 5 How Did Bernie Madoff Keep His Fund Going? |
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35 | (10) |
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The Mathematics of Ponzi Schemes |
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36 | (1) |
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Madoff's Purported Strategy |
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37 | (2) |
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The Sharpe Ratio Proves Madoff Was a Fraud |
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39 | (1) |
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Benford's Law and Madoff's Fraud |
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40 | (1) |
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41 | (4) |
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Chapter 6 Is the Lot of the American Worker Improving? |
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45 | (8) |
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Is U.S. Family Income Skewed? |
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45 | (1) |
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Median Income and Politics |
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46 | (2) |
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Causes of Increasing U.S. Income Inequality |
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48 | (2) |
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Money Isn't Everything: The Human Development Index |
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50 | (1) |
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Create Your Own Ranking of Weil-Being |
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50 | (1) |
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Are Other Countries Catching Up to the U.S.? |
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51 | (1) |
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52 | (1) |
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Chapter 7 Measuring Income Inequality with the Gini, Palm, and Atkinson Indices |
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53 | (8) |
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53 | (3) |
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56 | (1) |
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57 | (2) |
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59 | (2) |
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Chapter 8 Modeling Relationships Between Two Variables |
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61 | (12) |
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Examples of Relationships Between Two Variables |
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61 | (1) |
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Finding the Best-Fitting (Least Squares) Line |
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62 | (1) |
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Computing the Beta of a Stock |
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63 | (1) |
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64 | (1) |
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65 | (2) |
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We Are Not Living in a Linear World |
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67 | (2) |
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69 | (4) |
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Chapter 9 Intergenerational Mobility |
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73 | (12) |
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Absolute Intergenerational Mobility |
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74 | (1) |
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Intergenerational Elasticity |
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74 | (1) |
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75 | (1) |
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Comparing IGE and Rank-Rank Mobility |
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75 | (3) |
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Measuring Mobility with Quintiles |
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78 | (2) |
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80 | (2) |
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82 | (3) |
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Chapter 10 Is Anderson Elementary School a Bad School? |
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85 | (4) |
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How Can We Adjust for Family Income? |
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86 | (1) |
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Estimating the Least Squares Line |
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86 | (1) |
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Can We Compare Standardized Test Performance for Students in Different States? |
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86 | (1) |
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87 | (2) |
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Chapter 11 Value-Added Assessments of Teacher Effectiveness |
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89 | (8) |
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Simple Gain Score Assessment |
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90 | (1) |
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Covariate Adjustment Assessment |
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91 | (1) |
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91 | (1) |
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Cross-Classified Constant Growth Assessment |
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91 | (2) |
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93 | (1) |
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How Much Is a Good Teacher Worth? |
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94 | (1) |
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95 | (2) |
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Chapter 12 Berkeley, Buses, Cars, and Planes |
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97 | (6) |
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Simpson's Paradox and College Admissions |
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98 | (2) |
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100 | (1) |
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When Is the Average of 40 and 80 Not 60? |
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100 | (1) |
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Why Pre COVID Were There Never Empty Seats on My Flight? |
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101 | (1) |
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101 | (2) |
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Chapter 13 Is Carmelo Anthony a Hall of Famer? |
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103 | (6) |
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What Metric Defines Basketball Ability? |
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104 | (1) |
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Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) |
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105 | (1) |
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Manu, Melo, Dirk, and Dwayne |
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106 | (1) |
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How Do 25,000 Points Lead to So Few Wins? |
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106 | (3) |
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Chapter 14 Was Derek Jeter a Great Fielder? |
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109 | (6) |
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Fielding Statistics: The First Hundred Years |
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109 | (1) |
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110 | (1) |
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The Fielding Bible: A Great Leap Forward |
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111 | (1) |
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112 | (3) |
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Chapter 15 "Drive for Show and Putt for Dough?" |
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115 | (2) |
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115 | (1) |
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116 | (1) |
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Chapter 16 What's Wrong with the NFL QB Rating? |
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117 | (10) |
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117 | (7) |
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ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating |
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124 | (1) |
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125 | (2) |
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Chapter 17 Some Sports Have All the Luck |
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127 | (4) |
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Skill vs. Luck: The Key Idea |
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127 | (2) |
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129 | (2) |
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Chapter 18 Gerrymandering |
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131 | (12) |
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132 | (4) |
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The Mathematics of Gerrymandering |
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136 | (7) |
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Chapter 19 Evidence-Based Medicine |
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143 | (8) |
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James Lind and Scurvy: The Birth of Evidence-Based Medicine |
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143 | (2) |
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The Randomized Streptomycin Tuberculosis Trial |
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145 | (1) |
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146 | (2) |
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Hormone Replacement: Good or Bad? |
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148 | (3) |
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Chapter 20 How Do We Compare Hospitals? |
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151 | (8) |
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152 | (4) |
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156 | (1) |
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157 | (2) |
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Chapter 21 What Is the Worst Health Care Problem in My Country? |
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159 | (8) |
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Disability-Adjusted Life Years |
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159 | (1) |
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Determination of Disability Weights |
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160 | (2) |
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To Age Weight or Discount, That Is the Question |
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162 | (1) |
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Key Facts About World Health |
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163 | (4) |
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Part II What Will Happen? |
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167 | (116) |
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Chapter 22 Does a Mutual Fund's Past Performance Predict Future Performance? |
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169 | (12) |
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170 | (1) |
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170 | (1) |
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Risk-Adjusting Fund Returns |
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171 | (4) |
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How Well Do Morningstar Star Ratings Predict a Fund's Future Performance? |
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175 | (2) |
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The Effect of Expense Ratio on Long-Term Performance |
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177 | (1) |
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178 | (3) |
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Chapter 23 Is Vegas Good at Picking NFL Games? |
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181 | (10) |
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181 | (3) |
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184 | (1) |
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Vegas Forecasts Are Unbiased |
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185 | (3) |
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Totals Predictions and Money Line Predictions Are Unbiased |
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188 | (1) |
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NFL Accuracy: The Line vs. the Computers |
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188 | (1) |
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A System Works Until It Doesn't |
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189 | (2) |
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Chapter 24 Will My New Hires Be Good Employees? |
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191 | (8) |
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What Data Do We Need to Determine Attributes That Best Predict Employee Performance? |
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192 | (4) |
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Besides GMA, Not Much Affects Job Performance |
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196 | (1) |
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197 | (2) |
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Chapter 25 Should I Go to State U or Princeton? |
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199 | (4) |
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Analyzing Princeton vs. Penn State |
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200 | (2) |
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202 | (1) |
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Chapter 26 Will My Favorite Sports Team Be Great Next Year? |
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203 | (6) |
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Francis Galton and Regression to the Mean |
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203 | (1) |
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Regression to the Mean in the NFL and the NBA |
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204 | (3) |
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207 | (2) |
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Chapter 27 How Did Central Bankers Fail to Predict the 2008 Recession? |
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209 | (10) |
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210 | (1) |
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The Sahm Rule: Early Warning Signal for Recession |
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211 | (1) |
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Control Charts and the Housing Price/Rent Ratio |
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211 | (4) |
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215 | (4) |
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Chapter 28 How Does Target Know If You're Pregnant? |
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219 | (6) |
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What Available Data Can Be Used to Identify Pregnant Women? |
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220 | (1) |
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220 | (1) |
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An Example of a Pregnancy Prediction Score |
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221 | (4) |
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Chapter 29 How Does Netflix Recommend Movies and TV Shows? |
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225 | (8) |
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User-Based Collaborative Filtering |
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226 | (3) |
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229 | (4) |
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Chapter 30 Can We Predict Heart Attacks in Real Time? |
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233 | (8) |
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234 | (1) |
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Sensitivity and Specificity |
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235 | (1) |
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235 | (2) |
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Back to the Apple Heart Study |
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237 | (2) |
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239 | (2) |
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Chapter 31 Is Proactive Policing Effective? |
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241 | (8) |
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242 | (1) |
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243 | (1) |
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244 | (1) |
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244 | (2) |
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246 | (1) |
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247 | (2) |
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Chapter 32 Guess How Many Are Coming to Dinner? |
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249 | (10) |
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Which Parameters Must Be Estimated? |
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250 | (2) |
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252 | (1) |
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253 | (1) |
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Which Factor Really Matters? |
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254 | (1) |
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254 | (5) |
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Chapter 33 Can Prediction Markets Predict the Future? |
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259 | (6) |
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Examples of Trade Contracts |
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260 | (1) |
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Prediction Market Trading Mechanisms |
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261 | (1) |
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Accuracy of Prediction Markets and Wisdom of Crowds |
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262 | (3) |
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Chapter 34 The ABCs of Polling |
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265 | (8) |
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Why Are 1,112 People Enough to Represent U.S. Voters? |
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265 | (2) |
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Why Doesn't a Larger Population Require a Larger Sample Size? |
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267 | (1) |
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268 | (3) |
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271 | (2) |
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Chapter 35 How Did Buzzfeed Make the Dress Go Viral? |
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273 | (4) |
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Measuring Instagram Engagement |
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274 | (1) |
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Tweets Do Not Always Go Viral Immediately |
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274 | (1) |
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Do the First Few Days Predict the Future of a Meme? |
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275 | (2) |
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Chapter 36 Predicting Game of Thrones TV Ratings |
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277 | (6) |
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What Does Google Trends Tell Us? |
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277 | (1) |
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Predicting the Present with Google Trends |
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278 | (1) |
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Using Google Trends to Forecast GOT Ratings |
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279 | (2) |
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281 | (2) |
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Part III Why Did It Happened? |
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283 | (68) |
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Chapter 37 Does Smoking Cause Lung Cancer? |
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285 | (6) |
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Correlation and Causation Redux |
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285 | (1) |
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286 | (1) |
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Could Air Pollution Have Caused Lung Cancer? |
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287 | (1) |
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The Cigarette Companies Hit Back |
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287 | (1) |
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288 | (3) |
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Chapter 38 Why Are the Houston Rockets a Good Basketball Team? |
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291 | (6) |
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292 | (3) |
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Zach LaVine Battles the Bulls' Analytics Department |
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295 | (1) |
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296 | (1) |
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296 | (1) |
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Chapter 39 Why Have Sacrifice Bunts and Intentional Walks Nearly Disappeared? |
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297 | (4) |
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298 | (1) |
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Bunting Against the Shift |
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299 | (1) |
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Why Are Intentional Walks on the Decline? |
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300 | (1) |
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Chapter 40 Do NFL Teams Pass Too Much and Go for It Often Enough on Fourth Down? |
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301 | (6) |
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301 | (2) |
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303 | (1) |
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New Data Partially Vindicates the Coaches |
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304 | (2) |
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Teams Should Go for Two More Often |
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306 | (1) |
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Chapter 41 What Caused the 1854 London Cholera Outbreak? |
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307 | (6) |
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307 | (1) |
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Snow and the Broad Street Pump |
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308 | (2) |
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Snow's Randomized Controlled Trial |
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310 | (1) |
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311 | (1) |
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312 | (1) |
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Chapter 42 What Affects the Sales of a Retail Product? |
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313 | (6) |
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313 | (2) |
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Estimating the Model Parameters |
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315 | (1) |
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316 | (3) |
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Chapter 43 Why Does the Pareto Principle Explain So Many Things? |
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319 | (8) |
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320 | (2) |
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Why Do Incomes Follow the Pareto Principle? |
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322 | (1) |
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Why Do a Few Websites Get Most of the Hits? |
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323 | (1) |
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324 | (3) |
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Chapter 44 Does Where You Grow Up Matter? |
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327 | (6) |
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Quasi-Experimental Design vs. Randomized Controlled Trials |
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328 | (1) |
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What Drives Neighborhood Differences in Upward Mobility? |
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329 | (1) |
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How Can We Make Things Better? |
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330 | (3) |
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Chapter 45 The Waiting is the Hardest Part |
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333 | (6) |
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Which Factors Influence the Performance of a Queueing System? |
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334 | (1) |
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Operating Characteristics of a Queueing System |
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334 | (1) |
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How Does Variability Degrade the Performance of a Queueing System? |
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335 | (1) |
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Calculating the Operating Characteristics of a Queueing System |
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336 | (2) |
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338 | (1) |
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Chapter 46 Are Roundabouts a Good Idea? |
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339 | (8) |
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340 | (1) |
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340 | (1) |
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341 | (2) |
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Disadvantages of Roundabouts |
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343 | (1) |
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344 | (1) |
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Roundabouts and Revolutions |
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345 | (2) |
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Chapter 47 Red Light, Green Light, or No Light? |
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347 | (4) |
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What Causes Traffic Jams? |
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347 | (1) |
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How Should We Set the Lights? |
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348 | (1) |
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349 | (1) |
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Measuring the Impact of Ramp Meters |
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350 | (1) |
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The Twin Cities Metering Holiday |
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350 | (1) |
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Part IV How Do I Make Good Things Happen? |
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351 | (118) |
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Chapter 48 How Can We Improve K-12 Education? |
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353 | (10) |
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Tennessee's STAR Study on K-2 Class Size |
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355 | (1) |
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356 | (4) |
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Can Predictive Analytics Increase Enrollment and Performance in Eighth-Grade Algebra I? |
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360 | (1) |
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360 | (3) |
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Chapter 49 Can A/B Testing Improve My Website's Performance? |
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363 | (6) |
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Improving Obama's Fundraising in 2008 |
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364 | (1) |
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The Mechanics of Resampling |
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365 | (1) |
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366 | (3) |
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Chapter 50 How Should I Allocate My Retirement Portfolio? |
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369 | (8) |
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The Basic Portfolio Optimization Model |
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369 | (3) |
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372 | (2) |
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Difficulties in Implementing the Markowitz Model |
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374 | (1) |
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374 | (3) |
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Chapter 51 How Do Hedge Funds Work? |
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377 | (12) |
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Growth in Hedge Funds and Hedge Fund Fee Structure |
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378 | (1) |
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378 | (1) |
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Long/Short and Market-Neutral Strategies |
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378 | (2) |
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380 | (2) |
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382 | (1) |
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383 | (1) |
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384 | (1) |
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The George Costanza Portfolio |
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384 | (1) |
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385 | (4) |
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Chapter 52 How Much Should We Order and When Should We Order? |
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389 | (8) |
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The Economic Order Quantity Model |
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389 | (3) |
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Reorder Points, Service Levels, and Safety Stock |
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392 | (1) |
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393 | (4) |
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Chapter 53 How Does the UPS Driver Know the Order to Deliver Packages? |
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397 | (8) |
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Why Is the Traveling Salesperson Problem So Hard? |
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398 | (1) |
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Solving the Traveling Salesperson Problem |
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399 | (1) |
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The Traveling Salesperson Problem in the Real World |
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400 | (1) |
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401 | (4) |
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Chapter 54 Can Data Win a Presidential Election? |
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405 | (10) |
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Democratic Presidential Analytics |
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405 | (4) |
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409 | (3) |
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Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election |
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411 | (1) |
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412 | (3) |
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Chapter 55 Can Analytics Save Our Republic? |
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415 | (8) |
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Arrow's Impossibility Theorem |
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416 | (1) |
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It's Not Easy to Pick a Winner! |
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417 | (2) |
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419 | (1) |
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420 | (1) |
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420 | (1) |
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421 | (2) |
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Chapter 56 Why Do I Pay Too Much on eBay? |
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423 | (6) |
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How Many Pennies in the Jar? |
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423 | (1) |
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The Importance of Asymmetric Information |
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424 | (1) |
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The Winner's Curse and Offshore Oil Leases |
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424 | (1) |
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Sports Free Agents and the Winner's Curse |
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425 | (1) |
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Can You Avoid the Winner's Curse? |
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425 | (2) |
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427 | (2) |
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Chapter 57 Can Analytics Recognize, Predict, or Write a Hit Song? |
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429 | (8) |
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How Does Shazam Know What Song You Are Listening To? |
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430 | (1) |
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How Did Hit Song Science Know Norah Jones's Album Would Be a Smash? |
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431 | (2) |
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Can Artificial Intelligence Write a Good Song? |
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433 | (4) |
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Chapter 58 Can an Algorithm Improve Parole Decisions? |
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437 | (12) |
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An Example of Risk Scores |
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438 | (3) |
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ProPublica Criticizes Risk Scores |
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441 | (2) |
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Skeem and Lowenkamp and PCRA |
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443 | (1) |
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Machine Learning and Parole Decisions |
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444 | (5) |
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Chapter 59 How Do Baseball Teams Decide Where to Shift Fielders? |
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449 | (8) |
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449 | (1) |
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450 | (2) |
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Empirical Evidence on the Shift |
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452 | (1) |
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Why Not Just Beat the Shift? |
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452 | (1) |
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453 | (4) |
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Chapter 60 Did Analytics Help the Mavericks Win the 2011 NBA Title? |
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457 | (6) |
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How Can You Evaluate a Basketball Player? |
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457 | (2) |
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From Player Ratings to Lineup Ratings |
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459 | (4) |
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Chapter 61 Who Gets the House in the Hamptons? |
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463 | (6) |
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464 | (1) |
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What Asset Division Is Best? |
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465 | (1) |
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466 | (3) |
| Index |
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469 | |
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