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E-raamat: Applied Uncertainty Analysis for Flood Risk Management [World Scientific e-raamat]

Edited by (Univ Of Newcastle Upon Tyne, Uk), Edited by (Lancaster Univ, Uk)
  • Formaat: 684 pages, illustrations
  • Ilmumisaeg: 31-Mar-2009
  • Kirjastus: Imperial College Press
  • ISBN-13: 9781848162716
Teised raamatud teemal:
  • World Scientific e-raamat
  • Hind: 189,42 €*
  • * hind, mis tagab piiramatu üheaegsete kasutajate arvuga ligipääsu piiramatuks ajaks
  • Formaat: 684 pages, illustrations
  • Ilmumisaeg: 31-Mar-2009
  • Kirjastus: Imperial College Press
  • ISBN-13: 9781848162716
Teised raamatud teemal:
This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short term (real-time forecasting) and long term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis.
Preface v
Section I: Introduction 1(36)
Chapter 1 Flood Risk Management: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
3(22)
Jim W. Hall
Chapter 2 Use of Models in Flood Risk Management
25(12)
Keith Beven
Section II: Theoretical Perspectives 37(62)
Chapter 3 A Framework for Uncertainty Analysis
39(21)
Keith Beven
Chapter 4 Classical Approaches for Statistical Inference in Model Calibration with Uncertainty
60(8)
R.E. Chandler
Chapter 5 Formal Bayes Methods for Model Calibration with Uncertainty
68(19)
Jonathan Rougier
Chapter 6 The GLUE Methodology for Model Calibration with Uncertainty
87(12)
Keith Beven
Section III: Uncertainties in Flood Modelling and Risk Analysis 99(286)
Chapter 7 Uncertainty in Rainfall Inputs
101(52)
R.E. Chandler
V.S. Isham
P.J. Northrop
H.S. Wheater
C.J. Onof
N.A. Leith
Chapter 8 Uncertainty in Flood Frequency Analysis
153(45)
Thomas R. Kjeldsen
Rob Lamb
Sarka D. Blazkova
Chapter 9 Minimising Uncertainty in Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values
198(34)
C. Keef
Chapter 10 Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Modelling
232(38)
Paul D. Bates
Florian Pappenberger
Renata J. Romanowicz
Chapter 11 Flood Defence Reliability Analysis
270(27)
Pieter van Gelder
Han Vrijling
Chapter 12 Uncertainties in Flood Modelling in Urban Areas
297(38)
Slobodan Djordjevic
Zoran Vojinovic
Richard Dawson
Dragan A. Savic
Chapter 13 The Many Uncertainties in Flood Loss Assessments
335(22)
John Chatterton
Edmund Penning-Rowsell
Sally Priest
Chapter 14 Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Current and Future Flood Risk in the Thames Estuary
357(28)
Jim W. Hall
Hamish Harvey
Owen Tarrant
Section IV: Uncertainties in Real-Time Flood Forecasting 385(178)
Chapter 15 Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting
387(20)
Albrecht H. Weerts
Dong-Jun Seo
Micha Werner
John Schaake
Chapter 16 A Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling Approach to Real-Time Flood Forecasting
407(55)
Peter C. Young
Renata J. Romanowicz
Keith Beven
Chapter 17 Uncertainty Estimation in Fluvial Flood Forecasting Applications
462(37)
Kevin Sene
Albrecht H. Weerts
Keith Beven
Robert J. Moore
Chris Whitlow
Stefan Laeger
Richard Cross
Chapter 18 Case Study: Decision Making for Flood Forecasting in the US National Weather Service
499(7)
Robert Hartman
John Schaake
Chapter 19 Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainties in Operational Forecasting: Examples from the Delft FEWS Forecasting System
506(32)
Micha Werner
Paolo Reggiani
Albrecht H. Weerts
Chapter 20 Real-Time Coastal Flood Forecasting
538(25)
Kevin Horsburgh
Jonathan Flowerdew
Section V: Uncertainties in Long-Term Change in Flood Risk 563(62)
Chapter 21 Detecting Long-Term Change in Flood Risk
565(13)
Cintia B. Uvo
Robin T. Clarke
Chapter 22 Detecting Changes in Winter Precipitation Extremes and Fluvial Flood Risk
578(27)
Robert L. Wilby
Bayley J. Fowler
Bill Donovan
Chapter 23 Flood Risk in Eastern Australia — Climate Variability and Change
605(20)
Stewart W. Franks
Section VI: Communicating Uncertainties 625(38)
Chapter 24 Translating Uncertainty in Flood Risk Science
627(36)
Hazel Faulkner
Meghan Alexander
David Leedal
Index 663