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E-raamat: Understanding Public Opinion Polls [Taylor & Francis e-raamat]

(Leiden University, The Netherlands)
  • Formaat: 286 pages, 37 Tables, black and white; 68 Illustrations, color; 55 Illustrations, black and white
  • Ilmumisaeg: 30-Aug-2017
  • Kirjastus: CRC Press
  • ISBN-13: 9781315154220
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Understanding Public Opinion PollsSuurem pilt
  • Formaat: 286 pages, 37 Tables, black and white; 68 Illustrations, color; 55 Illustrations, black and white
  • Ilmumisaeg: 30-Aug-2017
  • Kirjastus: CRC Press
  • ISBN-13: 9781315154220
Teised raamatud teemal:
Taylor & Francis e-raamatudRohkem infot Taylor & Francis e-raamatute kohta
Raamatu kodulehekülg: https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/9781315154220
Polls are conducted every day all around the world for almost everything (especially during elections). But not every poll is a good one. A lot depends on the type of questions asked, how they are asked and whether the sample used is truly representative. And these are not the only aspects of a poll that should be checked. So how does one separate the chaff from the wheat?

Thats where Understanding Public Opinion Polls comes in. Written by a well-known author with over thirty years of experience, the book is built around a checklist for polls that describes the various aspects of polls to pay attention to if one intends to use its results. By comprehensively answering the questions in the checklist, a good idea of the quality of the poll is obtained.

Features:











Provides readers with a deeper understanding of practical and theoretical aspects of opinion polls while assuming no background in mathematics or statistics





Shows how to determine if a poll is good or bad





Provides a historical perspective and includes examples from real polls





Gives special attention to online and election polls

The book gives an overview of many aspects of polls questionnaire design, sample selection, estimation, margins of error, nonresponse and weighting. It is essential reading for those who want to gain a better understanding of the ins and outs of polling including those who are confronted with polls in their daily life or work or those who need to learn how to conduct their own polls.
Chapter 1 About Polls 1(14)
1.1 The Wheat And The Chaff
1(2)
1.2 What Is A Poll?
3(2)
1.3 Conducting A Poll
5(4)
1.3.1 The Target Population
5(1)
1.3.2 The Variables
5(1)
1.3.3 The Population Characteristics
5(1)
1.3.4 The Questionnaire
6(1)
1.3.5 The Mode of Data Collection
6(1)
1.3.6 The Sampling Frame
7(1)
1.3.7 The Sampling Design
7(1)
1.3.8 The Sample Size
8(1)
1.3.9 Data Collection
8(1)
1.3.10 Analysis
8(1)
1.3.11 Nonresponse Correction
9(1)
1.3.12 Publication
9(1)
1.4 Examples Of Polls
9(3)
1.4.1 The American Community Survey
9(1)
1.4.2 The Eurobarometer
10(2)
1.5 Summary
12(3)
Chapter 2 Some History 15(16)
2.1 The Origins Of Statistical Data Collection
15(1)
2.2 The Census Era
16(3)
2.3 The Rise Of Survey Sampling
19(1)
2.4 Opinion Polls
20(3)
2.5 From Traditional To Computer-Assisted Interviewing
23(4)
2.6 Online Polls
27(2)
2.7 Summary
29(2)
Chapter 3 The Questionnaire 31(32)
3.1 Asking Questions
31(3)
3.2 Asking Factual And Nonfactual Questions
34(1)
3.3 The Text Of The Question
35(8)
3.3.1 Is Familiar Wording Used in the Text?
35(1)
3.3.2 Is the Question Ambiguous?
36(1)
3.3.3 Is the Question Text Too Long?
37(1)
3.3.4 Is It a Recall Question?
38(1)
3.3.5 Is It a Leading Question?
39(1)
3.3.6 Does the Question Ask Things People Don't Know?
40(1)
3.3.7 Is It a Sensitive Question?
41(1)
3.3.8 Is It a Double Question (Also Called a Double-Barreled Question)?
41(1)
3.3.9 Is It a Negative Question?
42(1)
3.3.10 Is It A Hypothetical Question?
42(1)
3.4 Question Types
43(10)
3.4.1 Open Questions
43(1)
3.4.2 Closed Question, One Answer
44(4)
3.4.3 Closed Question, More Than One Answer
48(1)
3.4.4 Numerical Question
49(2)
3.4.5 Grid Question
51(2)
3.5 The Order Of The Questions
53(3)
3.6 Testing The Questionnaire
56(4)
3.7 Summary
60(3)
Chapter 4 Data Collection 63(12)
4.1 Modes Of Data Collection
63(1)
4.2 Mail Polls
64(1)
4.3 Face-To-Face Polls
65(3)
4.4 Telephone Polls
68(2)
4.5 Online Polls
70(1)
4.6 The Choice Of The Mode Of Data Collection
71(3)
4.7 Summary
74(1)
Chapter 5 Sampling 75(26)
5.1 By A Sample We May Judge The Whole Piece
75(2)
5.2 A Representative Sample?
77(2)
5.3 The Sampling Frame
79(2)
5.4 How Not To Select A Sample
81(2)
5.4.1 A Poll in a Shopping Mall
82(1)
5.4.2 A Poll in a Magazine
82(1)
5.4.3 A Poll about Singles
82(1)
5.4.4 A Household Poll
83(1)
5.5 Random Numbers
83(5)
5.6 Simple Random Sampling
88(3)
5.7 Systematic Sampling
91(2)
5.8 Two-Stage Sampling
93(2)
5.9 Quota Sampling
95(1)
5.10 Self-Selection
96(3)
5.11 Summary
99(2)
Chapter 6 Estimation 101(18)
6.1 Estimator And Estimate
101(2)
6.2 An Example Of A Poll
103(2)
6.3 Estimating A Population Percentage
105(4)
6.4 Estimating A Population Mean
109(5)
6.5 How Large Should The Sample Be?
114(4)
6.5.1 The Sample Size for Estimating a Percentage
114(3)
6.5.2 The Sample Size for Estimating a Mean
117(1)
6.6 Summary
118(1)
Chapter 7 Nonresponse 119(24)
7.1 The Nonresponse Problem
119(2)
7.2 Consequences Of Nonresponse
121(9)
7.3 Nonresponse Analysis
130(4)
7.4 Nonresponse Correction
134(5)
7.5 Summary
139(4)
Chapter 8 Online Polls 143(34)
8.1 The Rise Of Online Polls
143(2)
8.2 Undercoverage In Online Polls
145(4)
8.3 Sample Selection For An Online Poll
149(4)
8.4 Nonresponse In Online Polls
153(2)
8.5 Adjustment Weighting
155(4)
8.6 Measurement Errors
159(8)
8.6.1 Response Order Effects
160(3)
8.6.2 Endorsing the Status Quo
163(1)
8.6.3 Selecting the Middle Option
163(1)
8.6.4 Straight-Lining
164(1)
8.6.5 Don't Know
165(1)
8.6.6 Arbitrary Answer
166(1)
8.6.7 Other Aspects
167(1)
8.7 Online Panels
167(5)
8.8 Example: The UK Polling Disaster
172(3)
8.9 Summary
175(2)
Chapter 9 Election Polls 177(30)
9.1 Voting And Polling
177(3)
9.2 Preelection Polls
180(17)
9.2.1 Asking for Voting Intentions
180(4)
9.2.2 Data Collection
184(4)
9.2.3 Representativity
188(4)
9.2.4 Single-Question Polls
192(2)
9.2.5 An Example: The U.S. Presidential Election in 2016
194(3)
9.3 Exit Polls
197(7)
9.3.1 The First Exit Poll
198(2)
9.3.2 The Basics of Exit Polls
200(3)
9.3.3 Examples of Exit Polls
203(1)
9.4 Summary
204(3)
Chapter 10 Analysis 207(24)
10.1 The Analysis Of Poll Data
207(4)
10.2 Analysis Of The Distribution Of A Quantitative Variable
211(5)
10.3 Analysis Of The Distribution Of A Qualitative Variable
216(2)
10.4 Analysis Of The Relationship Between Two Quantitative Variables
218(3)
10.5 Analysis Of The Relationship Between Two Qualitative Variables
221(5)
10.6 Analysis Of The Relationship Between A Quantitative And A Qualitative Variable
226(3)
10.7 Summary
229(2)
Chapter 11 Publication 231(30)
11.1 The Research Report
231(1)
11.2 The Structure Of The Research Report
232(6)
11.2.1 The Executive Summary
232(1)
11.2.2 The Methodological Account
233(3)
11.2.3 The Outcomes of the Analysis
236(1)
11.2.4 The Conclusions
237(1)
11.2.5 Literature
237(1)
11.2.6 Appendices
237(1)
11.3 Use Of Graphs
238(9)
11.3.1 Pie Chart
239(2)
11.3.2 Bar Chart
241(2)
11.3.3 Dot Plot
243(1)
11.3.4 Grouped and Stacked Bar Chart
243(2)
11.3.5 Showing Developments over Time
245(2)
11.4 Guidelines For Designing Graphs
247(12)
11.4.1 Guideline 1: Do Not Mess with the Scales
247(2)
11.4.2 Guideline 2: Put the Data in the Proper Context
249(4)
11.4.3 Guideline 3: Be Careful with the Use of Symbols
253(2)
11.4.4 Guideline 4: No Three-Dimensional Perspective
255(2)
11.4.5 Guideline 5: No Chart Junk
257(2)
11.5 Summary
259(2)
Chapter 12 A Checklist for Polls 261(16)
12.1 Separating The Chaff From The Wheat
261(2)
12.2 The Nine Questions
263(8)
12.2.1 Is There a Research Report?
263(1)
12.2.2 Is the Poll Commissioned or Sponsored by an Organization That Has No Interest in Its Outcomes?
264(1)
12.2.3 Is the Target Population Clearly Defined?
264(1)
12.2.4 Is the Questionnaire Available?
265(1)
12.2.5 Is the Sample a Random Sample?
265(1)
12.2.6 Are the Initial Sample Size and Realized Sample Size Reported?
266(1)
12.2.7 Is the Response Rate Sufficiently High, Say Higher than 50%?
267(2)
12.2.8 Have the Outcomes Been Corrected for Selective Nonresponse?
269(1)
12.2.9 Are the Margins of Error Specified?
270(1)
12.3 An Example: Social Media Stress
271(5)
12.3.1 Is There a Research Report?
272(1)
12.3.2 Is the Poll Commissioned or Sponsored by an Organization That Has No Interest in Its Outcomes?
273(1)
12.3.3 Is the Target Population Clearly Defined?
273(1)
12.3.4 Is the Questionnaire Included in the Research Report?
273(1)
12.3.5 Is the Sample a Random Sample for Which Each Person in the Target Population Has a Positive Probability of Selection?
274(1)
12.3.6 Are the Initial Sample Size and the Realized Sample Size (Number of Respondents) Reported?
274(1)
12.3.7 Is the Response Rate Sufficiently High, Say Higher than 50%?
275(1)
12.3.8 Have the Outcomes Been Corrected (By Adjustment Weighting) for Selective Nonresponse?
275(1)
12.3.9 Are the Margins of Error Specified?
275(1)
12.4 Summary
276(1)
Index 277
Jelke Bethlehem is an expert in the methodology of surveys and polls. For 36 years, he conducted research at Statistics Netherlands. Research topics were nonresponse, disclosure control, and online data collection. He has written several books about surveys and polls, the most important ones being Applied Survey Methods, Handbook of Nonresponse in Household Surveys, and Handbook of Web Surveys. He has retired from Statistics Netherland now, but is still a professor in survey methodology at the Leiden University.
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