Preface |
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xi | |
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xiii | |
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xvii | |
Acronyms |
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xxv | |
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PART I COMMODITY MARKET DYNAMICS |
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1 | (114) |
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1 Individual Dynamics: From Trends to Risks |
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3 | (66) |
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1.1 Backwardation, Contango and Commodity Risk Premium |
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9 | (4) |
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1.2 Understanding Commodities' Momenta |
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13 | (30) |
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1.2.1 Persistence of Shocks in Commodities |
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18 | (2) |
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1.2.2 The Nature of Momentum in Commodity Markets |
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20 | (12) |
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1.2.3 Time Series Momentum and the Number and Nature of Regimes |
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32 | (11) |
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1.3 Volatility to Returns Spillovers and Tail Events in Commodities |
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43 | (26) |
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1.3.1 Spillover Effects in Commodity Markets |
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43 | (8) |
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1.3.2 Twenty Years of Jumps in Commodity Markets |
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51 | (10) |
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61 | (8) |
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69 | (46) |
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2.1 Common Risk Factors in Commodities |
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77 | (13) |
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78 | (2) |
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2.1.2 PCA and the Estimation of the Number of Common Components |
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80 | (2) |
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82 | (8) |
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2.2 Volatility Spillovers in Commodity Markets |
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90 | (25) |
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2.2.1 The Volatility Spillover Index |
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96 | (2) |
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2.2.2 Four Empirical Applications |
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98 | (12) |
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110 | (5) |
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PART II COMMODITIES AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE |
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115 | (54) |
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3 The Reaction of Commodity Markets to Economic News |
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117 | (28) |
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3.1 Measuring the Impact of Price Discovery on Asset Prices |
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117 | (1) |
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3.2 Key Insights from the Academic Literature |
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118 | (1) |
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119 | (2) |
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3.4 An Example: S&P 500, 10Y and USD |
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121 | (1) |
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122 | (1) |
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3.6 Dependence on the Business Cycle: NBER Recessions/Expansion Phases |
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123 | (2) |
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125 | (3) |
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128 | (1) |
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3.9 Market-by-Market Analysis |
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129 | (14) |
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3.9.1 Database for Commodity Prices |
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129 | (1) |
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130 | (2) |
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132 | (3) |
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135 | (3) |
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3.9.5 Agricultural Commodities |
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138 | (5) |
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143 | (2) |
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143 | (2) |
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4 Economic Regimes and Commodity Markets as an Asset Class |
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145 | (24) |
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4.1 Index Performances, the Fed and the NBER Crises |
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145 | (2) |
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4.2 Measuring the Business Cycle |
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147 | (1) |
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4.3 To Which Business Cycle are the Commodity Markets Related? |
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148 | (7) |
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4.4 Commodity Performances Depending on the Nature of Each Economic Regime |
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155 | (5) |
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160 | (7) |
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167 | (2) |
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167 | (2) |
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PART III COMMODITIES AND FUNDAMENTAL VALUE |
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169 | (154) |
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5 Cross-Commodity Linkages |
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177 | (64) |
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5.1 A Primer on Granger Causality Testing and Cointegration |
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177 | (4) |
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5.1.1 Granger Causality Testing |
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177 | (1) |
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5.1.2 Cointegration without Structural Breaks |
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177 | (2) |
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5.1.3 Cointegration with Structural Breaks |
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179 | (2) |
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5.2 Dataset and Unit Root Test Results |
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181 | (2) |
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5.3 Cointegration in Agricultural Markets |
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183 | (19) |
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184 | (4) |
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5.3.2 Results of Granger Causality Tests for Agricultural Products |
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188 | (1) |
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5.3.3 Cointegration Analyses for Agricultural Products |
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189 | (1) |
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5.3.4 Grains and Soft Commodities |
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190 | (6) |
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5.3.5 Agriculture--Energy Linkage |
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196 | (6) |
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5.4 Cointegration in Industrial Metals Markets |
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202 | (6) |
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203 | (1) |
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5.4.2 Results of Granger Causality Tests for Industrial Metals |
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204 | (1) |
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5.4.3 Cointegration Analyses for Industrial Metals |
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204 | (4) |
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5.5 Cointegration in Precious Metals Markets |
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208 | (11) |
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209 | (2) |
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5.5.2 Results of Granger Causality Tests for Precious Metals |
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211 | (1) |
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5.5.3 Cointegration Analyses for Precious Metals |
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212 | (7) |
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5.6 Cointegration in Energy Markets |
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219 | (16) |
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220 | (2) |
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5.6.2 Results of Granger Causality Tests for Energy Markets |
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222 | (1) |
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5.6.3 Cointegration Analyses for Energy Markets |
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223 | (2) |
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225 | (6) |
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231 | (4) |
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235 | (6) |
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236 | (5) |
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6 Cointegration with Traditional Asset Markets |
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241 | (28) |
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6.1 Dataset and Unit Root Test Results |
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241 | (1) |
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6.2 Cointegration Between the GSCI Sub-Indices, S&P 500 and US 10-Year Rate |
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241 | (13) |
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244 | (1) |
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6.2.2 Results of Granger Causality Tests Between the GSCI Sub-Indices, S&P 500 and US 10-Year Rate |
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245 | (1) |
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6.2.3 Cointegration Analyses for the GSCI Sub-Indices, S&P 500 and US 10-Year Rate |
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246 | (8) |
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6.3 Cointegration Between the GSCI Sub-Indices and Exchange Rates |
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254 | (12) |
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254 | (2) |
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6.3.2 Results of Granger Causality Tests Between the GSCI Sub-Indices and Exchange Rates |
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256 | (1) |
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6.3.3 Cointegration Analyses for the GSCI Sub-Indices and Exchange Rates |
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257 | (9) |
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266 | (3) |
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266 | (3) |
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7 Cointegration with Industrial Production and Inflation |
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269 | (54) |
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7.1 Dataset and Unit Root Test Results |
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269 | (1) |
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7.2 Cointegration Between the GSCI Sub-Indices and Industrial Production |
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269 | (31) |
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274 | (1) |
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7.2.2 Results of Granger Causality Tests Between the GSCI Sub-Indices and Industrial Production |
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275 | (1) |
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7.2.3 Cointegration Analyses for Industrial Production and Commodity Prices |
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276 | (24) |
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7.3 Cointegration Between the GSCI Sub-Indices, Inflation and Monetary Indices |
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300 | (20) |
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300 | (2) |
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7.3.2 Results of Granger Causality Tests Between the GSCI Sub-Indices, Inflation and Monetary Indices |
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302 | (4) |
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7.3.3 Cointegration Analyses for Commodities, Inflation and Monetary Indices |
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306 | (14) |
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320 | (3) |
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321 | (2) |
Index |
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323 | |