"Active killer threats frequently dominate the headlines with stories of seemingly random mass killings in school, campus, and workplace settings. Nearly all of the attacks are over before the police can respond, leaving unanswered questions as to why these attacks happen and what can be done to prevent them. Fatal Grievances: Forecasting and Preventing Active Killer Threats in School, Campus, and Workplace Settings takes a proactive view of active killer threat management and resolution with the goal ofpreventing the attack before it occurs. Drawing from established threat assessment, behavioral analysis, and law enforcement negotiation theory and practice, the book presents models and methods designed to forecast and prevent an active killer attack through the process of identification, assessment, and engagement. This approach begins with definitions and orientations to violence, the importance of the primacy of focusing on direct behaviors of planned lethal violence over other more indirect behaviors, understanding how to identify a fatal grievance and that only fatal grievances result in planned lethal violence, the importance of understanding the process of crisis intervention as the key to eliminating the fatal grievance and the motivation to kill, and the use of time-series predictive behavioral threat forecasting methods to prevent an active killer attack. Case studies from within the United States and abroad support this unique approach to threat assessment and make the concepts and principlesaccessible to professionals working in the fields of education, human resources, and security"--
Active killer attacks frequently dominate the headlines with stories of seemingly random mass killings in school, campus, and workplace settings. Nearly all of the attacks are over before the police can respond, leaving unanswered questions as to why these attacks happen and what can be done to prevent them. Fatal Grievances: Forecasting and Preventing Active Killer Threats in School, Campus, and Workplace Settings takes a proactive view of active killer threat management and resolution to prevent the attack before it occurs.
Drawing from established threat assessment, behavioral analysis, and law enforcement negotiation theory and practice, the book presents models and methods designed to forecast and prevent an active killer attack through the process of identification, assessment, and engagement. This approach begins with definitions and orientations to violence, the importance of the primacy of focusing on direct behaviors of planned lethal violence over other more indirect behaviors, understanding how to identify a fatal grievance and that only fatal grievances result in planned lethal violence, the importance of understanding the process of crisis intervention as the key to eliminating the fatal grievance and the motivation to kill, and the use of time-series predictive behavioral threat forecasting methods to prevent an active killer attack. Case studies from within the United States (US) and abroad support this unique approach to threat assessment and make the concepts and principles accessible to professionals working in the fields of education, human resources, and security.
Fatal Grievances: Forecasting and Preventing Active Killer Threats in School, Campus, and Workplace Settings takes a proactive view of active killer threat management and resolution with the goal of preventing the attack before it occurs.
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xii | |
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xiii | |
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xiv | |
| Preface |
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xv | |
| Acknowledgments |
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xviii | |
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1 Introduction and Orientation to Active Killer Threat Assessment |
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1 | (17) |
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2 | (1) |
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A Paradigm Shift from Active Shooters to Active Killers |
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3 | (2) |
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A Change in Mindset from Being Reactive to Proactive |
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5 | (4) |
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Assessment versus Analysis |
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9 | (1) |
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Threat Intelligence Collection and Assessment |
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9 | (1) |
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The Problem With "Profiling" Active Killers |
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10 | (2) |
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The Importance of Operationalizing Definitions |
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12 | (4) |
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16 | (1) |
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17 | (1) |
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17 | (1) |
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2 Active Killer Characteristics: Myths vs. Statistics |
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18 | (15) |
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Myth 1 Active Killers Are Everywhere |
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18 | (8) |
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Myth 2 Active Killers Are Only a Problem in the US |
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26 | (2) |
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Myth 3 Disgruntled Students and Employees Are the Only Threat to Safety |
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28 | (1) |
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Myth 4 The Attacker Just "Snapped" |
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29 | (2) |
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Myth 5 Demographics Can Identify an Active Killer |
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31 | (1) |
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32 | (1) |
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32 | (1) |
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32 | (1) |
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3 Direct Behaviors of Planned Lethal Violence |
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33 | (21) |
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Active Killer Motivations |
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33 | (1) |
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Grievance as a Precursor of Lethal Violence |
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34 | (3) |
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Grievance and the Crisis State |
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37 | (3) |
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The Fatal Grievance Pathway |
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40 | (1) |
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41 | (3) |
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Direct Behaviors and Stages of Planned Lethal Violence |
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44 | (2) |
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Direct Behavioral Clusters of Planned Lethal Violence |
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46 | (4) |
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The Planned Lethal Violence Stairway Model |
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50 | (2) |
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52 | (1) |
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52 | (1) |
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53 | (1) |
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4 Indirect Behavioral Indicators of Planned Lethal Violence and Situational Distress Factors |
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54 | (16) |
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54 | (1) |
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Primary Indirect Behavioral Indicators |
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54 | (6) |
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Secondary Indirect Behavioral Indicators |
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60 | (4) |
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64 | (1) |
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65 | (2) |
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Situational Distress Factors |
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67 | (1) |
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68 | (1) |
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69 | (1) |
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5 Threat Management: Identifying the Threat |
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70 | (17) |
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The Necessity of Structure in Active Killer Threat Assessment |
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70 | (1) |
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Forensic Investigation and Behavioral Analytical Methods |
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71 | (1) |
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71 | (3) |
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Factors of Social Desirability |
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74 | (1) |
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The Role of Social Fabric in Threat Assessment |
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75 | (1) |
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Detecting Behavioral Indicators of Planned Lethal Violence |
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76 | (3) |
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79 | (1) |
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Establishing Baselines and Identifying Anomalies |
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80 | (4) |
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Bias and Error Considerations in Detecting Concerning Behavior |
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84 | (1) |
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85 | (1) |
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85 | (1) |
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86 | (1) |
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6 Threat Management: Assessing the Threat |
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87 | (32) |
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The Problem with Relying on "Pre-Attack Behaviors" in Threat Assessment |
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87 | (4) |
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Understanding the Significancy and Frequency of Anomalies |
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91 | (10) |
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Prediction and Threat Assessment |
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101 | (1) |
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Forecasting in Threat Assessment |
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101 | (1) |
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Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting |
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102 | (1) |
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Predictive Analytics and Modeling |
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103 | (1) |
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Predictive Behavioral Threat Forecasting |
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104 | (1) |
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105 | (8) |
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Qualitative Adjustments to Threat Confidence Levels |
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113 | (2) |
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Completing the Threat Assessment |
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115 | (1) |
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Bias Errors in Assessing a Threat |
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115 | (2) |
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117 | (1) |
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118 | (1) |
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118 | (1) |
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7 Threat Management: Engaging the Threat |
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119 | (10) |
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Conflict Management vs. Conflict Resolution |
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119 | (1) |
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120 | (1) |
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120 | (1) |
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121 | (5) |
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Engagements Based on Threat Level |
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126 | (1) |
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127 | (1) |
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128 | (1) |
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128 | (1) |
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8 Limitations and Conclusions |
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129 | (10) |
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129 | (4) |
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133 | (3) |
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136 | (3) |
| Appendix A |
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139 | (3) |
| Appendix B |
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142 | (3) |
| Appendix C Cases Analyzed |
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145 | (6) |
| References |
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151 | (11) |
| Index |
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162 | |
Gregory M. Vecchi earned a B.S. in Management/Human Resources from Park University, Parkville, Missouri, an M.S. in Criminal Justice from the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and a Ph.D. in Conflict Analysis and Resolution from Nova Southeastern University, Fort Lauderdale, Florida. He currently serves as a Professor of Criminal Justice and Homeland Security at Keiser University, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, and he is the Principal of VGI Consulting and Training. Dr. Vecchi has over 30 years of law enforcement experience. Dr. Vecchi formerly served as the Chief of the FBI Behavioral Science Unit and career FBI negotiator. In these positions, he gained extensive experience assessing and interacting with violent offenders, as well as researching, training, and conducting threat assessments. Dr. Vecchi has conducted dozens of workplace threat assessments for Fortune 500 companies.
Mary Ann Markey received a B.A. in Psychology and an M.A. in Psychology from Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida, and Ph.D. in Conflict Analysis and Resolution from Nova Southeastern University, Fort Lauderdale, Florida. She currently serves as an Adjunct Professor of Psychology at Ringling College of Art and Design, Sarasota, Florida while continuing to conduct research on intra-family violence and homicide, mass murder, and serial murder.
Jeffrey A. Daniels earned a B.A. in Psychology at Metropolitan State University, Denver, Colorado, an M.S. in Counseling Psychology from Central Washington University, Ellensburg, Washington, and a Ph.D. in Counseling Psychology from the University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska. He is currently a professor in the School of Counseling and Well-Being at West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia. Dr. Daniels has been engaged in research pertaining to violence and violence prevention for over 23 years and he has engaged in collaborative research with the FBI for over 16 years using Perpetrator-Motive Research Design.
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