Preface |
|
xiii | |
Acknowledgments |
|
xix | |
About the Authors |
|
xxi | |
Chapter 1 Energy Commodities and Price Formation |
|
1 | (22) |
|
Energy as a Strategic Resource |
|
|
1 | (2) |
|
Energy as a Tradable Commodity |
|
|
3 | (2) |
|
|
5 | (7) |
|
|
5 | (3) |
|
|
8 | (3) |
|
|
11 | (1) |
|
|
11 | (1) |
|
Price Drivers in Energy Markets |
|
|
12 | (8) |
|
|
12 | (1) |
|
The Geopolitical Chessboard - The Petrodollar System and Rising China |
|
|
12 | (3) |
|
Long-Term Supply and Demand |
|
|
15 | (2) |
|
Short-Term Supply and Demand: Supply Chain and Infrastructure |
|
|
17 | (2) |
|
Financialization of Commodities |
|
|
19 | (1) |
|
Market-Specific Price Drivers |
|
|
19 | (1) |
|
|
20 | (3) |
Chapter 2 Major Energy Consumers and the Rationale for Fuel Hedging |
|
23 | (32) |
|
Energy Market Participants |
|
|
23 | (4) |
|
Risks Faced by Fuel Consumers - The Case of the Airline Industry |
|
|
27 | (8) |
|
Airline Industry - Metrics and Operational Risks |
|
|
27 | (3) |
|
Airline Industry - Financial Risks |
|
|
30 | (5) |
|
Risks Faced by Other Major Fuel Consumers |
|
|
35 | (4) |
|
|
35 | (2) |
|
|
37 | (1) |
|
Oil Refining, Petrochemicals, and Power Generation |
|
|
37 | (1) |
|
Industrial Users of Energy Commodities |
|
|
38 | (1) |
|
|
39 | (2) |
|
The Effect of Hedging on Airline Stock Price Volatility |
|
|
39 | (2) |
|
Commodity Derivative Markets |
|
|
41 | (12) |
|
A Brief History of Commodity Markets |
|
|
42 | (1) |
|
Commodity Spot Markets and the Need for Standardization |
|
|
43 | (1) |
|
|
44 | (1) |
|
|
45 | (5) |
|
|
50 | (3) |
|
|
53 | (1) |
|
|
54 | (1) |
Chapter 3 Developing Fuel Hedging Strategies |
|
55 | (22) |
|
The Rationale for Commodity Hedging |
|
|
55 | (2) |
|
Developing a Fuel Hedging Program |
|
|
57 | (1) |
|
Risk Identification and Assessment |
|
|
57 | (3) |
|
|
58 | (1) |
|
|
59 | (1) |
|
Forecasting Prices and Conducting Simulations |
|
|
59 | (1) |
|
Articulating the Firm's Risk Appetite |
|
|
60 | (1) |
|
Setting Objectives for Fuel Hedging and the Scope of Hedging |
|
|
60 | (2) |
|
Identifying Risk Managers within the Organization |
|
|
61 | (1) |
|
Determining the Scope of the Hedge Program |
|
|
61 | (1) |
|
Implementation of Hedging |
|
|
62 | (6) |
|
Selecting the Fuel Cost Management Method |
|
|
62 | (1) |
|
Identifying the Underlying to Hedge with and Basis Risk |
|
|
63 | (3) |
|
Quantity and Tenor of Hedging |
|
|
66 | (1) |
|
Selection of Instruments for Hedging |
|
|
67 | (1) |
|
|
68 | (1) |
|
Management of the Unwanted Risks of a Portfolio |
|
|
68 | (2) |
|
|
68 | (1) |
|
|
69 | (1) |
|
|
69 | (1) |
|
Legal and Reputational Risk |
|
|
70 | (1) |
|
Monitoring and Calibration of the Hedging Program |
|
|
70 | (1) |
|
Template for a Risk Management Policy |
|
|
71 | (1) |
|
The Airline Industry - Trends in Fuel Risk Management |
|
|
71 | (4) |
|
Magnitude of Fuel Price Risk |
|
|
71 | (2) |
|
Underlyings and Hedging Instruments |
|
|
73 | (1) |
|
Quantity and Tenor of Hedging |
|
|
74 | (1) |
|
|
75 | (1) |
|
|
75 | (2) |
Chapter 4 Shipping and Airlines - Basics of Fuel Hedging |
|
77 | (36) |
|
Spot-Forward Relationships |
|
|
77 | (5) |
|
Theories on the Shape of Forward Curves |
|
|
78 | (1) |
|
Spot-Forward Relationships for Investment Assets |
|
|
79 | (1) |
|
Spot-Forward Relationships for Commodities |
|
|
80 | (1) |
|
Spot and Futures Volatility |
|
|
81 | (1) |
|
|
82 | (4) |
|
|
83 | (1) |
|
|
84 | (1) |
|
Option-Based Hedging for a Shipping Company |
|
|
85 | (1) |
|
Implied Volatility and the Black-Scholes Model |
|
|
86 | (3) |
|
The Black-Scholes-Merton Model |
|
|
88 | (1) |
|
Black's Model for Pricing Options on Futures Contracts |
|
|
89 | (1) |
|
|
89 | (7) |
|
|
90 | (2) |
|
|
92 | (1) |
|
|
92 | (2) |
|
|
94 | (1) |
|
|
94 | (1) |
|
|
95 | (1) |
|
Black's Model Option Greeks |
|
|
95 | (1) |
|
|
96 | (1) |
|
Asian Swap-Based Hedging for a Shipping Company |
|
|
97 | (1) |
|
|
97 | (7) |
|
Call Spreads and Put Spreads |
|
|
97 | (2) |
|
Collars, Three-Ways, and Calendar Spread Options |
|
|
99 | (1) |
|
Straddles, Strangles, and Butterflies |
|
|
100 | (2) |
|
|
102 | (1) |
|
Capped Swap Usage for a Shipping Company |
|
|
103 | (1) |
|
|
104 | (8) |
|
Stochastic Processes for Asset Prices - An Introduction |
|
|
104 | (1) |
|
Brownian Motion and Wiener Processes |
|
|
104 | (2) |
|
|
106 | (1) |
|
Option Pricing Using the Black-Scholes-Merton Formula |
|
|
107 | (2) |
|
|
109 | (3) |
|
|
112 | (1) |
Chapter 5 Advanced Hedging and Forward Curve Dynamics |
|
113 | (28) |
|
Swap and Vanilla Option-Based Structures |
|
|
113 | (5) |
|
Zero-Cost Structures and the Usage of Options |
|
|
114 | (1) |
|
|
114 | (2) |
|
|
116 | (1) |
|
|
117 | (1) |
|
|
118 | (1) |
|
|
119 | (3) |
|
|
120 | (1) |
|
|
120 | (1) |
|
Risk Reversals and their Hedging |
|
|
121 | (1) |
|
Early-Expiry Options and Instantaneous Volatility Term Structures |
|
|
122 | (5) |
|
The Samuelson Effect and the Storage Theory |
|
|
122 | (1) |
|
Implied Volatility of Energy Futures Contracts |
|
|
123 | (1) |
|
Early-Expiry Profile Construction |
|
|
124 | (3) |
|
Commodity Swaptions and Extendible Swaps |
|
|
127 | (6) |
|
Usage of Commodity Swaptions and the Reasons for their Popularity |
|
|
127 | (1) |
|
Swaption vs. a Basket of Options |
|
|
128 | (5) |
|
Understanding Commodity Futures Term Structures |
|
|
133 | (2) |
|
The Normal Backwardation or Keynesian Theory |
|
|
133 | (1) |
|
|
134 | (1) |
|
|
135 | (5) |
|
Schwartz's One-Factor Model |
|
|
135 | (1) |
|
Schwartz's Two-Factor Model |
|
|
136 | (1) |
|
|
137 | (1) |
|
Gabillon's Stochastic Equation for Futures |
|
|
138 | (1) |
|
Early-Expiry Profile Using Gabillon's Model |
|
|
139 | (1) |
|
Importance of Early-Expiry Profile for Exotic Products |
|
|
139 | (1) |
|
|
140 | (1) |
Chapter 6 Exotic Hedging and Volatility Dynamics |
|
141 | (50) |
|
Extendible Option Structures |
|
|
142 | (8) |
|
|
142 | (1) |
|
|
143 | (1) |
|
Cancellable - Extendible Parity |
|
|
144 | (2) |
|
Pricing Extendible Option Structures |
|
|
146 | (4) |
|
|
150 | (2) |
|
Stochastic Volatility Models |
|
|
150 | (2) |
|
Barrier Option-Based Structures |
|
|
152 | (8) |
|
Knock-Out Options and Knock-In Options |
|
|
152 | (2) |
|
Relationship between KI and KO Options |
|
|
154 | (1) |
|
|
154 | (1) |
|
|
154 | (1) |
|
KIKOs and Combinations of KI and KO Options |
|
|
155 | (1) |
|
|
156 | (1) |
|
European or Asian-Style Barrier Options |
|
|
157 | (1) |
|
Barrier Payouts and Non-linearity - Digital Options and Replication |
|
|
157 | (3) |
|
|
160 | (8) |
|
Barrier Options Under the Black-Scholes Framework |
|
|
161 | (2) |
|
|
163 | (1) |
|
MTM Analysis of Barrier Options Under the Black-Scholes Framework |
|
|
163 | (2) |
|
Pricing and Risk Management of Barriers with Real-World Constraints |
|
|
165 | (2) |
|
Barrier Options on a Nearby Futures Contract |
|
|
167 | (1) |
|
|
168 | (2) |
|
Bermudan Extendible Structures |
|
|
170 | (10) |
|
Valuation of Bermudan Extendibles |
|
|
174 | (1) |
|
Longstaff-Schwartz Method and Exercise Boundaries |
|
|
174 | (3) |
|
Extendible vs. Auto-callable Transactions |
|
|
177 | (1) |
|
Bermudan Extendibles and the Forward Skew |
|
|
177 | (2) |
|
The Inverse Leverage Effect in Commodities Markets |
|
|
179 | (1) |
|
Target Redemption Structures |
|
|
180 | (7) |
|
Target Redemptions and the 2008 Debacle |
|
|
182 | (1) |
|
|
183 | (1) |
|
Target Redemption Pricing and Risk Management |
|
|
184 | (1) |
|
|
185 | (1) |
|
Target Redemption and Trading Risks |
|
|
186 | (1) |
|
Sticky Strike and Sticky Delta |
|
|
187 | (3) |
|
|
187 | (1) |
|
Sticky Delta or Sticky Moneyness |
|
|
188 | (1) |
|
|
188 | (2) |
|
|
190 | (1) |
Chapter 7 Fuel Hedging and Counterparty Risk |
|
191 | (27) |
|
The Importance of Valuation and Transaction Monitoring |
|
|
191 | (1) |
|
|
192 | (3) |
|
Fuel Hedgers: Lottery Tickets and Spring Cleaning |
|
|
193 | (1) |
|
|
194 | (1) |
|
|
195 | (1) |
|
|
195 | (3) |
|
Credit Risk and Counterparty Risk |
|
|
196 | (2) |
|
|
198 | (1) |
|
Potential Future Exposure |
|
|
198 | (1) |
|
Measurement of Counterparty Risk for a Portfolio of Trades |
|
|
198 | (4) |
|
|
198 | (2) |
|
Common PFE Misconceptions and Pitfalls |
|
|
200 | (2) |
|
Credit Exposure Optimization Techniques |
|
|
202 | (4) |
|
Bilateral Netting Agreements |
|
|
202 | (1) |
|
|
203 | (1) |
|
CSA Negotiations - Key Considerations |
|
|
203 | (3) |
|
Funding Valuation Adjustment |
|
|
206 | (3) |
|
|
207 | (2) |
|
|
209 | (1) |
|
The Price of Counterparty Credit Risk |
|
|
209 | (5) |
|
Credit Derivatives and Credit Default Swaps |
|
|
210 | (2) |
|
Credit Valuation Adjustment |
|
|
212 | (1) |
|
|
213 | (1) |
|
Gap Options and Collateralization Agreements |
|
|
213 | (1) |
|
Debt Valuation Adjustment |
|
|
214 | (2) |
|
Fuel Hedgers and Debt Valuation Adjustments |
|
|
214 | (1) |
|
The Case for Bilateral CVA |
|
|
215 | (1) |
|
|
216 | (1) |
|
Counterparty Credit Risk Hedging |
|
|
216 | (1) |
|
|
216 | (1) |
|
Capped Exposure Derivatives |
|
|
217 | (1) |
|
|
217 | (1) |
Chapter 8 Conducting Scenario Analysis |
|
218 | (67) |
|
Scenario Analysis for Vanilla Products |
|
|
220 | (4) |
|
Scenario Analysis for Path-Dependent Products |
|
|
224 | (5) |
|
MTM-Based Scenario Analysis and Potential Future Exposures |
|
|
229 | (1) |
|
Beyond Payoffs and MTMs - Collateralization and Funding Requirement Analysis |
|
|
230 | (1) |
|
|
231 | (2) |
|
|
233 | (52) |
Chapter 9 Financing and Risk Management Bolded Solutions |
|
285 | |
|
Structured Aviation Finance Overview |
|
|
235 | (3) |
|
Airline Financing via Debt and Aircraft Leases |
|
|
238 | (5) |
|
|
239 | (1) |
|
Export Credit Agency Debt |
|
|
240 | (1) |
|
|
240 | (3) |
|
Rationale for Combining Hedging and Financing |
|
|
243 | (2) |
|
Reduction of Default Risk through Hedging |
|
|
244 | (1) |
|
Oil-Linked Financing Structures |
|
|
245 | (7) |
|
Flexible Oil-Insulated Lease |
|
|
246 | (4) |
|
Cancellable Hedged Loans as Interest Cheapeners |
|
|
250 | (2) |
|
|
252 | (6) |
Chapter 10 Applied Fuel Hedging - Case Studies |
|
258 | (19) |
|
Case Study 1: YM Cargo Inc. |
|
|
253 | (7) |
|
|
253 | (1) |
|
|
254 | (1) |
|
|
255 | (1) |
|
Hedge Program Objectives and Scope |
|
|
255 | (1) |
|
Implementation of Hedging |
|
|
256 | (4) |
|
|
260 | (1) |
|
Case Study 2: Worldwide Airlines |
|
|
260 | (16) |
|
Evolution of WWA's Hedging Strategy |
|
|
262 | (2) |
|
Hedging Transactions Executed by WWA |
|
|
264 | (3) |
|
|
267 | (2) |
|
Credit Lines and Collateralization Issues |
|
|
269 | (2) |
|
Restructuring WWA's Portfolio |
|
|
271 | (1) |
|
Counterparty Risk and Funding Considerations for BMC |
|
|
272 | (4) |
|
|
276 | (1) |
Bibliography |
|
277 | (4) |
Index |
|
281 | |