Muutke küpsiste eelistusi

E-raamat: Fuel Hedging And Risk Management - Strategies For Airlines, Shippers And Other Consumers: Strategies for Airlines, Shippers and Other Consumers [Wiley Online]

  • Formaat: 320 pages
  • Sari: The Wiley Finance Series
  • Ilmumisaeg: 01-Apr-2016
  • Kirjastus: John Wiley & Sons Inc
  • ISBN-10: 1119026741
  • ISBN-13: 9781119026747
Teised raamatud teemal:
  • Wiley Online
  • Hind: 105,73 €*
  • * hind, mis tagab piiramatu üheaegsete kasutajate arvuga ligipääsu piiramatuks ajaks
  • Formaat: 320 pages
  • Sari: The Wiley Finance Series
  • Ilmumisaeg: 01-Apr-2016
  • Kirjastus: John Wiley & Sons Inc
  • ISBN-10: 1119026741
  • ISBN-13: 9781119026747
Teised raamatud teemal:
A foundational guide to navigating the new fuel markets

Fuel Hedging and Risk Management: Strategies for Airlines, Shippers and Other Consumersprovides a clear and practical understanding of commodity price dynamics, key fuel hedging techniques, and risk management strategies for the corporate fuel consumer. It covers the commodity markets and derivative instruments in a manner accessible to corporate treasurers, financial officers, risk managers, commodity traders, structurers, as well as quantitative professionals dealing in the energy markets.

With the regime changes and elevated volatility observed in commodity prices over the last decade, fuel consumers are increasingly vulnerable to price shocks. The airline and shipping industries in particular have seen major structural and operational changes, with financial risk management superseding operational management in determining profitability. This book aims to present practical hedging solutions for managing fuel price risks while developing a holistic understanding of the risk management process, starting from hedge programme development and derivative structuring to financing, risk measurement and credit exposure management.

The book includes a wide variety of key topics, including a discussion of commodities and derivatives markets, financial risk analysis of commodity consumers, hedge programme design and implementation, vanilla hedging, and exotic hedging products. Advanced topics covered include commodity price and volatility models, the impact of model choice on exotic derivatives pricing and risk management, as well as credit risk in commodity derivatives transactions and associated CVA costs. The book is unique in providing intuitive guidance on understanding forward curve dynamics and volatility term structure evolution for commodities. It also helps link hedging-related decisions to the financing strategy of a firm, offering integrated solutions that exploit synergies available through bundling. Fully up-to-date and relevant, this useful guide gives you the information you need to successfully deal with volatile fuel prices.

The book illustrates the use of derivatives in real-world situations to manage commodity price risk with the help of term-sheets, payoff profiles, and scenario analysis. Comprehensive case studies illustrate the hedging process from conception to execution and monitoring of hedges in diverse situations, including hedge-portfolio restructuring and bundled financing, and hedging. Readers of this book can expect to:

  • Develop a good understanding of fuel markets, derivatives market conventions, and popular hedge structures.
  • Gain expert insight into all aspects of fuel hedging, price and volatility drivers, and dynamics
  • Learn how to navigate energy prices and guard against volatility by employing effective risk management techniques
  • Manage credit risk associated with commodity derivatives by understanding credit risk calculations, exposure optimization techniques, credit charges, such as CVA, DVA etc.
Preface xiii
Acknowledgments xix
About the Authors xxi
Chapter 1 Energy Commodities and Price Formation 1(22)
Energy as a Strategic Resource
1(2)
Energy as a Tradable Commodity
3(2)
Energy Commodities
5(7)
Crude Oil
5(3)
Oil Products
8(3)
Natural Gas
11(1)
Coal
11(1)
Price Drivers in Energy Markets
12(8)
Geopolitical Risks
12(1)
The Geopolitical Chessboard - The Petrodollar System and Rising China
12(3)
Long-Term Supply and Demand
15(2)
Short-Term Supply and Demand: Supply Chain and Infrastructure
17(2)
Financialization of Commodities
19(1)
Market-Specific Price Drivers
19(1)
Summary
20(3)
Chapter 2 Major Energy Consumers and the Rationale for Fuel Hedging 23(32)
Energy Market Participants
23(4)
Risks Faced by Fuel Consumers - The Case of the Airline Industry
27(8)
Airline Industry - Metrics and Operational Risks
27(3)
Airline Industry - Financial Risks
30(5)
Risks Faced by Other Major Fuel Consumers
35(4)
Shipping Companies
35(2)
Land Transportation
37(1)
Oil Refining, Petrochemicals, and Power Generation
37(1)
Industrial Users of Energy Commodities
38(1)
The Case for Hedging
39(2)
The Effect of Hedging on Airline Stock Price Volatility
39(2)
Commodity Derivative Markets
41(12)
A Brief History of Commodity Markets
42(1)
Commodity Spot Markets and the Need for Standardization
43(1)
Forward Contracts
44(1)
Futures Contracts
45(5)
Option Contracts
50(3)
Summary
53(1)
Appendix A
54(1)
Chapter 3 Developing Fuel Hedging Strategies 55(22)
The Rationale for Commodity Hedging
55(2)
Developing a Fuel Hedging Program
57(1)
Risk Identification and Assessment
57(3)
Types of Risk
58(1)
Risk Identification
59(1)
Forecasting Prices and Conducting Simulations
59(1)
Articulating the Firm's Risk Appetite
60(1)
Setting Objectives for Fuel Hedging and the Scope of Hedging
60(2)
Identifying Risk Managers within the Organization
61(1)
Determining the Scope of the Hedge Program
61(1)
Implementation of Hedging
62(6)
Selecting the Fuel Cost Management Method
62(1)
Identifying the Underlying to Hedge with and Basis Risk
63(3)
Quantity and Tenor of Hedging
66(1)
Selection of Instruments for Hedging
67(1)
Market Risk
68(1)
Management of the Unwanted Risks of a Portfolio
68(2)
Credit Risk
68(1)
Liquidity Risk
69(1)
Operational Risk
69(1)
Legal and Reputational Risk
70(1)
Monitoring and Calibration of the Hedging Program
70(1)
Template for a Risk Management Policy
71(1)
The Airline Industry - Trends in Fuel Risk Management
71(4)
Magnitude of Fuel Price Risk
71(2)
Underlyings and Hedging Instruments
73(1)
Quantity and Tenor of Hedging
74(1)
Recent Developments
75(1)
Summary
75(2)
Chapter 4 Shipping and Airlines - Basics of Fuel Hedging 77(36)
Spot-Forward Relationships
77(5)
Theories on the Shape of Forward Curves
78(1)
Spot-Forward Relationships for Investment Assets
79(1)
Spot-Forward Relationships for Commodities
80(1)
Spot and Futures Volatility
81(1)
Options
82(4)
Call and Put Options
83(1)
Put-Call Parity
84(1)
Option-Based Hedging for a Shipping Company
85(1)
Implied Volatility and the Black-Scholes Model
86(3)
The Black-Scholes-Merton Model
88(1)
Black's Model for Pricing Options on Futures Contracts
89(1)
The Greeks
89(7)
Delta
90(2)
Gamma
92(1)
Theta
92(2)
Vega
94(1)
Rho
94(1)
Higher-Order Greeks
95(1)
Black's Model Option Greeks
95(1)
Asian Swaps and Options
96(1)
Asian Swap-Based Hedging for a Shipping Company
97(1)
Option Structures
97(7)
Call Spreads and Put Spreads
97(2)
Collars, Three-Ways, and Calendar Spread Options
99(1)
Straddles, Strangles, and Butterflies
100(2)
Capped Forwards
102(1)
Capped Swap Usage for a Shipping Company
103(1)
Derivatives Pricing
104(8)
Stochastic Processes for Asset Prices - An Introduction
104(1)
Brownian Motion and Wiener Processes
104(2)
Ito's Lemma
106(1)
Option Pricing Using the Black-Scholes-Merton Formula
107(2)
Asian Option Pricing
109(3)
Summary
112(1)
Chapter 5 Advanced Hedging and Forward Curve Dynamics 113(28)
Swap and Vanilla Option-Based Structures
113(5)
Zero-Cost Structures and the Usage of Options
114(1)
Leveraged Swaps
114(2)
Capped Swaps
116(1)
Floored Swaps
117(1)
The Volatility Surface
118(1)
Multi-option Structures
119(3)
Zero-Cost Collar
120(1)
Three-Ways
120(1)
Risk Reversals and their Hedging
121(1)
Early-Expiry Options and Instantaneous Volatility Term Structures
122(5)
The Samuelson Effect and the Storage Theory
122(1)
Implied Volatility of Energy Futures Contracts
123(1)
Early-Expiry Profile Construction
124(3)
Commodity Swaptions and Extendible Swaps
127(6)
Usage of Commodity Swaptions and the Reasons for their Popularity
127(1)
Swaption vs. a Basket of Options
128(5)
Understanding Commodity Futures Term Structures
133(2)
The Normal Backwardation or Keynesian Theory
133(1)
The Theory of Storage
134(1)
Term-Structure Models
135(5)
Schwartz's One-Factor Model
135(1)
Schwartz's Two-Factor Model
136(1)
Gabillon's Model
137(1)
Gabillon's Stochastic Equation for Futures
138(1)
Early-Expiry Profile Using Gabillon's Model
139(1)
Importance of Early-Expiry Profile for Exotic Products
139(1)
Summary
140(1)
Chapter 6 Exotic Hedging and Volatility Dynamics 141(50)
Extendible Option Structures
142(8)
Extendible Collar
142(1)
Extendible Three-Ways
143(1)
Cancellable - Extendible Parity
144(2)
Pricing Extendible Option Structures
146(4)
Volatility Models
150(2)
Stochastic Volatility Models
150(2)
Barrier Option-Based Structures
152(8)
Knock-Out Options and Knock-In Options
152(2)
Relationship between KI and KO Options
154(1)
Knock-Out Swaps
154(1)
Airbag Structure
154(1)
KIKOs and Combinations of KI and KO Options
155(1)
Accumulator Structures
156(1)
European or Asian-Style Barrier Options
157(1)
Barrier Payouts and Non-linearity - Digital Options and Replication
157(3)
The Reflection Principle
160(8)
Barrier Options Under the Black-Scholes Framework
161(2)
Put-Call Symmetry
163(1)
MTM Analysis of Barrier Options Under the Black-Scholes Framework
163(2)
Pricing and Risk Management of Barriers with Real-World Constraints
165(2)
Barrier Options on a Nearby Futures Contract
167(1)
Local Volatility Models
168(2)
Bermudan Extendible Structures
170(10)
Valuation of Bermudan Extendibles
174(1)
Longstaff-Schwartz Method and Exercise Boundaries
174(3)
Extendible vs. Auto-callable Transactions
177(1)
Bermudan Extendibles and the Forward Skew
177(2)
The Inverse Leverage Effect in Commodities Markets
179(1)
Target Redemption Structures
180(7)
Target Redemptions and the 2008 Debacle
182(1)
Defining Leverage
183(1)
Target Redemption Pricing and Risk Management
184(1)
The Mean-Reversion Trap
185(1)
Target Redemption and Trading Risks
186(1)
Sticky Strike and Sticky Delta
187(3)
Sticky Strike Approach
187(1)
Sticky Delta or Sticky Moneyness
188(1)
Gamma/Theta Ratio
188(2)
Summary
190(1)
Chapter 7 Fuel Hedging and Counterparty Risk 191(27)
The Importance of Valuation and Transaction Monitoring
191(1)
Market Risk Management
192(3)
Fuel Hedgers: Lottery Tickets and Spring Cleaning
193(1)
Value at Risk
194(1)
Liquidity Risk
195(1)
Counterparty Risk
195(3)
Credit Risk and Counterparty Risk
196(2)
Expected Exposure
198(1)
Potential Future Exposure
198(1)
Measurement of Counterparty Risk for a Portfolio of Trades
198(4)
Peak PFE
198(2)
Common PFE Misconceptions and Pitfalls
200(2)
Credit Exposure Optimization Techniques
202(4)
Bilateral Netting Agreements
202(1)
Credit Support Annexes
203(1)
CSA Negotiations - Key Considerations
203(3)
Funding Valuation Adjustment
206(3)
Fuel Hedgers and FVA
207(2)
The FVA Debate
209(1)
The Price of Counterparty Credit Risk
209(5)
Credit Derivatives and Credit Default Swaps
210(2)
Credit Valuation Adjustment
212(1)
Common CVA Mis-steps
213(1)
Gap Options and Collateralization Agreements
213(1)
Debt Valuation Adjustment
214(2)
Fuel Hedgers and Debt Valuation Adjustments
214(1)
The Case for Bilateral CVA
215(1)
Wrong-Way Risk
216(1)
Counterparty Credit Risk Hedging
216(1)
Contingent CDS
216(1)
Capped Exposure Derivatives
217(1)
Summary
217(1)
Chapter 8 Conducting Scenario Analysis 218(67)
Scenario Analysis for Vanilla Products
220(4)
Scenario Analysis for Path-Dependent Products
224(5)
MTM-Based Scenario Analysis and Potential Future Exposures
229(1)
Beyond Payoffs and MTMs - Collateralization and Funding Requirement Analysis
230(1)
Hedge Effectiveness
231(2)
Summary
233(52)
Chapter 9 Financing and Risk Management Bolded Solutions 285
Structured Aviation Finance Overview
235(3)
Airline Financing via Debt and Aircraft Leases
238(5)
Term Loans
239(1)
Export Credit Agency Debt
240(1)
Leases
240(3)
Rationale for Combining Hedging and Financing
243(2)
Reduction of Default Risk through Hedging
244(1)
Oil-Linked Financing Structures
245(7)
Flexible Oil-Insulated Lease
246(4)
Cancellable Hedged Loans as Interest Cheapeners
250(2)
Summary
252(6)
Chapter 10 Applied Fuel Hedging - Case Studies 258(19)
Case Study 1: YM Cargo Inc.
253(7)
Business Risks
253(1)
Operational Mitigants
254(1)
Risk Appetite
255(1)
Hedge Program Objectives and Scope
255(1)
Implementation of Hedging
256(4)
Portfolio Monitoring
260(1)
Case Study 2: Worldwide Airlines
260(16)
Evolution of WWA's Hedging Strategy
262(2)
Hedging Transactions Executed by WWA
264(3)
Hedge Portfolio Analysis
267(2)
Credit Lines and Collateralization Issues
269(2)
Restructuring WWA's Portfolio
271(1)
Counterparty Risk and Funding Considerations for BMC
272(4)
Summary
276(1)
Bibliography 277(4)
Index 281
SIMO M. DAFIR is a Managing Director at Volguard, a financial consulting firm specializing in Capital Markets, Wealth Management and Derivatives. He has over fourteen years of experience during which he has held senior positions in a number of major international banks in Hong Kong and Singapore. He was the Regional Head of Commodity Structuring at Standard Chartered Bank, Head of Commodity Exotics and Hybrids at Merrill Lynch Asia, and Trader of Credit Derivatives at Credit Suisse. He is also Professor of Global Financial Markets at Sorbonne Assas International Law School and an expert witness for financial markets litigations. Dafir started his career in Aerospace and Telecom at the European Space Agency and Alcatel. He holds an MBA from INSEAD, a Post Graduate Research Degree from the National Polytechnic Institute of Toulouse, an MSc in Automation from ENSEEIHT and a Bachelor's degree in Mathematics.

VISHNU N. GAJJALA is a commodity derivatives expert at Volguard, where he oversees the financial market analytics business. He has held positions in commodities structuring and sales at institutions including Standard Chartered Bank and Merrill Lynch, where he developed customized strategies for commodity hedgers and investors, including airlines, mining companies, trading houses, private banks and sovereign wealth funds. He holds a Bachelor's degree in Electrical Engineering from IIT Madras and an MBA from IIM Bangalore. Vishnu currently resides in Singapore.