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E-raamat: Global Dynamics - Approaches from Complexity Science: Approaches from Complexity Science [Wiley Online]

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Raamatu kodulehekülg: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1002/9781118937464

A world model: economies, trade, migration, security and development aid.

This bookprovides the analytical capability to understand and explore the dynamics of globalisation. It is anchored in economic input-output models of over 200 countries and their relationships through trade, migration, security and development aid. The tools of complexity science are brought to bear and mathematical and computer models are developed both for the elements and for an integrated whole. Models are developed at a variety of scales ranging from the global and international trade through a European model of inter-sub-regional migration to piracy in the Gulf and the London riots of 2011. The models embrace the changing technology of international shipping, the impacts of migration on economic development along with changing patterns of military expenditure and development aid. A unique contribution is the level of spatial disaggregation which presents each of 200+ countries and their mutual interdependencies – along with some finer scale analyses of cities and regions.  This is the first global model which offers this depth of detail with fully work-out models, these provide tools for policy making at national, European and global scales.

Global dynamics:

  • Presents in depth models of global dynamics.
  • Provides a world economic model of 200+ countries and their interactions through trade, migration, security and development aid.
  • Provides pointers to the deployment of analytical capability through modelling in policy development.
  • Features a variety of models that constitute a formidable toolkit for analysis and policy development.
  • Offers a demonstration of the practicalities of complexity science concepts.

This book is for practitioners and policy analysts as well as those interested in mathematical model building and complexity science as well as advanced undergraduate and postgraduate level students.

Notes on Contributors xiii
Acknowledgements xvii
Part I Global Dynamics And The Tools Of Complexity Science
1 Global Dynamics and the Tools of Complexity Science
3(8)
Alan Wilson
Reference
7(4)
Part II Trade And Economic Development
2 The Global Trade System and Its Evolution
11(15)
Simone Caschili
Francesca Medda
2.1 The Evolution of the Shipping and Ports' System
11(1)
2.2 Analyses of the Cargo Ship Network
12(3)
2.3 A Complex Adaptive Systems (CASs) Perspective
15(5)
2.4 Conclusions: The Benefits of a Systems Perspective
20(1)
References
21(2)
Appendix
23(3)
A.1 Complexity Science and Complex Adaptive Systems: Key Characteristics
23(1)
A.1.1 Four Properties
24(1)
A.1.2 Three Mechanisms
25(1)
3 An Interdependent Multi-layer Model for Trade
26(25)
Simone Caschili
Francesca Medda
Alan Wilson
3.1 Introduction
26(1)
3.2 The Interdependent Multi-layer Model: Vertical Integration
27(3)
3.3 Model Layers
30(4)
3.3.1 Economic Layer
30(3)
3.3.2 Social and Cultural Layer (Socio-cultural)
33(1)
3.3.3 Physical Layer
34(1)
3.4 The Workings of the Model
34(1)
3.5 Model Calibration
35(4)
3.6 Result 1: Steady State
39(3)
3.7 Result 2: Estimation and Propagation of Shocks in the IMM
42(6)
3.8 Discussion and Conclusions
48(1)
References
48(3)
4 A Global Inter-country Economic Model Based on Linked Input—Output Models
51(24)
Robert G. Levy
Thomas P. Oleron Evans
Alan Wilson
4.1 Introduction
51(1)
4.2 Existing Global Economic Models
52(1)
4.3 Description of the Model
53(5)
4.3.1 Outline
53(1)
4.3.2 Introduction to Input—Output Tables
53(2)
4.3.3 A Single Country Model
55(2)
4.3.4 An International Trade Model
57(1)
4.3.5 Setting Model Coefficients from Data
58(1)
4.4 Solving the Model
58(3)
4.4.1 The Leontief Equation
58(1)
4.4.2 The Drawbacks of Mathematical Elegance
59(1)
4.4.3 Algorithm for an Iterative Solution
59(2)
4.5 Analysis
61(6)
4.5.1 Introduction
61(1)
4.5.2 Simple Modelling Approaches
61(3)
4.5.3 A Unified Network Approach
64(3)
4.5.4 Comparison with a Multi-region Input—Output Model
67(1)
4.6 Conclusions
67(2)
Acknowledgements
69(1)
References
69(2)
Appendix
71(4)
A.1 Modelling the 'Rest of the World'
71(1)
A.2 Services Trade Data
71(1)
A.2.1 Importing Own Exports
72(1)
A.2.2 The Rest of the World for Sectors
72(3)
Part III Migration
5 Global Migration Modelling: A Review of Key Policy Needs and Research Centres
75(22)
Adam Dennett
Pablo Mateos
5.1 Introduction
75(1)
5.2 Policy and Migration Research
76(8)
5.2.1 Key Policy Issues in Contemporary Migration Research
76(5)
5.2.2 Linking Policy Issues to Modelling Challenges
81(1)
5.2.3 Policy-related Research Questions for Modellers
82(1)
5.2.4 Other International Migration Modelling Research
83(1)
5.3 Conclusion
84(1)
References
84(3)
Appendix
87(10)
A.1 United Kingdom
87(3)
A.2 Rest of Europe
90(4)
A.3 Rest of the World
94(3)
6 Estimating Inter-regional Migration in Europe
97(28)
Adam Dennett
Alan Wilson
6.1 Introduction
97(1)
6.2 The Spatial System and the Modelling Challenge
98(2)
6.3 Biproportional Fitting Modelling Methodology
100(10)
6.3.1 Model (i)
104(1)
6.3.2 Model (ii)
105(1)
6.3.3 Model (iii)
105(3)
6.3.4 Model (iv)
108(1)
6.3.5 Model (v)
109(1)
6.3.6 Model (vi)
110(1)
6.4 Model Parameter Calibration
110(3)
6.5 Model Experiments
113(5)
6.6 Results
118(3)
6.7 Conclusions and Comments on the New Framework for Estimating Inter-regional, Inter-country Migration Flows in Europe
121(2)
References
123(2)
7 Estimating an Annual Time Series of Global Migration Flows — An Alternative Methodology for Using Migrant Stock Data
125(20)
Adam Dennett
7.1 Introduction
125(4)
7.2 Methodology
129(6)
7.2.1 Introduction
129(1)
7.2.2 Calculating Migration Probabilities
129(1)
7.2.3 Calculating Total Migrants in the Global System
130(3)
7.2.4 Generating a Consistent Time Series of Migration Probabilities
133(2)
7.2.5 Producing Annual Bilateral Estimates
135(1)
7.3 Results and Validation
135(3)
7.3.1 Introduction
135(1)
7.3.2 IMEM comparison
135(1)
7.3.3 UN Flow Data Comparison
136(2)
7.4 Discussion
138(2)
7.5 Conclusions
140(1)
References
140(5)
Part IV Security
8 Conflict Modelling: Spatial Interaction as Threat
145(14)
Peter Baudains
Alan Wilson
8.1 Introduction
145(1)
8.2 Conflict Intensity: Space—Time Patterning of Events
146(2)
8.3 Understanding Conflict Onset: Simulation-based Models
148(2)
8.4 Forecasting Global Conflict Hotspots
150(1)
8.5 A Spatial Model of Threat
150(3)
8.6 Discussion: The Use of a Spatial Threat Measure in Models of Conflict
153(4)
8.6.1 Threat in Models for Operational Decision-Making
153(1)
8.6.2 Threat in a Model of Conflict Escalation
154(2)
8.6.3 Threat in Modelling Global Military Expenditure
156(1)
8.6.4 Summary
156(1)
References
157(2)
9 Riots
159(16)
Peter Baudains
9.1 Introduction
159(1)
9.2 The 2011 Riots in London
160(6)
9.2.1 Space—Time Interaction
162(2)
9.2.2 Journey to Crime
164(1)
9.2.3 Characteristics of Rioters
165(1)
9.3 Data-Driven Modelling of Riot Diffusion
166(3)
9.4 Statistical Modelling of Target Choice
169(2)
9.5 A Generative Model of the Riots
171(1)
9.6 Discussion
172(1)
References
173(2)
10 Rebellions
175(12)
Peter Baudains
Jyoti Belur
Alex Braithwaite
Elio Marchione
Shane D. Johnson
10.1 Introduction
175(1)
10.2 Data
176(1)
10.3 Hawkes model
177(4)
10.4 Results
181(2)
10.5 Discussion
183(2)
References
185(2)
11 Spatial Interaction as Threat: Modelling Maritime Piracy
187(8)
Elio Marchione
Alan Wilson
11.1 The Model
187(1)
11.2 The Test Case
188(1)
11.3 Uses of the Model
189(2)
Reference
191(1)
Appendix
192(3)
A.1 Volume Field of Type k Ship
192(1)
A.2 Volume Field of Naval Units
193(1)
A.3 Pirates Ports and Mother Ships
193(2)
12 Space—Time Modelling of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq
195(19)
Alex Braithwaite
Shane Johnson
12.1 Introduction
195(1)
12.2 Counterinsurgency in Iraq
196(4)
12.3 Counterinsurgency Data
200(2)
12.4 Diagnoses of Space, Time and Space—Time Distributions
202(8)
12.4.1 Introduction
202(1)
12.4.2 Spatial Distribution
202(1)
12.4.3 Temporal Distribution
203(1)
12.4.4 Space—Time Distribution
203(3)
12.4.5 Univariate Knox Analysis
206(2)
12.4.6 Bivariate Knox Analysis
208(2)
12.5 Concluding Comments
210(2)
References
212(2)
13 International Information Flows, Government Response and the Contagion of Ethnic Conflict
214(19)
Janina Beiser
13.1 Introduction
214(2)
13.2 Global Information Flows
216(4)
13.3 The Effect of Information Flows on Armed Civil Conflict
220(5)
13.4 The Effect of Information Flows on Government Repression
225(1)
13.5 Conclusion
226(1)
References
226(3)
Appendix
229(4)
Part V Aid And Development
14 International Development Aid: A Complex System
233(24)
Belinda Wu
14.1 Introduction: A Complex Systems' Perspective
233(1)
14.2 The International Development Aid System: Definitions
234(1)
14.3 Features of International Development Aid as a Complex System
235(3)
14.3.1 Introduction
235(1)
14.3.2 Non-linearity
235(2)
14.3.3 Connectedness
237(1)
14.3.4 Self-Adapting and Self-Organising
238(1)
14.3.5 Emergence
238(1)
14.4 Complexity and Approaches to Research
238(4)
14.4.1 Organisations
238(1)
14.4.2 The Range of Issues
239(1)
14.4.3 Research Approaches
240(2)
14.4.4 The Complexity Science Approach
242(1)
14.5 The Assessment of the Effectiveness of International Development Aid
242(6)
14.5.1 Whether Aid Can Be Effective
242(2)
14.5.2 Complexity in the Measurement of Aid Effectiveness
244(1)
14.5.3 Complexity in Methods/Standards of Measurement of Aid Effectiveness
245(1)
14.5.4 Standardising Aid Effectiveness
246(2)
14.6 Relationships and Interactions
248(3)
14.6.1 Relationships between Donor and Recipient Countries
248(1)
14.6.2 Relationships between Aid and Other Systems
249(2)
14.7 Conclusions
251(1)
References
252(5)
15 Model Building for the Complex System of International Development Aid
257(14)
Belinda Wu
Sean Hanna
Alan Wilson
15.1 Introduction
257(1)
15.2 Data Collection
258(5)
15.2.1 Introduction
258(1)
15.2.2 Aid Data
258(2)
15.2.3 Trade Data
260(1)
15.2.4 Security Data
261(1)
15.2.5 Migration Data
261(1)
15.2.6 Geographical Data
261(1)
15.2.7 Data Selected
262(1)
15.3 Model Building
263(5)
15.3.1 Modelling Approach
263(1)
15.3.2 Alesina and Dollar Model
263(1)
15.3.3 Our Models
264(3)
15.3.4 Model B: Introducing Donor Interactions and Modification of the Model
267(1)
15.3.5 Findings from Model B
267(1)
15.3.6 Model C: Introducing Interactions with Trade System and Further Modification of the Model
267(1)
15.3.7 Findings from Model C
268(1)
15.4 Discussion and Future Work
268(1)
References
269(2)
16 Aid Allocation: A Complex Perspective
271(22)
Robert J. Downes
Steven R. Bishop
16.1 Aid Allocation Networks
271(2)
16.1.1 Introduction
271(1)
16.1.2 Why Networks?
272(1)
16.1.3 Donor Motivation in Aid Allocation
273(1)
16.2 Quantifying Aid via a Mathematical Model
273(4)
16.2.1 Overview of Approach
273(1)
16.2.2 Basic Set-Up
274(1)
16.2.3 The Network of Nations
275(1)
16.2.4 Preference Functions
275(1)
16.2.5 Specifying the Preference Functions
275(1)
16.2.6 Recipient Selection by Donors
276(1)
16.3 Application of the Model
277(10)
16.3.1 Introduction
277(1)
16.3.2 Scenario
1. No Feedback
277(4)
16.3.3 Scenario
2. Bandwagon Feedback
281(2)
16.3.4 Scenario
3. Aid Effectiveness Feedback
283(1)
16.3.5 Aid Usage Mechanism
284(2)
16.3.6 Application
286(1)
16.3.7 Conclusions
287(1)
16.4 Remarks
287(1)
Acknowledgements
288(1)
References
288(2)
Appendix
290(3)
A.1 Common Functional Definitions
290(3)
Part VI Global Dynamics: An Integrated Model And Policy Challenges
17 An Integrated Model
293(34)
Robert G. Levy
17.1 Introduction
293(1)
17.2 Adding Migration
294(10)
17.2.1 Introduction
294(1)
17.2.2 The Familiarity Effect
295(6)
17.2.3 Consumption Similarity
301(3)
17.2.4 Conclusions
304(1)
17.3 Adding Aid
304(12)
17.3.1 Introduction
304(1)
17.3.2 Estimating Exportness
305(1)
17.3.3 Modelling Approach
306(1)
17.3.4 Results
306(8)
17.3.5 Conclusions
314(2)
17.4 Adding Security
316(7)
17.4.1 Introduction
316(1)
17.4.2 Literature Review
316(1)
17.4.3 Measures of Threat and the Global Dynamics Model
317(1)
17.4.4 Trade during Changing Security Conditions
318(1)
17.4.5 An Experiment of Increased Threat in the Global Dynamics Model
318(4)
17.4.6 Conclusions
322(1)
17.5 Concluding Comments
323(1)
References
324(3)
Index 327
Alan Wilson, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, UK. His research interests have been concerned with many aspects of mathematical modelling and the use of models in planning in relation to all aspects of cities and regions - including demography, economic input-output modelling, transport and locational structures. He was responsible for the introduction of a number of model building techniques which are now in common use internationally. These models have been widely used in areas such as transport planning. He made important contributions through the rigorous deployment of accounts' concepts in demography and economic modelling. In recent years he has been particularly concerned with applications of dynamical systems theory in relation to the task of modelling the evolution of urban structure initially described in Catastrophe theory and bifurcation: applications to urban and regional systems. His current research, supported by ESRC and EPSRC grants of around ?3M, is on the evolution of cities and the dynamics of global trade and migration.
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