Foreword |
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iii | |
Preface |
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iv | |
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Section I History of Geometrical Diffusion Model |
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1 The Dawn of Reaction-Diffusion Dynamics |
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2 | (16) |
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1.1 Fisher's Advantageous Genes |
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3 | (3) |
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3 | (1) |
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3 | (1) |
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1.1.1.2 Autonomy---Background Independence |
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4 | (1) |
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4 | (1) |
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1.1.3 Do Genes Really Propagate? |
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5 | (1) |
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1.2 Skellam's Muskrats Diffusion Model |
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6 | (1) |
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6 | (1) |
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7 | (7) |
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1.3.1 Concrete Record of the Diffusion Process |
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8 | (2) |
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1.3.2 Limitations of Hagerstrand's Work |
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10 | (1) |
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1.3.2.1 Absence of a Mathematical Formulation |
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10 | (1) |
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1.3.3 Entities that Spread in Space |
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11 | (3) |
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1.3.3.1 Information does not Diffuse |
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14 | (1) |
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1.4 Delay in Human Conscious Sensory Awareness |
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14 | (2) |
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1.4.0.1 Interpretation of Conscious Motivations is Tedious |
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15 | (1) |
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1.4.1 Geographical Dimensions |
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15 | (1) |
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1.5 A.M. Turing, Hodgkin, and Huxley---Autonomous Pattern Formation |
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16 | (2) |
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2 Decline of the Number of Children |
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18 | (50) |
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2.1 Fertility Decline---Demographic Transition? |
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18 | (7) |
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2.1.1 Early Diffusionists |
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18 | (1) |
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2.1.1.1 Diffusion of Lower Fertility |
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19 | (4) |
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2.1.2 Reaction-Diffusion System |
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23 | (1) |
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2.1.2.1 Variances in Fertility Decline are Proportional to Time During the Initial Stage |
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24 | (1) |
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2.1.2.2 Diffusion is not Imitation |
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24 | (1) |
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2.2 Search for a Singularity Origin of Fertility Decline in Europe |
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25 | (7) |
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25 | (1) |
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2.2.1.1 Velocity for One-Dimensional Space |
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25 | (3) |
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2.2.1.2 Velocity in Two-Dimensional Space |
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28 | (1) |
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2.2.2 The Year a Singularity Appeared |
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28 | (1) |
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2.2.2.1 Differences in Time from Isomorphism |
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29 | (1) |
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2.2.2.2 Where was the Singularity? |
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30 | (1) |
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31 | (1) |
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2.3 Diffusion of Fertility Decline is Background Independent |
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32 | (2) |
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2.3.1 Why did the Singularity Occur at it Lot-et-Garonne? |
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33 | (1) |
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2.3.1.1 Probability of Disintegration of the Balance |
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33 | (1) |
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2.4 Visualized Fertility Decline Process in France |
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34 | (18) |
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2.4.1 Delay of Fertility Decline in Brittany |
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34 | (7) |
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2.4.1.1 Effect of Religion |
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41 | (1) |
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2.4.1.2 Linguistic Difference Assumption |
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42 | (1) |
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2.4.1.3 Inadequacy of Economic Factors |
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42 | (2) |
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2.4.1.4 System of Inheritance |
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44 | (1) |
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2.4.2 Differing Laplacian Ac |
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45 | (1) |
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2.4.2.1 Simulation of the Peninsula |
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46 | (2) |
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2.4.2.2 Other Demonstrations |
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48 | (2) |
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2.4.3 Speculations for Coefficients and Time-Space Scale |
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50 | (1) |
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2.4.3.1 Rounding Errors Cause a Delay in the Wave |
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51 | (1) |
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2.4.3.2 Lattice Space Errors |
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51 | (1) |
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2.4.3.3 Section Conclusions |
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51 | (1) |
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2.5 Decline of Number of Children in Japan |
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52 | (2) |
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2.5.1 Graphical Representation of the Decline of the Number of Children in the Kanto Area |
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52 | (2) |
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2.6 Diffusion as a Fire Leap |
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54 | (2) |
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2.7 Fertility Decline in Brazil |
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56 | (1) |
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2.7.1 Diffusion from Several Regions (Points) |
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56 | (1) |
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2.7.1.1 Map from 1991 and Ratio of the Total Area of Diffusion |
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56 | (2) |
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2.7.1.2 Periods between 1991--2000 and 2000--2010 |
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58 | (1) |
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58 | (3) |
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2.7.3 Conclusions Based on the Analysis of Brazil |
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61 | (1) |
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2.8 Numerical Consideration of the Geographical Obstacles in the Model |
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62 | (2) |
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62 | (1) |
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2.8.1.1 Obstacle Size must Exceed a Quantity |
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62 | (2) |
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2.8.1.2 Laplacian is Extremely Small |
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64 | (1) |
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64 | (4) |
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Section II Marriage Function in High Dimensional Space |
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3 History of the Marriage Function |
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68 | (17) |
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3.1 Discovery of the Marriage Function |
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68 | (7) |
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3.1.1 Uniformity of Marriage Function |
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69 | (1) |
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3.1.1.1 Adjustment of Scale and Origin |
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69 | (2) |
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3.1.2 Flaws of Coale--McNeil Distribution |
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71 | (1) |
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3.1.2.1 Convolution Model |
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72 | (1) |
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3.1.2.2 Vital Gap---Never Asymptotic to 0 |
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72 | (1) |
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73 | (1) |
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3.1.2.4 Why Does the Marriage Function Differ Across Cultures? |
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74 | (1) |
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3.1.2.5 Why are They not Dynamic? |
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75 | (1) |
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75 | (4) |
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3.2.1 Definition of the Hernes Function |
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76 | (1) |
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3.2.2 Advantages of the Hernes Function |
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76 | (1) |
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3.2.3 Flaws of the Hernes Function |
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77 | (1) |
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3.2.3.1 Asymptotic Comparison |
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78 | (1) |
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3.2.4 Conclusions on the Hernes Function |
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79 | (1) |
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3.3 Other Marriage Functions |
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79 | (4) |
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79 | (1) |
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3.3.2 Generalized logΓ Distribution |
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80 | (1) |
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80 | (2) |
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82 | (1) |
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3.3.5 Problem with Existing Marriage Functions |
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82 | (1) |
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3.4 Do Marriages Occur as a Result of our Conscious Choices? |
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83 | (2) |
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3.4.1 Early or Late Marriages: Mere Individual Differences? |
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83 | (1) |
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3.4.1.1 Lifetime or Survival Functions are not Marriage Functions |
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83 | (1) |
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3.4.2 Explaining the Dynamics of the Marriage Function |
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84 | (1) |
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4 Marriage Function as an Integral Function |
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85 | (21) |
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85 | (7) |
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4.1.1 The More Marriages Evident within a Space, the Higher the Marriage Occurrences |
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86 | (1) |
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4.1.1.1 ∫t0 F(t)(dt) is not Social Pressure |
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86 | (2) |
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4.1.1.2 Monotonic Decreasing Element |
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88 | (1) |
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4.1.1.3 Monotonic Decrease in the Never-Married Segment |
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88 | (1) |
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4.1.2 Formulation of an Integral Equation |
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89 | (1) |
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4.1.2.1 Characteristics of SDSMF---Thicker Right Tail and Higher Kurtosis |
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89 | (1) |
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4.1.2.2 Background Independence of Marriage Occurrences |
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90 | (1) |
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4.1.3 Fit of SDSMF to the Data |
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91 | (1) |
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4.1.3.1 Inflection Point Method |
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91 | (1) |
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4.1.3.2 Estimation Results |
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91 | (1) |
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4.2 Decisive Evidence of SDSMF |
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92 | (4) |
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4.2.1 A Good Theory can Predict Some Theoretical Values |
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92 | (2) |
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94 | (1) |
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4.2.2 Comparing SDSMF to the Coale--McNeil and Double Exponential Distributions |
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95 | (1) |
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4.2.2.1 Decisive Discriminant Test |
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95 | (1) |
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4.2.2.2 Proportion of Ever-Married Population for the 1960 Cohort |
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95 | (1) |
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4.3 Testing SDSMF in Other Countries |
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96 | (5) |
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4.3.1 Testing SDSMF using Cohorts within the Swiss Population |
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96 | (1) |
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4.3.1.1 Similarities to the Japanese Cases |
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96 | (2) |
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4.3.2 Marriage at Young Ages: The Second Decisive Discriminant Test |
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98 | (1) |
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4.3.2.1 How Often do Marriages at Young Ages Occur? |
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99 | (1) |
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4.3.3 Test using Algerian Data |
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100 | (1) |
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4.4 Marriage Function Tests Using Kurtosis |
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101 | (2) |
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4.4.1 Definition of Kurtosis |
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101 | (1) |
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4.4.1.1 For Discreet Distribution |
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101 | (1) |
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4.4.1.2 Kurtosis of Sample |
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102 | (1) |
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4.4.1.3 Calculation of Kurtosis of each Marriage Function |
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102 | (1) |
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4.5 Late-Marriage Trend in Japan from SDSMF |
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103 | (3) |
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4.5.1 Earlier-than-Expected Outset of Late-Marriage Trend |
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103 | (1) |
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4.5.2 Late-Marriage Trend from the Perspective of Marriage Functions |
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104 | (1) |
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4.5.2.1 Temporal Backward or Stationary Trends |
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104 | (1) |
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4.5.3 Limitations of SDSMF |
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105 | (1) |
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5 Marriage Function in High-Dimensional Space |
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106 | (37) |
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5.1 Diffusion of Late-Marriage Trend |
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106 | (1) |
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107 | (11) |
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5.2.1 Unification of Cohort and Period |
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111 | (1) |
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112 | (2) |
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114 | (2) |
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5.2.2.2 Baby Boom as a Chain Reaction |
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116 | (1) |
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5.2.2.3 Boomlet or No Boom Following World War I |
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117 | (1) |
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5.3 Extension to Geographical Dimensions |
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118 | (12) |
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5.3.1 Purposes of Extension |
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118 | (1) |
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5.3.2 Marriage Function as a Hypersurface |
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119 | (1) |
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119 | (1) |
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5.3.3 Marriage Function in Tokyo |
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120 | (1) |
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5.3.3.1 Fit Marriage Function to Observed Data |
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121 | (2) |
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123 | (1) |
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124 | (1) |
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125 | (1) |
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126 | (1) |
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127 | (2) |
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129 | (1) |
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129 | (1) |
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129 | (1) |
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129 | (1) |
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5.4 Drawing the Three-Dimensional Surface via Interpolation |
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130 | (2) |
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5.5 Time-Space Pattern Caused by Geographical Extension |
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132 | (11) |
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5.5.1 Fundamental Instability |
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133 | (2) |
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5.5.2 Brief Convergence of Patterned Undulations |
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135 | (1) |
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5.5.2.1 Initial Heterogeneity |
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136 | (1) |
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137 | (2) |
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5.5.2.3 Qualitative Analysis of the Alteration of the Hypersurface |
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139 | (1) |
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5.5.3 Fixed Undulated Surfaces Remain |
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140 | (3) |
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6 To Alter Marriage Function |
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143 | (23) |
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6.1 Dynamics of the Hypersurface |
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144 | (4) |
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6.1.1 Simulation Settings |
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144 | (1) |
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6.1.2 Slight Marriage Delays at Young Ages Caused Every Delay |
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145 | (1) |
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6.1.2.1 Beginning of the Late-Marriage Trend in Japan in 1950 |
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146 | (2) |
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6.2 Constancy of Undulation of Hypersurface |
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148 | (1) |
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6.3 Altering the Hypersurface |
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149 | (5) |
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6.3.1 Flattening Effect vs Ripple Effect |
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150 | (1) |
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6.3.1.1 Ineffectiveness of Raising the Marriage Probability of Older Individuals |
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150 | (1) |
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6.3.2 Quest for a Relatively More Effective Convex Surface |
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151 | (1) |
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6.3.2.1 No Progressive Wave in the Geographical Dimensions |
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152 | (1) |
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6.3.2.2 Progressive Wave in the Age Dimension |
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153 | (1) |
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6.4 Revisiting the Baby Boom from the Perspective of the Extended Marriage Function |
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154 | (9) |
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6.4.1 American Baby Boom---not the Kuznets Cycle |
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154 | (1) |
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6.4.2 Geographical Extension for Radicalizing the Chain Reaction |
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155 | (1) |
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6.4.2.1 Simulation Settings |
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156 | (1) |
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6.4.2.2 How Marriage Probabilities Increase |
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156 | (1) |
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6.4.2.3 Two-Sex Problem---Marriage Squeeze Hypothesis |
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157 | (1) |
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6.4.3 Artificial Baby Boom in High-Dimensional Space |
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158 | (1) |
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6.4.3.1 Simulation Results |
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159 | (2) |
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6.4.4 Effectiveness of the Artificial Baby Boom |
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161 | (1) |
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6.4.4.1 What Increases the Sparsity of Increments? |
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162 | (1) |
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163 | (3) |
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Section III Birth Function in High Dimensional Space |
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7 No Individual Birth Functions Exist |
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166 | (32) |
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7.1 Quasi Linearity of the Expected Number of Children Based on Marriage Duration |
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166 | (7) |
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7.1.1 Stochastic Variable |
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167 | (1) |
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7.1.1.1 Indistinguishability Based on Socioeconomic Conditions |
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168 | (2) |
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7.1.2 (Class) Differential Fertility |
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170 | (1) |
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7.1.2.1 Number of Children---Indefinite Solution |
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170 | (3) |
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7.2 Negation of the Existence of the Function of the Number of Children by the Diagonal Method |
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173 | (2) |
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7.2.1 Contradiction by the Diagonal Method |
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173 | (2) |
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7.2.1.1 Function as an Assumption |
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175 | (1) |
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7.3 Statistical Test of the Randomness of the Number of Children |
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175 | (12) |
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7.3.1 Sorting by Independent Variables |
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176 | (1) |
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7.3.1.1 List of Statistical Tests |
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176 | (4) |
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7.3.1.2 Result of the Statistical Test of GSS 1950s Data |
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180 | (1) |
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7.3.1.3 Sequence by Another Sorting Method |
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181 | (1) |
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7.3.2 Statistical Tests for Number of Japanese Children |
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182 | (1) |
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182 | (1) |
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183 | (1) |
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7.3.2.3 Comparison with the Hierarchical Differential Sequence |
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184 | (1) |
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7.3.3 Older (Partial) Sequences |
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185 | (1) |
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7.3.3.1 U.S. 1930--1939 Cohort |
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186 | (1) |
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7.3.3.2 U.S. 1910--1919 Cohort |
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186 | (1) |
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7.4 Irreducibility of the Sequence of the Number of Children |
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187 | (1) |
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7.4.1 Evaluation of the Function Using Information Theory |
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187 | (1) |
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7.5 Conscious Choice of Birth---Distribution of the Number of Children |
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188 | (5) |
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7.5.0.1 Free Choices are Random |
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188 | (1) |
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7.5.0.2 Ideal Number of Children and the Number of Children in America |
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189 | (1) |
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7.5.0.3 Ideal Versus Actual Number of Children in Japan |
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190 | (3) |
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7.5.0.4 Ideal Number of Children is a Response to the Number of Children in High Dimensional Space |
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193 | (1) |
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7.6 Necessity of Multi-Dimensional Space |
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193 | (4) |
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7.6.1 Necessity of Geographical Dimensions |
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194 | (1) |
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7.6.1.1 Consideration of Geographical Dimensions |
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195 | (1) |
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7.6.2 Necessity of Time Dimension for Observation |
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196 | (1) |
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197 | (1) |
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8 Birth Function for a Cohort |
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198 | (44) |
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8.1 Only One Birth Function Exists |
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198 | (1) |
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199 | (1) |
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8.2 Calculation of Birth Probabilities by Age and Specific Age at Marriage |
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199 | (9) |
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8.2.1 Birth Probabilities in 1939 in Japan |
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202 | (3) |
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8.2.1.1 England-Wales in 1939 |
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205 | (3) |
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8.3 Regularity of Birth Probabilities |
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208 | (2) |
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8.3.1 Precise Computation of Birth Probability by the Birth Function |
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209 | (1) |
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8.3.1.1 Quasi-Replication |
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210 | (1) |
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210 | (1) |
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211 | (6) |
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8.5.1 1965 Cohort in Japan |
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213 | (1) |
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214 | (1) |
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8.5.2 1970 Cohort in Japan |
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215 | (1) |
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8.5.3 1975 and 1980 Cohorts in Japan |
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215 | (1) |
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8.5.4 1939 and 1985 Cohorts in Japan |
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215 | (1) |
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8.5.5 England-Wales---C. Clark's Data |
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216 | (1) |
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216 | (1) |
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8.6 Birth Function for a Cohort |
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217 | (6) |
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8.6.1 Virtual 1985 Cohort |
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218 | (1) |
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218 | (1) |
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219 | (1) |
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220 | (1) |
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221 | (1) |
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8.6.1.5 Model-Four and Model-Five |
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221 | (1) |
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222 | (1) |
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8.7 Integration of Birth Function with 1985 (Virtual) Cohort |
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223 | (10) |
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8.7.1 Idiosyncrasy Rates of 1985 |
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223 | (1) |
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223 | (3) |
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226 | (1) |
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8.7.3.1 Coefficient of Catch-up |
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227 | (1) |
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8.7.3.2 Analysis of the Derivatives of the Birth Function |
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228 | (2) |
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8.7.3.3 Effect of Infertility Treatment |
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230 | (2) |
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8.7.4 Randomness of the Sequence of the Number of Children |
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232 | (1) |
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8.8 Statistical Test of Birth Function for a Cohort |
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233 | (2) |
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8.9 Fixed Point of Birth Function for a Cohort |
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235 | (1) |
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8.10 Strong Relation between Late Marriage Tendency and Birth Function |
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236 | (4) |
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8.10.1 The Reverse is not Always True |
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238 | (1) |
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8.10.1.1 Effectiveness of Pronatalist Policy Measures |
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238 | (2) |
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8.11 Limitations of the Birth Function for a Cohort |
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240 | (2) |
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9 Necessity of Extending the Birth Function |
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242 | (36) |
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9.1 Need for Geographical Factors |
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242 | (12) |
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9.1.1 Religious Differential Fertility Explained by Spatial Differentials |
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243 | (1) |
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9.1.1.1 Jewish Fertility Decline in 19th-Century Venice |
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244 | (2) |
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9.1.1.2 True Nature of Difference Between a Ghetto and Elsewhere |
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246 | (1) |
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9.1.2 End of American Catholic Fertility |
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247 | (3) |
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9.1.3 Inability of Explaining Fertility Undulations through Socioeconomic Differences |
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250 | (1) |
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9.1.3.1 Universality of Fertility Undulation |
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251 | (3) |
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9.2 Equivalent Principle of Time and Distance |
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254 | (12) |
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9.2.1 Effect of High-Speed Mobility on the Equivalent Principle |
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255 | (1) |
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9.2.1.1 High-Speed Mobility is not Destroying the Equivalent Principle |
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255 | (2) |
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9.2.2 Effect of Network Communication on the Equivalent Principle |
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257 | (1) |
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9.2.2.1 Present-Day No-acceleration of the Tempo of Fertility Undulation |
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258 | (1) |
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9.2.2.2 High-Speed Mobility and Networks Transmit Conscious Information but cannot Alter Demographic Behaviors |
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258 | (1) |
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9.2.3 Diffusion of Low Fertility in Spaces in Japan |
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258 | (1) |
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9.2.3.1 Failure of the Will Alteration Hypothesis |
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259 | (2) |
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9.2.4 Verification of the Principle by Historical Data |
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261 | (1) |
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261 | (1) |
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262 | (2) |
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264 | (2) |
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9.2.4.4 Falsifiable Theory |
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266 | (1) |
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9.3 Alteration of Values does not Cause Human Behaviors |
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266 | (4) |
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9.3.1 Alteration of Fertility Before Change in the Value of Childbearing |
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266 | (4) |
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9.4 Decline of the Number of Children by Unconscious Parents |
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270 | (1) |
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9.5 Unconscious Birth Control |
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271 | (5) |
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9.5.1 Failed Efforts of the Third Reich |
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272 | (1) |
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9.5.2 Unconscious Alteration of the Number of Children per Family in Japan |
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273 | (1) |
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9.5.2.1 Childbearing and Increased Fertility Until the Defeat in World War II |
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273 | (2) |
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9.5.2.2 Antinatalist Policy in Japan Following World War II |
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275 | (1) |
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9.6 Birth Function as a General Law |
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276 | (2) |
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10 Partial Constant Birth Probability |
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278 | (9) |
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10.1 Idiosyncratic Teenagers |
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278 | (6) |
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10.1.1 Teenage Pregnancy in The United States |
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279 | (2) |
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10.1.2 Teenage Pregnancy in France |
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281 | (1) |
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10.1.3 Teenage Pregnancy in Sweden |
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282 | (1) |
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10.1.4 Teenage Pregnancy in Canada |
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283 | (1) |
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10.2 Effect of Teenage Marriage Rate on Birth |
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284 | (1) |
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284 | (1) |
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10.2.1.1 Reasons for the Fertility Decline of Teenagers |
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284 | (1) |
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10.2.2 Idiosyncrasy of Teenage Marriage |
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284 | (1) |
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10.3 Choosing Initial Constant Values? |
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285 | (2) |
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10.3.1 Distinctive Features |
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286 | (1) |
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10.3.2 End of Teenage Birth Probabilities |
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286 | (1) |
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11 Birth Function for High-Dimensional Space |
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287 | (34) |
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11.1 Age and Marriage-Age Dimensions |
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287 | (5) |
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11.1.1 Causes of Dynamics are Birth Probabilities and Background Independence |
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288 | (1) |
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11.1.1.1 Sensitive Range of a Female |
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288 | (3) |
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11.1.1.2 Self-Reconditioning is Ignored |
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291 | (1) |
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291 | (1) |
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11.2 Initial Values of the Birth Function |
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292 | (1) |
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11.3 Idiosyncratic Birth Behaviors |
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293 | (5) |
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11.3.1 Features of Birth Functions |
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294 | (2) |
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11.3.2 Age of 18 as a Turning Point in the Birth Function for Japan |
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296 | (1) |
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11.3.2.1 Modification of Initial Values and Destinations |
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297 | (1) |
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11.3.3 Dynamics of the Birth Function for Japan |
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297 | (1) |
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11.4 Addition of Geographical Dimensions |
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298 | (3) |
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11.4.1 Extension in Lattice Space |
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299 | (1) |
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11.4.1.1 Endogenously Computed n(tk)--Expected Number of Children |
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300 | (1) |
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11.4.1.2 Difference Equation in the Extended Space |
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301 | (1) |
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11.5 Benefit of Extending the Birth Function |
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301 | (7) |
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11.5.1 Significance of Four Dimensions |
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302 | (1) |
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11.5.2 Original Values of Coefficients |
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303 | (1) |
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11.5.2.1 Elimination of Alternative Reference |
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303 | (1) |
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11.5.2.2 Infinite Transportation |
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304 | (1) |
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11.5.2.3 Considering μ = 1.0 for the Diagonal Elements |
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304 | (1) |
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11.5.3 Changes in the Neighboring Function |
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305 | (1) |
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11.5.3.1 How is the First Birth Function Altered? |
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305 | (1) |
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11.5.3.2 Rapid Alteration by the First Married Population |
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|
306 | (1) |
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307 | (1) |
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11.6 Origin of the Hole of Low Fertility |
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308 | (1) |
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11.6.1 What Constitutes the Hole of Low Fertility? |
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|
308 | (1) |
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11.6.2 Peculiar Pattern of the Birth Function |
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|
309 | (1) |
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11.7 Magnificent Metamorphosis |
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309 | (3) |
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11.7.1 Schema of the Dynamics of the Birth Function |
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|
310 | (1) |
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11.7.1.1 Resemblance with the Birth Function of England-Wales |
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311 | (1) |
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11.8 Strange Ripples Following the Development of the Hole of Low Fertility |
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312 | (8) |
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11.8.1 Birth Function as a Reaction-Diffusion System |
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|
315 | (1) |
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11.8.1.1 Mechanism of the Strange Patterns |
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316 | (1) |
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11.8.1.2 Reason for the Preservation of Convexoconcave Undulations |
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317 | (1) |
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11.8.1.3 Individual Cut Sections |
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317 | (2) |
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11.8.1.4 Transcendental Others |
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319 | (1) |
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11.9 Birth Behaviors are not Individualistic |
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|
320 | (1) |
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12 Distribution of the Numbers of Children |
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321 | (8) |
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12.1 Validity of the Extended Birth Function |
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|
321 | (1) |
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12.2 Distribution of the Number of Children |
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|
322 | (7) |
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12.2.1 Number of Children Based on the Birth Function |
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|
322 | (1) |
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12.2.2 Distribution of the Number of Children at the Beginning of Fertility Decline---Japan, 1939 |
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|
323 | (1) |
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12.2.3 Distribution of the Number of Children During the Process of Fertility Decline---Japan, 1985 |
|
|
324 | (1) |
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12.2.3.1 Test by Variance and Non-parametric Values |
|
|
325 | (1) |
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12.2.4 Prediction and Test by Non-Parametric Statistics |
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|
325 | (1) |
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12.2.4.1 Gradual Variation of Birth Function Between Fixed Points |
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|
326 | (3) |
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13 Conclusion---to End This Book |
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|
329 | (2) |
|
|
329 | (1) |
|
|
330 | (1) |
Appendix |
|
331 | (2) |
Bibliography |
|
333 | (8) |
Index |
|
341 | |