| Preface |
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xix | |
| Authors |
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xxi | |
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1 | (10) |
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1 | (1) |
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1.2 International trade and shipping |
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2 | (1) |
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3 | (2) |
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1.4 Anatomy of an accident |
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5 | (1) |
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6 | (1) |
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1.6 Motivation for writing the book |
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7 | (1) |
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8 | (1) |
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8 | (3) |
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9 | (2) |
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11 | (22) |
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11 | (8) |
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11 | (2) |
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2.1.2 Occupational accidents |
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13 | (1) |
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2.1.3 Environmental factors |
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14 | (2) |
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16 | (2) |
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18 | (1) |
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19 | (1) |
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19 | (3) |
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22 | (4) |
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26 | (2) |
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2.5 Fatalities among seafarers |
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28 | (1) |
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2.6 Oil spills and pollution |
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28 | (2) |
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2.7 Effect of some factors on the risk level |
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30 | (3) |
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31 | (2) |
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33 | (18) |
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33 | (1) |
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34 | (5) |
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34 | (2) |
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36 | (1) |
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3.2.3 Other definitions of risk |
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36 | (2) |
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38 | (1) |
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3.2.5 Perceived risk vs calculated risk |
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38 | (1) |
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3.2.6 Use of risk vs safety |
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38 | (1) |
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39 | (6) |
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3.3.1 An introduction to the bow-tie model |
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39 | (1) |
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40 | (2) |
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42 | (1) |
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43 | (1) |
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43 | (1) |
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43 | (1) |
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3.3.7 Incident and near miss |
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44 | (1) |
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3.4 Frequency and probability |
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45 | (1) |
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45 | (1) |
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46 | (1) |
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46 | (1) |
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46 | (1) |
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47 | (1) |
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3.8 Risk analysis and risk assessment |
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47 | (1) |
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3.9 Risk control and reduction |
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48 | (1) |
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3.10 Risk acceptance criteria |
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49 | (2) |
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49 | (2) |
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4 Stakeholders, rules, and regulations |
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51 | (44) |
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51 | (1) |
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4.2 International trade and shipping |
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52 | (7) |
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52 | (1) |
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53 | (1) |
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4.2.3 Ship types and trades |
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54 | (1) |
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4.2.4 Economics of shipping |
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54 | (2) |
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4.2.5 Competitiveness of shipping |
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56 | (3) |
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4.3 The shipping industry system |
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59 | (8) |
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59 | (2) |
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4.3.2 Corporate social responsibility |
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61 | (3) |
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64 | (2) |
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66 | (1) |
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4.4 The maritime safety regime |
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67 | (5) |
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4.4.1 Why safety improvement is difficult |
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67 | (2) |
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4.4.2 Rules and regulations |
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69 | (1) |
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4.4.3 The structure of control |
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70 | (1) |
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4.4.4 International Maritime Organization (IMO) |
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70 | (2) |
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4.5 Ship safety conventions |
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72 | (4) |
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72 | (1) |
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72 | (1) |
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4.5.3 International convention onload lines, 1966 |
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73 | (1) |
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74 | (1) |
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75 | (1) |
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75 | (1) |
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4.6 International Labour Organization |
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76 | (1) |
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77 | (1) |
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4.8 Enforcement of safety regulation |
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78 | (4) |
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78 | (1) |
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4.8.2 Delegation of flag State Control |
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79 | (1) |
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4.8.3 The Flag State audit project |
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79 | (3) |
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82 | (6) |
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82 | (2) |
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4.9.2 MOU Port State Control (PSC) |
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84 | (4) |
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4.10 Classification Societies |
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88 | (2) |
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90 | (5) |
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91 | (4) |
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5 Safety management system |
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95 | (18) |
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95 | (1) |
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5.2 Prescriptive vs functional rules and regulations |
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96 | (1) |
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5.3 Safety management in a wider perspective |
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96 | (2) |
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5.4 Safety management process |
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98 | (5) |
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5.4.1 Establish the context |
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99 | (1) |
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99 | (1) |
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100 | (1) |
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5.4.4 Propose measures to reduce risk |
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100 | (1) |
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5.4.5 Decide and implement |
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100 | (1) |
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5.4.6 Monitoring and reporting |
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101 | (1) |
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5.4.7 Consultation and reporting |
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102 | (1) |
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103 | (5) |
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103 | (1) |
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5.5.2 The content of the ISM Code |
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104 | (4) |
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5.6 Effect of the ISM Code |
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108 | (5) |
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110 | (3) |
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113 | (20) |
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113 | (2) |
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6.2 Some factors affecting risk acceptance |
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115 | (3) |
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115 | (1) |
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116 | (1) |
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116 | (1) |
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6.2.4 Time since accidents and own experience |
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117 | (1) |
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6.2.5 Time until effects are experienced |
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117 | (1) |
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6.2.6 Lack of understanding of the risk |
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118 | (1) |
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6.3 Decision-making principles |
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118 | (1) |
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6.4 Individual vs societal risk acceptance criteria |
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119 | (2) |
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121 | (2) |
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6.5.1 Achieving risk that is ALARP |
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123 | (1) |
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6.6 Other principles for risk acceptance |
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123 | (2) |
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6.7 Qualitative risk acceptance criteria |
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125 | (1) |
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6.8 Acceptance criteria in the maritime industry |
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126 | (7) |
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6.8.1 Criteria for risk to people |
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126 | (1) |
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126 | (1) |
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127 | (1) |
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6.8.1.3 Converting injuries to fatalities |
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127 | (1) |
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6.8.1.4 The equivalence principle |
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128 | (1) |
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6.8.2 Environmental criteria |
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129 | (1) |
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6.8.3 Criteria for other consequences |
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130 | (1) |
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131 | (2) |
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7 Human and organizational factors |
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133 | (42) |
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133 | (2) |
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7.2 Human and organizational factors data |
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135 | (1) |
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7.3 Classification of human and organizational factors |
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136 | (3) |
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7.4 Human factors influencing accidents |
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139 | (2) |
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141 | (3) |
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7.6 Physical working environment |
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144 | (5) |
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144 | (2) |
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146 | (1) |
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147 | (2) |
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149 | (3) |
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152 | (4) |
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152 | (1) |
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153 | (2) |
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7.8.3 Radar operation and vigilance |
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155 | (1) |
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156 | (5) |
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7.10 Perception and decision making |
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161 | (1) |
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161 | (1) |
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161 | (1) |
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162 | (1) |
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162 | (1) |
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7.12 Bridge Resource Management |
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163 | (1) |
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7.13 Human-machine interface (HMI) |
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164 | (5) |
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7.14 Safety culture and safety climate |
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169 | (6) |
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171 | (4) |
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175 | (78) |
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175 | (1) |
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8.2 Risk assessment and risk analysis |
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176 | (16) |
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8.2.1 A General Risk Assessment Process |
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176 | (1) |
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8.2.2 Problem definition and system description |
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177 | (4) |
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8.2.3 Work organization and choice of method and data |
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181 | (1) |
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8.2.4 Hazard identification |
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182 | (2) |
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8.2.5 Causal and frequency analysis |
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184 | (1) |
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8.2.6 Consequence analysis |
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185 | (2) |
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187 | (1) |
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8.2.8 Comparison with risk acceptance criteria |
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188 | (1) |
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8.2.9 Identify and evaluate risk reduction measures |
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188 | (2) |
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190 | (1) |
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8.2.11 Limitations of risk analysis |
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190 | (2) |
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8.3 Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA) |
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192 | (6) |
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192 | (1) |
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192 | (1) |
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192 | (1) |
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193 | (1) |
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193 | (1) |
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8.3.4.2 Hazard identification |
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193 | (1) |
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8.3.4.3 Causal and frequency analysis |
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194 | (1) |
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8.3.4.4 Consequence analysis |
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195 | (1) |
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8.3.4.5 Result presentation |
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196 | (2) |
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8.4 Safe Job Analysis (SJA) |
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198 | (3) |
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198 | (1) |
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198 | (1) |
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199 | (1) |
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199 | (1) |
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199 | (1) |
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8.4.4.2 Hazard identification |
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199 | (1) |
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8.4.4.3 Causal and frequency analysis |
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200 | (1) |
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8.4.4.4 Consequence analysis |
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200 | (1) |
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8.4.4.5 Result presentation |
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200 | (1) |
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201 | (6) |
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201 | (1) |
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201 | (1) |
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202 | (1) |
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202 | (1) |
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202 | (1) |
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8.5.4.2 Hazard identification |
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203 | (1) |
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8.5.4.3 Causal and frequency analysis |
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204 | (1) |
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8.5.4.4 Consequence analysis |
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205 | (1) |
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8.5.4.5 Result presentation |
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206 | (1) |
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207 | (7) |
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207 | (2) |
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209 | (1) |
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209 | (1) |
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209 | (1) |
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209 | (1) |
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8.6.4.2 Hazard identification |
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210 | (1) |
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8.6.4.3 Causal and frequency analysis |
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211 | (1) |
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8.6.4.4 Consequence analysis |
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211 | (1) |
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8.6.4.5 Result presentation |
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212 | (2) |
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214 | (2) |
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214 | (1) |
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214 | (2) |
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8.7.3 Comparison with FMECA |
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216 | (1) |
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216 | (14) |
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8.8.1 Constructing fault trees |
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217 | (3) |
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220 | (2) |
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8.8.3 Quantification of fault trees |
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222 | (8) |
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230 | (10) |
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230 | (2) |
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8.9.2 Constructing event trees |
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232 | (1) |
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8.9.3 Quantification of event trees |
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233 | (7) |
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240 | (8) |
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240 | (2) |
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242 | (1) |
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8.10.3 Quantification of BN |
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243 | (3) |
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246 | (2) |
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8.11 Risk contribution trees |
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248 | (1) |
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249 | (4) |
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251 | (2) |
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253 | (22) |
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253 | (1) |
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253 | (7) |
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9.3 Measuring risk to people |
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260 | (10) |
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9.3.1 Societal and individual risk |
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260 | (1) |
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260 | (2) |
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9.3.3 Potential Loss of Life (PEL) |
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262 | (1) |
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263 | (2) |
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9.3.5 Individual Risk (IR) |
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265 | (2) |
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9.3.6 Fatal Accident Rate (FAR) |
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267 | (1) |
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9.3.7 Combining injuries and fatalities |
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268 | (2) |
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9.4 Measuring risk to the environment |
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270 | (1) |
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9.5 Measuring risk to other assets |
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271 | (4) |
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271 | (1) |
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272 | (1) |
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272 | (3) |
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10 Methods for navigational risk analysis |
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275 | (36) |
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275 | (1) |
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276 | (6) |
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10.2.1 Early studies of powered groundings |
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276 | (2) |
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10.2.2 Developments of powered grounding models |
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278 | (3) |
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281 | (1) |
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10.3 Allision with fixed offshore installations |
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282 | (7) |
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10.3.1 Powered passing vessels |
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283 | (2) |
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10.3.2 Allision with wind farms |
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285 | (1) |
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286 | (3) |
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289 | (7) |
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289 | (1) |
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10.4.2 Head-on collisions |
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289 | (3) |
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10.4.3 Crossing collision |
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292 | (2) |
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10.4.4 Traffic modeling based on AIS observation |
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294 | (2) |
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10.5 Causation probability |
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296 | (8) |
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10.5.1 Empirical approach |
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296 | (1) |
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10.5.2 Fault tree analysis (FTA) |
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297 | (1) |
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10.5.3 Bayesian Belief Network |
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298 | (6) |
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304 | (2) |
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306 | (5) |
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307 | (4) |
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11 Human reliability analysis |
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311 | (42) |
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311 | (2) |
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11.2 Human reliability analysis |
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313 | (4) |
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11.2.1 Problem definition |
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315 | (1) |
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315 | (1) |
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11.2.3 Human error identification |
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315 | (1) |
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316 | (1) |
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11.2.5 Human error probability HEP |
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317 | (1) |
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317 | (5) |
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11.3.1 Human error identification by means of PHEA |
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317 | (1) |
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11.3.2 Error modeling by means of THERP |
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318 | (1) |
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11.3.3 HEP estimation in THERP |
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319 | (2) |
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11.3.4 Data on HEPs and PSFs in THERP |
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321 | (1) |
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322 | (12) |
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11.4.1 Human error identification by means of CREAM |
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322 | (2) |
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11.4.2 Error modeling by means of CREAM |
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324 | (2) |
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11.4.3 HEP estimation in CREAM |
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326 | (1) |
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326 | (4) |
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330 | (4) |
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11.5 Human error assessment and reduction technique (HEART) |
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334 | (3) |
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11.6 Application of THERP in transport |
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337 | (6) |
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11.6.1 Crew error in aircraft takeoff |
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337 | (2) |
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11.6.2 Human contribution in marine traffic accidents |
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339 | (4) |
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11.7 Application of CREAM in transport |
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343 | (4) |
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11.8 Calibration of an HRA model with accident data |
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347 | (6) |
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351 | (2) |
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12 Formal safety assessment |
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353 | (48) |
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353 | (1) |
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354 | (1) |
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12.1.2 Intended use of FSA |
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354 | (1) |
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355 | (3) |
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358 | (5) |
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12.3.1 Problem definition |
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358 | (1) |
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359 | (3) |
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362 | (1) |
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12.4 Step 1: Hazard identification |
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363 | (6) |
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12.4.1 Step 1.1: Identify hazards |
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364 | (1) |
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12.4.2 Step 1.2: Describe structured scenarios |
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365 | (1) |
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12.4.3 Step 1.3: Rank and screen scenarios |
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366 | (3) |
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12.5 Step 2: Risk assessment |
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369 | (8) |
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12.5.1 Step 2.1 Qualitative scenario descriptions |
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369 | (1) |
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12.5.2 Step 2.2 Quantify scenarios |
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370 | (2) |
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12.5.3 Step 2.3 Calculate risk |
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372 | (3) |
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12.5.4 Step 2.4 Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses |
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375 | (2) |
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12.6 Step 3: Establish safety measures |
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377 | (5) |
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378 | (1) |
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12.6.2 Step 3.1 Areas needing control |
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379 | (1) |
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12.6.3 Step 3.2 Identify risk control measures |
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380 | (1) |
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12.6.4 Step 3.3: Grouping risk control measures |
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381 | (1) |
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12.6.5 Step 3.4: Evaluating the effectiveness of RCMs/RCOs |
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382 | (1) |
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12.7 Step 4: Cost-benefit assessment |
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382 | (5) |
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12.7.1 Step 4.1: Baseline assumptions and conditions |
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383 | (1) |
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12.7.2 Step 4.2: Calculate costs |
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384 | (1) |
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12.7.3 Step 4.3: Calculate benefits |
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385 | (1) |
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12.7.4 Step 4.4: Calculate cost-effectiveness |
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385 | (1) |
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12.7.5 Step 4.5: Evaluating uncertainty |
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386 | (1) |
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12.8 Recommendations for decision-making |
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387 | (1) |
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12.9 Application of the FSA methodology |
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388 | (10) |
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12.9.1 Step 1: Hazard identification |
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389 | (1) |
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12.9.2 Step 2: Risk assessment |
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389 | (5) |
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12.9.3 Step 3: Establish safety measures (risk control options) |
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394 | (1) |
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12.9.4 Step 4: Cost-benefit assessment |
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395 | (1) |
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12.9.5 Step 5: Recommendations for decision-making |
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396 | (2) |
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398 | (3) |
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399 | (2) |
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401 | (26) |
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401 | (2) |
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13.1.1 Threats in the delivery phase |
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402 | (1) |
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13.1.2 Threats to seaborne transport |
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402 | (1) |
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403 | (1) |
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13.2 Improving the security in the cargo supply chain |
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403 | (5) |
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403 | (1) |
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404 | (2) |
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406 | (1) |
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407 | (1) |
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13.2.5 Container security |
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407 | (1) |
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|
408 | (2) |
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13.3.1 Compliance costs for the shipowner |
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|
409 | (1) |
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410 | (1) |
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13.4.1 Definition of piracy today |
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411 | (1) |
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411 | (5) |
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13.5.1 Locations of piracy |
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413 | (2) |
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415 | (1) |
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416 | (3) |
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13.6.1 Combating piracy in Somalia |
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416 | (1) |
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417 | (1) |
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418 | (1) |
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418 | (1) |
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13.7 Vessel security against piracy |
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419 | (8) |
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13.7.1 Risk assessment of vessel |
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420 | (1) |
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13.7.2 Operative measures |
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421 | (1) |
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13.7.3 Protection of vessel |
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421 | (1) |
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13.7.4 Cyber security and risk management |
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422 | (2) |
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424 | (3) |
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427 | (40) |
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427 | (1) |
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14.2 Types of data needed in risk analysis |
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428 | (2) |
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428 | (1) |
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428 | (1) |
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14.2.3 Environmental data |
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428 | (1) |
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429 | (1) |
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14.2.5 Input to fault trees and event trees |
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429 | (1) |
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429 | (1) |
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14.3 Evaluating data sources |
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430 | (1) |
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14.4 Frequency and consequence |
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431 | (13) |
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14.4.1 Shipping statistics yearbook |
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431 | (1) |
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432 | (6) |
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14.4.3 Annual overview from EMS A |
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438 | (4) |
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14.4.4 Data from national maritime administrations |
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442 | (1) |
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14.4.4.1 The United Kingdom and Canada |
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442 | (2) |
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14.4.5 Marine Accident Inquiry Agency (MAIA) of Japan |
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444 | (1) |
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444 | (5) |
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14.5.1 Skill-rule-knowledge model |
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444 | (1) |
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445 | (1) |
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14.5.3 Swiss Cheese Model (SCM) |
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445 | (1) |
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446 | (1) |
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446 | (1) |
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446 | (3) |
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449 | (11) |
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14.6.1 Port state control findings |
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449 | (1) |
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14.6.2 Data from accident investigations |
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449 | (1) |
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450 | (5) |
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455 | (1) |
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14.6.5 Powered grounding accidents |
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456 | (1) |
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457 | (2) |
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14.6.5.2 Track history of vessel |
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459 | (1) |
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460 | (7) |
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464 | (3) |
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15 Risk reduction measures |
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467 | (52) |
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467 | (1) |
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15.2 Barriers and barrier classification |
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467 | (8) |
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15.2.1 What is a barrier? |
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467 | (1) |
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468 | (1) |
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15.2.3 Classification of barriers |
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469 | (1) |
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15.2.3.1 Classifications based on accident sequence |
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469 | (1) |
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15.2.3.2 Classifications based on type of barrier |
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470 | (1) |
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15.2.3.3 Classification based on function |
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471 | (1) |
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15.2.4 Barrier properties |
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471 | (1) |
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472 | (1) |
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472 | (1) |
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472 | (1) |
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473 | (1) |
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15.2.5 Attributes of RCMs from I MO |
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473 | (2) |
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15.3 Identifying risk reduction measures |
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475 | (3) |
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15.4 Evaluating and prioritizing risk reduction measures |
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478 | (5) |
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478 | (1) |
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479 | (1) |
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480 | (1) |
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|
480 | (1) |
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15.4.5 Where in event chain |
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481 | (1) |
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481 | (1) |
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482 | (1) |
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|
482 | (1) |
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15.5 Cost-benefit analysis |
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483 | (14) |
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484 | (1) |
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485 | (3) |
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15.5.3 CBA in safety management |
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|
488 | (5) |
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15.5.4 Cost-benefit analysis methodologies |
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|
493 | (2) |
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15.5.5 Establishing criteria for ICAF |
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|
495 | (2) |
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15.6 Case study: oil spill prevention measures for tankers |
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|
497 | (7) |
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15.7 Alternative approaches to selection |
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|
504 | (10) |
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15.7.1 Ranking of concepts |
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|
504 | (2) |
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15.7.2 Relative importance ranking |
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|
506 | (5) |
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15.7.3 Valuation of consequence parameters |
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|
511 | (3) |
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15.8 Barrier management in operation |
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|
514 | (5) |
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|
516 | (3) |
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16 Emergency preparedness and response |
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|
519 | (48) |
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519 | (2) |
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16.2 Examples of accidents |
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521 | (6) |
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521 | (1) |
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522 | (1) |
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523 | (2) |
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|
525 | (2) |
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16.3 Principles of emergency response |
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|
527 | (1) |
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16.4 Emergency and life-saving regulations |
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|
528 | (5) |
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|
528 | (3) |
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16.4.2 ISM Code: emergency preparedness |
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|
531 | (1) |
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532 | (1) |
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16.5 Emergency preparedness activities and functions |
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533 | (6) |
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533 | (3) |
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536 | (1) |
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536 | (3) |
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16.6 Human behavior in emergency situations |
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|
539 | (4) |
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16.6.1 General characterization |
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|
539 | (3) |
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16.6.2 Emergency behavior |
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|
542 | (1) |
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|
543 | (5) |
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16.8 Evacuation simulation |
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|
548 | (10) |
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|
548 | (1) |
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16.8.2 Modeling the evacuation process |
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|
549 | (2) |
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|
551 | (3) |
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16.8.4 Evacuation from partly capsized vessels |
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|
554 | (2) |
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16.8.5 Designing for safe evacuation |
|
|
556 | (2) |
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16.9 Pollution emergency planning |
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|
558 | (9) |
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558 | (2) |
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560 | (3) |
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|
563 | (4) |
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567 | (12) |
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|
567 | (2) |
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|
569 | (1) |
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17.3 Approach to risk-based design |
|
|
570 | (3) |
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17.4 Approval process according to MSC 1455 |
|
|
573 | (3) |
|
17.5 Probabilistic damage stability |
|
|
576 | (3) |
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|
576 | (3) |
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|
|
579 | (30) |
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|
|
579 | (1) |
|
18.2 Monitoring loss numbers |
|
|
579 | (3) |
|
18.2.1 Time series of grounding accidents |
|
|
579 | (3) |
|
18.3 Analysis of time series |
|
|
582 | (2) |
|
18.4 Maritime disasters with many fatalities |
|
|
584 | (3) |
|
18.5 Fitting a non-parametric distribution |
|
|
587 | (1) |
|
18.6 The lognormal distribution |
|
|
588 | (4) |
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|
|
588 | (2) |
|
18.6.2 Fitting a parametric distribution to observed data |
|
|
590 | (2) |
|
18.7 Estimating a worst-case scenario |
|
|
592 | (7) |
|
18.7.1 A simple approach based on distribution function |
|
|
592 | (1) |
|
18.7.2 The extreme value distributions |
|
|
593 | (2) |
|
18.7.3 EVT estimation of tanker oil spills |
|
|
595 | (4) |
|
18.8 Analysis of competence correlation coefficient |
|
|
599 | (3) |
|
18.9 Testing of a distribution lost time accidents |
|
|
602 | (1) |
|
18.10 Choosing among alternative training programs |
|
|
603 | (2) |
|
18.11 The effect of time control charts |
|
|
605 | (4) |
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|
|
608 | (1) |
|
19 Learning from accidents and incidents |
|
|
609 | (33) |
|
|
|
609 | (1) |
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|
|
610 | (2) |
|
19.3 Causes of accidents and near-miss |
|
|
612 | (2) |
|
|
|
614 | (7) |
|
19.4.1 Energy-barrier models |
|
|
615 | (1) |
|
|
|
615 | (1) |
|
19.4.3 Epidemiological models |
|
|
616 | (2) |
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|
|
618 | (3) |
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|
|
621 | (2) |
|
|
|
623 | (3) |
|
|
|
625 | (1) |
|
19.7 Loss Causation Model and M-SCAT |
|
|
626 | (7) |
|
|
|
626 | (2) |
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|
|
628 | (1) |
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|
|
629 | (3) |
|
|
|
632 | (1) |
|
19.8 Accident investigation process |
|
|
633 | (6) |
|
19.8.1 Overview of process |
|
|
633 | (1) |
|
19.8.2 Step 1: Initiate the investigation |
|
|
634 | (1) |
|
19.8.3 Step 2: Preparations |
|
|
635 | (1) |
|
19.8.4 Step 3: Collecting evidence |
|
|
635 | (1) |
|
19.8.5 Step 4: Analyzing evidence |
|
|
636 | (1) |
|
19.8.6 Step 5: Prepare recommendations |
|
|
637 | (1) |
|
19.8.7 Step 6: Prepare report |
|
|
638 | (1) |
|
|
|
639 | (1) |
|
19.10 Near-miss investigations |
|
|
639 | (2) |
|
19.11 Accident investigation reports |
|
|
641 | (1) |
|
MAIB Marine Accident Investigation Branch (UK) |
|
|
641 | (1) |
|
NTSB National Transportation Safety Board (USA) |
|
|
641 | (1) |
|
Dutch Safety Board about 100 reports |
|
|
641 | (1) |
|
Norwegian Safety Investigation Authority- about 100 reports |
|
|
641 | (1) |
|
TSB Transportation Safety Board of Canada |
|
|
642 | (1) |
|
ATSB Australian Transport Safety Bureau |
|
|
642 | (1) |
| References |
|
642 | (3) |
| Index |
|
645 | |