Preface and Acknowledgments |
|
xxi | |
|
|
1 | (10) |
|
1.1 Overview of Transmission Planning |
|
|
1 | (5) |
|
1.1.1 Basic Tasks in Transmission Planning |
|
|
1 | (2) |
|
1.1.2 Traditional Planning Criteria |
|
|
3 | (3) |
|
1.2 Necessity of Probabilistic Transmission Planning |
|
|
6 | (2) |
|
|
8 | (3) |
|
2 BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILISTIC PLANNING |
|
|
11 | (10) |
|
|
11 | (1) |
|
2.2 Probabilistic Planning Criteria |
|
|
12 | (2) |
|
2.2.1 Probabilistic Cost Criteria |
|
|
12 | (1) |
|
2.2.2 Specified Reliability Index Target |
|
|
13 | (1) |
|
2.2.3 Relative Comparison |
|
|
13 | (1) |
|
2.2.4 Incremental Reliability Index |
|
|
13 | (1) |
|
2.3 Procedure of Probabilistic Planning |
|
|
14 | (3) |
|
2.3.1 Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation |
|
|
14 | (3) |
|
2.3.2 Probabilistic Economic Analysis |
|
|
17 | (1) |
|
2.4 Other Aspects in Probabilistic Planning |
|
|
17 | (1) |
|
|
18 | (3) |
|
|
21 | (28) |
|
|
21 | (1) |
|
|
22 | (15) |
|
3.2.1 Multivariate Linear Regression |
|
|
22 | (1) |
|
3.2.1.1 Regression Equation |
|
|
22 | (1) |
|
3.2.1.2 Statistical Test of Regression Model |
|
|
23 | (2) |
|
3.2.1.3 Regression Forecast |
|
|
25 | (1) |
|
3.2.2 Nonlinear Regression |
|
|
26 | (1) |
|
3.2.2.1 Nonlinear Regression Models |
|
|
26 | (1) |
|
3.2.2.2 Parameter Estimation of Models |
|
|
27 | (1) |
|
3.2.3 Probabilistic Time Series |
|
|
28 | (1) |
|
3.2.3.1 Conversion to a Stationary Time Series |
|
|
29 | (1) |
|
3.2.3.2 Model Identification |
|
|
30 | (1) |
|
3.2.3.3 Estimating Coefficients of Models |
|
|
31 | (1) |
|
3.2.3.4 Load Forecast Equation |
|
|
32 | (1) |
|
3.2.3.5 A Posteriori Test of Load Forecast Accuracy |
|
|
33 | (1) |
|
3.2.4 Neural Network Forecast |
|
|
34 | (1) |
|
3.2.4.1 Feedforward Backpropagation Neural Network (FFBPNN) |
|
|
34 | (2) |
|
3.2.4.2 Learning Process of FFBPNN |
|
|
36 | (1) |
|
|
37 | (1) |
|
|
37 | (5) |
|
3.3.1 Multistep Load Model |
|
|
37 | (3) |
|
3.3.2 Load Curve Grouping |
|
|
40 | (2) |
|
3.4 Uncertainty and Correlation of Bus Loads |
|
|
42 | (2) |
|
3.5 Voltage- and Frequency-Dependent Bus Loads |
|
|
44 | (2) |
|
3.5.1 Bus Load Model for Static Analysis |
|
|
45 | (1) |
|
3.5.1.1 Polynomial Bus Load Model |
|
|
45 | (1) |
|
3.5.1.2 Exponential Bus Load Model |
|
|
45 | (1) |
|
3.5.2 Bus Load Model for Dynamic Analysis |
|
|
46 | (1) |
|
|
46 | (3) |
|
4 System Analysis Techniques |
|
|
49 | (36) |
|
|
49 | (1) |
|
|
50 | (3) |
|
4.2.1 Newton-Raphson Method |
|
|
50 | (1) |
|
4.2.2 Fast Decoupled Method |
|
|
51 | (1) |
|
|
52 | (1) |
|
4.3 Probabilistic Power Flow |
|
|
53 | (4) |
|
4.3.1 Point Estimation Method |
|
|
54 | (1) |
|
|
55 | (2) |
|
4.4 Optimal Power Flow (OPF) |
|
|
57 | (7) |
|
|
58 | (2) |
|
4.4.2 Interior Point Method (IPM) |
|
|
60 | (1) |
|
4.4.2.1 Optimality and Feasibility Conditions |
|
|
60 | (2) |
|
|
62 | (2) |
|
4.5 Probabilistic Search Optimization Algorithms |
|
|
64 | (8) |
|
4.5.1 Genetic Algorithm (GA) |
|
|
64 | (1) |
|
|
65 | (1) |
|
|
65 | (1) |
|
|
66 | (1) |
|
|
67 | (1) |
|
|
67 | (1) |
|
4.5.1.6 Procedure of Genetic Algorithm |
|
|
68 | (1) |
|
4.5.2 Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) |
|
|
69 | (1) |
|
4.5.2.1 Inertia Weight Approach |
|
|
70 | (1) |
|
4.5.2.2 Constriction Factor Approach |
|
|
70 | (1) |
|
|
71 | (1) |
|
4.6 Contingency Analysis and Ranking |
|
|
72 | (4) |
|
4.6.1 Contingency Analysis Methods |
|
|
72 | (1) |
|
4.6.1.1 AC Power-Flow-Based Method |
|
|
72 | (1) |
|
4.6.1.2 DC Power-Flow-Based Method |
|
|
73 | (2) |
|
4.6.2 Contingency Ranking |
|
|
75 | (1) |
|
4.6.2.1 Ranking Based on Performance Index |
|
|
75 | (1) |
|
4.6.2.2 Ranking Based on Probabilistic Risk Index |
|
|
75 | (1) |
|
4.7 Voltage Stability Evaluation |
|
|
76 | (4) |
|
4.7.1 Continuation Power Flow Technique |
|
|
76 | (1) |
|
|
77 | (1) |
|
|
78 | (1) |
|
4.7.1.3 Identification of Voltage Collapse Point |
|
|
78 | (1) |
|
4.7.2 Reduced Jacobian Matrix Analysis |
|
|
78 | (2) |
|
4.8 Transient Stability Solution |
|
|
80 | (3) |
|
4.8.1 Transient Stability Equations |
|
|
80 | (1) |
|
4.8.2 Simultaneous Solution Technique |
|
|
81 | (1) |
|
4.8.3 Alternate Solution Technique |
|
|
82 | (1) |
|
|
83 | (2) |
|
5 Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation |
|
|
85 | (38) |
|
|
85 | (1) |
|
|
86 | (4) |
|
|
86 | (2) |
|
5.2.2 Reliability Worth Indices |
|
|
88 | (1) |
|
|
89 | (1) |
|
5.3 Reliability Worth Assessment |
|
|
90 | (3) |
|
5.3.1 Methods of Estimating Unit Interruption Cost |
|
|
90 | (1) |
|
5.3.2 Customer Damage Functions (CDFs) |
|
|
91 | (1) |
|
5.3.2.1 Customer Survey Approach |
|
|
91 | (1) |
|
5.3.2.2 Establishment of CDF |
|
|
91 | (1) |
|
5.3.3 Application of Reliability Worth Assessment |
|
|
92 | (1) |
|
5.4 Substation Adequacy Evaluation |
|
|
93 | (6) |
|
5.4.1 Outage Modes of Components |
|
|
94 | (1) |
|
5.4.2 State Enumeration Technique |
|
|
95 | (1) |
|
5.4.3 Labeled Bus Set Approach |
|
|
96 | (1) |
|
5.4.4 Procedure of Adequacy Evaluation |
|
|
97 | (2) |
|
5.5 Composite System Adequacy Evaluation |
|
|
99 | (8) |
|
5.5.1 Probabilistic Load Models |
|
|
100 | (1) |
|
5.5.1.1 Load Curve Models |
|
|
100 | (1) |
|
5.5.1.2 Load Uncertainty Model |
|
|
100 | (1) |
|
5.5.1.3 Load Correlation Model |
|
|
101 | (1) |
|
5.5.2 Component Outage Models |
|
|
101 | (1) |
|
5.5.2.1 Basic Two-State Model |
|
|
101 | (1) |
|
|
101 | (1) |
|
5.5.3 Selection of System Outage States |
|
|
102 | (1) |
|
5.5.3.1 Nonsequential Sampling |
|
|
102 | (1) |
|
5.5.3.2 Sequential Sampling |
|
|
103 | (1) |
|
|
103 | (1) |
|
5.5.5 Minimum Load Curtailment Model |
|
|
104 | (1) |
|
5.5.6 Procedure of Adequacy Evaluation |
|
|
105 | (2) |
|
5.6 Probabilistic Voltage Stability Assessment |
|
|
107 | (7) |
|
5.6.1 Optimization Model of Recognizing Power Flow Insolvability |
|
|
108 | (2) |
|
5.6.2 Method for Identifying Voltage Instability |
|
|
110 | (1) |
|
5.6.3 Determination of Contingency System States |
|
|
111 | (1) |
|
5.6.3.1 Selection of Precontingency System States |
|
|
111 | (1) |
|
5.6.3.2 Selection of Contingencies |
|
|
112 | (1) |
|
5.6.4 Assessing Average Voltage Instability Risk |
|
|
113 | (1) |
|
5.7 Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment |
|
|
114 | (6) |
|
5.7.1 Selection of Prefault System States |
|
|
114 | (1) |
|
5.7.2 Fault Probability Models |
|
|
115 | (1) |
|
5.7.2.1 Probability of Fault Occurrence |
|
|
115 | (1) |
|
5.7.2.2 Probability of Fault Location |
|
|
115 | (1) |
|
5.7.2.3 Probability of Fault Type |
|
|
115 | (1) |
|
5.7.2.4 Probability of Unsuccessful Automatic Reclosure |
|
|
116 | (1) |
|
5.7.2.5 Probability of Fault Clearing Time |
|
|
116 | (1) |
|
5.7.3 Selection of Fault Events |
|
|
117 | (1) |
|
5.7.4 Transient Stability Simulation |
|
|
117 | (1) |
|
5.7.5 Assessing Average Transient Instability Risk |
|
|
118 | (2) |
|
|
120 | (3) |
|
6 Economic Analysis Methods |
|
|
123 | (26) |
|
|
123 | (1) |
|
6.2 Cost Components of Projects |
|
|
124 | (1) |
|
6.2.1 Capital Investment Cost |
|
|
124 | (1) |
|
|
124 | (1) |
|
|
125 | (1) |
|
6.3 Time Value of Money and Present Value Method |
|
|
125 | (6) |
|
|
125 | (1) |
|
6.3.2 Conversion between Present and Future Values |
|
|
126 | (1) |
|
6.3.3 Cash Flow and Its Present Value |
|
|
127 | (1) |
|
6.3.4 Formulas for a Cash Flow with Equal Annual Values |
|
|
128 | (1) |
|
6.3.4.1 Present Value Factor |
|
|
129 | (1) |
|
|
129 | (1) |
|
6.3.4.3 Capital Return Factor |
|
|
129 | (1) |
|
6.3.4.4 Sinking Fund Factor |
|
|
130 | (1) |
|
6.3.4.5 Relationships between the Factors |
|
|
130 | (1) |
|
|
131 | (6) |
|
6.4.1 Concept of Depreciation |
|
|
131 | (1) |
|
6.4.2 Straight-Line Method |
|
|
132 | (1) |
|
6.4.3 Accelerating Methods |
|
|
133 | (1) |
|
6.4.3.1 Declining Balance Method |
|
|
133 | (1) |
|
6.4.3.2 Total Year Number Method |
|
|
134 | (1) |
|
|
135 | (1) |
|
6.4.5 Numerical Example of Depreciation |
|
|
135 | (2) |
|
6.5 Economic Assessment of Investment Projects |
|
|
137 | (5) |
|
|
137 | (2) |
|
6.5.2 Benefit/Cost Analysis |
|
|
139 | (1) |
|
6.5.2.1 Net Benefit Present Value Method |
|
|
139 | (1) |
|
6.5.2.2 Benefit/Cost Ratio Method |
|
|
139 | (1) |
|
6.5.3 Internal Rate of Return Method |
|
|
140 | (1) |
|
6.5.4 Length of Cash Flows |
|
|
141 | (1) |
|
6.6 Economic Assessment of Equipment Replacement |
|
|
142 | (2) |
|
6.6.1 Replacement Delay Analysis |
|
|
142 | (1) |
|
6.6.2 Estimating Economic Life |
|
|
143 | (1) |
|
6.7 Uncertainty Analysis in Economic Assessment |
|
|
144 | (3) |
|
6.7.1 Sensitivity Analysis |
|
|
145 | (1) |
|
6.7.2 Probabilistic Analysis |
|
|
145 | (2) |
|
|
147 | (2) |
|
7 Data In Probabilistic Transmission Planning |
|
|
149 | (32) |
|
|
149 | (1) |
|
7.2 Data for Power System Analysis |
|
|
150 | (13) |
|
7.2.1 Equipment Parameters |
|
|
150 | (1) |
|
7.2.1.1 Parameters of Overhead Line |
|
|
150 | (2) |
|
7.2.1.2 Parameters of Cable |
|
|
152 | (1) |
|
7.2.1.3 Parameters of Transformer |
|
|
153 | (2) |
|
7.2.1.4 Parameters of Synchronous Generator |
|
|
155 | (1) |
|
7.2.1.5 Parameters of Other Equipment |
|
|
155 | (1) |
|
|
155 | (2) |
|
7.2.2.1 Current Carrying Capacity of Overhead Line |
|
|
157 | (1) |
|
7.2.2.2 Current Carrying Capacity of Cable |
|
|
158 | (1) |
|
7.2.2.3 Loading Capacity of Transformer |
|
|
159 | (2) |
|
7.2.3 System Operation Limits |
|
|
161 | (1) |
|
7.2.4 Bus Load Coincidence Factors |
|
|
161 | (2) |
|
7.3 Reliability Data in Probabilistic Planning |
|
|
163 | (13) |
|
7.3.1 General Concepts of Reliability Data |
|
|
163 | (1) |
|
7.3.2 Equipment Outage Indices |
|
|
164 | (1) |
|
7.3.2.1 Outage Duration (OD) |
|
|
165 | (1) |
|
7.3.2.2 Outage Frequency (OF) |
|
|
166 | (1) |
|
7.3.2.3 Unavailability (U) |
|
|
167 | (1) |
|
7.2.3.4 Calculating Equipment Outage Indices |
|
|
167 | (2) |
|
7.2.3.5 Examples of Equipment Outage Indices |
|
|
169 | (2) |
|
7.3.3 Delivery Point Indices |
|
|
171 | (1) |
|
7.3.3.1 Definitions of Delivery Point Indices |
|
|
172 | (3) |
|
7.3.3.2 Examples of Delivery Point Indices |
|
|
175 | (1) |
|
|
176 | (2) |
|
7.4.1 Data of Generation Sources |
|
|
176 | (1) |
|
7.4.2 Data for Interconnections |
|
|
177 | (1) |
|
7.4.3 Data for Economic Analysis |
|
|
177 | (1) |
|
|
178 | (3) |
|
8 Fuzzy Techniques For Data Uncertainty |
|
|
181 | (34) |
|
|
181 | (1) |
|
8.2 Fuzzy Models of System Component Outages |
|
|
182 | (8) |
|
|
183 | (1) |
|
8.2.1.1 Fuzzy Model for Repair Time |
|
|
183 | (2) |
|
8.2.1.2 Fuzzy Model for Outage Rate |
|
|
185 | (1) |
|
8.2.1.3 Fuzzy Model for Unavailability |
|
|
186 | (1) |
|
8.2.2 Weather-Related Fuzzy Models |
|
|
186 | (1) |
|
8.2.2.1 Exposure to One Weather Condition |
|
|
186 | (1) |
|
8.2.2.2 Exposure to Two Weather Conditions |
|
|
187 | (1) |
|
8.2.2.3 Exposure to Multiple Weather Conditions |
|
|
188 | (2) |
|
8.3 Mixed Fuzzy and Probabilistic Models for Loads |
|
|
190 | (2) |
|
8.3.1 Fuzzy Model for Peak Load |
|
|
190 | (1) |
|
8.3.2 Probabilistic Model for Load Curve |
|
|
190 | (2) |
|
8.4 Combined Probabilistic and Fuzzy Techniques |
|
|
192 | (4) |
|
8.4.1 Probabilistic Representation for Region-Divided Weather States |
|
|
192 | (1) |
|
8.4.2 Hybrid Reliability Assessment Method |
|
|
193 | (1) |
|
8.4.2.1 Evaluating Membership Functions of Reliability Indices |
|
|
193 | (3) |
|
8.4.2.2 Defuzzification of Membership Functions |
|
|
196 | (1) |
|
8.5 Example 1: Case Study Not Considering Weather Effects |
|
|
196 | (6) |
|
|
196 | (2) |
|
8.5.2 Membership Functions of Reliability Indices |
|
|
198 | (4) |
|
8.6 Example 2: Case Study Considering Weather Effects |
|
|
202 | (10) |
|
|
202 | (2) |
|
8.6.2 Membership Functions of Reliability Indices |
|
|
204 | (7) |
|
8.6.3 Comparisons between Fuzzy and Traditional Models |
|
|
211 | (1) |
|
|
212 | (3) |
|
9 Network Reinforcement Planning |
|
|
215 | (22) |
|
|
215 | (1) |
|
9.2 Probabilistic Planning of Bulk Power Supply System |
|
|
216 | (9) |
|
9.2.1 Description of Problem |
|
|
216 | (1) |
|
9.2.2 Economic Comparison between Two Options |
|
|
217 | (1) |
|
9.2.3 Reliability Evaluation Method |
|
|
217 | (2) |
|
9.2.4 Reliability Comparison between Two Options |
|
|
219 | (1) |
|
|
219 | (1) |
|
9.2.4.2 EENS (Expected Energy Not Supplied) Indices |
|
|
220 | (1) |
|
9.2.5 Effect of the Existing HVDC Subsystem |
|
|
221 | (1) |
|
9.2.5.1 Comparison between Cases with and without the Existing HVDC |
|
|
221 | (1) |
|
9.2.5.2 Effect of Replacing a Reactor of the Existing HVDC |
|
|
222 | (1) |
|
9.2.5.3 Comparison between the 230-kV AC Line and Existing HVDC |
|
|
223 | (1) |
|
|
224 | (1) |
|
9.3 Probabilistic Planning of Transmission Loop Network |
|
|
225 | (9) |
|
9.3.1 Description of Problem |
|
|
225 | (1) |
|
|
225 | (2) |
|
|
227 | (1) |
|
|
227 | (1) |
|
9.3.3.2 Evaluating Unreliability Cost |
|
|
227 | (1) |
|
9.3.3.3 Evaluating Energy Loss Cost |
|
|
228 | (1) |
|
9.3.3.4 Evaluating Annual Investment Cost |
|
|
229 | (1) |
|
9.3.3.5 Calculating Present Values of Costs |
|
|
229 | (1) |
|
|
229 | (1) |
|
9.3.4.1 Unreliability Costs |
|
|
229 | (1) |
|
9.3.4.2 Energy Loss Costs |
|
|
230 | (1) |
|
9.3.4.3 Cash Flows of Annual Investments |
|
|
231 | (1) |
|
9.3.4.4 Benefit/Cost Analysis |
|
|
232 | (2) |
|
|
234 | (1) |
|
|
234 | (3) |
|
10 Retirement Planning Of Network Components |
|
|
237 | (22) |
|
|
237 | (1) |
|
10.2 Retirement Timing of an Aged AC Cable |
|
|
238 | (9) |
|
10.2.1 Description of Problem |
|
|
239 | (1) |
|
10.2.2 Methodology in Retirement Planning |
|
|
239 | (1) |
|
|
239 | (1) |
|
10.2.2.2 Evaluating Parameters in the Weibull Model |
|
|
240 | (1) |
|
10.2.2.3 Evaluating Unavailability of System Components |
|
|
241 | (1) |
|
10.2.2.4 Evaluating Expected Damage Cost Caused by End-of-Life Failure |
|
|
241 | (2) |
|
10.2.2.5 Economic Analysis Approach |
|
|
243 | (1) |
|
10.2.3 Application to Retirement of the Aged AC Cable |
|
|
244 | (1) |
|
10.2.3.1 α and β in the Weibull Model |
|
|
244 | (1) |
|
10.2.3.2 Unavailability Due to End-of-Life Failure |
|
|
244 | (1) |
|
10.2.3.3 Expected Damage Costs |
|
|
245 | (1) |
|
10.2.3.4 Economic Comparison |
|
|
246 | (1) |
|
|
247 | (1) |
|
10.3 Replacement Strategy of an HVDC Cable |
|
|
247 | (10) |
|
10.3.1 Description of Problem |
|
|
247 | (2) |
|
10.3.2 Methodology in Replacement Strategy |
|
|
249 | (1) |
|
|
249 | (1) |
|
10.3.2.2 Evaluating Capacity State Probability of HVDC Subsystem |
|
|
250 | (1) |
|
10.3.2.3 Evaluating Reliability of Overall System |
|
|
250 | (1) |
|
10.3.2.4 Benefit/Cost Analysis of Replacement Strategies |
|
|
251 | (1) |
|
10.3.3 Application to Replacement of the Damaged HVDC Cable |
|
|
251 | (1) |
|
10.3.3.1 Study Conditions |
|
|
251 | (1) |
|
10.3.3.2 Capacity Probability Distributions of HVDC Subsystem |
|
|
252 | (2) |
|
10.3.3.3 EENS Indices of Supply System |
|
|
254 | (1) |
|
10.3.3.4 Strategy Analysis of Three Replacement Options |
|
|
255 | (2) |
|
|
257 | (1) |
|
|
257 | (2) |
|
|
259 | (24) |
|
|
259 | (1) |
|
11.2 Probabilistic Planning of Substation Configuration |
|
|
260 | (12) |
|
11.2.1 Description of Problem |
|
|
260 | (1) |
|
|
261 | (1) |
|
11.2.2.1 Simplified Minimum Cutset Technique for Reliability Evaluation |
|
|
261 | (4) |
|
11.2.2.2 Economic Analysis Approach |
|
|
265 | (1) |
|
11.2.3 Comparison between the Two Configurations |
|
|
266 | (1) |
|
11.2.3.1 Study Conditions and Data |
|
|
266 | (1) |
|
11.2.3.2 Reliability Results |
|
|
267 | (3) |
|
11.2.3.3 Economic Comparison |
|
|
270 | (1) |
|
11.2.3.4 Other Considerations |
|
|
271 | (1) |
|
|
272 | (1) |
|
11.3 Transformer Spare Planning |
|
|
272 | (8) |
|
11.3.1 Description of Problem |
|
|
272 | (1) |
|
11.3.2 Method of Probabilistic Spare Planning |
|
|
273 | (1) |
|
|
273 | (1) |
|
11.3.2.2 Reliability Evaluation Technique for a Transformer Group |
|
|
274 | (1) |
|
11.3.2.3 Reliability Criterion |
|
|
275 | (1) |
|
|
276 | (1) |
|
11.3.3.1 Case Description |
|
|
276 | (1) |
|
11.3.3.2 Fixed Turn Ratio Transformer Group |
|
|
276 | (2) |
|
11.3.3.3 On-Load Tap Changer (OLTC) Transformer Group |
|
|
278 | (1) |
|
11.3.3.4 Combined Fixed Turn Ratio and OLTC Transformer Group |
|
|
278 | (2) |
|
|
280 | (1) |
|
|
280 | (3) |
|
12 Single-Circuit Supply System Planning |
|
|
283 | (26) |
|
|
283 | (2) |
|
12.2 Reliability Performance of Single-Circuit Supply Systems |
|
|
285 | (3) |
|
12.2.1 Delivery Point Reliability Indices |
|
|
285 | (1) |
|
12.2.2 Contributions of Different Components to Reliability Indices |
|
|
286 | (2) |
|
12.3 Planning Method of Single-Circuit Supply Systems |
|
|
288 | (10) |
|
12.3.1 Basic and Weighted Reliability Indices |
|
|
288 | (1) |
|
12.3.1.1 Basic Reliability Indices |
|
|
289 | (3) |
|
12.3.1.2 Weighted Reliability Index |
|
|
292 | (1) |
|
12.3.2 Unit Incremental Reliability Value Approach |
|
|
293 | (1) |
|
12.3.2.1 Annual Capital Investment |
|
|
293 | (1) |
|
12.3.2.2 Unit Incremental Reliability Value |
|
|
293 | (1) |
|
12.3.3 Benefit/Cost Ratio Approach |
|
|
294 | (1) |
|
12.3.3.1 Expected Damage Cost |
|
|
294 | (1) |
|
12.3.3.2 Benefit/Cost Ratio |
|
|
295 | (1) |
|
12.3.4 Procedure of Single-Circuit Supply System Planning |
|
|
296 | (2) |
|
12.4 Application to Actual Utility System |
|
|
298 | (9) |
|
12.4.1 Short List Based on Weighted Reliability Index |
|
|
298 | (3) |
|
12.4.2 Financial Justification of Reinforcement |
|
|
301 | (1) |
|
12.4.3 Ranking Priority of Single-Circuit Systems |
|
|
302 | (5) |
|
|
307 | (2) |
|
APPENDIX A ELEMENTS OF PROBABILITY THEORY AND STATISTICS |
|
|
309 | (12) |
|
A.1 Probability Operation Rules |
|
|
309 | (1) |
|
|
309 | (1) |
|
|
310 | (1) |
|
A.1.3 Conditional Probability |
|
|
310 | (1) |
|
A.2 Four Important Probability Distributions |
|
|
310 | (3) |
|
A.2.1 Binomial Distribution |
|
|
310 | (1) |
|
A.2.2 Exponential Distribution |
|
|
311 | (1) |
|
A.2.3 Normal Distribution |
|
|
311 | (1) |
|
A.2.4 Weibull Distribution |
|
|
312 | (1) |
|
A.3 Measures of Probability Distribution |
|
|
313 | (1) |
|
A.3.1 Mathematical Expectation |
|
|
313 | (1) |
|
A.3.2 Variance and Standard Deviation |
|
|
313 | (1) |
|
A.3.3 Covariance and Correlation Coefficient |
|
|
314 | (1) |
|
|
314 | (2) |
|
A.4.1 Maximum Likelihood Estimation |
|
|
314 | (1) |
|
A.4.2 Mean, Variance, and Covariance of Samples |
|
|
315 | (1) |
|
A.4.3 Interval Estimation |
|
|
315 | (1) |
|
A.5 Monte Carlo Simulation |
|
|
316 | (5) |
|
|
316 | (1) |
|
A.5.2 Random-Number Generator |
|
|
317 | (1) |
|
A.5.3 Inverse Transform Method |
|
|
317 | (1) |
|
A.5.4 Three Important Random Variates |
|
|
318 | (1) |
|
A.5.4.1 Exponential Distribution Random Variate |
|
|
318 | (1) |
|
A.5.4.2 Normal Distribution Random Variate |
|
|
318 | (1) |
|
A.5.4.3 Weibull Distribution Random Variate |
|
|
319 | (2) |
|
APPENDIX B ELEMENTS OF FUZZY MATHEMATICS |
|
|
321 | (8) |
|
|
321 | (2) |
|
B.1.1 Definition of Fuzzy Set |
|
|
321 | (1) |
|
B.1.2 Operations of Fuzzy Sets |
|
|
322 | (1) |
|
|
323 | (2) |
|
B.2.1 Definition of Fuzzy Number |
|
|
323 | (1) |
|
B.2.2 Arithmetic Operation Rules of Fuzzy Numbers |
|
|
323 | (1) |
|
|
323 | (1) |
|
|
323 | (1) |
|
|
323 | (1) |
|
|
324 | (1) |
|
B.2.2.5 Maximum and Minimum Operations |
|
|
324 | (1) |
|
B.2.3 Functional Operation of Fuzzy Numbers |
|
|
324 | (1) |
|
B.3 Two Typical Fuzzy Numbers in Engineering Applications |
|
|
325 | (1) |
|
B.3.1 Triangular Fuzzy Number |
|
|
325 | (1) |
|
B.3.2 Trapezoidal Fuzzy Number |
|
|
325 | (1) |
|
|
326 | (3) |
|
|
326 | (1) |
|
|
327 | (1) |
|
|
327 | (1) |
|
|
327 | (1) |
|
|
327 | (1) |
|
|
327 | (1) |
|
B.4.2 Operations of Fuzzy Matrices |
|
|
327 | (2) |
|
APPENDIX C ELEMENTS OF RELIABILITY EVALUATION |
|
|
329 | (12) |
|
|
329 | (2) |
|
C.1.1 Reliability Functions |
|
|
329 | (1) |
|
C.1.2 Model of Repairable Component |
|
|
330 | (1) |
|
C.2 Crisp Reliability Evaluation |
|
|
331 | (4) |
|
C.2.1 Series and Parallel Networks |
|
|
331 | (1) |
|
|
331 | (1) |
|
|
332 | (1) |
|
|
333 | (1) |
|
|
333 | (2) |
|
C.3 Fuzzy Reliability Evaluation |
|
|
335 | (6) |
|
C.3.1 Series and Parallel Networks Using Fuzzy Numbers |
|
|
335 | (1) |
|
C.3.2 Minimum Cutset Approach Using Fuzzy Numbers |
|
|
336 | (2) |
|
C.3.3 Fuzzy Markov Models |
|
|
338 | (1) |
|
C.3.3.1 Approach Based on Analytical Expressions |
|
|
338 | (1) |
|
C.3.3.2 Approach Based on Numerical Computations |
|
|
339 | (2) |
References |
|
341 | (8) |
Index |
|
349 | |