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Simulating Nature: A Philosophical Study of Computer-Simulation Uncertainties and Their Role in Climate Science and Policy Advice, Second Edition 2nd edition [Paperback / softback]

  • Format: Paperback / softback, 224 pages, height x width: 234x156 mm, weight: 340 g, 5 Tables, black and white; 10 Illustrations, black and white
  • Pub. Date: 24-Apr-2012
  • Publisher: CRC Press Inc
  • ISBN-10: 146650062X
  • ISBN-13: 9781466500624
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  • Format: Paperback / softback, 224 pages, height x width: 234x156 mm, weight: 340 g, 5 Tables, black and white; 10 Illustrations, black and white
  • Pub. Date: 24-Apr-2012
  • Publisher: CRC Press Inc
  • ISBN-10: 146650062X
  • ISBN-13: 9781466500624
Other books in subject:
Petersen (Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency) explores uncertainty in computer simulations of climate change and in climate change policy. He updates his 2006 account, incorporating recent developments in scientific simulation practice, uncertainty, and policy advice in general and how those factors play out in simulating climate change in particular. Annotation ©2012 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)

Computer simulation has become an important means for obtaining knowledge about nature. The practice of scientific simulation and the frequent use of uncertain simulation results in public policy raise a wide range of philosophical questions. Most prominently highlighted is the field of anthropogenic climate change—are humans currently changing the climate?

Referring to empirical results from science studies and political science, Simulating Nature: A Philosophical Study of Computer-Simulation Uncertainties and Their Role in Climate Science and Policy Advice, Second Edition addresses questions about the types of uncertainty associated with scientific simulation and about how these uncertainties can be communicated.

The author, who participated in the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plenaries in 2001 and 2007, discusses the assessment reports and workings of the IPCC. This second edition reflects the latest developments in climate change policy, including a thorough update and rewriting of sections that refer to the IPCC.

Reviews

"This book can be considered a conceptual book for high-level graduate students as well as scholars from climatology-related fields who wish to understand the philosophy underlying computer-based simulation of climate." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 2015

"Simulating Nature is deeply rooted in applied statistics with a welcome openness to a few concepts such as risk, values, and uncertainties. This not-so-frequent-nowadays philosophical dimension in statistics is perhaps the strength of this book and that is why it would be important for graduate students who are already familiar with simulation and applied statistics. On the other hand, philosophers, experts in ethics, policymakers, and sociologists of science would certainly be able to follow most of the demonstrations on climate change, but they would probably focus as well on how these concepts and ideas are discussed and legitimised in this book." Yves Laberge, Journal of Applied Statistics, 40, 2013

"Amongst the heated politics of climate science, Petersens book does a rare thing. As a philosopher he takes a step back and asks, What sort of knowledge is generated by climate models: is it reliable, is it authoritative, how is it used, is it useful? This new edition, fully updated six years after the first, should be read by all those producing or using, criticising or praising, believing or disbelieving, knowledge claims based on climate models. At the least, you will better be able to defend your position; and you may even find yourself changing it." Mike Hulme, professor of climate change, University of East Anglia, UK

"In this thought-provoking philosophical analysis, Arthur Petersen explores the nature of climate simulation and attendant uncertainties. Building on this evaluation, Petersen considers the complex processes within the scientific community, and between scientists and society, that ultimately determine whether an assessment becomes a robust, shared basis for decision, or contested and a source of dispute. He points out that it is not enough to analyze uncertainty as a purely technical problem. Deeper uncertainties such as those that stem from the way the problem is framed, models are structured, or expert judgments are made, must also be considered. His analysis has implications not only for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other assessment bodies, but for all who debate the reliability and utility of model simulations as a basis for managing environmental risks in the anthropocene era." Richard Moss, senior staff scientist, PNNL Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, USA

Preface to the Second Edition ix
Preface to the First Edition xi
About the Author xiii
List of Abbreviations and Acronyms
xv
1 Introduction
1(16)
1.1 Background
1(2)
1.2 Framing of the Problem
3(3)
1.3 Defining Computer Simulation and Positioning It in Science
6(4)
1.4 Philosophical Approach
10(4)
1.5 Brief Outline of This Study
14(3)
Section I Simulation Practice, Uncertainty, and Policy Advice
2 The Practice of Scientific Simulation
17(32)
2.1 Introduction
17(1)
2.2 The Simulation Laboratory
18(4)
2.3 Elements of Simulation-Laboratory Practice
22(15)
2.3.1 Conceptual and Mathematical Model: General Theory, Models, and Parameterisations
22(5)
2.3.2 Model Inputs: Proximity of Simulation and Material Experimentation
27(2)
2.3.3 Technical Model Implementation: The Reproducibility of Simulation
29(6)
2.3.4 Processed Output Data and Their Interpretation: Visualisation and Understanding
35(2)
2.4 Plurality of Methodologies for Model Development and Evaluation
37(5)
2.5 Plurality of Values in Simulation Practice
42(3)
2.6 The Practices of Simulation and Experimentation Compared
45(2)
2.7 Conclusion
47(2)
3 A Typology of Uncertainty in Scientific Simulation
49(16)
3.1 Introduction
49(3)
3.2 Locations of Simulation Uncertainty
52(1)
3.3 The Nature of Simulation Uncertainty
52(1)
3.4 The Range of Simulation Uncertainty
53(3)
3.5 Recognised Ignorance in Simulation
56(2)
3.6 The Methodological Unreliability of Simulation
58(4)
3.6.1 The Theoretical Basis of Simulations
58(2)
3.6.2 The Empirical Basis of Simulation
60(1)
3.6.3 Agreement of Simulations among Each Other
61(1)
3.6.4 Peer Consensus on the Results of Simulations
61(1)
3.7 Value Diversity in Simulation Practice
62(1)
3.8 The Uncertainties of Simulation and Experimentation Compared
63(1)
3.9 Conclusion
64(1)
4 Assessment of Simulation Uncertainty for Policy Advice
65(30)
4.1 Introduction
65(3)
4.2 The Sound Science Debate
68(2)
4.3 The Challenge of Postnormal Science
70(7)
4.4 The Role of Simulation Uncertainty in Policy Advice
77(7)
4.5 The Guidance on Uncertainty Assessment and Communication
84(8)
4.6 Conclusion
92(3)
Section II The Case of Simulating Climate Change
5 The Practice of Climate Simulation
95(22)
5.1 Introduction
95(4)
5.2 Functions of Climate Simulation
99(3)
5.3 Varying Climate-Model Concreteness
102(9)
5.4 The Sociopolitical Context of Climate-Simulation Practice
111(3)
5.5 Evaluating the Plurality of Climate-Simulation Models
114(2)
5.6 Conclusion
116(1)
6 Uncertainties in Climate Simulation
117(20)
6.1 Introduction
117(4)
6.2 A General Overview of Uncertainty in Climate Simulation
121(6)
6.3 Climate-Simulation Uncertainty and the Causal Attribution of Temperature Change
127(8)
6.4 Conclusion
135(2)
7 Assessments of Climate-Simulation Uncertainty for Policy Advice
137(34)
7.1 Introduction
137(4)
7.2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Its Communication of Climate-Simulation Uncertainty
141(23)
7.2.1 The IPCC Review Process
150(5)
7.2.2 Sceptical Criticism of the Review Process
155(5)
7.2.3 Negotiating the Wording of the Summary for Policymakers
160(2)
7.2.4 IPCC Guidance Materials for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication
162(2)
7.3 An Example of Exploiting Societal Perspectives to Communicate Climate-Simulation Uncertainty
164(4)
7.4 Conclusion
168(3)
8 Conclusions
171(8)
8.1 Uncertainty Associated with Scientific Simulation
171(3)
8.2 Differences and Similarities between Simulation and Experimental Uncertainty
174(2)
8.3 Assessment and Communication of Scientific Simulation Uncertainties in Science-for-Policy
176(1)
8.4 Uncertainty Associated with the Simulation-Based Attribution of Climate Change to Human Influences
176(1)
8.5 Assessment and Communication of Attribution Uncertainty by the IPCC
177(2)
References 179(12)
Appendix: Proceedings and Discussion of the IPCC Contact Group Meeting on Attribution, 20 January 2001, Shanghai 191(8)
Index 199
Arthur C. Petersen