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Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies [Pehme köide]

(Professor in the Faculty of Philosophy & Oxford Martin School and Director, Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford)
  • Formaat: Paperback / softback, 432 pages, kõrgus x laius x paksus: 195x130x23 mm, kaal: 448 g, black and white line drawings and halftones
  • Ilmumisaeg: 29-Mar-2016
  • Kirjastus: Oxford University Press
  • ISBN-10: 0198739834
  • ISBN-13: 9780198739838
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  • Formaat: Paperback / softback, 432 pages, kõrgus x laius x paksus: 195x130x23 mm, kaal: 448 g, black and white line drawings and halftones
  • Ilmumisaeg: 29-Mar-2016
  • Kirjastus: Oxford University Press
  • ISBN-10: 0198739834
  • ISBN-13: 9780198739838
The human brain has some capabilities that the brains of other animals lack. It is to these distinctive capabilities that our species owes its dominant position. Other animals have stronger muscles or sharper claws, but we have cleverer brains.

If machine brains one day come to surpass human brains in general intelligence, then this new superintelligence could become very powerful. As the fate of the gorillas now depends more on us humans than on the gorillas themselves, so the fate of our species then would come to depend on the actions of the machine superintelligence.

But we have one advantage: we get to make the first move. Will it be possible to construct a seed AI or otherwise to engineer initial conditions so as to make an intelligence explosion survivable? How could one achieve a controlled detonation?

To get closer to an answer to this question, we must make our way through a fascinating landscape of topics and considerations. Read the book and learn about oracles, genies, singletons; about boxing methods, tripwires, and mind crime; about humanity's cosmic endowment and differential technological development; indirect normativity, instrumental convergence, whole brain emulation and technology couplings; Malthusian economics and dystopian evolution; artificial intelligence, and biological cognitive enhancement, and collective intelligence.

This profoundly ambitious and original book picks its way carefully through a vast tract of forbiddingly difficult intellectual terrain. Yet the writing is so lucid that it somehow makes it all seem easy. After an utterly engrossing journey that takes us to the frontiers of thinking about the human condition and the future of intelligent life, we find in Nick Bostrom's work nothing less than a reconceptualization of the essential task of our time.

Arvustused

Every intelligent person should read it. * Nils Nilsson, Artificial Intelligence Pioneer, Stanford University * A damn hard read * Sunday Telegraph * Worth reading.... We need to be super careful with AI. Potentially more dangerous than nukes * Elon Musk, Founder of SpaceX and Tesla * There is no doubting the force of [ Bostrom's] arguments the problem is a research challenge worthy of the next generations best mathematical talent. Human civilisation is at stake * Financial Times * Valuable. The implications of introducing a second intelligent species onto Earth are far-reaching enough to deserve hard thinking * The Economist * Terribly important ... groundbreaking... extraordinary sagacity and clarity, enabling him to combine his wide-ranging knowledge over an impressively broad spectrum of disciplines - engineering, natural sciences, medicine, social sciences and philosophy - into a comprehensible whole... If this book gets the reception that it deserves, it may turn out the most important alarm bell since Rachel Carson's Silent Spring from 1962, or ever * Olle Haggstrom, Professor of Mathematical Statistics * This superb analysis by one of the worlds clearest thinkers tackles one of humanitys greatest challenges: if future superhuman artificial intelligence becomes the biggest event in human history, then how can we ensure that it doesnt become the last? * Max Tegmark, Professor of Physics, MIT * Those disposed to dismiss an 'AI takeover' as science fiction may think again after reading this original and well-argued book * Martin Rees, Past President, Royal Society * Nick Bostrom makes a persuasive case that the future impact of AI is perhaps the most important issue the human race has ever faced. Instead of passively drifting, we need to steer a course. Superintelligence charts the submerged rocks of the future with unprecedented detail. It marks the beginning of a new era * Stuart Russell, Professor of Computer Science, University of California, Berkley * I highly recommend this book * Bill Gates *

Lists of Figures, Tables, and Boxes
xv
1 Past developments and present capabilities
1(25)
Growth modes and big history
1(3)
Great expectations
4(2)
Seasons of hope and despair
6(8)
State of the art
14(8)
Opinions about the future of machine intelligence
22(4)
2 Paths to superintelligence
26(37)
Artificial intelligence
27(8)
Whole brain emulation
35(8)
Biological cognition
43(11)
Brain-computer interfaces
54(4)
Networks and organizations
58(3)
Summary
61(2)
3 Forms of superintelligence
63(12)
Speed superintelligence
64(1)
Collective superintelligence
65(3)
Quality superintelligence
68(2)
Direct and indirect reach
70(1)
Sources of advantage for digital intelligence
71(4)
4 The kinetics of an intelligence explosion
75(20)
Timing and speed of the takeoff
75(5)
Recalcitrance
80(9)
Non-machine intelligence paths
80(2)
Emulation and Al paths
82(7)
Optimization power and explosivity
89(6)
5 Decisive strategic advantage
95(15)
Will the frontrunner get a decisive strategic advantage?
96(5)
How large will the successful project be?
101(5)
Monitoring
102(2)
International collaboration
104(2)
From decisive strategic advantage to singleton
106(4)
6 Cognitive superpowers
110(17)
Functionalities and superpowers
111(4)
An AI takeover scenario
115(5)
Power over nature and agents
120(7)
7 The superintelligent will
127(13)
The relation between intelligence and motivation
127(4)
Instrumental convergence
131(9)
Self-preservation
132(1)
Goal-content integrity
132(2)
Cognitive enhancement
134(2)
Technological perfection
136(1)
Resource acquisition
137(3)
8 Is the default outcome doom?
140(15)
Existential catastrophe as the default outcome of an intelligence explosion?
140(2)
The treacherous turn
142(4)
Malignant failure modes
146(9)
Perverse instantiation
146(3)
Infrastructure profusion
149(4)
Mind crime
153(2)
9 The control problem
155(22)
Two agency problems
155(2)
Capability control methods
157(12)
Boxing methods
158(2)
Incentive methods
160(3)
Stunting
163(4)
Tripwires
167(2)
Motivation selection methods
169(6)
Direct specification
169(3)
Domesticity
172(1)
Indirect normativity
173(1)
Augmentation
173(2)
Synopsis
175(2)
10 Oracles, genies, sovereigns, tools
177(17)
Oracles
177(4)
Genies and sovereigns
181(3)
Tool-AIs
184(6)
Comparison
190(4)
11 Multipolar scenarios
194(32)
Of horses and men
195(8)
Wages and unemployment
195(2)
Capital and welfare
197(2)
The Malthusian principle in a historical perspective
199(2)
Population growth and investment
201(2)
Life in an algorithmic economy
203(13)
Voluntary slavery, casual death
204(3)
Would maximally efficient work be fun?
207(3)
Unconscious outsourcers?
210(2)
Evolution is not necessarily up
212(4)
Post-transition formation of a singleton?
216(10)
A second transition
216(2)
Superorganisms and scale economies
218(2)
Unification by treaty
220(6)
12 Acquiring values
226(30)
The value-loading problem
226(3)
Evolutionary selection
229(1)
Reinforcement learning
230(1)
Associative value accretion
231(2)
Motivational scaffolding
233(2)
Value learning
235(11)
Emulation modulation
246(1)
Institution design
247(6)
Synopsis
253(3)
13 Choosing the criteria for choosing
256(24)
The need for indirect normativity
256(3)
Coherent extrapolated volition
259(7)
Some explications
260(2)
Rationales for CEV
262(2)
Further remarks
264(2)
Morality models
266(4)
Do What I Mean
270(1)
Component list
271(7)
Goal content
272(2)
Decision theory
274(1)
Epistemology
275(2)
Ratification
277(1)
Getting close enough
278(2)
14 The strategic picture
280(34)
Science and technology strategy
281(14)
Differential technological development
281(2)
Preferred order of arrival
283(3)
Rates of change and cognitive enhancement
286(5)
Technology couplings
291(2)
Second-guessing
293(2)
Pathways and enablers
295(8)
Effects of hardware progress
295(2)
Should whole brain emulation research be promoted?
297(5)
The person-affecting perspective favors speed
302(1)
Collaboration
303(11)
The race dynamic and its perils
303(3)
On the benefits of collaboration
306(5)
Working together
311(3)
15 Crunch time
314(7)
Philosophy with a deadline
314(1)
What is to be done?
315(4)
Seeking the strategic light
317(1)
Building good capacity
317(1)
Particular measures
318(1)
Will the best in human nature please stand up
319(2)
Afterword 321(4)
Notes 325(58)
Bibliography 383(24)
Partial Glossary 407(4)
Index 411
Nick Bostrom is Professor in the Faculty of Philosophy at Oxford University and founding Director of the Strategic Artificial Intelligence Research Centre and of the Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology within the Oxford Martin School. He is the author of some 200 publications, including Anthropic Bias (Routledge, 2002), Global Catastrophic Risks (ed., OUP, 2008), and Human Enhancement (ed., OUP, 2009). He previously taught at Yale, and he was a Postdoctoral Fellow of the British Academy. Bostrom has a background in physics, computational neuroscience, and mathematical logic as well as philosophy.

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