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E-raamat: Saudi Arabia and Nuclear Weapons: How do countries think about the bomb? [Taylor & Francis e-raamat]

(Marine Corps University, Quantico, Virginia)
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Nuclear proliferation in the Middle East remains an issue of concern. Saudi Arabia’s actions will largely rest on Iran’s decisions, and discussions and preparations within Saudi Arabia would suggest that it is ready to react to potential shifts in the region’s nuclear powers. Saudi Arabia and Nuclear Weapons uses an "inside out" approach that emphasises the Saudis’ own national interests in relation to the nuclear threat, and their understanding of the role of nuclear weapons in defense, foreign policy and the concept of deterrence. It is the first study with comprehensive use of the local Arabic language military and civilian media to provide this understanding of official thinking and policy. The Saudi case study is contextualised against the prevailing proliferation models, to conclude that the Saudi case shares both commonalities and elements of uniqueness with other proliferation cases, implying the need for a ‘multi-causal’ approach. Its comparative analysis also suggests potential implications applicable more broadly to the issue of nuclear proliferation. A comprehensive study of Saudi Arabia’s attitude to nuclear weapons, this book offers an exploration of nuclear proliferation that would interest students, scholars and policymakers working in Middle East studies, as well as Military and nuclear proliferation studies.
Preface x
1 Introduction
1(14)
Bounding the problem
1(1)
The terms of reference and methodology
2(13)
2 The dynamics of Saudi strategic culture and the decisionmaking process
15(23)
Where does Saudi thinking fit in?
15(1)
The decisionmaking process in Saudi Arabia
16(5)
The cultural facet of national security: Saudi views of Iran
21(3)
The centrality of regime legitimacy
24(14)
3 Developing nuclear threat assessments
38(10)
Threat assessments and intelligence
38(1)
The evolution of Saudi nuclear threat assessments
39(4)
Mobilizing public opinion
43(5)
4 Analyzing the threat in Riyadh: Why would a nuclear Iran be so dangerous?
48(13)
Iran's nuclear program: military or civilian?
49(1)
Creating a new Iranian hegemony
49(3)
Exporting the revolution and "offensive deterrence"
52(1)
Nuclear weapons and warfighting
53(3)
The threat to Saudi Arabia's economy
56(5)
5 Thinking in terms of solutions: How to stop Iran
61(17)
Doing nothing and accommodating Iran
61(2)
A foreign nuclear umbrella as an alternative?
63(4)
Considering the active options---striking or squeezing Iran's nuclear program?
67(4)
Watching and waiting
71(7)
6 Thinking in terms of solutions: The evolution in Saudi thinking toward a nuclear option
78(24)
Saudi Arabia's traditional stand on nuclear weapons
78(1)
The shift to promoting nuclear weapons
79(3)
Developing the conceptual thinking and policy considerations for nuclear weapons
82(7)
Accounting for Saudi openness
89(1)
The potential mechanics of acquisition
90(12)
7 Thinking about the utility of nuclear weapons: Deterrence and beyond
102(27)
Conceptualizing nuclear deterrence
102(5)
Saudi Arabia in a hostile world and the political power of nuclear weapons
107(4)
Drawing lessons from North Korea
111(3)
How to implement deterrence
114(3)
Developing the country's supporting infrastructure
117(12)
8 Where does the civilian nuclear power sector fit in? Riyadh's civilian nuclear energy plans
129(8)
Nuclear energy and national security
130(7)
9 A nuclear environment and foreign policy: Reshaping relations within the Gulf
137(12)
Confirming Saudi Arabia's leading role in the Gulf Cooperation Council
137(1)
Flexing a potential Saudi nuclear muscle
138(1)
Increasing Saudi leverage with the international community
139(1)
Promoting the idea of GCC union
140(1)
Gulf responses
141(8)
10 The Rouhani era in Tehran and a new age of anxiety in Riyadh
149(37)
A new president for Iran
149(2)
The difficult Riyadh---Tehran---Washington triangle
151(5)
Iran's nuclear threat, Riyadh, and the GCC
156(2)
The long wait and mounting Saudi anxiety
158(5)
Intensifying activism abroad to influence the nuclear negotiations
163(3)
The April 2015 Framework Agreement and the May 2015 Camp David Summit
166(4)
Riyadh's continuing nuclear warnings
170(16)
11 Coming to terms with the 14 July 2015 nuclear agreement: Saudi anxiety overcome?
186(26)
The July 2015 Nuclear Agreement: initial Saudi reactions
186(1)
The Saudi media: "debating" the Agreement
187(6)
The way forward
193(2)
Who's to blame?
195(1)
Closing the circle---King Salman's September 2015 visit to Washington
196(16)
12 Conclusions and implications
212(24)
A Saudi nuclear path is likely... if...
212(3)
Saudi Arabia and proliferation models: commonalities and uniqueness
215(1)
Does the realist model apply?
215(2)
The models of restraint
217(5)
Saudi Arabia: a complex case
222(1)
International leverage on proliferation may sometimes be limited
223(2)
Modifying the threat environment can help
225(1)
Opening the door to further proliferation?
226(1)
Saudi nuclear proliferation: does it matter?
227(9)
Index 236
Norman Cigar is a research fellow at the Marine Corps University, from which he retired as Director of Regional Studies. His research focuses on WMD and jihadist warfare in the Middle East, and he is the author of Saddams Nuclear Vision: An Atomic Shield and Sword for Conquest.