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Decisions Over Decimals: Striking the Balance between Intuition and Information [Hardback]

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  • Format: Hardback, 256 pages, height x width x depth: 231x160x25 mm, weight: 454 g
  • Pub. Date: 22-Sep-2022
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc
  • ISBN-10: 111989848X
  • ISBN-13: 9781119898481
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Decisions Over Decimals: Striking the Balance between Intuition and InformationLarger Image
  • Format: Hardback, 256 pages, height x width x depth: 231x160x25 mm, weight: 454 g
  • Pub. Date: 22-Sep-2022
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc
  • ISBN-10: 111989848X
  • ISBN-13: 9781119898481
Other books in subject:
Permanent link: https://www.kriso.ee/db/9781119898481.html
Keywords:
Become a confident leader and use data, experience, and intuition to drive your decisions

Agile decision making is imperative as you lead in a data-driven world. Amid streams of data and countless meetings, we make hasty decisions, slow decisions, and often no decisions. Uniquely bridging theory and practice, Decisions Over Decimals breaks this pattern by uniting data intelligence with human judgment to get to action — a sharp approach the authors refer to as Quantitative Intuition (QI). QI raises the power of thinking beyond big data without neglecting it and chasing the perfect decision while appreciating that such a thing can never really exist.

Successful decision-makers are fierce interrogators. They square critical thinking with open-mindedness by blending information, intuition, and experience. Balancing these elements is at the heart of Decisions Over Decimals.

This book is not only designed to be read - but frequently referenced - as you face innumerable decision moments. It is the hands-on manual for confident, accurate decision-making you've been looking for; the rare resource that provides a set of pragmatic leadership tools to accelerate:

  • Effectively framing the problem for stakeholders
  • Synthesizing intelligence from incomplete information
  • Delivering decisions that stick

Strike the right balance between information and intuition and lead the smarter way with the real-world guidance found in Decisions Over Decimals.
Foreword xi
Preface xiii
Prologue: The Certainty Myth xix
Quantitative Intuition (QI)™ xx
Why Quantitative Intuition™ xxviii
Biases from Working Intuitively xxxiii
Biases from Working with Data xxxvi
Chapter 1 Asking Powerful Questions
1(14)
Road to Powerful Questioning
3(1)
Precision Questioning
3(2)
The Power of Precision Questions
5(1)
Building an Inquisitive Team
6(4)
The Smartest Person in the Room
10(3)
Key Learnings
Chapter 1
13(2)
Chapter 2 Framing The Problem
15(18)
IWIK™: A Tool for Reasoning
17(1)
The rWIK™ Process
18(12)
Framing the Decision
30(1)
Key Learnings
Chapter 2
31(2)
Chapter 3 Working Backward To Move Forward
33(16)
Defining the Problem
35(7)
Harnessing Inside of-the-Box Thinking
42(3)
Taking the Road Less Traveled
45(3)
Key Learnings
Chapter 3
48(1)
Chapter 4 Learning To Become A Fierce Data Interrogator
49(24)
Assessing the Data and Its Reliability
51(13)
Putting the Data in Context
64(2)
Pressure Testing Your Analysis
66(5)
Key Learnings
Chapter 4
71(2)
Chapter 5 Developing Intuition For Numbers
73(16)
The Power of Approximations
74(2)
Learning to Approximate
76(2)
Approximating in Practice
78(2)
Why Guesstimation Works
80(2)
Getting Comfortable with Approximations
82(4)
Guesstimation in the QI Framework
86(1)
Key Learnings
Chapter 5
86(3)
Chapter 6 From Analysis To Synthesis
89(12)
The Value of Synthesis
90(3)
Make Your Bottom Line Your Top Line
93(2)
The Lack of Synthesis
95(2)
Encouraging Synthesis
97(2)
"What?", "So What?", and "Now What'"
99(1)
Key Learnings
Chapter 6
100(1)
Chapter 7 The Decision Moment
101(24)
Dimensions of the Decision Moment
102(1)
The First Two Dimensions: Time and Risk
103(3)
The Third Dimension: Trust
106(2)
Measuring Time, Risk, and Trust
108(7)
Decision Reversibility
115(3)
Navigating Ambiguity
118(3)
From IWIKs™ to Decisions
121(2)
Key Learnings
Chapter 7
123(2)
Chapter 8 Delivering The Decision
125(18)
The Story Arc in Decision-Making
126(2)
Tuning the Narrative
128(11)
Inform versus Compel
139(2)
Key Learnings
Chapter 8
141(2)
Chapter 9 Chasing The Decision
143(24)
Strategy 1 Create the Case for the Decision
146(4)
Strategy 2 Frame the Outcome
150(3)
Strategy 3 Classify the Type of Decision
153(1)
Strategy 4 Reduce the Scope of the Decision
154(2)
Strategy 5 Right Size the Decision
156(3)
Strategy 6 Pressure Test the Decision--Go to the Extremes
159(4)
Strategy 7 Seek Consent Not Consensus
163(1)
The Perfect Decsion Is an Illusion
164(1)
Key Learnings
Chapter 9
165(2)
Chapter 10 Creating A Quantitative Intuition™ Culture
167(18)
Recruiting for the Quantitative Intuition™ Skill Set
169(6)
Building a Quantitative Intuition™ Team
175(6)
Cultivating a Quantitative Intuition™ Organization
181(2)
Key Learnings
Chapter 10
183(2)
Chapter 11 The Future Of Data-Driven Decision-Making
185(1)
Automation and Human Judgement
186(4)
Predictions and the Digital Twin
190(3)
Probabilistic versus Deterministic Thinking
193(3)
Found Time for More Decisions
196(3)
Epilogue 199(4)
Acknowledgments 203(4)
Index 207(128)
CHRISTOPHER FRANK is a Vice President in the Global Advertising and Brand Management team at American Express. He is a senior strategist at the intersection of marketing, analytics, and commerce developing superior strategies applied to global markets working with B2B and B2C products. He is the co-author of Drinking from the Fire Hose and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School.

PAUL MAGNONE is Head of Global Strategic Alliances at Google. He is a leader in using technology and innovation to create and develop growth strategies for businesses. He has launched new high-growth businesses working in over 30 countries and has been an Industry Mentor in the NSF I-Corps Program. He is the co-author of Drinking from the Fire Hose and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School.

ODED NETZER is the Vice Dean of Research and the Arthur J. Samberg Professor of Business at Columbia Business School. He is also an Amazon Scholar and an affiliate of the Columbia University Data Science Institute. Professor Netzer is a world-renowned expert in data-driven decision-making. His award-winning research is broadly read and highly cited. He has published dozens of papers in the worlds leading marketing and management science journals.