Preface |
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vii | |
About the Author |
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ix | |
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xv | |
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xxxi | |
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Chapter 1 Biography and Beginnings |
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1 | (30) |
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1 | (1) |
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2 | (8) |
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1.3 Oxford, Physics and Bond Trading |
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10 | (3) |
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1.4 Morgan Stanley and P.D.T. |
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13 | (10) |
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23 | (1) |
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1.6 Professional Data Science |
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23 | (8) |
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31 | (110) |
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2.1 Modeling Asset Prices as Stochastic Processes |
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31 | (4) |
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2.2 Abnormality of Financial Distributions |
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35 | (13) |
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2.3 The US Stock Market Through Time |
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48 | (8) |
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56 | (15) |
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2.5 LIBOR and Eurodollar Futures |
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71 | (17) |
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88 | (25) |
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113 | (11) |
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124 | (7) |
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2.9 Microwave Latency Arbitrage |
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131 | (7) |
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2.10 What I've Learned about Financial Data |
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138 | (3) |
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Chapter 3 Economic Data and Other Time-Series Analysis |
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141 | (86) |
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142 | (14) |
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156 | (9) |
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165 | (19) |
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3.4 Analysis of Climate Data |
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184 | (30) |
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214 | (13) |
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Chapter 4 Politics, Schools, Public Health, and Language |
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227 | (58) |
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4.1 Presidential Elections |
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227 | (13) |
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4.2 School Board Elections |
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240 | (9) |
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4.3 Analysis of Public Health Data |
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249 | (22) |
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4.4 Statistical Analysis of Language |
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271 | (13) |
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4.5 Learning from a Mixed Bag of Studies |
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284 | (1) |
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Chapter 5 Demographics and Survey Research |
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285 | (62) |
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5.1 Machine Learning Models for Gender Assignment |
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285 | (8) |
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5.2 Bayesian Estimation of Demographics |
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293 | (3) |
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296 | (9) |
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5.4 Survey and Opinion Research |
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305 | (16) |
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5.5 Working with China Beige Book |
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321 | (5) |
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5.6 Generalized Autoregressive Dirichlet Multinomial Models |
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326 | (13) |
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5.7 Presidential Approval Ratings |
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339 | (8) |
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347 | (48) |
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6.1 Discrete Stochastic Compartment Models |
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348 | (4) |
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6.2 Fitting Coronavirus in New Jersey |
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352 | (6) |
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6.3 Independent Models by State |
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358 | (7) |
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6.4 Geospatial and Topological Models |
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365 | (19) |
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6.5 Looking Back at this Work |
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384 | (4) |
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6.6 COVID Partisanship in the United States |
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388 | (5) |
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393 | (2) |
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395 | (54) |
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7.1 Some Remarks on the PDT Trading Algorithm |
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395 | (1) |
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396 | (6) |
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7.3 The Construction and Properties of Ellipsoidal Probability Density Functions |
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402 | (27) |
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7.4 The Generalized Error Distribution |
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429 | (9) |
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7.5 Frictionless Asset Allocation with Ellipsoidal Distributions |
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438 | (6) |
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7.6 Asset Allocation with Realistic Distributions of Returns |
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444 | (5) |
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449 | (4) |
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E.1 The Nature of Business |
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449 | (1) |
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450 | (1) |
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451 | (2) |
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Appendix A How I Store and Process Data |
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453 | (4) |
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453 | (1) |
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A.2 Programming and Analytical Languages |
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454 | (1) |
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454 | (1) |
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455 | (2) |
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Appendix B Some of the Data Sources I've Used for This Book |
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457 | (4) |
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457 | (1) |
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457 | (1) |
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B.3 Social Media and Internet Activity |
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458 | (1) |
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458 | (1) |
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B.5 Health and Demographics Data |
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458 | (1) |
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458 | (3) |
Bibliography |
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461 | (8) |
Index |
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469 | |