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Assessment of the Risk of Amazon Dieback [Pehme köide]

  • Formaat: Paperback / softback, 112 pages, kõrgus x laius: 254x178 mm, col. Illustrations
  • Sari: World Bank Studies
  • Ilmumisaeg: 11-Nov-2010
  • Kirjastus: World Bank Publications
  • ISBN-10: 0821386212
  • ISBN-13: 9780821386217
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  • Pehme köide
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  • Formaat: Paperback / softback, 112 pages, kõrgus x laius: 254x178 mm, col. Illustrations
  • Sari: World Bank Studies
  • Ilmumisaeg: 11-Nov-2010
  • Kirjastus: World Bank Publications
  • ISBN-10: 0821386212
  • ISBN-13: 9780821386217
Teised raamatud teemal:
The Amazon basin is a key component of the global carbon cycle. Not only is the old-growth rainforests in the basin huge carbon storage with about 120 billion metric tons of carbon in their biomass, but they also process annually twice the rate of global anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions through respiration and photosynthesis. In addition, the basin is the largest global repository of biodiversity and produces about 20 percent of the world's flow of fresh water into the oceans. Despite the large CO2 efflux from recent deforestation, the Amazon rainforest is still considered to be a net carbon sink or reservoir because vegetation growth on average exceeds mortality. However, current climate trends and human-induced deforestation may be transforming forest structure and behavior. Amazon forest dieback would be a massive event, affecting all life-forms that rely on this diverse ecosystem, including humans, and producing ramifications for the entire planet. Clearly, with changes at a global scale at stake, there is a need to better understand the risk, and dynamics of Amazon dieback. Therefore, the purpose of the book is to assist in understanding the risk, process and dynamics of potential Amazon dieback and its implications.
Preface ix
Acknowledgments xi
Acronyms and Abbreviations xiii
1 Introduction
1(6)
Objective
1(1)
Scope
1(2)
Geographical Domain
3(1)
Data Sources
3(4)
2 Modeling Future Climate in the Amazon Using the Earth Simulator
7(9)
The Atmospheric General Circulation Model Simulated by the Earth Simulator
7(1)
Comparison of Observed and Simulated Data for Present Time over the Amazon Basin
8(1)
Projection of Future Climate over the Amazon Basin
9(7)
3 Assessment of Future Rainfall over the Amazon Basin
16(9)
Method for Estimating Probability Density Functions
18(3)
General Circulation Model Simulation of Current and Future Sea Surface Temperature Indexes
21(1)
Probability Density Functions for Future Sea Surface Temperature Indexes
22(3)
4 Analysis of Amazon Forest Response to Climate Change
25(24)
Introduction
25(1)
The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Managed Land Dynamic Global Vegetation and Water Balance Model
26(1)
Simulation of Vegetation State in the Amazon Basin
27(1)
Response of Biomass to Projected Changes in Rainfall in the Different Geographical Domains
28(6)
Probability Function for Amazon Forest Biomass Change
34(6)
Simulation of Sensitivity to CO2 and Rooting Depth
40(3)
Changes in Transpiration
43(1)
Mechanisms of Potential Amazon Dieback
44(2)
Changes in Lightning-Caused Wildfires
46(3)
5 Interplay of Climate Impacts and Deforestation in the Amazon
49(12)
Regional Land Use as a Driver in the Stability of the Amazon Rainforest
49(1)
Scenarios
50(1)
Models Used
50(2)
Simulations
52(1)
Biome Response to Different Forcings
53(8)
6 Conclusions
61(4)
Next Steps
63(2)
Appendixes
65(24)
Appendix A IPCC-Emissions Scenarios
66(3)
Appendix B Development of Probability Density Functions (PDFs) for Future Amazonian Rainfall
69(16)
Appendix C Blue-Ribbon Panel Members-Short Biographies
85(2)
Appendix D Scientific Team of the Amazon Dieback Risk Assessment Task
87(2)
References 89