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ix | |
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xi | |
Acknowledgments |
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xiii | |
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1 Introduction: The Company You Keep |
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1 | (15) |
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1.1 International Cooperation and Uncertainty |
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7 | (2) |
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1.2 Why Emerging Markets? Why Sovereign Debt? |
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9 | (4) |
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13 | (3) |
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2 International Institutions and Sovereign Risk |
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16 | (35) |
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2.1 What Markets Tell Us about Institutions, and What Institutions Tell Markets |
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18 | (6) |
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2.1.1 Ability and Willingness to Repay Debt |
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20 | (2) |
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2.1.2 Other Ways of Measuring Risk |
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22 | (2) |
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2.2 Theories of International Institutions |
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24 | (2) |
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2.3 Collective Assessments of Risk |
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26 | (7) |
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2.3.1 IOs and Perceptions of Ability to Service Debt |
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28 | (2) |
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2.3.2 Affiliations and Reputation |
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30 | (3) |
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2.4 A Theory of the Company States Keep |
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33 | (9) |
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2.4.1 Proposed Depth of Integration |
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36 | (2) |
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2.4.2 Reputation of Countries in the Agreement |
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38 | (4) |
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42 | (8) |
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2.5.1 Ha1: Changes in Member-State Behavior |
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43 | (2) |
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2.5.2 Ha2: Selection and Endogeneity |
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45 | (2) |
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2.5.3 Ha3: Enforcement of Rules or Constraints on Behavior |
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47 | (3) |
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50 | (1) |
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3 The Company You Keep in Comparative Perspective |
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51 | (34) |
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3.1 Operationalizing Risk through Sovereign Debt |
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53 | (3) |
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3.1.1 Sovereign Risk of Members of Regional Agreements |
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55 | (1) |
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3.2 Key Explanatory Variables |
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56 | (4) |
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3.3 Testing of Central Hypothesis (H1): The Company You Keep |
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60 | (8) |
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3.3.1 Empirical Results for the Company You Keep (H1) |
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62 | (6) |
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3.4 Robustness and Rival Explanations |
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68 | (10) |
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3.4.1 Test of Changes in Behavior (Ha1) |
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69 | (2) |
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3.4.2 Test of Endogeneity (Ha2) |
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71 | (2) |
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3.4.3 Test of Enforcement (Ha3) |
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73 | (5) |
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78 | (3) |
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81 | (4) |
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4 The Effects of Good Company |
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85 | (39) |
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4.1 Investor Risk and EU Enlargement |
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87 | (2) |
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4.2 Data Analysis: Aggregate Effects of the EU as Good Company |
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89 | (3) |
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4.3 Evidence for the Company You Keep (H1) |
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92 | (4) |
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4.4 Effects for Postcommunist Countries |
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96 | (23) |
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4.4.1 Test of Ha1 -- Policy Reform |
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99 | (2) |
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4.4.2 Test of Ha2 -- Selection |
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101 | (6) |
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4.4.3 Test of Mechanism Underlying H1: The Company You Keep |
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107 | (4) |
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4.4.4 Examination of Ha3: Enforcement |
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111 | (8) |
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4.5 Conditions without Membership: The European Neighborhood Policy |
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119 | (2) |
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121 | (3) |
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5 When Emerging Markets Join Up with Bad Company |
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124 | (38) |
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5.0.1 Event Studies and Uncertainty |
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127 | (2) |
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5.1 Defaults and Bad Company in Latin America |
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129 | (16) |
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5.1.1 Investor Perceptions of Chavez's Bolivarian Revolution |
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130 | (15) |
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5.2 Perceptions of Russia and the Eurasian Union |
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145 | (8) |
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5.2.1 A New Customs Union and a Planned Eurasian Union |
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147 | (6) |
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5.3 When Countries Leave a "Bad Company" Organization |
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153 | (4) |
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5.4 Increases in Uncertainty: China's Reach into Emerging Markets |
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157 | (3) |
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160 | (2) |
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6 How Risk for Core Members Changes on IO Expansion |
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162 | (27) |
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6.1 Investor Risk to Core Members: Germany and EU Accession |
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164 | (9) |
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6.2 Mercosur: Contagion, Can't Pay, and Won't Pay |
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173 | (9) |
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6.2.1 Possible Contagion Effects: Ability to Pay |
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175 | (2) |
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6.2.2 Uruguay's Debt Restructuring |
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177 | (2) |
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6.2.3 Mercosur's Ideological Orientation: Willingness to Pay |
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179 | (3) |
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6.3 When New Members Change the Brand of the Organization |
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182 | (5) |
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6.3.1 Attenuated Effects in Current Enlargement Negotiations |
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183 | (2) |
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6.3.2 Turkey's EU Candidacy |
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185 | (2) |
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187 | (2) |
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189 | (12) |
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192 | (9) |
Bibliography |
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201 | (24) |
Index |
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225 | |