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Computing Possible Futures [Kõva köide]

(Professor, Stevens Institute of Technology)
  • Formaat: Hardback, 202 pages, kõrgus x laius x paksus: 238x161x18 mm, kaal: 502 g
  • Ilmumisaeg: 12-Sep-2019
  • Kirjastus: Oxford University Press
  • ISBN-10: 0198846428
  • ISBN-13: 9780198846420
  • Formaat: Hardback, 202 pages, kõrgus x laius x paksus: 238x161x18 mm, kaal: 502 g
  • Ilmumisaeg: 12-Sep-2019
  • Kirjastus: Oxford University Press
  • ISBN-10: 0198846428
  • ISBN-13: 9780198846420
Mathematical modelling and simulation is an increasingly powerful area of mathematics and computer science, which in recent years has been fuelled by the unprecedented access to larger than ever stores of data. These techniques have an increasing number of applications in the professional and political spheres, and people try to predict the results of certain courses of action as accurately as possible.

Computing Possible Futures explores the use of models on everyday phenomena such as waiting in lines and driving a car, before expanding the model's complexity to look at how large-scale computational models can help imagine big scale "what-if" scenarios like the effect self-driving cars on the US economy. The successes and failures of complex real world problems are examined, and it is shown how few, if any, failures are due to model errors or computational difficulties. It is also shown how real life decision makers have addressed important problems and used their model-based understanding of possible futures to inform these decisions.

Written in an entertaining and accessible way, Computing Possible Futures will help those concerned about the futurity of their decisions to understand what fundamentally needs to be done, why it needs to be done, and how to do it.

Arvustused

A must read for everyone who has ever wondered 'What If?' and felt unprepared to rigorously generate possible answers ... The chapter on intelligent systems is especially timely, and covers artificial intelligence and machine learning from a fresh perspective. * Jim Spohrer, Director, Cognitive OpenTech at IBM * Computing Possible Futures provides a compelling approach to systems thinking, as well as an array of tools for exploring what might happen and leading indicators of likely futures. * Denis A. Cortese MD, Foundation Professor, Arizona State University * The hope is that readers will discuss this book and develop a 'shared mental model' of computational modeling in the process, which will greatly enhance their chances of success. * MathSciNet *

1 Introduction
1(18)
Simple Examples
2(4)
Less Simple Examples
6(4)
Key Points
10(1)
Overview
10(7)
References
17(2)
2 Elements of Modeling
19(16)
Process of Modeling
20(4)
Alternative Representations
24(6)
Validating Predictions
30(1)
Frequently Asked Questions
31(2)
Key Points
33(1)
References
33(2)
3 Economic Bubbles
35(20)
Higher Education
36(1)
Market Disruption
37(1)
Four Scenarios
38(4)
Computational Model
42(3)
Projections for Scenarios
45(4)
Implications
49(1)
Comparative Study
50(2)
Executives' Reactions
52(1)
Key Points
53(1)
References
53(2)
4 Markets and Competitors
55(18)
Product Planning
56(4)
Using the Product Planning Advisor
60(1)
Applications
61(4)
Advisor Series
65(2)
Evaluation
67(2)
Discussion
69(1)
Conclusions
69(1)
Key Points
70(1)
References
71(2)
5 Technology Adoption
73(18)
Options-Based Thinking
74(2)
Real Options
76(1)
Technology Investment Advisor
77(3)
Case Studies
80(2)
Technology Adoption in Automobiles
82(4)
Organizational Implications
86(2)
Key Points
88(1)
References
89(2)
6 System Failures
91(22)
Human Behavior and Performance
93(1)
Example Models
94(6)
Mental Models
100(3)
Application to Failure Situations
103(2)
Case Studies
105(4)
Conclusions
109(1)
Key Points
110(1)
References
110(3)
7 Health and Well-Being
113(18)
Delivery Ecosystem
114(2)
Scaling Innovation
116(7)
Enterprise Models
123(5)
Conclusions
128(1)
Key Points
128(1)
References
129(2)
8 Intelligent Systems
131(20)
AI and Machine Learning
132(2)
Contemporary AI
134(2)
Elements of Intelligent Support
136(2)
Overall Architecture
138(4)
Case Studies
142(4)
Promises, Perils, and Prospects
146(3)
Conclusions
149(1)
Key Points
149(1)
References
150(1)
9 Enterprise Transformation
151(18)
Context of Transformation
152(1)
Modeling the Enterprise
153(2)
Qualitative Theory
155(4)
Ends, Means, and Scope of Transformation
159(4)
Computational Theory
163(2)
Conclusions
165(2)
Key Points
167(1)
References
167(2)
10 Exploring Possible Futures
169(9)
Summary
169(1)
Exploration
170(3)
Observations on Problem-Solving
173(2)
Impacts of Technology Advances
175(1)
Risks of Exploration
176(2)
Conclusions 178(3)
Index 181
William B. Rouse is Research Professor within the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University and Professor Emeritus, and former chair, of the School of Industrial and Systems Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology. He has written many books on modelling complex systems and enterprises, technology management and innovation. He lives in Washington, DC.