Contemporary Intelligence Warning Cases presents lessons learned and recommendations for producers and users of intelligence warning in their joint venture to anticipate, prepare for, mitigate, and prevent future threats to national security.
It presents and synthesizes the findings of 16 contemporary intelligence warning case studies undertaken by leading intelligence scholars and former intelligence practitioners. It is the first multi-case study of intelligence warning and adopts a uniquely broad and contemporary approach to the phenomenon, featuring both successful and failed cases. Consistent with the increasing complexity of intelligence problems and scope of intelligence services, it ranges from traditional warning problems such as invasions and wars, through terrorist attacks, to threats that lie beyond the traditional core scope of intelligence services such as pandemics, financial crises, climate change, strategic acquisitions and attacks on cultural heritage.
What can intelligence producers and users learn from contemporary intelligence warning cases to anticipate, prepare for, mitigate and prevent future security challenges?
Arvustused
This book is an important contribution to the study of intelligence warning. The wide selection of case studies is especially valuable, including not only cases of traditional warning such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also non-traditional warning of threats such as natural disasters, pandemics, and financial crises. -- Erik J. Dahl, Naval Postgraduate School Chock full of teachable lessons grounded in historical context and is particularly valuable for consumers of intelligence to help them understand that whether they have gotten the detailed tactical warning theyd prefer or not, their lot in life is to now make hard decisions under conditions of uncertainty and to understand that making no decision in the face of warning because of the absence of a more complete picture is a decision. -- J. Paul Pope * International Journal of Intelligence and Counter Intelligence * An excellent addition to the scholarly literature on warning and deserves a place in organizational and personal libraries. It performs an essential service, filling gaps in the case study literature by adding a series of contemporary cases explored from various intellectual and national perspectives and touching on topics not commonly associated with intelligence warning. -- Johnathan Proctor * Studies in Intelligence * Absolutely thrilling, a "must-read" book. It is fresh, speaking about recent cases, going from 2006 to 2022, something rare, especially with this quality. It is really global, with a strong European flavor, far away from the "old and classic" research work. An example of high-quality academic work. -- François Fischer, Director * Intelligence College in Europe *
List of Contributors
Abbreviations
Introduction: Warning The Highest Purpose and Most Challenging Mission of
Intelligence
Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning & Stig Stenslie
1. Punggye-ri, 2006 North Koreas First Nuclear Test
Soo Kim
2. London, 2006 The al-Qaeda Transatlantic Bomb Plot
Michael S. Goodman
3. Tbilisi, 2008 Russia Invades Georgia
Daniela Richterova
4. Wall Street, 2008 The Global Financial Crisis
John A. Gentry
5. In Amenas, 2013 Terrorists Attack Petroleum Interests
Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning
6. Crimea 2014 Russias Annexation of Crimea
Tom Røseth & Tobias Sæther
7. Mosul 2014 The Rise of ISIS
Nikki Ikani
8. Palmyra, 2015 ISIS Attacks Cultural Heritage Sites
Zeynep Egeli & Lars Haugom
9. Paris 2015 ISIS Attacks Paris
Pauline Blistène
10. Kyiv, 2015 Russias Cyber-Attack on Ukraines Power Grid
Aaron Brantly
11. Wuhan, 2019 A Global Pandemic
Damien van Puyvelde
12. Capitol Hill, 2021 Insurrection in Washington DC
Stephen Coulthart
13. Bergen, 2021 Russias Strategic Acquisition Bid on Bergen Engines AS
Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning
14: Kabul, 2021 The Taliban Overtakes Kabul
Kristian Gustafson
15: Kyiv, 2022 Russias Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine
Huw Dylan
16: Sindh, 2022 Climate Change Floods in Pakistan
Stig Stenslie
Conclusion: Towards Better Warning Lessons and Recommendations for
Intelligence
Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning & Stig Stenslie
References
Index
Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning is Deputy Research Director and Deputy Head of the Centre for Intelligence Studies at the Norwegian Intelligence School (NORIS), Oslo. Stig Stenslie is Research Director and Head of the Centre for Intelligence Studies at the Norwegian Intelligence School (NORIS), and Professor at Oslo New University College, Oslo.