Risk and uncertainty are inescapable factors in agriculture which require careful management. Farmers face production risks from the weather, crop and livestock performance, and pests and diseases, as well as institutional, personal and business risks. This revised third edition of this popular textbook includes updated chapters on theory and methods and contains a new chapter discussing the state-contingent approach to the analysis of production and the use of copulas to better model stochastic dependency. Aiming to introduce agricultural decision making, probability and risk preference, this book is an indispensable guide for students and researchers of agriculture and agribusiness management.
| Preface to the Third Edition |
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vii | |
| Preface to the Second Edition |
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ix | |
| Preface to the First Edition |
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xi | |
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1 Introduction to Risk in Agriculture |
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1 | (15) |
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2 Decision Analysis: Outline and Basic Assumptions |
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16 | (14) |
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3 Probabilities for Decision Analysis |
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30 | (22) |
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4 More about Probabilities for Decision Analysis |
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52 | (29) |
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5 Attitudes to Risky Consequences |
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81 | (26) |
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6 Integrating Beliefs and Preferences for Decision Analysis |
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107 | (19) |
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7 Decision Analysis with Preferences Unknown |
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126 | (14) |
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8 The State-contingent Approach to Decision Analysis |
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140 | (12) |
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9 Risk and Mathematical Programming Models |
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152 | (25) |
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10 Decision Analysis with Multiple Objectives |
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177 | (19) |
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11 Risky Decision Malting and Time |
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196 | (26) |
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12 Strategies Decision Makers Can Use to Manage Risk |
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222 | (20) |
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13 Risk Considerations in Agricultural Policy Making |
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242 | (23) |
| Appendix: Selected Software for Decision Analysis |
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265 | (2) |
| Index |
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267 | |
Gudbrand Lien is a professor in business economics at Inland School of Business and Social Sciences, Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences in Lillehammer (in Norway) and senior researcher within agricultural economics at Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO) at Ås (in Norway). Gudbrand has a dr. oecon (PhD) degree (within finance) from Norwegian School of Economics (NHH). His main field of research has been within risk analysis/decision analysis, agricultural economics, energy finance, energy economics, forest economics, dynamic pricing and quantitative innovation studies. He has published about 100 articles in high ranked refereed international journals. Gudbrand is also co-author (joint with J. Brian Hardaker, Jock. R. Anderson and Ruud B.M. Huirne) of the 2nd and 3rd edition of text book "Coping with risk in agriculture", both published at Cabi. Gudbrand has worked closely together with Professor J. Brian Hardaker for more than 20 years, and they have 24 scientific papers together. He has also worked together with Distinguished Professor Subal C. Kumbhakar in the past 15 years and they have written almost 20 scientific papers together. He is a Board Member of Energies since 2019 and European Review of Agricultural Economics from 2022.
