| About the Author |
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ix | |
| Acknowledgements |
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xi | |
| Introduction, or How a Relay of Misery Can Lead to Good Things |
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1 | (8) |
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Let me take you on my journey |
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3 | (1) |
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My selection of the seven most common mistakes |
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4 | (5) |
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Chapter 1 The Shortest Investment Joke: My Forecast Has a Decimal Point |
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9 | (28) |
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The future is uncertain - deal with it |
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13 | (3) |
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16 | (2) |
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The uncertainty introduced by compound interest |
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18 | (2) |
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20 | (3) |
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More isn't more: information versus accuracy |
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23 | (1) |
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The true value of company analysis |
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24 | (1) |
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Resist the temptation to summarise everything into one number |
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25 | (3) |
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Integrating uncertainty into the investment process |
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28 | (3) |
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A better way to deal with uncertainty |
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31 | (3) |
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34 | (1) |
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35 | (2) |
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Chapter 2 The Long Term is Not the Sum of Short Terms |
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37 | (24) |
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Let's blame the media, shall we? |
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41 | (2) |
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The media is a symptom, not the cause |
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43 | (2) |
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Short-termism is bad for your wealth |
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45 | (3) |
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Finding excuses for trading is easy |
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48 | (3) |
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Don't just do something, sit there |
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51 | (1) |
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Don't check your portfolio too often |
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52 | (1) |
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Professionals need to have the right incentives |
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53 | (1) |
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How you visualise performance matters |
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54 | (3) |
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Manage your information flow |
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57 | (1) |
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58 | (1) |
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59 | (2) |
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Chapter 3 Are You a Long-term Investor -- or Just Stubborn? |
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61 | (28) |
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Contrarian investing for the long run |
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64 | (2) |
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Contrarian investing versus momentum investing |
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66 | (2) |
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Value investing for the long run |
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68 | (3) |
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71 | (2) |
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Learning from short-term investors |
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73 | (2) |
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The secret of successful traders: emotional detachment |
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75 | (2) |
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Listen to the data to rein in your emotions |
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77 | (2) |
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A mental model of data aggregation |
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79 | (2) |
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81 | (5) |
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86 | (1) |
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87 | (2) |
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Chapter 4 We Learn From History That We Do Not Learn From History |
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89 | (26) |
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Learning from experience in a laboratory |
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94 | (1) |
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Trading begins and chaos ensues... |
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95 | (2) |
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Cynical bubbles and bubble echoes |
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97 | (2) |
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Bubble echoes in the wild |
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99 | (1) |
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Forgetting past experiences: rekindling a bubble |
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100 | (2) |
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Career risk as an obstacle to learning from experience |
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102 | (1) |
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Most fund managers get worse with experience |
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103 | (2) |
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Individual investors don't learn from the past either |
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105 | (1) |
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106 | (6) |
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112 | (1) |
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113 | (2) |
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Chapter 5 Ignoring the Other Side of a Story |
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115 | (22) |
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The outcomes for investors were vastly different |
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118 | (2) |
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120 | (2) |
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We don't like to be contradicted |
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122 | (1) |
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Test your confirmation bias |
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123 | (3) |
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126 | (1) |
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127 | (2) |
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Economic growth and stock returns |
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129 | (1) |
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Engage with views you disagree with |
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130 | (2) |
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Change your reading habits |
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132 | (1) |
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Your new best friend: the devil's advocate |
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133 | (1) |
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134 | (1) |
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135 | (1) |
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136 | (1) |
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Chapter 6 You Get What You Pay For |
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137 | (24) |
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Active fees for passive funds |
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140 | (2) |
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Why are fund managers becoming less active? |
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142 | (2) |
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144 | (1) |
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An alternative way to lose money for investors |
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144 | (1) |
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The impact of lower tracking error on investment performance |
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145 | (2) |
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147 | (1) |
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Employee-owned funds perform better |
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148 | (1) |
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149 | (2) |
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A 1960s advertisement explains the advantage of smaller funds |
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151 | (3) |
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How to improve your investment performance |
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154 | (3) |
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Active share isn't everything |
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157 | (1) |
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Small, active and employee owned |
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158 | (1) |
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159 | (1) |
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160 | (1) |
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Chapter 7 Navigating a Complex World |
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161 | (32) |
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Why doesn't Delphi own the world? |
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163 | (1) |
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A recent regime change in currency markets |
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164 | (2) |
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Currency hedge funds stop performing |
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166 | (1) |
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The flawed foundations of modern finance |
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167 | (5) |
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Financial markets as complex dynamic systems |
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172 | (1) |
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Insights from complex dynamic systems |
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173 | (12) |
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How to think about markets as systems |
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185 | (5) |
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190 | (1) |
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191 | (2) |
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193 | |
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195 | (2) |
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197 | (1) |
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198 | (1) |
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199 | |