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Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process: Economic, Political, Social and Technological Applications with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks 2nd ed. 2013 [Kõva köide]

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Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process: Economic, Political, Social and Technological Applications with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks 2nd ed. 2013Suurem pilt
Teised raamatud teemal:
Püsilink: https://www.kriso.ee/db/9781461472780.html
Märksõnad:
The Analytic Network Process (ANP), developed by Thomas Saaty in his work on multicriteria decision making, applies network structures with dependence and feedback to complex decision making. This new edition of Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process is a selection of the latest applications of ANP to economic, social and political decisions, and also to technological design. The ANP is a methodological tool that is helpful to organize knowledge and thinking, elicit judgments registered in both in memory and in feelings, quantify the judgments and derive priorities from them, and finally synthesize these diverse priorities into a single mathematically and logically justifiable overall outcome. In the process of deriving this outcome, the ANP also allows for the representation and synthesis of diverse opinions in the midst of discussion and debate.The book focuses on the application of the ANP in three different areas: economics, the social sciences and the linking of measurement with human values. Economists can use the ANP for an alternate approach for dealing with economic problems than the usual mathematical models on which economics bases its quantitative thinking. For psychologists, sociologists and political scientists, the ANP offers the methodology they have sought for some time to quantify and derive measurements for intangibles. Finally the book applies the ANP to provide people in the physical and engineering sciences with a quantitative method to link hard measurement to human values. In such a process, one is able to interpret the true meaning of measurements made on a uniform scale using a unit.

The new edition of this book shows how economists can use the analytical network process to supplement mathematical models, how it helps social scientists derive measurements for intangibles, and how engineers can link hard measurement to human values.
1 The Analytic Network Process
1(40)
1 Introduction
1(4)
1.1 World Chess Championship Outcome Validation of Measurement in a Hierarchy: Karpov-Korchnoi Match
5(1)
2 The Analytic Network Process (ANP)
5(4)
3 The Supermatrix of a Feedback System (Saaty 2001a, b, 2005)
9(2)
4 The Control Hierarchy and What Question to Ask
11(1)
5 The Benefits, Costs, Opportunities and Risks and Their Merit Ratings
12(1)
6 Priorities in the Supermatrix
13(2)
7 On the Limit Supermatrix and its Cesaro Sum
15(3)
8 Rating
18(2)
9 Two Examples of Estimating Market Share
20(3)
9.1 Airline Example (2005)
20(2)
9.2 Wine Example (2005)
22(1)
10 Group Decision Making
23(18)
10.1 How to Aggregate Individual Judgments
23(2)
10.2 On the Construction of Group Choice from Individual Choices
25(2)
10.3 Cardinal Preference Relations
27(2)
10.4 Absolute Cardinal Preference Relations
29(8)
Appendix
37(2)
References
39(2)
2 Forecasting the Resurgence of the U. S. Economy in 2001: An Expert Judgment Approach
41(34)
1 Introduction
41(1)
2 On the Role of Judgment in Economic Forecasting
41(1)
3 The Setting: An Economic Slowdown After Years of Expansion
42(2)
4 A Holarchy Approach
44(5)
4.1 Decomposition of the Problem
44(1)
4.2 Pairwise Comparison
45(4)
5 Producing the Forecast of the Recovery
49(1)
6 An ANP Approach
49(8)
6.1 ANP Structures
50(4)
6.2 Predictions
54(1)
6.3 Analysis
55(2)
7 Conclusion
57(18)
References
72(3)
3 An Analytic Network Process Model for Financial-Crisis Forecasting
75(18)
1 Introduction
75(1)
2 The ANP Financial Crisis Model Structure
76(2)
3 Building the ANP Financial Crisis Model
78(9)
4 The 1991 U. S. Banking Crisis
87(4)
5 Conclusion
91(2)
References
91(2)
4 Outsourcing a Firm's Application Development Group
93(26)
1 Introduction
93(1)
2 The Model
94(9)
3 BOCR Priorities
103(9)
4 Results
112(1)
5 Sensitivity Analysis
112(1)
6 Where to Outsource
112(7)
Bibliography
116(3)
5 ANWR: Artie National Wildlife Refuge an ANP Validation Example
119(14)
1 Introduction
119(1)
2 BOCR Model for ANWR
120(11)
3 Results
131(1)
4 Conclusion and Sensitivity Analyses
131(2)
6 The Ford Explorer Case
133(26)
1 Introduction
133(1)
2 Creating the Model
134(2)
2.1 Alternatives
134(1)
2.2 Cluster Definitions
134(2)
2.3 Procedure
136(1)
3 Benefits Model
136(5)
3.1 Economic Benefits Clusters, Links and Judgments
136(2)
3.2 Social Benefits Clusters, Links and Judgments
138(2)
3.3 Synthesis of Judgments in the Benefits Model
140(1)
4 Costs Model
141(7)
4.1 Economic Costs Clusters, Links and Judgments
141(3)
4.2 Political Costs Clusters, Links and Judgments
144(2)
4.3 Social Costs Clusters, Links and Judgments
146(2)
4.4 Synthesis of Judgments in the Costs Model
148(1)
5 Risks Model
148(5)
5.1 Economic Risks Clusters, Links and Judgments
149(2)
5.2 Social Risks Clusters, Links and Judgments
151(2)
5.3 Synthesis of Judgments in the Risks Model
153(1)
6 Ratings and Synthesis
153(1)
7 Sensitivity Analysis
154(5)
Bibliography
157(2)
7 Synthesis of Complex Criteria Decision Making: A Case Towards a Consensus Agreement for a Middle East Conflict Resolution
159(26)
1 Introduction
159(2)
2 Background
161(1)
3 Methodology
162(2)
4 Structuring the ANP Model for the Middle East Conflict Resolution
164(9)
4.1 Merits
168(1)
4.2 The Benefits Subnet
168(1)
4.3 The Costs Subnet
169(1)
4.4 The Opportunities Subnet
170(1)
4.5 The Risk Subnet
170(1)
4.6 Alternatives
171(2)
5 Prioritization
173(5)
5.1 Strategic Criteria and Their Priorities
173(1)
5.2 BOCR Merits and Their Priorities
174(1)
5.3 Decision Networks
175(3)
6 Synthesis of the BOCR Merits
178(4)
7 Sensitivity Analysis
182(1)
8 Conclusions
182(3)
References
183(2)
8 U. S. Energy Security
185(28)
1 Introduction
185(3)
2 ANP Model Description
188(11)
2.1 BOCR Model
188(9)
2.2 Strategic Rating Model
197(2)
2.3 Alternatives Model
199(1)
3 Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks Model
199(4)
3.1 Benefits Model
200(1)
3.2 Opportunities Model
200(2)
3.3 Costs Model
202(1)
3.4 Risks Model
202(1)
4 BOCR/Alternative Analysis
203(2)
5 Model Results
205(1)
6 Sensitivity Analysis
205(4)
6.1 Benefits
205(1)
6.2 Opportunities
206(2)
6.3 Costs
208(1)
6.4 Risks
209(1)
7 Conclusion
209(4)
References
210(3)
9 Stabilizing Social Security for the Long-Term
213(22)
1 Introduction
213(1)
2 Strategic Criteria
214(1)
3 Alternatives
215(1)
4 Benefits/Opportunities/Costs/Risk
216(10)
5 Results
226(2)
6 Sensitivity Analysis
228(2)
7 Conclusion
230(5)
Appendix Schedules
230(2)
Bibliography
232(3)
10 When Shall Poland Enter the Euro Zone?
235(20)
1 Introduction
235(3)
2 Conditions for Euro Zone Membership: Convergence Criteria Defined by the Maastricht Treaty
238(1)
3 Poland's Economic Position Relative to Other Euro Zone Countries and Those Aspiring to Join the European Union
239(3)
4 Prioritization of ANP Model Control Criteria for Poland's Entry into the Euro Zone
242(1)
5 Decision Subnet Analysis for Each Selected Control Criterion BOCR
242(9)
6 Final Conclusions
251(4)
References
252(3)
11 The Conflict Between China and Taiwan
255(16)
1 Introduction
255(1)
2 Possible Alternatives
255(1)
3 BOCR Model
256(10)
3.1 Strategic Criteria
256(1)
3.2 Control Criteria
257(1)
3.3 Benefits
257(3)
3.4 Opportunities
260(1)
3.5 Costs
261(3)
3.6 Risks
264(2)
4 Overall Synthesized Results
266(1)
5 Sensitivity Analysis
267(3)
6 Conclusions
270(1)
12 U. S. Response to North Korean Nuclear Threat
271(24)
1 Introduction
271(1)
2 Alternative Courses of Action
271(2)
3 Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks
273(4)
3.1 Benefits Subnet
273(4)
3.2 Opportunities Subnet
277(1)
3.3 Costs and Risks Subnets
277(1)
4 Rating Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks
277(5)
5 Results and Sensitivity Analysis
282(10)
6 Sensitivity Analysis
292(2)
7 Conclusion
294(1)
13 Criteria for Evaluating Group Decision-Making Methods
295(24)
1 Introduction
295(1)
2 Criteria for Group Decision Making Methods
296(7)
2.1 Group Maintenance: Leadership Effectiveness
298(1)
2.2 Group Maintenance: Learning
299(1)
2.3 Problem Abstraction: Scope
299(1)
2.4 Problem Abstraction: Development of Alternatives
299(1)
2.5 Structure: Breadth
300(1)
2.6 Structure: Depth
300(1)
2.7 Analysis: Faithfulness of Judgments
300(1)
2.8 Analysis: Breadth and Depth of Analysis (What If)
301(1)
2.9 Fairness: Cardinal Separation of Alternatives
301(1)
2.10 Fairness: Prioritizing of Group Members
301(1)
2.11 Fairness: Consideration of Other Actors and Stakeholders
302(1)
2.12 Scientific and Mathematical Generality
302(1)
2.13 Applicability to Intangibles
302(1)
2.14 Psychophysical Applicability
302(1)
2.15 Applicability to Conflict Resolution
303(1)
2.16 Validity of the Outcome (Prediction)
303(1)
3 Group Decision Making Methods
303(4)
3.1 Structuring
303(1)
3.2 Ordering and Ranking
304(1)
3.3 Structuring and Measuring
305(2)
4 Evaluation of the Methods on the Criteria
307(10)
4.1 Group Maintenance: Leadership Effectiveness
307(1)
4.2 Group Maintenance: Learning
307(4)
4.3 Problem Abstraction: Scope
311(1)
4.4 Problem Abstraction: Development of Alternatives
312(1)
4.5 Structure: Breadth
312(1)
4.6 Structure: Depth
313(1)
4.7 Analysis: Faithfulness of Judgments
313(1)
4.8 Breadth and Depth of Analysis (Analysis)
313(1)
4.9 Fairness: Cardinal Separation of Alternatives
314(1)
4.10 Fairness: Prioritizing Group Members
314(1)
4.11 Fairness: Consideration of Other Actors and Stakeholders
314(1)
4.12 Scientific and Mathematical Generality
315(1)
4.13 Applicability to Intangibles
315(1)
4.14 Psychophysical Applicability
316(1)
4.15 Applicability to Conflict Resolution
316(1)
4.16 Validity of the Outcome (What If)
316(1)
5 Conclusion
317(2)
References
317(2)
14 An Innovative Orders-of-Magnitude Approach to AHP-Based Multicriteria Decision Making: Prioritizing Divergent Intangible Humane Acts
319(26)
1 Introduction
319(1)
2 Decision Making Using the New Orders-of-Magnitude AHP Model
320(4)
2.1 A New AHP Model for Comparing Heterogeneous Elements
321(3)
3 The Importance of Valuing Activities Contributed by People
324(3)
3.1 Need Rating Intangible Contribution to Improve Life Quality
324(1)
3.2 On Quantifying the Relative Value of Altruistic Acts
325(1)
3.3 Non-monetary Units Already Used in Parts of Our World
326(1)
4 Identifying Criteria and Alternatives for the Proposed AHP Model
327(6)
4.1 The Evaluation Criteria
328(1)
4.2 Categorization of Clusters
329(3)
4.3 Altruistic Alternatives
332(1)
5 Applying the New AHP Model
333(8)
5.1 Pairwise Comparison
333(7)
5.2 Results: The Value of Benevolent Acts
340(1)
6 Conclusions
341(4)
References
342(3)
15 Sensitivity Analysis in the Analytic Hierarchy Process
345(16)
1 Introduction
345(1)
2 Literature Review
346(1)
2.1 Sensitivity Analysis of Judgments
346(1)
2.2 Sensitivity Analysis of Priorities
347(1)
3 Problem Complexity
347(1)
4 Stability of the ANP Solution
348(6)
4.1 Binary Classification
349(2)
4.2 Core Stability
351(1)
4.3 Solution Stability
352(2)
5 An Example
354(4)
6 Conclusions and Further Research
358(3)
References
359(2)
Index 361