Preface |
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xi | |
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Chapter 1 Review of Energy Development in China |
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1 | (30) |
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1.1 World Energy Development |
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1 | (6) |
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1.1.1 World Energy Reserves and Distribution |
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1 | (2) |
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1.1.2 World Economic Growth and Energy Consumption |
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3 | (1) |
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1.1.3 World Energy Market |
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4 | (2) |
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1.1.4 International Energy and Environmental Cooperation |
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6 | (1) |
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1.2 Energy Production in China |
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7 | (6) |
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1.2.1 Energy Reserves and Distribution in China |
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7 | (3) |
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1.2.2 China Energy Production and Structure |
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10 | (2) |
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1.2.3 Production and Development of Renewable Energy in China |
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12 | (1) |
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1.3 Energy Consumption in China |
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13 | (5) |
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1.3.1 Energy Consumption Quantity and Structure in China |
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13 | (3) |
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1.3.2 Energy Consumption in Industrial Sectors |
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16 | (1) |
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1.3.3 Energy Efficiency and Conservation |
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17 | (1) |
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1.4 Energy Consumption, Resources and Economy in Regions |
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18 | (11) |
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1.4.1 Data and Processing |
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18 | (1) |
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1.4.2 Regional Energy Consumption |
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19 | (4) |
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1.4.3 Regional Differences of Energy Resources and Consumption |
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23 | (3) |
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1.4.4 Regional Differences of Energy Consumption, Resources Distribution and Economic Development |
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26 | (3) |
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29 | (2) |
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Chapter 2 Structural Relationship between Chinese Energy and Economic Growth |
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31 | (40) |
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2.1 The Cointegration and Causality between Chinese GDP and Energy Consumption |
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31 | (11) |
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32 | (2) |
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2.1.2 Cointegration and Causality in Chinese Energy Economy |
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34 | (3) |
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2.1.3 Cointegration and Causality in Three Industries' Energy Economy |
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37 | (4) |
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2.1.4 Conclusions and Policy Implications |
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41 | (1) |
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2.2 Energy Intensity and Economic Structure of China |
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42 | (15) |
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2.2.1 Decomposition of Energy Intensity Based on SDA |
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43 | (2) |
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2.2.2 Impact of Chinese Economic Structure Change on Energy Intensity |
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45 | (4) |
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2.2.3 Impact of the Secondary Industry Structure on Energy Intensity |
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49 | (6) |
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55 | (2) |
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2.3 Energy Structure and Energy Efficiency in China |
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57 | (10) |
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2.3.1 China's Energy Economy and Energy Efficiency |
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58 | (2) |
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2.3.2 Empirical Study on the Impact of China's Energy Structure on Energy Efficiency |
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60 | (3) |
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2.3.3 ME and MRS in Chinese Energy Economy |
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63 | (3) |
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66 | (1) |
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67 | (4) |
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Chapter 3 Analysis and Forecasting of Energy Supply and Demands in China |
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71 | (24) |
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3.1 Forecasting of Energy Requirements in 2020 |
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71 | (15) |
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3.1.1 Present Research on Energy Requirement |
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72 | (1) |
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3.1.2 Scenario Analysis and Input-Output Analysis |
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72 | (1) |
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3.1.3 China Energy Demand Analysis System CEDAS |
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73 | (1) |
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3.1.4 Scenario Analysis of Energy Requirement in 2020 |
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73 | (5) |
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78 | (7) |
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3.1.6 Policy Implications |
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85 | (1) |
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3.2 Economic Analysis of Coal Supply System |
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86 | (6) |
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3.2.1 System Dynamics Model and Data for Coril Production and Supply |
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87 | (4) |
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3.2.2 Investment Influence on the Capacity of Coal Supply |
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91 | (1) |
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3.2.3 Conclusions and Remarks |
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91 | (1) |
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92 | (3) |
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Chapter 4 Fluctuation in Oil Markets and Policy Study |
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95 | (76) |
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4.1 The Characteristics of International Petroleum Price Fluctuation |
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95 | (12) |
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4.1.1 International Petroleum Prices and Their Impact on the Global Economy |
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95 | (1) |
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4.1.2 Oil Price Level Characteristics of Three Oil Crises |
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96 | (4) |
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4.1.3 The Oil Price Level Characteristics in 2005 |
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100 | (1) |
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4.1.4 The Long-Term Tendency of International Crude Oil Prices |
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101 | (2) |
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4.1.5 The Short-Term Fluctuations of International and Domestic Crude Oil Prices |
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103 | (2) |
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4.1.6 Concluding Remarks and Policy Suggestions |
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105 | (2) |
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4.2 Analysis of the Co-Movement between Chinese and International Crude Oil Prices |
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107 | (7) |
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4.2.1 The Long-Term Relationship between International and Domestic Crude Oil Prices |
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107 | (1) |
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4.2.2 The Short-Term Relationship between International and Domestic Crude Oil Prices |
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108 | (2) |
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4.2.3 The Dynamic Impact of International Crude Oil Prices on Their Chinese Counterpart |
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110 | (2) |
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112 | (2) |
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4.3 Analyses of the Features of the Changes in China's Crude Oil and Its Products |
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114 | (9) |
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4.3.1 The Price Correlation Analysis of Oil Products and Crude Oil |
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115 | (1) |
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4.3.2 The Ratio (Logarithmic Difference) Analysis of Oil Products and Crude Oil Prices |
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116 | (3) |
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4.3.3 The Dynamic Response Relation between Oil Products and Crude Oil Prices |
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119 | (4) |
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4.3.4 Concluding Remarks and Policy Suggestions |
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123 | (1) |
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4.4 The Impact of Rising International Crude Oil Price on China's Economy |
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123 | (18) |
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4.4.1 Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of Oil Prices Fluctuation |
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124 | (4) |
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4.4.2 Scenarios Analysis of Oil Price Fluctuations |
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128 | (12) |
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4.4.3 Concluding Remarks and Main Policy Suggestions |
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140 | (1) |
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4.5 Forecast of International Oil Price |
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141 | (16) |
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4.5.1 Changeable International Oil Price |
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142 | (3) |
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4.5.2 Long-Term Forecast for Oil Price Based on Wavelet Analysis |
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145 | (4) |
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4.5.3 Mid-Term and Short-Term Forecast Based on Pattern Matching |
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149 | (4) |
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4.5.4 Mid-Term and Short-Term Forecast Adjusted by Futures |
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153 | (2) |
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4.5.5 Conclusions and Policy Suggestions |
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155 | (2) |
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4.6 Study of Chinese Oil Pricing Mechanism |
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157 | (11) |
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4.6.1 Overview of Chinese Oil Pricing Mechanism Development |
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157 | (3) |
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4.6.2 Problems in Chinese Oil Pricing Mechanism |
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160 | (1) |
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4.6.3 Suggestions on Reform of Chinese Oil Pricing Mechanism |
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161 | (7) |
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168 | (3) |
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Chapter 5 Energy, Environment and CO2 Abatement in China |
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171 | (48) |
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5.1 Challenges and Opportunities in Kyoto Era |
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171 | (6) |
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5.1.1 CO2 Abatement and Global Climate Change |
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172 | (1) |
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5.1.2 CO2 Abatement and Economic Growth |
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172 | (1) |
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5.1.3 Contemporary Status of Chinese CO2 Emissions |
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173 | (2) |
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5.1.4 Challenges and Opportunities Faced by Chinese Energy and Environment |
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175 | (2) |
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5.2 Characteristics of Carbon Emissions Trend in China |
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177 | (8) |
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5.2.1 Trend of Chinese Carbon Emissions Intensity |
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178 | (1) |
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5.2.2 Comparison of Carbon Emissions Intensity between China and Developed World |
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179 | (1) |
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5.2.3 Methodology and Data |
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179 | (3) |
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5.2.4 Empirical Results and Discussion |
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182 | (2) |
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184 | (1) |
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5.3 Impact of Population, Economic Growth and Technology on CO2 Emissions |
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185 | (11) |
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5.3.1 Impact Factors of CO2 Emissions |
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185 | (1) |
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186 | (1) |
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5.3.3 Trends of Population, Economic Growth, Technology and CO2 Emissions at Different Income Levels |
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187 | (3) |
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5.3.4 Results Analysis and Discussions |
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190 | (5) |
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195 | (1) |
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5.4 Impact of Lifestyle on Energy Use and CO2 Emissions |
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196 | (12) |
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5.4.1 Relationship of Lifestyle, Energy Use and CO2 Emissions |
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197 | (1) |
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5.4.2 Data and CLA Method |
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198 | (1) |
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5.4.3 Direct and Indirect Impact of Lifestyle on CO2 Emissions |
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199 | (7) |
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206 | (1) |
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5.4.5 Policy Implications |
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207 | (1) |
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5.5 Forecasting China's CO2 Emissions in 2020 |
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208 | (9) |
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5.5.1 Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions |
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208 | (1) |
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5.5.2 Forecasting CO2 Emissions Based on Energy Consumption |
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209 | (1) |
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5.5.3 Forecasting CO2 Emissions under Different Growth Paths |
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210 | (5) |
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5.5.4 Policy Implications |
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215 | (2) |
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217 | (2) |
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Chapter 6 Strategic Petroleum Reserves and National Energy Security |
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219 | (30) |
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6.1 China's Energy Security |
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219 | (4) |
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6.1.1 Definition rind Connotation of Energy Security |
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219 | (2) |
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6.1.2 Contemporary Status of China's Energy Security |
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221 | (1) |
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6.1.3 Hidden Troubles in China's Energy Security |
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222 | (1) |
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6.2 Study on Optimal Scale of Chinese Strategic Petroleum Reserves |
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223 | (8) |
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6.2.1 Contemporary Status of Chinese Strategic Petroleum Reserves |
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223 | (2) |
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6.2.2 Optimal Petroleum Reserves Model Based on Decision Tree |
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225 | (4) |
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6.2.3 Discussion on Different Reserve Scales |
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229 | (2) |
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231 | (1) |
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6.3 Risk Assessment of Oil Imports and Countermeasures |
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231 | (13) |
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6.3.1 Overview of World Oil Trade |
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232 | (2) |
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6.3.2 Risk Evaluation of Crude Oil Import-Based on HHA Method |
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234 | (1) |
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6.3.3 Weight Coefficient of Oil Import Risk Based on AHP Method |
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234 | (2) |
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6.3.4 Risk Assessment of Oil Imports in Some Major Oil Importing Countries |
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236 | (7) |
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243 | (1) |
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6.4 Policy Suggestions on China's Energy Security |
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244 | (3) |
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6.4.1 Energy Diplomacy Policy |
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244 | (1) |
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244 | (1) |
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6.4.3 Strategic Petroleum Reserve Policy |
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245 | (1) |
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6.4.4 Conservation and Renewable Energy Policy |
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246 | (1) |
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6.4.5 Off-Shore Oil Policy |
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247 | (1) |
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247 | (2) |
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Chapter 7 Energy Technology and Its Policy |
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249 | (32) |
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7.1 Paradigm Transitions of Energy Technological Change |
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249 | (7) |
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7.1.1 Phase I: Natural Transitions (before 1859) |
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250 | (1) |
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7.1.2 Phase II: Hydrocarbon Lock-in and Induced Innovation (1859-1992) |
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251 | (4) |
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7.1.3 Phase III: transition toward Clean and Sustainable Energy System (1992) |
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255 | (1) |
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7.2 Oil Shocks and Energy R&D Expenditures Reaction Patterns |
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256 | (7) |
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7.2.1 Adjustment from Demand Side and Supply-Side to Oil Shocks |
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258 | (2) |
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7.2.2 Energy R&D Reaction Patterns to Oil Shocks |
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260 | (3) |
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7.3 Energy R&D Expenditures in Technology Dimension |
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263 | (7) |
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263 | (2) |
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7.3.2 Energy R&D Expenditures in Technology Dimension |
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265 | (2) |
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7.3.3 Energy R&D Expenditures in Country Dimension |
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267 | (3) |
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7.4 The Substitution Routes of Energy in China and the Policy Analysis on Renewable Energy |
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270 | (7) |
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7.4.1 Alternatives to Fossil Energy |
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270 | (2) |
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7.4.2 Case Study: Liquidation Technology of Coal in China |
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272 | (2) |
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7.4.3 Policy Analysis on Renewable Energy Technology |
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274 | (3) |
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7.5 Policy Suggestions for China's Energy Technology |
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277 | (2) |
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279 | (2) |
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Chapter 8 China Energy Outlook |
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281 | (10) |
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8.1 Total Energy Consumption: Large Amount, Rapid Growth, Large Regional Differences |
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281 | (1) |
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8.2 Oil Imports Become Diversified, Imports Risk Reduces Gradually, and SPR Scale Increases Incrementally |
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282 | (1) |
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8.3 Coal Supply and Demand Are Basically Balanced, Clean Energy Is Developed, and Consumption Patterns Are Diversified |
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282 | (2) |
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8.4 Energy Efficiency Is Improved Steadily, Energy Conservation Potential Is Tremendous, and Technological Progress Is the Key |
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284 | (1) |
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8.5 Total Emissions Continue to Expand, and the Industrial Structure Goes toward a Carbon-Intensive Trend. The Impact of Consumer Behavior Should Not Be Underestimated |
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285 | (2) |
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8.6 Energy Strategies and Policies Should Highlight International Cooperation, Diversification, and Sustainability |
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287 | (4) |
References |
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291 | (16) |
Index |
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307 | |