Muutke küpsiste eelistusi

Energy Economics: Modeling and Empirical Analysis in China [Pehme köide]

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  • Formaat: Paperback / softback, 320 pages, kõrgus x laius: 254x178 mm, kaal: 635 g
  • Ilmumisaeg: 02-Oct-2019
  • Kirjastus: CRC Press
  • ISBN-10: 0367385260
  • ISBN-13: 9780367385262
Teised raamatud teemal:
  • Formaat: Paperback / softback, 320 pages, kõrgus x laius: 254x178 mm, kaal: 635 g
  • Ilmumisaeg: 02-Oct-2019
  • Kirjastus: CRC Press
  • ISBN-10: 0367385260
  • ISBN-13: 9780367385262
Teised raamatud teemal:
Energy, just like labor and capital, is universally acknowledged to be the fundamental production factor and strategic resource of an industrial society. Chinas sustained rapid economic growth has resulted in its ever-growing energy import dependency, especially oil. Meanwhile, world energy markets have fluctuated dramatically, and international crude oil prices have risen sharply. These factors have combined to make national energy security a hot strategic issue for Chinas government and society.





Focusing on these issues, Energy Economics: Modeling and Empirical Analysis in China includes analyzes of the scenarios of different policies. A comprehensive reference on Chinas energy policy, the book covers:



















Gross and structural features of Chinas energy economy





Forecasting of Chinas energy supply and demand





Fluctuations in the international oil market and Chinas counter-measures





Energy-environment problems and reduction in CO2 emissions





Strategic petroleum reserves and national energy security





Energy technology progress and change











The first volume of a series of China Energy Reports, this book is a collection of the research results on energy strategy and policy issues investigated by the Center for Energy & Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Institute of Policy and Management (IPM), and Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). It only analyzes the policies of the issue, but also briefly discusses econometric models and methodologies, data sources and pretreatment, and present empirical result analyses and discussions and opportunities for further study. Exploring changes in the international and domestic energy-economy, the book provides support for decision-makers and promotes the exchange of findings with energy policy research peers.
Preface xi
Chapter 1 Review of Energy Development in China
1(30)
1.1 World Energy Development
1(6)
1.1.1 World Energy Reserves and Distribution
1(2)
1.1.2 World Economic Growth and Energy Consumption
3(1)
1.1.3 World Energy Market
4(2)
1.1.4 International Energy and Environmental Cooperation
6(1)
1.2 Energy Production in China
7(6)
1.2.1 Energy Reserves and Distribution in China
7(3)
1.2.2 China Energy Production and Structure
10(2)
1.2.3 Production and Development of Renewable Energy in China
12(1)
1.3 Energy Consumption in China
13(5)
1.3.1 Energy Consumption Quantity and Structure in China
13(3)
1.3.2 Energy Consumption in Industrial Sectors
16(1)
1.3.3 Energy Efficiency and Conservation
17(1)
1.4 Energy Consumption, Resources and Economy in Regions
18(11)
1.4.1 Data and Processing
18(1)
1.4.2 Regional Energy Consumption
19(4)
1.4.3 Regional Differences of Energy Resources and Consumption
23(3)
1.4.4 Regional Differences of Energy Consumption, Resources Distribution and Economic Development
26(3)
1.5 Summary
29(2)
Chapter 2 Structural Relationship between Chinese Energy and Economic Growth
31(40)
2.1 The Cointegration and Causality between Chinese GDP and Energy Consumption
31(11)
2.1.1 Method
32(2)
2.1.2 Cointegration and Causality in Chinese Energy Economy
34(3)
2.1.3 Cointegration and Causality in Three Industries' Energy Economy
37(4)
2.1.4 Conclusions and Policy Implications
41(1)
2.2 Energy Intensity and Economic Structure of China
42(15)
2.2.1 Decomposition of Energy Intensity Based on SDA
43(2)
2.2.2 Impact of Chinese Economic Structure Change on Energy Intensity
45(4)
2.2.3 Impact of the Secondary Industry Structure on Energy Intensity
49(6)
2.2.4 Conclusions
55(2)
2.3 Energy Structure and Energy Efficiency in China
57(10)
2.3.1 China's Energy Economy and Energy Efficiency
58(2)
2.3.2 Empirical Study on the Impact of China's Energy Structure on Energy Efficiency
60(3)
2.3.3 ME and MRS in Chinese Energy Economy
63(3)
2.3.4 Conclusions
66(1)
2.4 Summary
67(4)
Chapter 3 Analysis and Forecasting of Energy Supply and Demands in China
71(24)
3.1 Forecasting of Energy Requirements in 2020
71(15)
3.1.1 Present Research on Energy Requirement
72(1)
3.1.2 Scenario Analysis and Input-Output Analysis
72(1)
3.1.3 China Energy Demand Analysis System CEDAS
73(1)
3.1.4 Scenario Analysis of Energy Requirement in 2020
73(5)
3.1.5 Results
78(7)
3.1.6 Policy Implications
85(1)
3.2 Economic Analysis of Coal Supply System
86(6)
3.2.1 System Dynamics Model and Data for Coril Production and Supply
87(4)
3.2.2 Investment Influence on the Capacity of Coal Supply
91(1)
3.2.3 Conclusions and Remarks
91(1)
3.3 Summary
92(3)
Chapter 4 Fluctuation in Oil Markets and Policy Study
95(76)
4.1 The Characteristics of International Petroleum Price Fluctuation
95(12)
4.1.1 International Petroleum Prices and Their Impact on the Global Economy
95(1)
4.1.2 Oil Price Level Characteristics of Three Oil Crises
96(4)
4.1.3 The Oil Price Level Characteristics in 2005
100(1)
4.1.4 The Long-Term Tendency of International Crude Oil Prices
101(2)
4.1.5 The Short-Term Fluctuations of International and Domestic Crude Oil Prices
103(2)
4.1.6 Concluding Remarks and Policy Suggestions
105(2)
4.2 Analysis of the Co-Movement between Chinese and International Crude Oil Prices
107(7)
4.2.1 The Long-Term Relationship between International and Domestic Crude Oil Prices
107(1)
4.2.2 The Short-Term Relationship between International and Domestic Crude Oil Prices
108(2)
4.2.3 The Dynamic Impact of International Crude Oil Prices on Their Chinese Counterpart
110(2)
4.2.4 Conclusions
112(2)
4.3 Analyses of the Features of the Changes in China's Crude Oil and Its Products
114(9)
4.3.1 The Price Correlation Analysis of Oil Products and Crude Oil
115(1)
4.3.2 The Ratio (Logarithmic Difference) Analysis of Oil Products and Crude Oil Prices
116(3)
4.3.3 The Dynamic Response Relation between Oil Products and Crude Oil Prices
119(4)
4.3.4 Concluding Remarks and Policy Suggestions
123(1)
4.4 The Impact of Rising International Crude Oil Price on China's Economy
123(18)
4.4.1 Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of Oil Prices Fluctuation
124(4)
4.4.2 Scenarios Analysis of Oil Price Fluctuations
128(12)
4.4.3 Concluding Remarks and Main Policy Suggestions
140(1)
4.5 Forecast of International Oil Price
141(16)
4.5.1 Changeable International Oil Price
142(3)
4.5.2 Long-Term Forecast for Oil Price Based on Wavelet Analysis
145(4)
4.5.3 Mid-Term and Short-Term Forecast Based on Pattern Matching
149(4)
4.5.4 Mid-Term and Short-Term Forecast Adjusted by Futures
153(2)
4.5.5 Conclusions and Policy Suggestions
155(2)
4.6 Study of Chinese Oil Pricing Mechanism
157(11)
4.6.1 Overview of Chinese Oil Pricing Mechanism Development
157(3)
4.6.2 Problems in Chinese Oil Pricing Mechanism
160(1)
4.6.3 Suggestions on Reform of Chinese Oil Pricing Mechanism
161(7)
4.7 Summary
168(3)
Chapter 5 Energy, Environment and CO2 Abatement in China
171(48)
5.1 Challenges and Opportunities in Kyoto Era
171(6)
5.1.1 CO2 Abatement and Global Climate Change
172(1)
5.1.2 CO2 Abatement and Economic Growth
172(1)
5.1.3 Contemporary Status of Chinese CO2 Emissions
173(2)
5.1.4 Challenges and Opportunities Faced by Chinese Energy and Environment
175(2)
5.2 Characteristics of Carbon Emissions Trend in China
177(8)
5.2.1 Trend of Chinese Carbon Emissions Intensity
178(1)
5.2.2 Comparison of Carbon Emissions Intensity between China and Developed World
179(1)
5.2.3 Methodology and Data
179(3)
5.2.4 Empirical Results and Discussion
182(2)
5.2.5 Conclusions
184(1)
5.3 Impact of Population, Economic Growth and Technology on CO2 Emissions
185(11)
5.3.1 Impact Factors of CO2 Emissions
185(1)
5.3.2 STIRPAT Model
186(1)
5.3.3 Trends of Population, Economic Growth, Technology and CO2 Emissions at Different Income Levels
187(3)
5.3.4 Results Analysis and Discussions
190(5)
5.3.5 Conclusions
195(1)
5.4 Impact of Lifestyle on Energy Use and CO2 Emissions
196(12)
5.4.1 Relationship of Lifestyle, Energy Use and CO2 Emissions
197(1)
5.4.2 Data and CLA Method
198(1)
5.4.3 Direct and Indirect Impact of Lifestyle on CO2 Emissions
199(7)
5.4.4 Conclusions
206(1)
5.4.5 Policy Implications
207(1)
5.5 Forecasting China's CO2 Emissions in 2020
208(9)
5.5.1 Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions
208(1)
5.5.2 Forecasting CO2 Emissions Based on Energy Consumption
209(1)
5.5.3 Forecasting CO2 Emissions under Different Growth Paths
210(5)
5.5.4 Policy Implications
215(2)
5.6 Summary
217(2)
Chapter 6 Strategic Petroleum Reserves and National Energy Security
219(30)
6.1 China's Energy Security
219(4)
6.1.1 Definition rind Connotation of Energy Security
219(2)
6.1.2 Contemporary Status of China's Energy Security
221(1)
6.1.3 Hidden Troubles in China's Energy Security
222(1)
6.2 Study on Optimal Scale of Chinese Strategic Petroleum Reserves
223(8)
6.2.1 Contemporary Status of Chinese Strategic Petroleum Reserves
223(2)
6.2.2 Optimal Petroleum Reserves Model Based on Decision Tree
225(4)
6.2.3 Discussion on Different Reserve Scales
229(2)
6.2.4 Results
231(1)
6.3 Risk Assessment of Oil Imports and Countermeasures
231(13)
6.3.1 Overview of World Oil Trade
232(2)
6.3.2 Risk Evaluation of Crude Oil Import-Based on HHA Method
234(1)
6.3.3 Weight Coefficient of Oil Import Risk Based on AHP Method
234(2)
6.3.4 Risk Assessment of Oil Imports in Some Major Oil Importing Countries
236(7)
6.3.5 Results
243(1)
6.4 Policy Suggestions on China's Energy Security
244(3)
6.4.1 Energy Diplomacy Policy
244(1)
6.4.2 Oil Import Policy
244(1)
6.4.3 Strategic Petroleum Reserve Policy
245(1)
6.4.4 Conservation and Renewable Energy Policy
246(1)
6.4.5 Off-Shore Oil Policy
247(1)
6.5 Summary
247(2)
Chapter 7 Energy Technology and Its Policy
249(32)
7.1 Paradigm Transitions of Energy Technological Change
249(7)
7.1.1 Phase I: Natural Transitions (before 1859)
250(1)
7.1.2 Phase II: Hydrocarbon Lock-in and Induced Innovation (1859-1992)
251(4)
7.1.3 Phase III: transition toward Clean and Sustainable Energy System (1992)
255(1)
7.2 Oil Shocks and Energy R&D Expenditures Reaction Patterns
256(7)
7.2.1 Adjustment from Demand Side and Supply-Side to Oil Shocks
258(2)
7.2.2 Energy R&D Reaction Patterns to Oil Shocks
260(3)
7.3 Energy R&D Expenditures in Technology Dimension
263(7)
7.3.1 Entropy Statistics
263(2)
7.3.2 Energy R&D Expenditures in Technology Dimension
265(2)
7.3.3 Energy R&D Expenditures in Country Dimension
267(3)
7.4 The Substitution Routes of Energy in China and the Policy Analysis on Renewable Energy
270(7)
7.4.1 Alternatives to Fossil Energy
270(2)
7.4.2 Case Study: Liquidation Technology of Coal in China
272(2)
7.4.3 Policy Analysis on Renewable Energy Technology
274(3)
7.5 Policy Suggestions for China's Energy Technology
277(2)
7.6 Summary
279(2)
Chapter 8 China Energy Outlook
281(10)
8.1 Total Energy Consumption: Large Amount, Rapid Growth, Large Regional Differences
281(1)
8.2 Oil Imports Become Diversified, Imports Risk Reduces Gradually, and SPR Scale Increases Incrementally
282(1)
8.3 Coal Supply and Demand Are Basically Balanced, Clean Energy Is Developed, and Consumption Patterns Are Diversified
282(2)
8.4 Energy Efficiency Is Improved Steadily, Energy Conservation Potential Is Tremendous, and Technological Progress Is the Key
284(1)
8.5 Total Emissions Continue to Expand, and the Industrial Structure Goes toward a Carbon-Intensive Trend. The Impact of Consumer Behavior Should Not Be Underestimated
285(2)
8.6 Energy Strategies and Policies Should Highlight International Cooperation, Diversification, and Sustainability
287(4)
References 291(16)
Index 307
Yi-Ming Wei, Ying Fan, Zhi-Yong Han, Gang Wu