The future is not what it used to be. In this volatile era, with the world changing rapidly, people are more curious than ever to know what lies ahead.
Will relentless consumerism end up destroying our planet? Or can science and technology allow us to innovate our way out of trouble? Perhaps a greater social consciousness and community-based living will take over or, conversely, the competition for limited resources may result in everyone fighting for themselves.
Drawing on these four possible futures, Richard Watson and Oliver Freeman invite us to examine critically the risks and opportunities to come. They discuss the key factors, trends, critical uncertainties, and wildcards that will shape the future, guiding us to a greater awareness of long-term problems and possible solutions and empowering us not only to adapt to what might happen, but also to shape our future and to generate change.
Its impossible to know for certain what the future holds, but we can remove some of its surprises by engaging in a meaningful debate about the choices we face now. This book shows us how.
Arvustused
In 2040, shops will talk to you before you even enter them. Your reputation will precede you like a criminal record and the world you move through will be covered in smart dust ... If you want to know more about what life will be like in 2040, this analysis of four major scenarios [ is] highly readable, entertaining, thought-provoking and full of informed forecasts it would be foolish to ignore. -- Caroline Baum Thought-provoking glimpses into the future of humankind, with practical advice for uncovering and evaluating the most realistic visions of that future. -- Curt Stager, author of Deep Future: the next 100,000 years of life on Earth A rich, provocative, imaginative, and rigorous guide to thinking about the future -- Peter Schwartz, futurist and co-founder of the Global Business Network Gaze into this crystal ball. * Qantas magazine * Reads like a slick business lecture but also draws on such diverse sources as E.M. Forster and Blaise Pascal. * The Age * An intelligent and thought-provoking read * Yen * The new classic of scenario planning -- Adam Kahane, director of Reos Partners, author of Solving Tough Problems, Power and Love, and Collaborating with the Enemy The scenarios are richly described and I suspect they will challenge your mental model of the world in 2040 FutureVision caused me to ponder my own views of the future a first-class example of solid foresight work. -- Andy Hines, Program Coordinator at the University of Houstons Graduate Program in Foresight
Muu info
The future is not what it used to be. In this volatile era, with the world changing rapidly, people are more curious than ever to know what lies ahead.
| Introduction |
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1 | (10) |
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Part I The Future Four-told |
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1 Forward, into the Unknown: why scenario planning? |
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11 | (22) |
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2 The Theatre of the Future: introducing the four futures |
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33 | (8) |
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3 Imagine: a world of intelligence |
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41 | (31) |
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4 Please Please Me: a world of greed |
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72 | (31) |
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5 Dear Prudence: a world of temperance |
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103 | (28) |
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6 Helter Skelter: a world of fear |
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131 | (36) |
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Signs of Change: early warning indicators |
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160 | (7) |
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Part II Planning Scenarios |
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7 Futurevision: the role of foresight |
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167 | (18) |
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8 The Scenario-planning QUEST: introducing the four stages |
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185 | (39) |
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9 Developing Framing Questions: the first stage |
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224 | (19) |
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10 Examining the Environmental Influences: the second stage |
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243 | (40) |
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11 Building Scenario Worlds: the third stage |
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283 | (11) |
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12 Creating Transformational Strategies: the fourth stage |
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294 | (24) |
| Fore-gone Conclusions |
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318 | (3) |
| Epilogue: strategic shocks --- ten game-changers for 2040 |
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321 | (5) |
| References and Useful Sources |
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326 | (3) |
| Acknowledgements |
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329 | |
Richard Watson is a writer, speaker, and strategist who works with leadership teams to challenge existing thinking about what is obvious or inevitable. He is also the founder and publisher of Whats Next, a website that documents global trends, and the co-founder, with Oliver Freeman and Andrew Crosthwaite, of Futures House Europe, a specialist scenario planning consultancy. Richard is the author of the bestselling book Future Files (Scribe), which has been translated into 14 languages. He lectures regularly in London Business Schools Executive Education programmes.
Oliver Freeman is a career publisher and the joint chairman of Third Millennium Publishing Australasia. He is also the co-founder, futurist, and leading scenario planner at the Neville Freeman Agency. Oliver has chaired boards for the Copyright Agency, Viscopy, Publish Australia, and UNSW Press, and is a co-founder of digital companies eBooks.com, Leagle, The Larrikin Post, and homepageDAILY. He is an adjunct professor at the University of Technology Sydney Business School, and has worked extensively with Richard on various scenario-planning projects.
