|
|
|
|
The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets: Second Edition, Updated By The Author |
|
|
|
|
| Preface |
|
vii | |
| Acknowledgments for the Updated Second Edition |
|
xix | |
| Chapter Summaries |
|
xxxv | |
| Prologue |
|
xxxix | |
|
|
|
|
Skewness, Asymmetry, Induction |
|
|
|
One If You're So Rich, Why Aren't You So Smart? |
|
|
5 | (17) |
|
|
|
5 | (1) |
|
|
|
5 | (1) |
|
|
|
6 | (3) |
|
|
|
9 | (2) |
|
|
|
11 | (1) |
|
|
|
12 | (1) |
|
John The High-Yield Trader |
|
|
12 | (5) |
|
|
|
14 | (3) |
|
|
|
17 | (3) |
|
|
|
18 | (2) |
|
Your Dentist Is Rich, Very Rich |
|
|
20 | (2) |
|
Two A Bizarre Accounting Method |
|
|
22 | (21) |
|
|
|
22 | (5) |
|
|
|
23 | (1) |
|
|
|
24 | (2) |
|
An Even More Vicious Roulette |
|
|
26 | (1) |
|
|
|
27 | (6) |
|
|
|
29 | (1) |
|
Solon Visits Regine's Nightclub |
|
|
30 | (3) |
|
George Will Is No Solon: On Counterintuitive Truths |
|
|
33 | (10) |
|
|
|
36 | (1) |
|
A Different Kind of Earthquake |
|
|
37 | (2) |
|
|
|
39 | (1) |
|
|
|
40 | (1) |
|
|
|
41 | (2) |
|
Three A Mathematical Meditation On History |
|
|
43 | (27) |
|
|
|
43 | (1) |
|
|
|
44 | (3) |
|
|
|
47 | (2) |
|
|
|
49 | (9) |
|
|
|
49 | (1) |
|
Zorglubs Crowding the Attic |
|
|
50 | (1) |
|
|
|
51 | (1) |
|
|
|
52 | (3) |
|
Skills in Predicting Past History |
|
|
55 | (1) |
|
|
|
56 | (2) |
|
Distilled Thinking On Your Palmpilot |
|
|
58 | (6) |
|
|
|
58 | (3) |
|
|
|
61 | (2) |
|
|
|
63 | (1) |
|
Philostratus In Monte Carlo: On The Difference Between Noise And Information |
|
|
64 | (6) |
|
Four Randomness, Nonsense, And The Scientific Intellectual |
|
|
70 | (9) |
|
|
|
70 | (5) |
|
|
|
72 | (2) |
|
The Father of All Pseudothinkers |
|
|
74 | (1) |
|
|
|
75 | (4) |
|
Five Survival Of The Least Fit--Can Evolution Be Fooled By Randomness? |
|
|
79 | (18) |
|
Carlos The Emerging-Markets Wizard |
|
|
79 | (7) |
|
|
|
82 | (1) |
|
|
|
83 | (1) |
|
|
|
84 | (2) |
|
John The High-Yield Trader |
|
|
86 | (5) |
|
The Quant Who Knew Computers and Equations |
|
|
87 | (3) |
|
|
|
90 | (1) |
|
A Review Of Market Fools Of Randomness Constants |
|
|
91 | (3) |
|
Naive Evolutionary Theories |
|
|
94 | (3) |
|
Can Evolution Be Fooled by Randomness? |
|
|
96 | (1) |
|
Six Skewness And Asymmetry |
|
|
97 | (19) |
|
The Median Is Not The Message |
|
|
97 | (2) |
|
|
|
99 | (7) |
|
An Arrogant Twenty-nine-year-old Son |
|
|
102 | (1) |
|
|
|
103 | (2) |
|
|
|
105 | (1) |
|
Almost Everybody Is Above Average |
|
|
106 | (2) |
|
|
|
108 | (8) |
|
The Mother of All Deceptions |
|
|
108 | (4) |
|
Why Don't Statisticians Detect Rare Events? |
|
|
112 | (1) |
|
A Mischievous Child Replaces the Black Balls |
|
|
113 | (3) |
|
Seven The Problem Of Induction |
|
|
116 | (20) |
|
|
|
116 | (5) |
|
|
|
117 | (1) |
|
|
|
117 | (4) |
|
Sir Karl's Promoting Agent |
|
|
121 | (10) |
|
|
|
125 | (1) |
|
|
|
126 | (2) |
|
|
|
128 | (1) |
|
|
|
129 | (1) |
|
|
|
130 | (1) |
|
|
|
130 | (1) |
|
|
|
131 | (5) |
|
PART II MONKEYS ON TYPEWRITERS |
|
|
|
Survivorship and Other Biases |
|
|
|
It Depends On The Number Of Monkeys |
|
|
136 | (1) |
|
|
|
137 | (1) |
|
|
|
137 | (2) |
|
Eight Too Many Millionaires Next Door |
|
|
139 | (10) |
|
How To Stop The Sting Of Failure |
|
|
139 | (4) |
|
|
|
139 | (1) |
|
|
|
140 | (1) |
|
|
|
141 | (2) |
|
Double Survivorship Biases |
|
|
143 | (4) |
|
|
|
143 | (2) |
|
|
|
145 | (1) |
|
|
|
145 | (2) |
|
|
|
147 | (2) |
|
Nine It Is Easier To Buy And Sell Than Fry An Egg |
|
|
149 | (23) |
|
|
|
151 | (6) |
|
|
|
151 | (2) |
|
Nobody Has to Be Competent |
|
|
153 | (2) |
|
|
|
155 | (1) |
|
|
|
156 | (1) |
|
|
|
157 | (8) |
|
|
|
157 | (1) |
|
An Interrupted Tennis Game |
|
|
158 | (1) |
|
|
|
159 | (1) |
|
|
|
159 | (1) |
|
|
|
159 | (1) |
|
Data Mining, Statistics, and Charlatanism |
|
|
160 | (1) |
|
The Best Book I Have Ever Read! |
|
|
161 | (1) |
|
|
|
162 | (2) |
|
A More Unsettling Extension |
|
|
164 | (1) |
|
The Earnings Season: Fooled by the Results |
|
|
164 | (1) |
|
|
|
165 | (5) |
|
|
|
166 | (2) |
|
Professor Pearson Goes to Monte Carlo (Literally): Randomness Does Not Look Random! |
|
|
168 | (2) |
|
The Dog That Did Not Bark: On Biases in Scientific Knowledge |
|
|
170 | (1) |
|
|
|
170 | (2) |
|
Ten Loser Takes All --On The Nonlinearities Of Life |
|
|
172 | (10) |
|
|
|
172 | (4) |
|
|
|
174 | (1) |
|
|
|
175 | (1) |
|
Mathematics Inside And Outside The Real World |
|
|
176 | (4) |
|
|
|
178 | (1) |
|
|
|
179 | (1) |
|
Buridan's Donkey or the Good Side of Randomness |
|
|
179 | (1) |
|
|
|
180 | (2) |
|
Eleven Randomness And Our Mind: We Are Probability Blind |
|
|
182 | (40) |
|
|
|
182 | (1) |
|
Some Architectural Considerations |
|
|
183 | (2) |
|
Beware The Philosopher Bureaucrat |
|
|
185 | (2) |
|
|
|
186 | (1) |
|
Flawed, Not Just Imperfect |
|
|
187 | (3) |
|
|
|
187 | (3) |
|
Where Is Napoleon When We Need Him? |
|
|
190 | (7) |
|
"I'm As Good As My Last Trade" and Other Heuristics |
|
|
191 | (3) |
|
Degree in a Fortune Cookie |
|
|
194 | (2) |
|
|
|
196 | (1) |
|
Why We Don't Marry The First Date |
|
|
197 | (13) |
|
|
|
198 | (2) |
|
|
|
200 | (1) |
|
|
|
201 | (2) |
|
|
|
203 | (2) |
|
|
|
205 | (1) |
|
Examples of Biases in Understanding Probability |
|
|
206 | (1) |
|
|
|
207 | (3) |
|
Probabilities And The Media (More Journalists) |
|
|
210 | (12) |
|
|
|
211 | (1) |
|
You Should Be Dead by Now |
|
|
212 | (1) |
|
The Bloomberg Explanations |
|
|
213 | (3) |
|
|
|
216 | (1) |
|
We Do Not Understand Confidence Levels |
|
|
216 | (2) |
|
|
|
218 | (4) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
222 | (1) |
|
|
|
223 | (1) |
|
The Odyssean Mute Command |
|
|
224 | (2) |
|
Twelve Gamblers' ticks And Pigeons In A Box |
|
|
226 | (8) |
|
Taxi-Cab English And Causality |
|
|
226 | (3) |
|
The Skinner Pigeon Experiment |
|
|
229 | (2) |
|
|
|
231 | (3) |
|
Thirteen Carneades Comes To Rome: On Probability And Skepticism |
|
|
234 | (11) |
|
|
|
235 | (3) |
|
Probability, the Child of Skepticism |
|
|
237 | (1) |
|
Monsieur De Norpois' Opinions |
|
|
238 | (3) |
|
Path Dependence of Beliefs |
|
|
239 | (2) |
|
Computing Instead Of Thinking |
|
|
241 | (3) |
|
|
|
244 | (1) |
|
Fourteen Bacchus Abandons Antony |
|
|
245 | (5) |
|
Notes On Jackie O.'s Funeral |
|
|
247 | (2) |
|
Randomness And Personal Elegance |
|
|
249 | (1) |
|
Epilogue SOLON TOLD YOU SO |
|
|
250 | (3) |
|
Beware the London Traffic Jams |
|
|
250 | (3) |
|
Postscript Three Afterthoughts In The Shower |
|
|
253 | |
|
First Thought: The Inverse Skills Problem |
|
|
254 | (3) |
|
Second Thought: On Some Additional Benefits Of Randomness |
|
|
257 | (5) |
|
Uncertainty and Happiness |
|
|
257 | (4) |
|
The Scrambling of Messages |
|
|
261 | (1) |
|
Third Thought: Standing On One Leg |
|
|
262 | |
| Acknowledgments for the First Edition |
|
263 | (4) |
| A Trip to the Library: Notes and Reading Recommendations |
|
267 | (2) |
| Notes |
|
269 | (24) |
| References |
|
293 | (14) |
| Index |
|
307 | (120) |
|
Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder |
|
|
|
|
|
| Chapter Summaries and Map |
|
xix | |
| Prologue |
|
3 | (17) |
| Appendix: The Triad, or A Map of the World and Things Along the Three Properties |
|
20 | |
|
Book I The Antifragile: An Introduction |
|
|
29 | (52) |
|
Chapter 1 Between Damocles and Hydra |
|
|
31 | (10) |
|
|
|
31 | (2) |
|
|
|
33 | (3) |
|
On the Necessity of Naming |
|
|
35 | (1) |
|
|
|
36 | (2) |
|
Domain Independence Is Domain Dependent |
|
|
38 | (3) |
|
Chapter 2 Overcompensation and Overreaction Everywhere |
|
|
41 | (13) |
|
|
|
43 | (5) |
|
Antifragile Responses as Redundancy |
|
|
44 | (4) |
|
On the Antifragility of Riots, Love, and Other Unexpected Beneficiaries of Stress |
|
|
48 | (6) |
|
Please Ban My Book: The Antifragility of Information |
|
|
49 | (2) |
|
|
|
51 | (3) |
|
Chapter 3 The Cat and the Washing Machine |
|
|
54 | (9) |
|
|
|
56 | (1) |
|
Stressors Are Information |
|
|
56 | (5) |
|
|
|
60 | (1) |
|
|
|
61 | (2) |
|
|
|
61 | (1) |
|
|
|
62 | (1) |
|
The Secret Thirst for Chance |
|
|
63 | (1) |
|
Chapter 4 What Kills Me Makes Others Stronger |
|
|
63 | (18) |
|
|
|
63 | (8) |
|
Evolution and Unpredictability |
|
|
66 | (4) |
|
Organisms Are Populations and Populations Are Organisms |
|
|
70 | (1) |
|
|
|
71 | (3) |
|
Learning from the Mistakes of Others |
|
|
72 | (1) |
|
How to Become Mother Teresa |
|
|
73 | (1) |
|
Why the Aggregate Hates the Individual |
|
|
74 | (2) |
|
What Does Not Kill Me Kills Others |
|
|
76 | (5) |
|
|
|
76 | (3) |
|
National Entrepreneur Day |
|
|
79 | (2) |
|
Book II Modernity And The Denial Of Antifragility |
|
|
81 | (60) |
|
Chapter 5 The Souk and the Office Building |
|
|
83 | (17) |
|
|
|
83 | (5) |
|
|
|
83 | (5) |
|
|
|
88 | (2) |
|
|
|
90 | (4) |
|
|
|
92 | (2) |
|
|
|
94 | (6) |
|
|
|
95 | (1) |
|
|
|
96 | (1) |
|
|
|
97 | (3) |
|
Chapter 6 Tell Them I Love (Some) Randomness |
|
|
100 | (10) |
|
|
|
102 | (3) |
|
|
|
103 | (2) |
|
That Time Bomb Called Stability |
|
|
105 | (3) |
|
The Second Step: Do (Small) Wars Save Lives? |
|
|
103 | (3) |
|
What to Tell the Foreign Policy Makers |
|
|
106 | (2) |
|
What Do We Call Here Modernity? |
|
|
108 | (2) |
|
Chapter 7 Naive Intervention |
|
|
110 | (24) |
|
Intervention and Iatrogenics |
|
|
111 | (10) |
|
|
|
112 | (1) |
|
The Opposite of Iatrogenics |
|
|
113 | (1) |
|
Iatrogenics in High Places |
|
|
114 | (2) |
|
Can a Whale Fly Like an Eagle? |
|
|
116 | (1) |
|
|
|
117 | (2) |
|
Non-Naive Interventionism |
|
|
119 | (2) |
|
In Praise of Procrastination--the Fabian Kind |
|
|
121 | (3) |
|
Neuroticism in Industrial Proportions |
|
|
124 | (1) |
|
A Legal Way to Kill People |
|
|
125 | (2) |
|
|
|
127 | (1) |
|
The State Can Help--When Incompetent |
|
|
128 | (3) |
|
France Is Messier than You Think |
|
|
129 | (2) |
|
Sweden and the Large State |
|
|
131 | (1) |
|
Catalyst-as-Cause Confusion |
|
|
131 | (3) |
|
Chapter 8 Prediction as a Child of Modernity |
|
|
134 | (7) |
|
|
|
133 | (1) |
|
|
|
133 | (3) |
|
|
|
136 | (1) |
|
The Idea of Becoming a Non-Turkey |
|
|
137 | (2) |
|
|
|
139 | (2) |
|
Book III A Nonpredictive View Of The World |
|
|
141 | (28) |
|
Chapter 9 Fat Tony and the Fragilistas |
|
|
143 | (8) |
|
Indolent Fellow Travelers |
|
|
143 | (4) |
|
|
|
144 | (1) |
|
The Antifragility of Libraries |
|
|
145 | (2) |
|
On Suckers and Nonsuckers |
|
|
147 | (4) |
|
|
|
149 | (1) |
|
What the Nonpredictor Can Predict |
|
|
150 | (1) |
|
Chapter 10 Seneca's Upside and Downside |
|
|
151 | (8) |
|
|
|
151 | (2) |
|
|
|
153 | (1) |
|
Stoicism's Emotional Robustification |
|
|
154 | (2) |
|
The Domestication of Emotions |
|
|
156 | (1) |
|
|
|
156 | (1) |
|
The Foundational Asymmetry |
|
|
157 | (2) |
|
Chapter 11 Never Marry the Rock Star |
|
|
159 | (10) |
|
On the Irreversibility of Broken Packages |
|
|
159 | (2) |
|
|
|
161 | (8) |
|
The Accountant and the Rock Star |
|
|
162 | (1) |
|
Away from the Golden Middle |
|
|
163 | (1) |
|
The Domestication of Uncertainty |
|
|
163 | (6) |
|
Book IV Optionality, Technology, And The Intelligence Of Antifragility |
|
|
169 | (94) |
|
Do You Really Know Where You Are Going? |
|
|
169 | (4) |
|
|
|
170 | (1) |
|
America's Principal Asset |
|
|
171 | (2) |
|
Chapter 12 Thales' Sweet Grapes |
|
|
173 | (14) |
|
|
|
173 | (7) |
|
The Options of Sweet Grapes |
|
|
173 | (3) |
|
Saturday Evening in London |
|
|
176 | (1) |
|
|
|
177 | (1) |
|
|
|
178 | (1) |
|
Things That Like Dispersion |
|
|
178 | (2) |
|
The Thalesian and the Aristotelian |
|
|
180 | (7) |
|
|
|
180 | (1) |
|
|
|
181 | (2) |
|
|
|
183 | (1) |
|
|
|
184 | (1) |
|
Roman Politics Likes Optionality |
|
|
185 | (1) |
|
|
|
185 | (2) |
|
Chapter 13 Lecturing Birds on How to Fly |
|
|
187 | (15) |
|
|
|
190 | (1) |
|
|
|
190 | (2) |
|
Search and How Errors Can Be Investments |
|
|
192 | (1) |
|
Creative and Uncreative Destructions |
|
|
193 | (1) |
|
The Soviet-Harvard Department of Ornithology |
|
|
194 | (3) |
|
|
|
197 | (1) |
|
|
|
197 | (1) |
|
|
|
198 | (2) |
|
Cherry-picking (or the Fallacy of Confirmation) |
|
|
200 | (2) |
|
Chapter 14 When Two Things Are Not the "Same Thing" |
|
|
202 | (15) |
|
|
|
203 | (1) |
|
L'Art pour l'Art, to Learn for Learning's Sake |
|
|
204 | (2) |
|
|
|
206 | (1) |
|
|
|
207 | (4) |
|
How Fat Tony Got Rich (and Fat) |
|
|
210 | (1) |
|
|
|
211 | (1) |
|
Prometheus and Epimetheus |
|
|
212 | (5) |
|
Chapter 15 History Written by the Losers |
|
|
217 | (24) |
|
The Evidence Staring at Us |
|
|
221 | (3) |
|
|
|
224 | (2) |
|
The Industrial Revolution |
|
|
226 | (3) |
|
Governments Should Spend on Nonteleological Tinkering, Not Research |
|
|
229 | (1) |
|
|
|
230 | (5) |
|
Matt Ridley's Anti-Teleological Argument |
|
|
233 | (1) |
|
|
|
234 | (1) |
|
The Inverse Turkey Problem |
|
|
235 | (3) |
|
To Fail Seven Times, Plus or Minus Two |
|
|
238 | (1) |
|
The Charlatan, the Academic, and the Showman 23 |
|
|
238 | (3) |
|
Chapter 16 A Lesson in Disorder |
|
|
241 | (8) |
|
The Ecological and the Ludic |
|
|
241 | (2) |
|
The Touristification of the Soccer Mom |
|
|
242 | (1) |
|
An Antifragile (Barbell) Education |
|
|
243 | (6) |
|
Chapter 17 Fat Tony Debates Socrates |
|
|
249 | (14) |
|
|
|
250 | (1) |
|
|
|
251 | (2) |
|
Primacy of Definitional Knowledge |
|
|
253 | (6) |
|
Mistaking the Unintelligible for the Unintelligent |
|
|
234 | (23) |
|
|
|
257 | (2) |
|
The Sucker-Nonsucker Distinction |
|
|
259 | (2) |
|
Fragility, Not Probability |
|
|
259 | (1) |
|
Conflation of Events and Exposure |
|
|
260 | (1) |
|
|
|
261 | (2) |
|
|
|
261 | (2) |
|
Book V The Nonlinear And The Nonlinear |
|
|
263 | (39) |
|
On the Importance of Attics |
|
|
263 | (4) |
|
Chapter 18 On the Difference Between a Large Stone and a Thousand Pebbles |
|
|
267 | (23) |
|
A Simple Rule to Detect the Fragile |
|
|
268 | (6) |
|
Why Is Fragility Nonlinear? |
|
|
270 | (1) |
|
When to Smile and When to Frown |
|
|
271 | (2) |
|
Why Is the Concave Hurt by Black Swan Events? |
|
|
273 | (1) |
|
|
|
274 | (2) |
|
Someone Call New York City Officials |
|
|
273 | (3) |
|
|
|
276 | (2) |
|
|
|
277 | (1) |
|
|
|
278 | (1) |
|
Small May Be Ugly, It Is Certainly Less Fragile |
|
|
278 | (5) |
|
|
|
278 | (2) |
|
Kerviel and Micro-Kerviel |
|
|
280 | (3) |
|
How to Exit a Movie Theater |
|
|
283 | (1) |
|
|
|
283 | (3) |
|
Why Planes Don't Arrive Early |
|
|
283 | (3) |
|
Wars, Deficits, and Deficits |
|
|
286 | (1) |
|
Where the "Efficient" Is Not Efficient |
|
|
286 | (4) |
|
Pollution and Harm to the Planet |
|
|
287 | (1) |
|
The Nonlinearity of Wealth |
|
|
288 | (1) |
|
|
|
289 | (1) |
|
Chapter 19 The Philosopher's Stone and Its Inverse |
|
|
290 | (12) |
|
How to Detect Who Will Go Bust |
|
|
290 | (5) |
|
The Idea of Positive and Negative Model Error |
|
|
293 | (2) |
|
How to Lose a Grandmother |
|
|
295 | (2) |
|
Now the Philosopher's Stone |
|
|
297 | (5) |
|
How to Transform Gold into Mud: The Inverse Philosopher's Stone |
|
|
299 | (3) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
302 | (1) |
|
|
|
303 | (1) |
|
|
|
303 | (6) |
|
|
|
303 | (6) |
|
Chapter 20 Time and Fragility |
|
|
309 | (27) |
|
|
|
309 | (2) |
|
|
|
311 | (5) |
|
|
|
313 | (3) |
|
To Age in Reverse: The Lindy Effect |
|
|
316 | (5) |
|
|
|
321 | (3) |
|
Heomania and Treadmdl Effects |
|
|
322 | (2) |
|
Architecture and the Irreversible Neomania |
|
|
324 | (5) |
|
|
|
317 | (10) |
|
|
|
327 | (2) |
|
Turning Science into Journalism |
|
|
329 | (2) |
|
|
|
331 | (1) |
|
|
|
332 | (2) |
|
|
|
334 | (2) |
|
|
|
333 | (3) |
|
Chapter 21 Medicine, Convexity, and Opacity |
|
|
336 | (1) |
|
How to Argue in an Emergency Room |
|
|
338 | (1) |
|
First Principle of Iatrogenics (Empiricism) |
|
|
339 | (1) |
|
Second Principle of Iatrogenics (Nonlinearity in Response) |
|
|
340 | (4) |
|
Jensen's Inequality in Medicine |
|
|
342 | (2) |
|
|
|
344 | (4) |
|
The Never-ending History of Turkey Situations |
|
|
344 | (4) |
|
|
|
348 | (1) |
|
|
|
349 | (1) |
|
Plead Ignorance of Biology: Phenomenology |
|
|
350 | (1) |
|
The Ancients Were More Caustic |
|
|
351 | (2) |
|
How to Medicate Half the Population |
|
|
353 | (1) |
|
The "Rigor of Mathematics" in Medicine |
|
|
353 | (3) |
|
|
|
356 | (1) |
|
Chapter 22 To Live Long, but Not Too Long |
|
|
357 | (1) |
|
Life Expectancy and Convexity |
|
|
357 | (8) |
|
Subtraction Adds to Your Life |
|
|
359 | (4) |
|
|
|
363 | (1) |
|
Religion and Naive Interventionism |
|
|
364 | (1) |
|
If It's Wednesday, I Must Be Vegan |
|
|
365 | (8) |
|
Convexity Effects and Random Nutrition |
|
|
365 | (3) |
|
|
|
368 | (1) |
|
|
|
369 | (1) |
|
|
|
370 | (3) |
|
Bock VII The Ethics Of Fragility And Antifragility |
|
|
373 | |
|
Chapter 23 Skin in the Game: Antifragility and Optionality at the Expense of Others |
|
|
373 | (34) |
|
|
|
380 | (2) |
|
|
|
382 | (10) |
|
|
|
383 | (3) |
|
|
|
386 | (3) |
|
The Problem of Frequency, or How to Lose Arguments |
|
|
389 | (2) |
|
The Right Decision for the Wrong Reason |
|
|
391 | (1) |
|
The Ancients and the Stiglitz Syndrome |
|
|
392 | (5) |
|
|
|
393 | (1) |
|
|
|
393 | (1) |
|
The Problem of Insulation |
|
|
394 | (1) |
|
|
|
395 | (1) |
|
|
|
396 | (1) |
|
Options, Antifragility, and Social Fairness |
|
|
397 | (3) |
|
The Robert Rubin Free Option |
|
|
398 | (1) |
|
|
|
399 | (1) |
|
The Antifragility and Ethics of (Large) Corporations |
|
|
400 | (7) |
|
Artisans, Marketing, and the Cheapest to Deliver |
|
|
402 | (1) |
|
Lawrence of Arabia or Meyer Lansky |
|
|
403 | (3) |
|
|
|
406 | (1) |
|
Chapter 24 Fitting Ethics to a Profession |
|
|
407 | (14) |
|
Wealth Without Independence |
|
|
408 | (1) |
|
The Professionals and the Collective |
|
|
409 | (3) |
|
The Ethical and the Legal |
|
|
412 | (4) |
|
|
|
414 | (2) |
|
Big Data and the Researcher's Option |
|
|
416 | (3) |
|
The Tyranny of the Collective |
|
|
419 | (2) |
|
|
|
421 | |
|
|
|
425 | |
| Glossary |
|
427 | (8) |
| Appendix I |
|
435 | (12) |
| Appendix II |
|
447 | (10) |
| Additional Notes, Afterthoughts, and Further Reading |
|
457 | (24) |
| Bibliography |
|
481 | (24) |
| Acknowledgments |
|
505 | (2) |
| Index |
|
507 | |
|
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The Bed Of Procrustes |
|
|
|
Philosophical And Practical Aphorisms: Random House New York |
|
|
| Procrustes |
|
xi | |
| Notice |
|
xiii | |
|
|
|
3 | (7) |
|
|
|
10 | (12) |
|
|
|
22 | (3) |
|
The Sacred and the Profane |
|
|
25 | (5) |
|
Chance, Success, Happiness, and Stoicism |
|
|
30 | (15) |
|
Charming and Less Charming Sucker Problems |
|
|
45 | (6) |
|
Theseus, or Living the Paleo Life |
|
|
51 | (9) |
|
|
|
60 | (11) |
|
The Universal and the Particular |
|
|
71 | (3) |
|
|
|
74 | (6) |
|
|
|
80 | (4) |
|
|
|
84 | (14) |
|
Robustness and Antifragility |
|
|
98 | (6) |
|
The Ludic Fallacy and Domain Dependence |
|
|
104 | (4) |
|
Epistemology and Subtractive Knowledge |
|
|
108 | (4) |
|
The Scandal of Prediction |
|
|
112 | (2) |
|
Being a Philosopher and Managing to Remain One |
|
|
114 | (5) |
|
Economic Life and Other Very Vulgar Subjects |
|
|
119 | (10) |
|
The Sage, the Weak, and the Magnificent |
|
|
129 | (8) |
|
The Implicit and the Explicit |
|
|
137 | (6) |
|
On the Varieties of Love and Nonlove |
|
|
143 | (5) |
|
|
|
148 | |
| Postface |
|
149 | (8) |
| Acknowledgments |
|
157 | (224) |
|
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable |
|
|
|
"The most prophetic voice of all" |
|
|
|
|
|
| Prologue |
|
xxi | |
| On the Plumage of Birds |
|
xxi | |
| What You Do Not Know |
|
xxiii | |
| Experts and "Empty Suits" |
|
xxiv | |
| Learning to Learn |
|
xxv | |
| A New Kind of Ingratitude |
|
xxvii | |
| Life Is Very Unusual |
|
xxviii | |
| Plato and the Nerd |
|
xxix | |
| Too Dull to Write About |
|
xxx | |
| The Bottom Line |
|
xxxii | |
| Chapters Map |
|
xxxii | |
|
PART ONE UMBERTO ECO'S ANTIUBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION |
|
|
1 | (134) |
|
Chapter 1 The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic |
|
|
3 | (20) |
|
|
|
3 | (5) |
|
|
|
6 | (1) |
|
|
|
7 | (1) |
|
|
|
7 | (1) |
|
History and the Triplet of Opacity |
|
|
8 | (7) |
|
Nobody Knows What's Going On |
|
|
9 | (1) |
|
History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps |
|
|
10 | (2) |
|
Dear Diary: On History Running Backward |
|
|
12 | (2) |
|
|
|
14 | (1) |
|
|
|
15 | (3) |
|
|
|
17 | (1) |
|
|
|
18 | (5) |
|
The Four-Letter Word of Independence |
|
|
20 | (1) |
|
|
|
21 | (2) |
|
Chapter 2 Yevgenia's Black Swan |
|
|
23 | (3) |
|
Chapter 3 The Speculator and the Prostitute |
|
|
26 | (12) |
|
|
|
26 | (2) |
|
|
|
28 | (3) |
|
The Advent of Scalability |
|
|
29 | (2) |
|
Scalability and Globalization |
|
|
31 | (1) |
|
Travels Inside Mediocristan |
|
|
32 | (6) |
|
The Strange Country of Extremistan |
|
|
33 | (1) |
|
Extremistan and Knowledge |
|
|
34 | (1) |
|
|
|
35 | (1) |
|
The Tyranny of the Accident |
|
|
35 | (3) |
|
Chapter 4 One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker |
|
|
38 | (13) |
|
How to Learn from the Turkey |
|
|
40 | (5) |
|
|
|
43 | (1) |
|
A Black Swan Is Relative to Knowledge |
|
|
44 | (1) |
|
A Brief History of the Black Swan Problem |
|
|
45 | (6) |
|
Sextus the (Alas) Empirical |
|
|
46 | (1) |
|
|
|
47 | (1) |
|
The Skeptic, Friend of Religion |
|
|
48 | (1) |
|
I Don't Want to Be a Turkey |
|
|
49 | (1) |
|
They Want to Live in Mediocristan |
|
|
49 | (2) |
|
Chapter 5 Confirmation Shmonfirmationl |
|
|
51 | (11) |
|
Zoogles Are Not All Boogies |
|
|
53 | (2) |
|
|
|
55 | (1) |
|
|
|
56 | (6) |
|
|
|
58 | (1) |
|
|
|
59 | (1) |
|
|
|
60 | (1) |
|
|
|
61 | (1) |
|
Chapter 6 The Narrative Fallacy |
|
|
62 | (23) |
|
On the Causes of My Rejection of Causes |
|
|
62 | (2) |
|
|
|
64 | (6) |
|
|
|
67 | (1) |
|
Andrey Nikolayevich's Rule |
|
|
68 | (2) |
|
|
|
70 | (1) |
|
Remembrance of Things Not Quite Past |
|
|
70 | (4) |
|
|
|
71 | (2) |
|
|
|
73 | (1) |
|
To Be Wrong with Infinite Precision |
|
|
74 | (2) |
|
|
|
75 | (1) |
|
The Sensational and the Black Swan |
|
|
76 | (5) |
|
|
|
77 | (2) |
|
The Pull of the Sensational |
|
|
79 | (2) |
|
|
|
81 | (4) |
|
|
|
82 | (1) |
|
How to Avert the Narrative Fallacy |
|
|
83 | (2) |
|
Chapter 7 Living In the Antechamber of Hope |
|
|
85 | (15) |
|
|
|
86 | (8) |
|
Where the Relevant Is the Sensational |
|
|
87 | (1) |
|
|
|
88 | (1) |
|
|
|
89 | (2) |
|
Human Nature, Happiness, and Lumpy Rewards |
|
|
91 | (1) |
|
|
|
92 | (1) |
|
|
|
92 | (1) |
|
The Sweet Trap of Anticipation |
|
|
93 | (1) |
|
When You Need the Bastiani Fortress |
|
|
94 | (1) |
|
El desierto de los tartaros |
|
|
94 | (6) |
|
|
|
96 | (4) |
|
Chapter 8 Giacomo Casanova's Unfailing Luck: The Problem of Silent Evidence |
|
|
100 | (22) |
|
The Story of the Drowned Worshippers |
|
|
100 | (2) |
|
|
|
102 | (3) |
|
How to Become a Millionaire in Ten Steps |
|
|
105 | (2) |
|
|
|
107 | (3) |
|
|
|
108 | (1) |
|
|
|
108 | (1) |
|
The Evolution of the Swimmer's Body |
|
|
109 | (1) |
|
What You See and What You Don't See |
|
|
110 | (3) |
|
|
|
112 | (1) |
|
The Teflon-style Protection of Giacomo Casanova |
|
|
113 | (4) |
|
|
|
115 | (2) |
|
I Am a Black Swan: The Anthropic Bias |
|
|
117 | (5) |
|
|
|
119 | (3) |
|
Chapter 9 The Ludic Fallacy, or The Uncertainty of the Nerd |
|
|
122 | (13) |
|
|
|
122 | (3) |
|
|
|
123 | (2) |
|
|
|
125 | (6) |
|
The Uncertainty of the Nerd |
|
|
127 | (2) |
|
Gambling with the Wrong Dice |
|
|
129 | (2) |
|
|
|
131 | (4) |
|
The Cosmetic Rises to the Surface |
|
|
131 | (1) |
|
|
|
132 | (3) |
|
PART TWO WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT |
|
|
135 | (78) |
|
From Yogi Berra to Henri Poincare |
|
|
136 | (1) |
|
Chapter 10 The Scandal of Prediction |
|
|
137 | (28) |
|
On the Vagueness of Catherine's Lover Count |
|
|
138 | (3) |
|
Black Swan Blindness Redux |
|
|
141 | (1) |
|
|
|
142 | (1) |
|
Information Is Bad for Knowledge |
|
|
142 | (3) |
|
The Expert Problem, or the Tragedy of the Empty Suit |
|
|
145 | (11) |
|
What Moves and What Does Not Move |
|
|
145 | (3) |
|
How to Have the Last Laugh |
|
|
148 | (1) |
|
|
|
149 | (1) |
|
|
|
150 | (1) |
|
|
|
151 | (3) |
|
|
|
154 | (2) |
|
"Other Than That," It Was Okay |
|
|
156 | (4) |
|
The Beauty of Technology: Excel Spreadsheets |
|
|
158 | (1) |
|
The Character of Prediction Errors |
|
|
159 | (1) |
|
Don't Cross a River if It Is (on Average) Four Feet Deep |
|
|
160 | (5) |
|
|
|
163 | (1) |
|
|
|
163 | (2) |
|
Chapter 11 How to Look for Bird Poop |
|
|
165 | (25) |
|
How to Look for Bird Poop |
|
|
165 | (6) |
|
|
|
166 | (3) |
|
A Solution Waiting for a Problem |
|
|
169 | (1) |
|
|
|
170 | (1) |
|
How to Predict Your Predictions! |
|
|
171 | (3) |
|
|
|
174 | (11) |
|
Third Republic-Style Decorum |
|
|
174 | (2) |
|
|
|
176 | (3) |
|
|
|
179 | (2) |
|
|
|
181 | (2) |
|
|
|
183 | (1) |
|
|
|
183 | (2) |
|
|
|
185 | (4) |
|
That Great Anticipation Machine |
|
|
189 | (1) |
|
Chapter 12 Eplstemocracy, a Dream |
|
|
190 | (11) |
|
Monsieur de Montaigne, Epistemocrat |
|
|
191 | (1) |
|
|
|
192 | (1) |
|
The Past's Past, and the Past's Future |
|
|
193 | (8) |
|
Prediction, Misprediction, and Happiness |
|
|
194 | (1) |
|
Helenus and the Reverse Prophecies |
|
|
195 | (1) |
|
|
|
196 | (1) |
|
Once Again, Incomplete Information |
|
|
197 | (1) |
|
|
|
198 | (3) |
|
Chapter 13 Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do if You Cannot Predict? |
|
|
201 | (12) |
|
Advice Is Cheap, Very Cheap |
|
|
201 | (2) |
|
Being a Fool in the Right Places |
|
|
203 | (1) |
|
|
|
203 | (1) |
|
The Idea of Positive Accident |
|
|
203 | (10) |
|
Volatility and Risk of Black Swan |
|
|
204 | (1) |
|
|
|
205 | (1) |
|
|
|
206 | (4) |
|
|
|
210 | (3) |
|
PART THREE THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN |
|
|
213 | (82) |
|
Chapter 14 From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Back |
|
|
215 | (14) |
|
|
|
215 | (1) |
|
|
|
216 | (2) |
|
|
|
218 | (2) |
|
|
|
220 | (1) |
|
Nobody Is Safe in Extremistan |
|
|
220 | (7) |
|
|
|
221 | (2) |
|
|
|
223 | (2) |
|
|
|
225 | (2) |
|
Reversals Away from Extremistan |
|
|
227 | (2) |
|
Chapter 15 The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud |
|
|
229 | (24) |
|
The Gaussian and the Mandelbrotian |
|
|
229 | (11) |
|
The Increase in the Decrease |
|
|
231 | (1) |
|
|
|
232 | (2) |
|
|
|
234 | (1) |
|
|
|
234 | (1) |
|
Extremistan and the 80/20 Rule |
|
|
235 | (1) |
|
|
|
236 | (1) |
|
How Coffee Drinking Can Be Safe |
|
|
237 | (2) |
|
|
|
239 | (1) |
|
How to Cause Catastrophes |
|
|
240 | (1) |
|
Quetelet's Average Monster |
|
|
240 | (5) |
|
|
|
241 | (1) |
|
|
|
242 | (1) |
|
|
|
243 | (1) |
|
Eliminating Unfair Influence |
|
|
243 | (1) |
|
"The Greeks Would Have Deified It" |
|
|
244 | (1) |
|
|
|
244 | (1) |
|
A (Literary) Thought Experiment on Where the Bell Curve Comes From |
|
|
245 | (5) |
|
Those Comforting Assumptions |
|
|
250 | (1) |
|
"The Ubiquity of the Gaussian" |
|
|
251 | (2) |
|
Chapter 16 The Aesthetics of Randomness |
|
|
253 | (21) |
|
|
|
253 | (3) |
|
The Platonicity of Triangles |
|
|
256 | (6) |
|
|
|
256 | (1) |
|
|
|
257 | (2) |
|
A Visual Approach to Extremistan/Mediocristan |
|
|
259 | (1) |
|
|
|
260 | (2) |
|
The Logic of Fractal Randomness (with a Warning) |
|
|
262 | (8) |
|
The Problem of the Upper Bound |
|
|
266 | (1) |
|
|
|
266 | (1) |
|
The Water Puddle Revisited |
|
|
267 | (1) |
|
From Representation to Reality |
|
|
268 | (2) |
|
Once Again, Beware the Forecasters |
|
|
270 | (2) |
|
Once Again, a Happy Solution |
|
|
270 | (2) |
|
|
|
272 | (2) |
|
Chapter 17 Locke's Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places |
|
|
274 | (12) |
|
|
|
275 | (1) |
|
|
|
275 | (2) |
|
Anyone Can Become President |
|
|
277 | (1) |
|
|
|
278 | (3) |
|
|
|
281 | (1) |
|
|
|
281 | (5) |
|
|
|
282 | (4) |
|
Chapter 18 The Uncertainty of the Phony |
|
|
286 | (9) |
|
|
|
286 | (3) |
|
|
|
287 | (1) |
|
Can Philosophers Be Dangerous to Society? |
|
|
288 | (1) |
|
|
|
289 | (1) |
|
How Many Wittgensteins Can Dance on the Head of a Pin? |
|
|
289 | (6) |
|
Where Is Popper When You Need Him? |
|
|
290 | (1) |
|
The Bishop and the Analyst |
|
|
291 | (1) |
|
Easier Than You Think: The Problem of Decision Under Skepticism |
|
|
292 | (3) |
|
|
|
|
Chapter 19 Half and Half, or How to Get Even with the Black Swan |
|
|
295 | (10) |
|
When Missing a Train Is Painless |
|
|
297 | (1) |
|
|
|
297 | (2) |
|
Epilogue: Yevgenia's White Swans |
|
|
299 | (2) |
|
|
|
301 | (4) |
|
POSTSCRIPT ESSAY: ON ROBUSTNESS AND FRAGILITY, DEEPER PHILOSOPHICAL AND EMPIRICAL REFLECTIONS |
|
|
305 | |
|
I Learning from Mother Nature, the Oldest and the Wisest |
|
|
307 | (17) |
|
|
|
308 | (2) |
|
|
|
309 | (1) |
|
|
|
310 | (11) |
|
|
|
312 | (2) |
|
|
|
314 | (1) |
|
Climate Change and "Too Big" Polluters |
|
|
315 | (1) |
|
|
|
316 | (1) |
|
The Other Types of Redundancy |
|
|
317 | (2) |
|
Distinctions Without a Difference, Differences Without a Distinction |
|
|
319 | (2) |
|
A Society Robust to Error |
|
|
321 | (3) |
|
II Why I Do All This Walking, or How Systems Become Fragile |
|
|
324 | (6) |
|
|
|
324 | (6) |
|
Beware Manufactured Stability |
|
|
329 | (1) |
|
III Margaritas Ante Porcos |
|
|
330 | (9) |
|
Main Errors in Understanding the Message |
|
|
331 | (8) |
|
How to Expunge One's Crimes |
|
|
335 | (1) |
|
|
|
336 | (3) |
|
IV Asperger and the Ontological Black Swan |
|
|
339 | (8) |
|
|
|
340 | (1) |
|
|
|
341 | (2) |
|
Probability has to be Subjective |
|
|
343 | (2) |
|
Probability on a Thermometer |
|
|
345 | (2) |
|
V (Perhaps) the Most Useful Problem In the History of Modem Philosophy |
|
|
347 | (14) |
|
|
|
348 | (1) |
|
The Dependence on Theory for Rare Events |
|
|
349 | (6) |
|
|
|
350 | (1) |
|
An Undecidability Theorem |
|
|
351 | (1) |
|
|
|
351 | (1) |
|
From Reality to Representation |
|
|
352 | (3) |
|
|
|
355 | (1) |
|
Fallacy of the Single Event Probability |
|
|
355 | (3) |
|
Psychology of Perception of Deviations |
|
|
357 | (1) |
|
The Problem of Induction and Causation in the Complex Domain |
|
|
358 | (3) |
|
|
|
359 | (1) |
|
Driving the School Bus Blindfolded |
|
|
359 | (2) |
|
VI The Fourth Quadrant, the Solution to that Most Useful of Problems |
|
|
361 | (6) |
|
|
|
361 | (1) |
|
|
|
362 | (1) |
|
The Fourth Quadrant, a Map |
|
|
363 | (4) |
|
VII What to Do with the Fourth Quadrant |
|
|
367 | (7) |
|
Not Using the Wrong Map: The Notion of Iatrogenics |
|
|
367 | (3) |
|
|
|
368 | (1) |
|
Iatrogenics and The Nihilism Label |
|
|
369 | (1) |
|
Phronetic Rules: What is Wise to do (or not do) in Real Life to Mitigate the Fourth Quadrant if you can't Barbell? |
|
|
370 | (4) |
|
VIII The Ten Principles for a Black-Swan-Robust Society |
|
|
374 | (3) |
|
IX Amor Fatl: How to Become Indestructible |
|
|
377 | |
|
|
|
379 | |
| Notes |
|
381 | (20) |
| Bibliography |
|
401 | (30) |
| Acknowledgments For The First Edition |
|
431 | (6) |
| Index |
|
437 | |
|
Skin In The Game: Hidden Asymmetries In Daily Life |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 | (48) |
|
The Less Obvious Aspects of Skin in the Game |
|
|
4 | (3) |
|
Prologue, Part 1 Antaeus Whacked |
|
|
7 | (9) |
|
|
|
8 | (2) |
|
|
|
10 | (1) |
|
Warlords Are Still Around |
|
|
11 | (1) |
|
|
|
12 | (1) |
|
Systems Learn by Removing |
|
|
13 | (3) |
|
Prologue, Part 2 A Brief Tour of Symmetry |
|
|
16 | (33) |
|
|
|
16 | (6) |
|
|
|
16 | (3) |
|
|
|
19 | (1) |
|
|
|
20 | (2) |
|
|
|
22 | (5) |
|
|
|
22 | (2) |
|
Causal Opacity and Preferences Revealed |
|
|
24 | (3) |
|
Skin in the Game, but Not All the Time |
|
|
27 | (1) |
|
|
|
27 | (6) |
|
How to Beam Light on a Speaker |
|
|
28 | (1) |
|
|
|
29 | (1) |
|
I Am Dumb Without Skin in the Game |
|
|
30 | (1) |
|
Regulations vs. Legal Systems |
|
|
31 | (2) |
|
|
|
33 | (8) |
|
|
|
34 | (2) |
|
A Caveat with Entrepreneurs |
|
|
36 | (1) |
|
|
|
36 | (1) |
|
|
|
37 | (1) |
|
Heroes Were Not Library Rats |
|
|
38 | (1) |
|
Soul in the Game and Some (Not Too Much) Protectionism |
|
|
39 | (1) |
|
|
|
40 | (1) |
|
Prologue, Part 3 The Ribs of the Incerto |
|
|
41 | (1) |
|
|
|
42 | (1) |
|
|
|
43 | (1) |
|
|
|
43 | (2) |
|
|
|
45 | (2) |
|
Appendix: Asymmetries in Life and Things |
|
|
47 | (2) |
|
BOOK 2 A FIRST LOOK AT AGENCY |
|
|
49 | (44) |
|
Chapter 1 Why Each One Should Eat His Own Turtles: Equality in Uncertainty |
|
|
51 | (18) |
|
A Customer Is Born Every Day jr The Price of Corn in Rhodes |
|
|
54 | (3) |
|
Equality in Uncertainty Rav Safra and the Swiss |
|
|
57 | (1) |
|
|
|
58 | (2) |
|
Non Mihi non Tibi, sed Nobis (Neither Mine nor Yours, but Ours) |
|
|
60 | (1) |
|
|
|
61 | (1) |
|
All (Literally) in the Same Boat |
|
|
62 | (1) |
|
|
|
63 | (1) |
|
A Short Visit to the Doctor's Office |
|
|
64 | (2) |
|
|
|
66 | (3) |
|
BOOK 3 THAT GREATEST ASYMMETRY |
|
|
67 | (2) |
|
Chapter 2 The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dominance of the Stubborn Minority |
|
|
69 | (24) |
|
Criminals with Peanut Allergies |
|
|
71 | (4) |
|
|
|
75 | (1) |
|
|
|
76 | (1) |
|
|
|
77 | (2) |
|
|
|
79 | (1) |
|
The One-Way Street of Religions |
|
|
80 | (2) |
|
|
|
82 | (1) |
|
Imposing Virtue on Others |
|
|
83 | (1) |
|
Stability of the Minority Rule, a Probabilistic Argument |
|
|
84 | (1) |
|
|
|
85 | (1) |
|
Irreverence of Markets and Science |
|
|
86 | (1) |
|
Unus sed Leo: Only One but a Lion |
|
|
87 | (1) |
|
|
|
88 | (1) |
|
Appendix to Book 3: A Few More Counterintuitive Things About the Collective |
|
|
89 | (2) |
|
Zero-Intelligence Markets |
|
|
91 | (2) |
|
|
|
93 | (24) |
|
Chapter 3 How to Legally Own Another Person |
|
|
95 | (14) |
|
|
|
96 | (2) |
|
From the Company Man to the Companies Person |
|
|
98 | (2) |
|
Coase's Theory of the Firm |
|
|
100 | (1) |
|
|
|
101 | (1) |
|
A Curious Form of Slave Ownership |
|
|
101 | (1) |
|
|
|
102 | (1) |
|
|
|
103 | (2) |
|
|
|
105 | (1) |
|
Waiting for Constantinople |
|
|
106 | (1) |
|
Do Not Rock Bureaucristan |
|
|
107 | (1) |
|
|
|
108 | (1) |
|
Chapter 4 The Skin of Others in Your Game |
|
|
109 | (8) |
|
|
|
109 | (2) |
|
Finding Hidden Vulnerabilities |
|
|
111 | (2) |
|
How to Put Skin in the Game of Suicide Bombers |
|
|
113 | (2) |
|
|
|
115 | (2) |
|
BOOK 5 BEING ALIVE MEANS TAKING CERTAIN RISKS |
|
|
117 | (36) |
|
Chapter 5 Life in the Simulation Machine |
|
|
119 | (4) |
|
|
|
120 | (1) |
|
|
|
121 | (1) |
|
|
|
121 | (1) |
|
|
|
122 | (1) |
|
|
|
122 | (1) |
|
Chapter 6 The Intellectual Yet Idiot |
|
|
123 | (5) |
|
|
|
123 | (1) |
|
|
|
124 | (1) |
|
Intellectual Yet Philistine |
|
|
125 | (1) |
|
Never Gotten Drunk with Russians |
|
|
126 | (1) |
|
|
|
127 | (1) |
|
|
|
127 | (1) |
|
Chapter 7 Inequality and Skin in the Game |
|
|
128 | (13) |
|
Inequality vs. Inequality |
|
|
128 | (1) |
|
The Static and the Dynamic |
|
|
128 | (5) |
|
Pikketism and the Revolt of the Mandarin Class |
|
|
133 | (2) |
|
|
|
135 | (1) |
|
Inequality, Wealth, and Vertical Socialization |
|
|
136 | (1) |
|
|
|
137 | (1) |
|
|
|
137 | (1) |
|
|
|
138 | (2) |
|
|
|
140 | (1) |
|
Chapter 8 An Expert Called Lindy |
|
|
141 | (12) |
|
Who Is the "Real" Expert? |
|
|
142 | (1) |
|
|
|
143 | (1) |
|
|
|
144 | (1) |
|
|
|
145 | (1) |
|
|
|
146 | (1) |
|
|
|
147 | (1) |
|
|
|
148 | (1) |
|
|
|
148 | (1) |
|
|
|
149 | (1) |
|
The Grandmother vs. the Researchers |
|
|
150 | (1) |
|
A Brief Tour of Your Grandparents' Wisdom |
|
|
151 | (2) |
|
BOOK 6 DEEPER INTO AGENCY |
|
|
153 | (44) |
|
Chapter 9 Surgeons Should Not Look like Surgeons |
|
|
155 | (12) |
|
|
|
155 | (2) |
|
|
|
157 | (1) |
|
Best-Dressed Business Plan |
|
|
158 | (1) |
|
|
|
159 | (1) |
|
|
|
160 | (1) |
|
Overintellectualization of Life |
|
|
161 | (1) |
|
Another Business of Intervention |
|
|
162 | (1) |
|
|
|
162 | (2) |
|
|
|
164 | (1) |
|
|
|
164 | (1) |
|
|
|
165 | (1) |
|
Real Gyms Don't Look Like Gyms |
|
|
165 | (1) |
|
|
|
166 | (1) |
|
Chapter 10 Only the Rich Are Poisoned: The Preferences of Others |
|
|
167 | (5) |
|
|
|
168 | (1) |
|
|
|
169 | (1) |
|
|
|
170 | (1) |
|
|
|
170 | (1) |
|
|
|
171 | (1) |
|
Chapter 11 Facta non Verba (Deeds Before Words) |
|
|
172 | (6) |
|
An Offer Very Hard to Refuse |
|
|
172 | (2) |
|
|
|
174 | (1) |
|
Assassination as Marketing |
|
|
175 | (1) |
|
Assassination as Democracy |
|
|
176 | (1) |
|
The Camera for Skin in the Game |
|
|
176 | (2) |
|
Chapter 12 The Facts Are True, the News Is Fake |
|
|
178 | (5) |
|
How to Disagree with Yourself |
|
|
178 | (1) |
|
Information Doesn't Like to Be Owned |
|
|
179 | (2) |
|
The Ethics of Disagreement |
|
|
181 | (1) |
|
|
|
182 | (1) |
|
Chapter 13 The Merchandising of Virtue |
|
|
183 | (7) |
|
The Public and the Private |
|
|
184 | (1) |
|
|
|
185 | (1) |
|
|
|
186 | (1) |
|
|
|
187 | (1) |
|
Virtue Is About Others and the Collective |
|
|
188 | (1) |
|
|
|
188 | (1) |
|
|
|
189 | (1) |
|
Chapter 14 Peace, Neither Ink nor Blood |
|
|
190 | (7) |
|
|
|
191 | (1) |
|
|
|
192 | (1) |
|
History Seen from the Emergency Room |
|
|
193 | (3) |
|
|
|
196 | (1) |
|
BOOK 7 RELIGION, BELIEF, AND SKIN IN THE GAME |
|
|
197 | (14) |
|
Chapter 15 They Don't Know What They Are Talking About When They Talk About Religion |
|
|
199 | (5) |
|
|
|
201 | (1) |
|
Libertarianism and Church-Free Religions |
|
|
202 | (1) |
|
|
|
203 | (1) |
|
Chapter 16 No Worship Without Skin in the Game |
|
|
204 | (4) |
|
The Gods Do Not Like Cheap Signaling |
|
|
204 | (3) |
|
|
|
207 | (1) |
|
Chapter 17 Is the Pope Atheist? |
|
|
208 | (3) |
|
|
|
210 | (1) |
|
|
|
210 | (1) |
|
BOOK 8 RISK AND RATIONALITY |
|
|
211 | (24) |
|
Chapter 18 How to Be Rational About Rationality |
|
|
213 | (9) |
|
|
|
214 | (1) |
|
|
|
214 | (2) |
|
|
|
216 | (1) |
|
Revelation of Preferences |
|
|
216 | (1) |
|
|
|
217 | (2) |
|
|
|
219 | (1) |
|
|
|
219 | (1) |
|
The Nondecorative in the Decorative |
|
|
220 | (2) |
|
Chapter 19 The Logic of Risk Taking |
|
|
222 | (13) |
|
|
|
225 | (1) |
|
|
|
226 | (2) |
|
|
|
228 | (2) |
|
Courage and Precaution Aren't Opposites |
|
|
230 | (1) |
|
|
|
230 | (1) |
|
|
|
231 | (1) |
|
|
|
231 | (2) |
|
|
|
233 | (2) |
| Epilogue: What Lindy Told Me |
|
235 | (2) |
| Acknowledgments |
|
237 | (2) |
| Glossary |
|
239 | (4) |
| Technical Appendix |
|
243 | (12) |
| Notes |
|
255 | (4) |
| Bibliography |
|
259 | (6) |
| Index |
|
265 | |
