Part of a series, this volume comprises a selection of methodology-oriented papers presented at the 25th International Conference of the Applied Econometrics Association on International Commodity Market Modelling which took place at the World Bank, Washington, 1988. Economic and statistical analyses are obviously of great importance in studying commodity markets. A deep knowledge of market-clearing processes, the institutional structures of the industries related to each commodity market whether on the supply or demand side and the statistical methods of data handling for inference purposes are all needed in order to make good sense of the wealth of information on commodity market data. In addition, a technological understanding of the economic processes underlying each market is necessary. The agronomy of crop production, the techniques of crop distribution from harvest to end-use, the contributions of meteorology, the engineering of metallurgy, the engineering of processing factories, the combating of oil spills, the control of pollution and many other technological aspects of the different markets are essential for a good understanding of the forces at work in each case. Also legal and political factors play roles in the markets and require some specialized knowledge of their effects. Almost every market is different and so a specialized technological background is required, but that adds much substance to the research. By fitting together appropriate cross-disciplinary bodies of information in commodity market studies, a high degree of interest and analytical challenge can be attained.
Part 1 Advances in modelling methology: new horizons in international
commodity market modelling, W.C. Labys et al; computing equilibria in
imperfectly competitive commodity markets, C. Kolstad and L. Mathiesen;
recent developments in spatial (temporal) equilibrium models - non-linearity,
existence and other issues, T. Takayama and T.C. MacAulay; shadow pricing for
natural resource goods and services, using the emergy method, G. Pillet. Part
2 Application of new methodologies to particular commodity markets
(agricultural, mineral, and energy commodities): the effectiveness of the
world coffee agreement - simulation study using a quarterly model of the
world coffee market, F.C. Palm and B. Vogelvang; modelling the world fibre
market, M.E. Thigpen and D.O. Mitchell; technical change, relative prices anf
intermaterial substitution, T.J. Considine; spectral interpretation of stock
adjustment processes in mineral markets, A. Afriasabi, M. Moallem and W.C.
Labys; the linkages between the markets for petroleum products and the market
for crude oil - an economic linear programming study, F.G. Adams, E.A. Kroch
and Z.V. Didziulis; modelling the international natural gas market - the case
of the Western European natural gas market, J. Percebois, J.B. Lesourd and
J.M. Ruiz. Part 3 Application of new methodologies to commodity future
markets: dynamic welfare analysis and commodity futures markets overshooting,
G.C. Rausser and N. Walraven; when does the creation of a futures market
destabilize the spot prices?, P. Artus; the producer and futures markets,
J.P. Daloz; futures prices and hidden stocks of refined oil products, M.N.
Lowry. Part 4 Application of new methodologies to other commodity market
issues: post-recession commodity price formation, M.J. Lord; tradeoffs
between short-run stability and long-run risk when stabilizing a commodity
market, B.L. Dixon and A.J. Hughes Hallett; are commodity prices leading
indicators of OECD prices?, M. Durand and S. Blondal; conclusion, O. Guvenen,
W.C. Labys and J.B. Lesourd.
