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Introduction to Crowd Science [Pehme köide]

(Manchester Metropolitan University, UK)
  • Formaat: Paperback / softback, 300 pages, kõrgus x laius: 234x156 mm, kaal: 560 g
  • Ilmumisaeg: 12-Dec-2019
  • Kirjastus: CRC Press
  • ISBN-10: 0367866706
  • ISBN-13: 9780367866709
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  • Formaat: Paperback / softback, 300 pages, kõrgus x laius: 234x156 mm, kaal: 560 g
  • Ilmumisaeg: 12-Dec-2019
  • Kirjastus: CRC Press
  • ISBN-10: 0367866706
  • ISBN-13: 9780367866709

Includes Case Studies from a Range of Event Sites





Introduction to Crowd Science

examines the growing rate of crowd-related accidents and incidents around the world. Using tools, methods, and worked examples gleaned from over 20 years of experience, this text provides an understanding of crowd safety. It establishes how crowd accidents and incidents (specifically mass fatalities in crowded spaces) can occur. The author explores the underlying causes and implements techniques for crowd risk analysis and crowd safety engineering that can help minimize and even eliminate occurrences altogether.





Understand Overall Crowd Dynamics and Levels of Complex Structure





The book outlines a simple modeling approach to crowd risk analysis and crowds safety in places of public assembly. With consideration for major events, and large-scale urban environments, the material focuses on the practical elements of developing the crowd risk analysis and crowd safety aspects of an event plan. It outlines a range of modeling techniques, including line diagrams that represent crowd flow, calculations of the speed at which a space can fill, and the time it takes for that space to reach critical and crush density. It also determines what to consider during the event planning and approval (licensing/permitting) phases of the event process.





Introduction to Crowd Science

addresses key questions and presents a systematic approach to managing crowd risks in complex sites. It provides an understanding of the complexity of a site, that helps you plan for crowds in public places.

Arvustused

"Really excellent work. It does a good job of taking a very sophisticated topic and making it accessible for an educated reader." Tracy Pearl, Florida International University

Introduction xv
Preface xvii
Acknowledgements xix
Author xxi
1 Introduction
1(26)
Why do the need this?
1(5)
Are simulations the answer?
2(1)
What we know
3(1)
Uses of a crowd simulation
4(1)
Site mapping
4(1)
Workshops
5(1)
Teaching and training
5(1)
Crowd modelling
6(5)
Crowd safety projects
6(1)
Project analysis
7(2)
Simulation problems
9(1)
Explore the risk
9(1)
Understanding crowd risks
10(1)
Research background
11(3)
Risk management
12(1)
Improving crowd safety
12(1)
Safe little world
13(1)
Crowd management
13(1)
Who are the end users of crowd simulation?
14(2)
Realising the problem
14(1)
Safety budget
14(1)
Prices driven down
15(1)
Not the way to go
15(1)
New objective
16(1)
Understanding the problem
16(3)
Safety-critical systems
16(1)
Towards a standard
17(1)
Capturing information
18(1)
Understanding the audience
18(1)
Learning from past experience
19(3)
Event planning
20(1)
Risk assessments
20(1)
Reality hits home
21(1)
The root of the problem
22(3)
Vision and imagination
23(1)
A new approach
24(1)
Simulations were not the way forward
24(1)
Research revisited
25(2)
Cost-effective crowd safety modelling
25(1)
Conclusions
26(1)
2 Crowd risk analysis
27(38)
Introduction
27(3)
Basic planning/approval requirement
30(2)
Missing skills
31(1)
Basics
31(1)
Understanding the basic skills
32(1)
How much space do crowds need?
32(1)
Why is this a problem?
32(1)
Standing and moving space requirements
32(1)
Body space
33(1)
Body ellipse
34(1)
Event guidance
34(4)
Standing crowd density
35(1)
Average area for a person
35(2)
The toss of a coin
37(1)
Defining risks
38(2)
The minimum is not enough
40(4)
Illustration of crowd density
40(1)
Higher-density crowds
41(1)
Freedom of choice
42(1)
Upper limit established
43(1)
Crowd risks
43(1)
Shockwaves
44(1)
Keep the crowd density low
44(3)
Average individuals
45(1)
Guidance: Single values
45(1)
Control density to reduce risks
46(1)
Calculating area: A problem
46(1)
Two types of space
47(1)
A bigger picture
47(11)
Two people per square metre
50(1)
Density perspective illusion
50(1)
Space filling
51(1)
Moving crowds
51(2)
Sounds too simple!
53(1)
Standing and walking profiles: Another string experiment
54(4)
Graphing the results
58(3)
Nothing new
59(1)
Doomed to repeat past mistakes
60(1)
Site design
60(1)
Space utilisation
60(1)
Better references
61(1)
Dangerous crowd simulations
61(1)
Defining `risk' due to density
61(4)
Conventional risk assessment
62(1)
Qualitative and quantitative risk analysis
63(2)
3 Causality
65(22)
Introduction
65(1)
Crowd disasters
66(1)
Notes on incidents
66(1)
Planning, approval, operations
66(5)
Planned events
69(1)
Historical review
70(1)
Patterns of failure
70(1)
Causality
71(4)
Definitions
71(1)
Causation: Comparing scientific and legal definitions
71(1)
Risk and certainty
71(2)
Problems lying in wait
73(1)
Proximate and distal causality
74(1)
Event legislation
75(4)
The Licensing Act 2003
76(1)
Negligence
77(1)
Definitions
77(1)
Defining crowd disaster causality
78(1)
Causes of accidents/incidents
79(1)
Site design: theory
79(2)
Investigating a major incident
80(1)
Probability of harm
81(1)
Crowd forces
81(3)
Reasonably foreseeable
82(1)
Site capacity
82(1)
Entry and exit points
82(1)
Movement pathways
83(1)
Site design: Pinch points
83(1)
Underlying causality
84(3)
Plan for the worse case
85(1)
Overcrowding incidents
85(1)
Throughput incidents
85(1)
Crowd and event modelling
86(1)
4 Crowd science
87(22)
Introduction
87(3)
Not how we would do it!
88(1)
Lessons from the workshops
89(1)
The problem with simulation
90(1)
Why had this happened?
90(1)
Modelling
90(2)
External influences on crowd behaviour
91(1)
Deadly consequences
92(1)
Crowd dynamics and crowd science
92(3)
Simulation danger
94(1)
Nice to look at: But is it real?
94(1)
Caveat emptor
95(3)
Crowd science: The bigger picture
95(1)
Risks and hazards
96(1)
Crowd hazards
96(2)
The purpose of a model
98(1)
Are all crowd simulations bad?
98(3)
After the event!
98(1)
What is a crowd?
99(1)
`One size fits all'
99(1)
Using a crowd simulation
100(1)
Applications of a crowd simulation
101(3)
Simulation versus experience
101(1)
Graphics, not physics
102(1)
Limits to simulations
102(1)
Physics, not graphics
103(1)
Validation
104(2)
Complex simulations
104(1)
When to use a simulation
104(1)
Least possible simulation
105(1)
Understanding human behaviour
105(1)
Getting back to basics
106(1)
Summary
106(3)
5 Crowd and event modelling
109(30)
Introduction
109(1)
The crowd management plan
110(2)
Major project analysis
110(1)
The good, bad and crazy
110(1)
Modelling complex events
110(1)
Who goes first?
111(1)
Modelling for a major project
112(5)
Define the objectives
112(1)
Data collection
113(1)
Analysis
114(1)
Contingency plans/simulations
114(1)
Presentations/approval
115(1)
Design phase
115(1)
Simulations/approval
115(1)
Operations manual
116(1)
Continuous revision process
116(1)
What is an event model?
117(5)
Event characteristics
118(1)
DIM-ICE meta-modelling
118(1)
Phases and influences
119(1)
Why develop a matrix approach?
119(1)
Matrix analysis
120(1)
Flow path analysis
120(1)
List of modelling techniques
121(1)
RAMP analysis
122(1)
Routes
122(5)
Ingress, circulation, egress
123(1)
Creating layers of information
123(2)
Adding layers
125(1)
Inside the event
125(1)
Mapping egress
126(1)
Areas
127(3)
Using the internet
127(1)
Dividing the area into zones
128(1)
Not all the space is used
129(1)
We do not have time for this!
129(1)
`Isn't this easier on a computer?'
129(1)
Distraction-free
130(1)
Tidy up
130(1)
Movement
130(2)
Movement graph
131(1)
Profile
132(4)
Space, time, direction, flow
132(1)
A downward spiral
132(1)
Be aware
133(1)
Simulations and risk analysis
133(1)
DIM-ICE: Setting the standard
134(1)
Modelling events and crowds
134(1)
Objective of model building
135(1)
Why model crowds?
136(1)
RAMP analysis: Summary
136(1)
DIM-ICE: Summary
136(2)
Decision support analysis
138(1)
6 Case studies and examples
139(50)
Introduction
139(1)
Assessing the risk assessment
140(8)
Information theory
142(1)
Information theory and risk assessment
143(1)
HSE guidance for event organisers
143(3)
Accident causality
146(1)
Adequate training
147(1)
Competency
147(1)
Case study examples
148(2)
The model solution
149(1)
Modelling an event
150(1)
A picture speaks a thousand words
150(1)
How to begin
150(2)
Visualising risk
152(1)
RAMP analysis
152(1)
Ingress---capacity---Beijing Olympics Torch Relay
153(4)
Shortest routes
154(1)
Crowd objectives
155(1)
Crowd behaviour
156(1)
Summary
156(1)
Manchester United Victory Parade
157(4)
Parade route
160(1)
Hillsborough (1989)
161(3)
Ingress---circulation---Lincoln Christmas Market
164(1)
Event---site capacity---Leicester Caribbean Carnival
165(5)
Space mapping
166(1)
No comparison
167(3)
Circulation---capacity---The Jamarat Bridge
170(5)
System rules
172(3)
Ingress---egress (shared space)---Love Parade Disaster
175(4)
Calculating crowd flow
176(1)
Ingress/egress
177(1)
Love parade ramp pinch point
178(1)
Egress---congestion---London New Year Event (Fireworks)
179(7)
Crowd crushing
179(1)
1 Set the scene
180(1)
2 Show the problem
181(1)
3 Build a model
181(2)
4 Remove the background
183(1)
5 How does the crowd move in this area?
184(1)
6 Making the area safer
185(1)
Egress---crowd management---Wembley White Horse Bridge
186(1)
Barrier design
186(1)
Summary
187(2)
7 Control room applications
189(40)
Introduction
189(2)
Site check
190(1)
Crowd safety
191(1)
Incident detection
191(3)
Four pillars of crisis management
192(1)
Global problem
193(1)
Subcontracting
193(1)
Control room
194(4)
Recognise the risk
194(1)
Best-laid plans
195(1)
Other side of the table
196(1)
Plan, prepare, prevent
197(1)
Understanding crowd dynamics
198(5)
Planning, approval and operations
198(1)
Entry system
199(3)
Simple systems
202(1)
Modelling ingress systems
202(1)
Queueing
202(1)
Real-time decision support tool
203(2)
Do we really need this?
204(1)
Real-time information
205(2)
Is there a low-cost alternative?
205(1)
Wristbands
206(1)
Crowd counting
207(1)
Mass transit systems
207(4)
London new year events
209(1)
Things we know
210(1)
Estimating density
211(4)
Diversion strategy
211(1)
Uniformity of signage
212(3)
Emergency management
215(3)
Disaster recovery cycle
215(1)
Operational
215(1)
Incident
216(1)
Detection
217(1)
Control
217(1)
Recovery
217(1)
Prevention
218(5)
Engineering
218(1)
Crowd management
218(1)
Information systems
219(1)
Integrated management
219(1)
Video analysis
220(2)
Getting people out and away
222(1)
Paradox of choice
223(2)
Why is this important?
224(1)
Strategic analysis
225(1)
Four solutions
225(2)
Total
225(1)
Directed
226(1)
Phased/partial
226(1)
Stay put
226(1)
Problems with evacuation simulations
227(2)
8 The way forward
229(16)
Introduction
229(1)
Increased awareness
230(1)
Ultimate responsibility
230(5)
Objectives
231(2)
Modelling
233(1)
Competent person
233(1)
Applications
234(1)
Crowd risk is dynamic
235(1)
Event process
235(7)
Expert analysis
238(1)
Could the accident have been avoided?
238(1)
Event planning: Flowchart
238(2)
Level 1: Report and analysis
240(1)
Level 2: Modelling and risk analysis
241(1)
Level 3: Complex analysis, value engineering, site and wide area simulation
241(1)
Information---education---application
242(1)
Why should you listen to us?
243(1)
Final word
244(1)
Appendix A Essential crowd safety mathematics 245(4)
Appendix B The disaster database 249(16)
Appendix C Web resources 265(4)
Appendix D DIM-ICE meta model (summary) 269(6)
Index 275
G. Keith Still lectures at a number of international universities including Manchester Metropolitan University, UK. He has lectured at the UK Cabinet Office Emergency Planning College since 1999 and developed the EPCs Crowd Dynamics and Crowd Science materials and workshops as well as contributing to other safety-related courses. Stills mathematical, human behavior modelling, and simulation tools have led to the development of a systematic blueprint for the crowd safety industry. His tools (Legion, Paramics UAF, Myriad, Shepard, Tawaf, DWELL, progressive crowd collapse and pressure modelling) have been used for the analysis of crowd risks in complex and built spaces for over a decade.