Introduction to Volcanic Hazards Quantification describes the fundamentals of volcanic hazard quantification, which forecasts future potential intensity of volcanic activity. The book closely examines the modeling and forecasting techniques that make up Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA). Sections introduce the fundamentals of modeling for different eruptive and non-eruptive phenomena that characterize volcanic activity, including volcanic ballistics and tephra fallout, volcanic gas dispersal, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows and lava domes, lahar and debris flows, and volcanic tsunamis. This book provides a much-needed reference on volcanic hazard quantification for those working to forecast volcanic activity as well as manage emergency preparedness.
Additional content covers existing statistical tools for forecasting volcanic activity and managing uncertainties, ranging from methods adopted for both short-term forecasts and long-term models. Finally, several case studies are presented, with examples in the area of Naples, which is threatened by three active volcanoes (Mt. Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia), Mt Etna in Sicily, and volcanic islands such as Ischia and Vulcano in the Aeolian Islands.
Part I. Modelling volcanic hazardous phenomena
1. Introduction to physical volcanology and volcanic phenomena
2. Volcanic ballistics and tephra fallout
3. Volcanic gas dispersal
4. Pyroclastic density currents
5. Lava flows and lava domes
6. Lahar and debris flows
7. Volcanic tsunamis
Part II. Quantitative hazard analysis
8. Probabilistic volcanic hazards and risks
9. Observational data in volcanic hazard
10. Long-term volcanic hazard analysis
11. Short-term volcanic hazard
12. Principles of multi-hazard and multi-risk
Part III. Case studies and examples
Long-term volcanic hazards: examples from Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei
Short-term eruption forecasting: examples from Campi Flegrei and Mt. Etna
Multiple hazards at volcanic islands: examples from Ischia and Vulcano
Emergency plans at the Neapolitan volcanoes
Jacopo Selva is Associate Professor at the University of Naples Federico II”, Department of Earth, Environmental, and Resources Sciences, where he is titular of the master courses Volcanic Hazard”, Seismology and Seismic Hazard”, and Statistics in Volcanology”. He was researcher at INGV Bologna (2005-2022), where he was national responsible for the research line Eruption Dynamics and Scenarios” (2014-2017) and member of the steering committee of the tsunami warning centre (2018-2022). He was guest researcher at the University of Ulster (2003) and at the University Aristoteleio of Thessaloniki (2010-2013), and contract professor at the University of Perugia (2020) and the University of Bologna (2021-2023). For his scientific achievements was awarded the EGU Plinius Medal in 2024.
Antonio Costa is Senior Researcher at INGV Bologna, where he was also Director (2019-2022). He is also Adjunct Professor at the University of Bologna. He got the Master degree at the University of Pisa (1998) and the PhD at the University of Bologna (2004). He was Researcher at University of Bristol (2005- 2006), where he was also honorary researcher (2007-2010), while working at the INGV Naples. From 2011 to 2012 he worked at University of Reading, UK. He was a research visitor at the University of Tokyo (2015) and Munich University (2019). For his scientific achievements was awarded the IAVCEI Wager Medalist in 2013 and from 2021 is Member of Academia Europaea.
