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xii | |
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List of illustrative examples |
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xiv | |
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xvii | |
About the author |
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xviii | |
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1 | (6) |
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PART A Foundations of investment analysis |
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7 | (102) |
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2 The valuation of equity shares: the PIE ratio |
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9 | (28) |
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10 | (1) |
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2.2 Investors' expected rate of return and the "discounting of dividends" model of share valuation |
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11 | (3) |
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2.3 A firm with a fixed growth |
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14 | (3) |
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2.4 Interest rates and inflation |
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17 | (3) |
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2.5 A firm with zero (real) growth |
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20 | (1) |
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2.6 Motivation for dividends |
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21 | (2) |
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2.7 Self-sustaining (internally generated) growth |
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23 | (3) |
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26 | (5) |
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2.9 Share price determination in practice |
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31 | (2) |
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2.10 Time for reflection: What has been revealed? |
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33 | (4) |
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3 Shareholders' required rate of return (the cost of equity capital) |
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37 | (16) |
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38 | (1) |
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3.2 The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) |
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39 | (3) |
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3.3 Empirical issues with the CAPM |
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42 | (2) |
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3.4 Empirical tests of the CAPM |
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44 | (3) |
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3.5 Assessment of the CAPM |
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47 | (1) |
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3.6 The Fama and French three-factor (FF-3F) model |
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48 | (2) |
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3.7 Time for reflection: What have we learned? |
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50 | (3) |
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4 Financial leverage: the value of the firm and the economic cycle |
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53 | (24) |
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54 | (1) |
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55 | (2) |
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4.3 Modigliani and Miller's Proposition I |
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57 | (1) |
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4.4 The Modigliani and Miller equations, the CAPM, and the "discounting of dividends" model |
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58 | (7) |
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4.5 Debt and profitability |
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65 | (3) |
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4.6 Debt and corporate tax |
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68 | (1) |
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4.7 Debt and the global financial crisis |
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69 | (3) |
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72 | (1) |
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4.9 The markets and the economy more broadly |
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73 | (1) |
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4.10 Time for reflection: What has been revealed? |
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74 | (3) |
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5 Accounting statements and ratio analysis |
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77 | (32) |
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78 | (2) |
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80 | (9) |
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89 | (10) |
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5.4 Du Pont ratio analysis |
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99 | (3) |
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102 | (2) |
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5.6 Time for reflection: What has been revealed? |
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104 | (5) |
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PART B The nature of investment growth |
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109 | (98) |
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6 The nature of growth (the exponential function) |
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111 | (23) |
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112 | (1) |
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6.2 Percentages as fractions |
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113 | (1) |
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113 | (2) |
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115 | (2) |
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6.5 Continuously compounding growth |
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117 | (3) |
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6.6 Continuously compounding growth rates over many periods |
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120 | (2) |
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6.7 Exponential growth in nature |
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122 | (1) |
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6.8 Graph of e' (optional reading) |
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122 | (2) |
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6.9 Further analysis of the exponential growth factor, e" (optional reading) |
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124 | (2) |
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6.10 Application of logarithms |
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126 | (4) |
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6.11 Time for reflection: What has been revealed? |
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130 | (4) |
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7 Prediction of returns (the normal distribution) |
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134 | (14) |
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135 | (1) |
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7.2 The normal distribution |
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136 | (1) |
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7.3 Mean and variance for a normal distribution |
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136 | (2) |
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7.4 The equation for the normal probability distribution (optional reading) |
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138 | (1) |
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7.5 Tabulation of the unit normal probability distribution |
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139 | (2) |
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7.6 Generalization of the unit normal distribution |
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141 | (4) |
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7.7 Time for reflection: What has been revealed? |
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145 | (3) |
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8 Statistical relations for component assets |
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148 | (22) |
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149 | (1) |
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8.2 Addition of discrete returns |
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150 | (1) |
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8.3 Expected return, variance, and standard deviation |
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151 | (2) |
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8.4 Co-variance (optional reading, but take note of Eqn 8.4) |
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153 | (1) |
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8.5 Variance of portfolio returns (optional reading, but take note of Eqn 8.6) |
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154 | (1) |
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8.6 Portfolios with a risk-free asset (optional reading, but take note of Eqn 8.8) |
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155 | (1) |
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8.7 Portfolio predictions allowing normally distributed outcomes |
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155 | (3) |
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158 | (3) |
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161 | (5) |
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8.10 Time for reflection: What has been revealed? |
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166 | (4) |
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9 Growth over many periods |
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170 | (26) |
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172 | (1) |
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9.2 The normal distribution and asset growth |
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172 | (1) |
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9.3 The central limit theorem |
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173 | (1) |
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9.4 The implications of the central limit theorem for share price growth |
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174 | (1) |
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9.5 The exponential growth rate, R, that delivers the expected wealth outcome |
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175 | (2) |
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9.6 Relation with discrete growth rates |
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177 | (1) |
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9.7 The growth rate, R, over many periods |
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178 | (3) |
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9.8 Stock market outcomes and the investment time horizon: empirical observations and the normal distribution |
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181 | (5) |
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9.9 The binomial representation of normally distributed exponential growth rates |
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186 | (3) |
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9.10 Time for reflection: What has been revealed? |
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189 | (7) |
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10 Growth with many assets |
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196 | (11) |
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197 | (1) |
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10.2 The outcome for many assets |
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198 | (5) |
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10.3 The implication for a portfolio of assets with high volatility returns (small firms) |
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203 | (1) |
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10.4 Time for reflection: What has been revealed? |
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204 | (3) |
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PART C Principles of portfolio construction and management |
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207 | (100) |
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11 Portfolio choice between risky and risk-free assets |
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209 | (18) |
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210 | (1) |
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11.2 Portfolio formation with one risky asset and one risk-free asset |
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211 | (1) |
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11.3 Demonstration of the model |
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212 | (5) |
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11.4 The log-wealth utility function |
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217 | (2) |
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11.5 Utility and the example of Fig. 11.1 |
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219 | (1) |
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11.6 Optimal portfolio selection |
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219 | (1) |
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11.7 Portfolio allocation and expectation of market return |
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220 | (2) |
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11.8 The market risk premium |
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222 | (1) |
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11.9 Market collapse and self-correction |
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223 | (1) |
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11.10 Time for reflection: What was revealed? |
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224 | (3) |
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12 A fundamental model of asset pricing and portfolio allocation |
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227 | (25) |
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229 | (1) |
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12.2 A generalized utility function |
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230 | (2) |
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12.3 Repeated investment periods |
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232 | (1) |
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12.4 Utility and the addition of growth rates |
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233 | (1) |
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12.5 Portfolio optimization |
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234 | (2) |
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236 | (1) |
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237 | (2) |
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12.8 The capital market line and homogenous expectations |
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239 | (3) |
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12.9 A note of caution as to the CML |
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242 | (1) |
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12.10 Stability of the portfolio allocation model (Eqns 12.21 and 22) |
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243 | (1) |
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12.11 Can we retain log-wealth utility? |
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244 | (2) |
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12.12 Generalization of the equations of portfolio choice |
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246 | (1) |
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12.13 Time for reflection: What has been revealed? |
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247 | (5) |
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13 Fluctuations of opinion: stock mispricing |
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252 | (18) |
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253 | (1) |
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254 | (4) |
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13.3 Mispricing and the investment time horizon |
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258 | (2) |
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13.4 Mispricing and implied overpricing |
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260 | (3) |
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13.5 Mispricing and the expectation of stock returns |
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263 | (1) |
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13.6 Mispricing, equal weighting, and portfolio performance |
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264 | (1) |
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13.7 The requirement to rebalance |
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265 | (1) |
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13.8 Mispricing and indexation (Fundamental Indexation) |
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266 | (1) |
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13.9 Time for reflection: What has been revealed? |
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266 | (4) |
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270 | (16) |
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272 | (1) |
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14.2 The single index model |
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272 | (4) |
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14.3 A passive index (benchmark portfolio) in combination with active stock selection: the Treynor--Black model |
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276 | (2) |
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14.4 The active portfolio curtailed by analyst uncertainty |
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278 | (1) |
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14.5 Challenges to active stock selection |
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279 | (1) |
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14.6 Sector analysis and the Black--Litterman model |
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279 | (5) |
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14.7 Time for reflection: What has been revealed? |
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284 | (2) |
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15 Institutional portfolio management |
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286 | (17) |
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287 | (1) |
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15.2 The organization of institutional investment |
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288 | (2) |
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15.3 Index following (passive portfolio management) |
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290 | (1) |
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15.4 Tactical adjustment of funds |
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291 | (2) |
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15.5 Active portfolio management (stock picking) |
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293 | (1) |
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294 | (1) |
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15.7 Herding of portfolio management |
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295 | (1) |
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15.8 Measurement of portfolio performance |
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296 | (2) |
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15.9 The success record of active management |
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298 | (1) |
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299 | (1) |
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15.11 Time for reflection: What has been revealed? |
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300 | (3) |
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16 Conclusion and text review |
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303 | (4) |
Appendix: differentiation, integration, and optimization |
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307 | (11) |
Solutions to Illustrative Examples |
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318 | (37) |
Index |
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355 | |