In today's data-driven world, this book offers clear, accessible guidance on the logical foundations of optimal decision making. It introduces essential tools for decision analysis and explores psychological theories that explain how people make decisions in both professional and personal contexts. Using real-world examples, the book covers topics such as decision making under uncertainty, decision trees, strategies of risk management, decisions that are gambles, heuristics, trade-offs, decision making under stress, game theory, decision making in a dispute or conflict, and multi-attribute decision analysis. Readers will identify common decision traps and learn how to avoid them, understand the causes of indecisiveness and find out how to deal with it, gain insights into their own decision-making processes, and build confidence in their ability to make and defend informed decisions across a range of scenarios.
Arvustused
'In life, we make many decisions every day. Little ones like what dessert to order and big ones like who to marry. How do we do it? In this highly readable book, Harvey Langholtz provides a comprehensive review of what we know about how people make decisions. When do they take risks and when do they play it safe? Readers will learn what science reveals, and perhaps even get better at managing the gambles that life throws our way.' Elizabeth F. Loftus, Distinguished Professor, University of California, Irvine, and Past President of Association of Psychological Science 'In Making Decisions: Analytics, Cognition, and Application, psychologist Harvey Langholtz has done a masterful job of uniting various theories of decision making with a vast body of empirical research on how people actually decide. He covers topics that are almost never brought together in a single book, and explains theories with great clarity and plentiful well-drawn and well-written examples. I taught decision making to undergraduates for 25 years, and were I to teach again, I would use this book in a heartbeat. It sets the standard for what one can aspire to in covering this very important field, whether at the undergraduate or graduate level.' Barry Schwartz, author of The Paradox of Choice and Visiting Professor at the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley
Muu info
This book links logical analysis with cognitive processes to determine optimal decision-making strategies in real-world scenarios.
List of figures; List of tables; Preface; Acknowledgements; Section I.
Analytics: Probability, Evaluation, Decision Trees, and Strategies for
Decision Making;
1. Introduction to decision theory and decision making;
2.
Thinking like a gambler: for all the gambles of life;
3. Using decision trees
to see through the forest ahead;
4. Strategies for decision making in an
environment of risk: how to get the most and avoid the worst, no matter what;
Section II. Cognitive Processes of Decision Making;
5. Heuristics:
assumptions and quick rules of thumb we all use but maybe shouldn't;
6.
Prospect theory: psychological aspects beyond expected value;
7. Two systems:
a descriptive model that explains how people make decisions;
8. Decisions are
made based on our memories, but how reliable are our memories?;
9. Psychology
+ economics = behavioral economics = ways to (gently) influence decisions;
Section III. Applications, Examples, and Selected Topics;
10. Signal
detection theory: how to detect the important signal against the distracting
background and take action;
11. Game theory as applied to real-world
decisions;
12. Decision making under stress: staying ahead of rapidly
changing events and making difficult, time-critical decisions;
13. Decision
making involving disputes, negotiation, and conflict;
14. Multi-attribute
utility decisions: making complex and multidimensional decisions;
15. Common
decision traps and how to avoid them;
16. Overcoming indecisiveness by
understanding what causes it;
17. Looking back and looking ahead: what about
emotion, culture, artificial intelligence, and intuition?; Bibliography;
Index.
Harvey J. Langholtz is a professor in the Department of Psychological Sciences at William and Mary, specializing in decision theory. He was a commander in the US Coast Guard, a member of the US delegation to the United Nations, and the founding director of a nonprofit nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
