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(Mis)behavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin and Reward [Kõva köide]

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  • Formaat: Hardback, 352 pages, kõrgus x laius x paksus: 236x156x25 mm, kaal: 680 g
  • Ilmumisaeg: 03-Aug-2004
  • Kirjastus: Basic Books
  • ISBN-10: 0465043550
  • ISBN-13: 9780465043552
Teised raamatud teemal:
  • Formaat: Hardback, 352 pages, kõrgus x laius x paksus: 236x156x25 mm, kaal: 680 g
  • Ilmumisaeg: 03-Aug-2004
  • Kirjastus: Basic Books
  • ISBN-10: 0465043550
  • ISBN-13: 9780465043552
Teised raamatud teemal:
From the inventor of fractal geometry, a revolutionary new theory that overturns our understanding of how markets work. Benoit B. Mandelbrot, one of the century's most influential mathematicians, is world-famous for making mathematical sense of a fact everybody knows but that geometers from Euclid on down had never assimilated: Clouds are not round, mountains are not cones, coastlines are not smooth. To these classic lines we can now add another example: Markets are not the safe bet your broker may claim. In his first book for a general audience, Mandelbrot, with co-author Richard L. Hudson, shows how the dominant way of thinking about the behavior of markets-a set of mathematical assumptions a century old and still learned by every MBA and financier in the world-simply does not work.As he did for the physical world in his classic , Mandelbrot here uses fractal geometry to propose a new, more accurate way of describing market behavior. The complex gyrations of IBM's stock price and the dollar-euro exchange rate can now be reduced to straightforward formulae that yield a far better model of how risky they are. With his fractal tools, Mandelbrot has gotten to the bottom of how financ
Abstract v
Acknowledgments xiii
Prelude: Introducing a Maverick in Science xv
Benoit Mandelbrot, the `father" of fractals, has made a career of going against the prevailing fashions in science.
Part I. The Old Way
Chapter I Risk, Ruin, and Reward
3(22)
"Modern" financial theory is founded on a few, shaky myths that lead us to underestimate the real risk of financial markets.
Chapter II By the Toss of a Coin or the Flight of an Arrow?
25(18)
How the operations of mere chance can be used to study a financial market.
Chapter III Bachelier and His Legacy
43(16)
The study of financial theory began a century ago with a brilliant but undervalued French mathematician, Louis Bachelier.
Chapter IV The House of Modern Finance
59(20)
How the edifice of modern financial theory-valuing assets, building portfolios and assessing risk-was erected on Bacheiier's work.
Chapter V The Case Against the Modern Theory of Finance
79(32)
Orthodox financial theory is riddled with false assumptions and wrong results. A summary of the evidence against it.
Pictorial Essay: Images of the Abnormal
88(23)
Part II. The New Way
Chapter VI Turbulent Markets: A Preview
111(12)
Financial markets are turbulent-like the wind or the flood. An introduction to the fractal view of finance.
Chapter VII Studies in Roughness: A Fractal Primer
123(24)
How is a stock-price chart like the leaves of a fern? A survey of fractul geometry.
Pictorial Essay: A Fractal Gallery
132(15)
Chapter VIII The Mystery of Cotton
147(26)
The first clue to the fractal view of finance came in a study of cotton by Mandelbrot. An account of his scientific journey.
Chapter IX Long Memory, from the Nile to the Marketplace
173(24)
The second clue to fractal finance came from lifelong study of the Nile River by an English hydrologist, H.E. Hurst.
Chapter X Noah, Joseph, and Market Bubbles
197(10)
The two critical features of financial markets are wild price swings and long-term dependence-the Noah Effect and the Joseph Effect.
Chapter XI The Multifractal Nature of Trading Time
207(18)
In financial markets, time speeds up and slows down-as described in the multifractal model of markets.
Part III. The Way Ahead
Chapter XII Ten Heresies of Finance
225(28)
How do financial markets really work? A list of key insights provided by the fractal view of finance.
Chapter XIII In the Lab
253(24)
So how can the study of fractals change finance? A program for future research.
Notes 277(26)
Bibliography 303(15)
Index 318