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Modelling and Forecasting in Dry Bulk Shipping [Kõva köide]

(Shanghai Maritime University), (Universiteit Antwerpen, Belgium), (Universiteit Antwerpen, Belgium), (Universiteit Antwerpen, Belgium)
  • Formaat: Hardback, 416 pages, kõrgus x laius: 234x156 mm, kaal: 798 g, 163 Tables, black and white
  • Sari: The Grammenos Library
  • Ilmumisaeg: 28-Apr-2014
  • Kirjastus: Focal Press
  • ISBN-10: 0415719836
  • ISBN-13: 9780415719834
Teised raamatud teemal:
Modelling and Forecasting in Dry Bulk ShippingSuurem pilt
  • Formaat: Hardback, 416 pages, kõrgus x laius: 234x156 mm, kaal: 798 g, 163 Tables, black and white
  • Sari: The Grammenos Library
  • Ilmumisaeg: 28-Apr-2014
  • Kirjastus: Focal Press
  • ISBN-10: 0415719836
  • ISBN-13: 9780415719834
Teised raamatud teemal:
Püsilink: https://www.kriso.ee/db/9780415719834.html
Märksõnad:

This book models price behaviour and forecasts prices in the dry bulk shipping market, a major component of the world shipping industry.

Recent uncertainties in the world economy, shipbuilding developments and fleet changes mean the dry bulk shipping market has become extremely volatile, highly speculative and more sensitive to external shocks. In response to these challenging circumstances, this book models price behaviour and forecasts prices in various markets including the freight market, the new build ship market and the second-hand ship market. The authors have carried out an extensive investigation of dry bulk shipping over a 60-year period in diverse sub-markets, trading routes, market conditions and dry bulk vessels.

The authors also propose a framework for analysing and modelling the economic processes of numerous variables in the dry bulk shipping market, making use of modern econometric techniques and other economic approaches. This will be especially useful for the control and assessment of risk for ship owners and charterers in ship operation, ship chartering and ship trading activities.

This book will be extremely useful for shipbuilders, owners and charterers, as well as shipping analysts and policymakers. It will also be of great interest to academics and researchers concerned with the economics of the shipping industry.

List of figures ix
List of tables xiii
List of acronyms xix
Preface xxi
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Definitions of dry bulk shipping
1(5)
1.1.1 Dry bulk cargoes and vessels
1(2)
1.1.2 Dry bulk markets
3(3)
1.2 Scope, objectives and data issues
6(5)
1.2.1 Scope
6(2)
1.2.2 Objectives
8(1)
1.2.3 Data-related issues
9(2)
1.3 Research findings
11(8)
Chapter 2 A Review Of Dry Bulk Shipping Development
2.1 Economic development
19(15)
2.1.1 A retrospective of development in the dry bulk market since 1950
19(10)
2.1.2 Learning from the past
29(5)
2.2 Technical innovations
34(25)
2.2.1 Economic triggers for technical innovations
35(3)
2.2.2 Changes in speed and impact on economic performance
38(7)
2.2.3 Changes in deadweight and impact on economic performance
45(3)
2.2.4 Changes in lightweight and impact on economic performance
48(3)
2.2.5 Changes in fuel consumption and impact on economic performance
51(8)
Chapter 3 A Survey Of Econometric Modelling In The Dry Bulk Shipping Industry
3.1 The freight market
59(12)
3.1.1 Efficient market hypothesis
59(3)
3.1.2 Investigating risk premium
62(1)
3.1.3 Pricing the freight market
63(2)
3.1.4 Seasonality of spot and timecharter freight rates
65(1)
3.1.5 Interrelationships between sub-freight sectors
66(1)
3.1.6 Time-varying volatility of charter rates
67(2)
3.1.7 Conclusions and questions
69(2)
3.2 The ship market
71(8)
3.2.1 Efficient market hypothesis
71(1)
3.2.2 Ship prices model
72(3)
3.2.3 Ordering and deliveries
75(1)
3.2.4 Conclusions and questions
76(3)
3.3 The freight derivatives market
79(13)
3.3.1 Unbiasedness hypothesis of the freight forward market
79(2)
3.3.2 Investigating the hedging efficiency of the FFA market
81(1)
3.3.3 The effect of FFA trading on spot price volatility
82(2)
3.3.4 The lead-lag relationship between forward and spot markets in terms of returns and volatilities
84(3)
3.3.5 Forecasting spot and FFA prices
87(1)
3.3.6 Conclusions and questions
88(4)
Chapter 4 Modelling Price Behaviour In The Freight Market
4.1 Time-varying volatilities of rates in spot and period markets
92(13)
4.1.1 Methodology
93(2)
4.1.2 Description of data and statistical properties
95(4)
4.1.3 Empirical results of dynamic volatility for three types of vessel
99(6)
4.2 Term structure and risk premium
105(26)
4.2.1 The term structure relation
106(6)
4.2.2 Description of data and statistical properties
112(4)
4.2.3 Empirical results
116(15)
4.3 Dynamic interrelationship between sub-freight shipping sectors
131(37)
4.3.1 Methodology
132(2)
4.3.2 Data description and statistical properties
134(5)
4.3.3 Dynamic relationships between Capesize and Panamax submarkets
139(22)
4.3.4 Dynamic relationships between Panamax and Handymax submarkets
161(7)
4.4 Dynamic relationships between spot freight and forward markets
168(37)
4.4.1 The unbiasedness hypothesis of freight forward prices in the dry bulk market
169(24)
4.4.2 The lead-lag relationship between forward prices and spot prices
193(12)
4.5 Forecasts 4
205(46)
4.5.1 Forecasting monthly spot rates on each route in each market
206(36)
4.5.2 The forecasting performance of FFA prices
242(9)
4.6 Conclusions
251(10)
Chapter 5 Modelling Price Behaviour In The Newbuilding Ship Market
5.1 Volatilities of ship prices in the newbuilding ship market
261(3)
5.1.1 Methodology
261(1)
5.1.2 Description of data and statistical properties
261(3)
5.1.3 Empirical results
264(1)
5.2 An empirical analysis of relationships between newbuilding prices and charter rates
264(19)
5.2.1 Methodology
266(1)
5.2.2 Data description
266(3)
5.2.3 Empirical analysis
269(14)
5.3 Relationships between prices in newbuilding, second-hand, scrap and freight markets
283(15)
5.3.1 Description of data and statistical properties
290(3)
5.3.2 Empirical results
293(5)
5.4 Forecasts
298(10)
5.5 Simulation based optimization of ship design for newbuilding vessels
308(18)
5.5.1 The optimization model descriptions
309(8)
5.5.2 Empirical analysis
317(9)
5.6 Conclusions
326(4)
Chapter 6 Modelling Price Behaviour In The Second-Hand Ship Market
6.1 Time-varying volatilities of ship prices in the second-hand ship market
330(7)
6.1.1 Methodology
330(1)
6.1.2 Description of data and statistical properties
330(3)
6.1.3 Empirical results
333(4)
6.2 An empirical analysis of relationships between second-hand ship prices and timecharter rates
337(15)
6.2.1 Methodology
337(1)
6.2.2 Description of data and statistical properties
338(2)
6.2.3 Empirical analysis
340(12)
6.3 Relationships between prices in second-hand, newbuilding, scrap and freight markets
352(8)
6.4 Forecasts
360(1)
6.5 Conclusions
361(9)
Chapter 7 Conclusions
7.1 Limitations and further research
370(3)
7.1.1 Technical innovations beyond dry bulk ships and their impacts on the economic performance of vessels
370(1)
7.1.2 Making use of the Markov Regime Switching model to examine the dynamic variances of prices and risk premium in the freight market
371(1)
7.1.3 Investigating the investment timing of trading ships depending on trading rules and forecasts of time series models
371(1)
7.1.4 The optimization approach of ship designs applicable to other types of vessel under different logistic situations
371(1)
7.1.5 Doing more in terms of forecast evaluation
371(2)
Appendix A: Methodology 373(26)
Appendix B: Route descriptions of Baltic Panamax Index before October 2002 399(2)
Appendix C: Wald test statistic on restrictions 401(1)
Bibliography 402(9)
Index 411
Shun Chen is a doctor in Applied Economics and now works at Shanghai Maritime University. Her research interests are on the economic and econometric modeling and forecasting in the shipping market. Her research work was published by Maritime Policy & Management and Maritime Economics & Logistics.









Hilde Meersman  is a Professor at the University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics. Her activities are situated in Economics, Transport Modelling and Econometrics. She is also a visiting professor at several international universities.









Eddy Van de Voorde is a Professor at the University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics. His activities are situated in Maritime Economics, Port Economics, Air Transport and Logistics. He is also a visiting professor at several international universities.









Koos Frouws an assistant Professor at the University of Delft , faculty Ship Design Production & Operations. He is active in ship design, evaluating ship designs, shipping management, simulation and transport modelling of logistic chains.