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Numerical Modelling of Ice Floods in the Ning-Meng Reach of the Yellow River Basin [Pehme köide]

  • Formaat: Paperback / softback, 190 pages, kõrgus x laius: 246x174 mm, kaal: 350 g
  • Sari: IHE Delft PhD Thesis Series
  • Ilmumisaeg: 23-Jan-2018
  • Kirjastus: CRC Press
  • ISBN-10: 1138487015
  • ISBN-13: 9781138487017
Teised raamatud teemal:
Numerical Modelling of Ice Floods in the Ning-Meng Reach of the Yellow River BasinSuurem pilt
  • Formaat: Paperback / softback, 190 pages, kõrgus x laius: 246x174 mm, kaal: 350 g
  • Sari: IHE Delft PhD Thesis Series
  • Ilmumisaeg: 23-Jan-2018
  • Kirjastus: CRC Press
  • ISBN-10: 1138487015
  • ISBN-13: 9781138487017
Teised raamatud teemal:
Püsilink: https://www.kriso.ee/db/9781138487017.html
Märksõnad:

The Ning-Meng reach of the Yellow River basin is located in the Inner Mongolia region at the Northern part of the Yellow River. Due to the special geographical conditions, the river flow direction is towards the North causing the Ning-Meng reach to freeze up every year in wintertime. Both during the freeze-up and break-up period, unfavourable conditions occur which may cause ice jamming and ice dam formation leading to dike breaching and overtopping of the embankment. Throughout history this has often led to considerable casualties and property loss. Enhanced economic development and human activities in the region have altered the characteristics of the ice regime in recent decades, leading to several ice disasters during freezing or breaking-up periods. The integrated water resources management plan developed by the Yellow River Conservancy Commission (YRCC) outlines the requirements for water regulation in the upper Yellow River during ice flood periods. YRCC is developing measures that not only safeguard against ice floods, but also assure the availability of adequate water resources. These provide the overall requirements for developing an ice regime forecasting system including lead-time prediction and required accuracy. In order to develop such a system, numerical modelling of ice floods is an essential component of current research at the YRCC, together with field observations and laboratory experiments. In order to properly model river ice processes it is necessary to adjust the hydrodynamic equations to account for thermodynamic effects. In this research, hydrological and meteorological data from 1950 to 2010 were used to analyse the characteristics of ice regimes in the past. Also, additional field observations were carried out for ice flood model calibration and validation. By combining meteorological forecasting models with statistical models, a medium to short range air temperature forecasting model for the Ning-Meng reach was established. These results were used to improve ice formation modelling and prolong lead-time prediction. The numerical ice flood model developed in this thesis for the Ning-Meng reach allows better forecasting of the ice regime and improved decision support for upstream reservoir regulation and taking appropriate measures for disaster risk reduction.

Summary i
Summary (English) i
Same nvatting (Netherlands) iii
(Chinese) v
Contents vii
Chapter 1 Introduction
1(10)
1.1 Background
1(4)
1.2 Problem statement
5(2)
1.3 Objectives and research questions
7(2)
1.3.1 Objectives
7(1)
1.3.2 Research questions
8(1)
1.4 Thesis Outline
9(2)
Chapter 2 Ice Flood Processes and Models
11(32)
2.1 River ice flood processes
13(4)
2.1.1 Ice flood classification and definition
13(1)
2.1.2 Ice flood formation mechanism
14(3)
2.2 River ice research
17(6)
2.2.1 Freeze-up period
18(1)
2.2.2 Ice-cover period
19(3)
2.2.3 Breakup period
22(1)
2.3 Ice modelling
23(16)
2.3.1 Ice model classification
24(3)
2.3.2 Ice model developments and limitations
27(12)
2.4 Critical assessment of existing ice flood models
39(4)
Chapter 3 Field Campaign and Data Analysis
43(34)
3.1 Study area
43(3)
3.2 Data availability
46(2)
3.3 Field campaign
48(3)
3.4 Data analysis of longer term trends
51(22)
3.4.1 Moment of river ice run and freeze-up and breakup
51(2)
3.4.2 Stable freeze-up duration
53(1)
3.4.3 Water temperature
54(2)
3.4.4 Ice cover thickness
56(1)
3.4.5 Channel water storage
57(2)
3.4.6 Water level
59(1)
3.4.7 Ice flood peak and volume
60(1)
3.4.8 Ice regime influence factors
61(12)
3.5 Summary
73(4)
Chapter 4 Numerical Ice Flood Modelling
77(50)
4.1 Model structure
77(3)
4.2 Air temperature forecast model
80(4)
4.2.1 Data sources
80(1)
4.2.2 Stepwise regression method
81(1)
4.2.3 Forecasting factor selection
81(1)
4.2.4 Validation of air temperature forecasting model
82(2)
4.3 Numerical ice flood modelling
84(12)
4.3.1 Mathematical representation
84(3)
4.3.2 Changes in mathematical representation
87(5)
4.3.3 Program design and real time calibration
92(1)
4.3.4 Framework of two-dimensional ice flood modelling
93(3)
4.4 Parameters determination
96(4)
4.4.1 Ice cover roughness
96(2)
4.4.2 Ice heat exchange
98(2)
4.4.3 Water temperature
100(1)
4.4.4 River freeze-up and breakup criteria
100(1)
4.5 Test case
100(10)
4.6 Verification
110(13)
4.6.1 Water temperature
111(1)
4.6.2 Ice run concentration
112(2)
4.6.3 Ice cover thickness
114(2)
4.6.4 River freeze-up and breakup date
116(1)
4.6.5 Discharge
117(2)
4.6.6 Water level
119(1)
4.6.7 Channel water storage
120(3)
4.7 Analysis and discussion
123(4)
Chapter 5 Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis
127(16)
5.1 Sensitivity analysis
127(8)
5.2 Uncertainty analysis
135(6)
5.3 Implications for ice flood control decision support system
141(2)
Chapter 6 Conclusions and Recommendations
143(6)
6.1 Conclusions
143(4)
6.2 Recommendations
147(2)
References 149(8)
Photos 157(8)
Appendix A 165(4)
Acknowledgements 169(2)
About the author 171
Wang Chunqing was born in 1972 in the historic city Kaifeng of Henan Province, China. He obtained his bachelors degree in Department of Atmospheric Science of Nanjing University from 1990-1994. After graduation, he has worked at the Hydrology Bureau of the Yellow River Conservancy Commission, part of the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR), and has been engaged in the meteorological information processing and weather forecast of the Yellow River basin. From 2001-2003, he took part in the Water Scarcity Training Group sponsored by MWR and the Dutch government, and obtained MSc degree of Hydroinformatics (HI) at UNESCO-IHE. In 2009, he started the (partly time) PhD study at UNESCO-IHE with a main focus on the ice regime and ice flood modeling for the Ning-Meng reach of the Yellow River. Chunqing is currently director of the Hydrological and Water Resources Information Center of Hydrology Bureau, chiefly responsible for meteorological forecasting, water resources and ice flood forecasting, and network management of the Hydrology Bureau.