Michael F. Joseph's The Origins of Great Power Rivalries advances a comprehensive rationalist theory of how great powers assess emerging threats; why enduring great power rivalries unfold through either delayed competition, or delayed peace; and how diplomacy functions when rising powers emerge on the scene. In an important departure from traditional realist theory, Joseph argues that countries are motivated by distinct principles - normative values that shape foreign policy beyond simple security concerns. Exploring instances of great power competition, he explains why rational states draw qualitative inferences about rivals' intentions by examining the historical context of their demands, not just military capabilities. Offering an analysis of great power rivalries since 1850, Joseph illuminates British reactions to Stalin at the beginning of the Cold War, among other rivalries. He animates a theoretically sophisticated defense of America's approach to China in the post-Cold War era with 100s of Washington-insider interviews.
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Offers a general rationalist theory for the evolution of great power rivalries, illuminating historical cases and Sino-American relations.
1. Introduction;
2. The strategic problem at the origins of great power
rivalries;
3. My innovation: enriching how we understand state-motives;
4.
How principled motives and qualitative signals resolve the strategic tension
at the origins of great power rivalries;
5. Inside the analyst's mind:
experimental war game simulation with US national security elites;
6.
Anglo-Russian relations and the origins of cold war;
7. Explaining the
origins of great power rivalries since 1850: a medium-n analysis;
8.
Evaluating the US' China policy and intelligence (19902020);
9. Conclusion.
Michael F. Joseph is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of California, San Diego. He harnesses a decade of foreign policy experience working across five countries and two conflict zones and sophisticated research skills to shed light on modern national security problems. His research was recognized with the 2021 Formal Theory Section Award from the American Political Science Association, the 2023 Palmer Prize from the Peace Science Society, and a $450,000 National Science Foundation Grant for National Security Preparedness, among other accolades. Policy insights from this research have attracted policy-maker attention in DC, and appear in the Washington Post, War on the Rocks, and other leading outlets.
