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List of Figures, Maps, and Tables |
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xi | |
Preface |
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xvii | |
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1 | (12) |
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2 | (3) |
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3 | (1) |
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The Politics of Projecting the Future |
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3 | (2) |
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The Promise of Scenario Planning |
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5 | (1) |
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5 | (3) |
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6 | (1) |
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7 | (1) |
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8 | (5) |
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Simple and Complex Models and Methods |
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9 | (1) |
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Beyond Planning Support Systems |
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10 | (3) |
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13 | (22) |
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13 | (2) |
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13 | (1) |
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13 | (2) |
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Population and Housing Information |
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15 | (2) |
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Employment and Occupation Information |
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17 | (2) |
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19 | (3) |
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22 | (5) |
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23 | (1) |
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23 | (2) |
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Racial and Ethnic Composition |
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25 | (1) |
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25 | (2) |
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27 | (4) |
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31 | (2) |
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33 | (2) |
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3 Trend Projection Methods |
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35 | (26) |
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35 | (5) |
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Estimates, Projections, and Forecasts |
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35 | (1) |
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36 | (3) |
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Trend and Share Projection Methods |
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39 | (1) |
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40 | (8) |
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40 | (1) |
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Identifying the Best Fitting Trend Curve |
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41 | (1) |
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42 | (3) |
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45 | (2) |
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47 | (1) |
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48 | (13) |
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Plotting the Observed Data |
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48 | (3) |
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Plotting the Projected Values |
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51 | (1) |
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51 | (1) |
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52 | (2) |
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Evaluating Goodness of Fit Statistics |
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54 | (3) |
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Evaluating the DeKalb County and Decatur Trend Projections |
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57 | (4) |
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4 Share Projection Methods |
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61 | (18) |
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Share Projections for One Area |
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61 | (5) |
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61 | (1) |
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62 | (1) |
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63 | (2) |
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65 | (1) |
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Comparing the Decatur Share Projections |
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65 | (1) |
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Share Projections for Multiple Areas |
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66 | (10) |
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66 | (2) |
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68 | (2) |
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70 | (2) |
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Adjusted-Share-of-Change Method |
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72 | (3) |
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Comparing the Decatur Block Group Share Projections |
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75 | (1) |
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Evaluating the Share Projection Methods |
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76 | (3) |
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5 Cohort-Component Methods |
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79 | (46) |
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79 | (4) |
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79 | (2) |
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81 | (1) |
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81 | (2) |
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83 | (1) |
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84 | (6) |
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Projecting the Female Population |
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84 | (2) |
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Projecting the Male Population |
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86 | (3) |
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Evaluating the Hamilton-Perry Method |
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89 | (1) |
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90 | (5) |
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91 | (2) |
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Computing One-Year Life Table Survival Rates |
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93 | (1) |
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Computing Multiple-Year Life Table Survival Rates |
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94 | (1) |
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95 | (2) |
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Computing Age-Specific Fertility Rates |
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95 | (2) |
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97 | (9) |
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Residual Net Migration Estimation Methods |
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98 | (7) |
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105 | (1) |
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DeKalb County Cohort-Component Projections |
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106 | (11) |
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Projecting with Constant Rates |
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106 | (5) |
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Projecting Survival and Fertility Rates |
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111 | (3) |
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Projecting Net Migration Rates |
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114 | (3) |
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Evaluating the DeKalb County Cohort-Component Projections |
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117 | (8) |
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Evaluating the Projected Population Trends |
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119 | (1) |
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Evaluating the Projected Population Change by Age and Sex |
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120 | (1) |
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Evaluating the Components of Population Change |
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120 | (5) |
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6 Economic Analysis Methods |
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125 | (40) |
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125 | (4) |
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Establishments, Firms, Sectors, and Industries |
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125 | (1) |
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North American Industrial Classification System |
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126 | (1) |
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Estimating Missing Values |
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126 | (3) |
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129 | (5) |
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Selecting an Appropriate Geographic Scale |
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130 | (1) |
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Selecting an Analysis Period |
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130 | (1) |
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131 | (2) |
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133 | (1) |
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Analyzing Decatur's Local Economy |
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134 | (17) |
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Decatur's Aggregate Economy |
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134 | (1) |
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Decatur's Industry Composition |
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135 | (2) |
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Decatur's Industrial Specialization |
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137 | (1) |
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138 | (6) |
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144 | (2) |
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146 | (5) |
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Projecting Decatur's Economic Future |
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151 | (11) |
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Trend Employment Projections |
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151 | (1) |
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Constant-Share Employment Projections |
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152 | (2) |
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Shift-Share Employment Projections |
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154 | (2) |
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Share-of-Change Employment Projections |
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156 | (1) |
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Share-Trend Employment Projections |
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157 | (1) |
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Adjusted-Share Employment Projections |
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158 | (1) |
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Evaluating the Decatur Employment Projections |
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159 | (3) |
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Using Economic Projection Methods |
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162 | (3) |
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Using Ready-Made Projections |
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162 | (1) |
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162 | (1) |
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Economic Analysis and Other Planning Information |
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163 | (1) |
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Economic Futures and Scenario Planning |
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163 | (2) |
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7 Spatial Analysis Methods |
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165 | (32) |
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165 | (3) |
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Geographic Information Systems |
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165 | (1) |
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Maps, Layers, and Features |
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165 | (1) |
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166 | (1) |
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166 | (1) |
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Map Accuracy and Metadata |
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167 | (1) |
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168 | (1) |
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Locating Spatial Features |
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168 | (2) |
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168 | (1) |
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Linear Referencing Systems |
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168 | (1) |
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169 | (1) |
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Geographic Coordinate Systems |
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169 | (1) |
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Projected Coordinate Systems |
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169 | (1) |
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Vector and Raster Data Models |
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170 | (1) |
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170 | (1) |
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171 | (1) |
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171 | (9) |
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Quantities, Categories, Ratios, and Ranks |
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171 | (4) |
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175 | (5) |
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Choosing a Classification Scheme |
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180 | (1) |
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180 | (6) |
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180 | (1) |
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Types of Attribute Tables |
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181 | (1) |
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Attribute Measurement Scales |
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182 | (1) |
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183 | (1) |
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183 | (3) |
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Analyzing and Representing Spatial Relationships |
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186 | (2) |
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186 | (1) |
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187 | (1) |
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Spatial Analysis Operations |
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188 | (9) |
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188 | (1) |
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189 | (1) |
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189 | (2) |
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191 | (1) |
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192 | (1) |
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192 | (5) |
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8 Land Suitability Analysis Methods |
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197 | (40) |
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197 | (1) |
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198 | (8) |
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Binary Selection Analysis of Decatur Flood Risks |
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203 | (3) |
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Ordinal Combination Method |
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206 | (4) |
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Weighted Combination Method |
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210 | (4) |
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Limitations of the Ordinal and Weighted Combination Methods |
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212 | (2) |
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Ordinal and Weighted Combination Analyses of DeKalb County Vacant Parcels |
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214 | (18) |
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DeKalb County's Vacant Parcels |
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214 | (1) |
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215 | (1) |
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Ordinal Combination Analysis |
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216 | (7) |
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Weighted Combination Analysis |
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223 | (9) |
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Computing Standardized Suitability Scores |
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232 | (1) |
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Other Land Suitability Analysis Methods |
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233 | (1) |
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233 | (1) |
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234 | (1) |
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Opportunities for Public Involvement |
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234 | (3) |
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9 Using Planning Support Methods |
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237 | (24) |
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237 | (8) |
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Types of Graphs and Charts |
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237 | (3) |
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240 | (3) |
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Use Simple Graphs and Charts |
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243 | (2) |
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245 | (5) |
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245 | (1) |
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Displaying Analysis Information |
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245 | (3) |
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Displaying Analysis Results |
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248 | (2) |
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Use Appropriate Map Options |
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250 | (1) |
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250 | (2) |
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Compare to Projections by Other Organizations |
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252 | (1) |
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Combine Different Information |
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252 | (5) |
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Combining Trend and Cohort Component Projection Information |
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253 | (1) |
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Combining Trend with Share Projection Information |
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253 | (1) |
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Combining Population Projections with Housing Information |
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254 | (1) |
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Combining Projections with Land Suitability Information |
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255 | (2) |
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Support Other Applications |
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257 | (2) |
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257 | (1) |
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Allocating Growth to Small Areas |
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258 | (1) |
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259 | (2) |
Appendix A US Census Geography |
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261 | (4) |
Appendix B American Community Survey |
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265 | (6) |
Appendix C US Data Sources |
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271 | (6) |
Glossary |
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277 | (14) |
References |
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291 | (6) |
Index |
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297 | |