Preface |
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vii | |
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PART I The Conceptual Basis for Fitting Statistical Models |
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3 | (6) |
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1.1 The purpose of statistics |
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3 | (1) |
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1.2 Statistics in a schizophrenic state? |
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4 | (1) |
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1.3 How is this book organized? |
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4 | (2) |
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6 | (3) |
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7 | (2) |
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2 Statistical Modeling: A short historical background |
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9 | (10) |
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2.1 What is a statistical model? |
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9 | (1) |
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2.2 What is this thing called probability? |
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10 | (3) |
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2.3 Linking probability with statistics |
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13 | (2) |
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2.4 The early Bayesian demise during the 1930s |
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15 | (4) |
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17 | (2) |
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3 Estimating Parameters: The main purpose of statistical inference |
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19 | (40) |
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19 | (1) |
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3.2 Least squares: A theory of errors and the normal distribution |
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20 | (1) |
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20 | (9) |
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20 | (2) |
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3.3.2 Obtaining maximum likelihood estimates |
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22 | (5) |
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3.3.3 Using maximum likelihood estimates in statistical inference |
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27 | (2) |
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3.4 Bayesian parameter estimation: The basics |
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29 | (7) |
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3.5 Bayesian methods: Markov chain Monte Carlo to the rescue |
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36 | (9) |
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3.6 Quality control for the algorithms of Bayesian methods |
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45 | (1) |
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3.7 More general MCMC variations: Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs algorithms |
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46 | (2) |
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3.8 Recent advances in Bayesian methods: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo |
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48 | (2) |
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3.9 Bayesian hypothesis tests |
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50 | (1) |
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3.10 Summary of the main differences between maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods |
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51 | (8) |
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54 | (5) |
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PART II Applying the Generalized Linear Model to Varied Data Types |
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4 The General Linear Model I: Numerical explanatory variables |
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59 | (42) |
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59 | (1) |
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4.2 The lognormal distribution and its relation to the general linear model |
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60 | (1) |
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4.3 Simple linear regression: One continuous explanatory variable |
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61 | (3) |
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4.4 Simple linear regression: Frequentist fitting |
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64 | (2) |
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4.5 Tools for model validation in frequentist statistics |
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66 | (3) |
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4.6 Simple linear regression: Bayesian fitting |
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69 | (9) |
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4.7 Tools for model validation in Bayesian statistics |
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78 | (2) |
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4.8 Multiple linear regression: More than one numerical explanatory variable |
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80 | (4) |
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4.9 Multiple linear regression: Frequentist fitting |
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84 | (2) |
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4.10 The importance of standardizing explanatory variables |
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86 | (4) |
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4.11 Polynomial regression |
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90 | (1) |
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4.12 Multiple linear regression: Bayesian fitting |
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91 | (7) |
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98 | (3) |
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98 | (3) |
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5 The General Linear Model II: Categorical explanatory variables |
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101 | (38) |
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101 | (1) |
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5.2 Student's t test: One categorical explanatory variable with two groups |
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101 | (5) |
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5.3 The t-test: Frequentist fitting |
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106 | (4) |
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5.4 The t-test: Bayesian fitting |
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110 | (5) |
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5.5 Viewing one-way analysis of variance as a multiple regression |
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115 | (5) |
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5.6 One-way analysis of variance: Frequentist fitting |
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120 | (4) |
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5.7 One-way analysis of variance: Bayesian fitting |
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124 | (6) |
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5.8 A posteriori tests in frequentist models |
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130 | (4) |
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5.9 A posteriori tests in Bayesian models? |
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134 | (2) |
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136 | (3) |
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137 | (2) |
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6 The General Linear Model III: Interactions between explanatory variables |
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139 | (30) |
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139 | (1) |
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6.2 Factorial analysis of variance |
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139 | (6) |
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6.3 Factorial analysis of variance: Frequentist fitting |
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145 | (4) |
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6.4 Factorial analysis of variance: Bayesian fitting |
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149 | (7) |
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6.5 Analysis of covariance: Mixing continuous and categorical explanatory variables |
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156 | (2) |
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6.6 Analysis of covariance: Frequentist fitting |
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158 | (4) |
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6.7 Analysis of covariance: Bayesian fitting |
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162 | (6) |
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168 | (1) |
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168 | (1) |
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7 Model Selection: One, two, and more models fitted to the data |
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169 | (20) |
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169 | (1) |
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7.2 The problem of model selection: Parsimony in statistics |
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170 | (2) |
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7.3 Model selection criteria in the frequentist framework: AIC |
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172 | (4) |
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7.4 Model selection criteria in the Bayesian framework: DIC and WAIC |
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176 | (2) |
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7.5 The posterior predictive distribution and posterior predictive checks |
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178 | (4) |
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7.6 Now back to the WAIC and LOO-CV |
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182 | (3) |
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7.7 Prior predictive distributions: A relatively "new" kid on the block |
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185 | (4) |
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186 | (3) |
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8 The Generalized Linear Model |
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189 | (12) |
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189 | (1) |
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8.2 What are GLMs made of? |
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189 | (4) |
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193 | (1) |
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8.4 Goodness of fit in GLMs |
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194 | (4) |
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8.5 Statistical significance of GLM |
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198 | (3) |
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198 | (3) |
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9 When the Response Variable is Binary |
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201 | (34) |
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201 | (1) |
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9.2 Key concepts for binary GLMs: Odds, log odds, and additional link functions |
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202 | (1) |
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203 | (4) |
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9.4 Ungrouped binary GLM: Frequentist fitting |
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207 | (6) |
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9.5 Further issues about validating binary GLMs |
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213 | (3) |
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9.6 Ungrouped binary GLMs: Bayesian fitting |
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216 | (11) |
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227 | (6) |
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233 | (2) |
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233 | (2) |
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10 When the Response Variable is a Count, Often with Many Zeros |
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235 | (36) |
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235 | (2) |
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10.2 Over-dispersion: A common problem with many causes and some solutions |
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237 | (2) |
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10.3 Plant species richness and geographical variables |
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239 | (15) |
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10.3.1 Frequentist fitting of the count GLM |
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242 | (5) |
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10.3.2 Bayesian fitting of count GLMs |
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247 | (7) |
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10.4 Modeling of counts with an excess of zeros: Zero-inflated and hurdle models |
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254 | (14) |
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10.4.1 Frequentist fitting of a zero-inflated model |
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256 | (5) |
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10.4.2 Bayesian fitting of a zero-augmented model |
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261 | (7) |
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268 | (3) |
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269 | (2) |
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11 Further Issues Involved in the Modeling of Counts |
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271 | (22) |
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11.1 "The more you search, the more you find" |
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271 | (1) |
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11.2 Log-linear models as count GLMs |
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272 | (3) |
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11.3 Frequentist fitting of a log-linear model |
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275 | (9) |
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11.4 Bayesian fitting of a log-linear model |
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284 | (7) |
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291 | (2) |
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292 | (1) |
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12 Models for Positive, Real-Valued Response Variables: Proportions and others |
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293 | (34) |
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293 | (1) |
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12.2 Modeling proportions |
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293 | (2) |
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12.3 Plant cover, grazing, and productivity |
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295 | (2) |
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12.4 Frequentist fitting of a GLM on proportions |
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297 | (6) |
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12.5 Bayesian fitting of a GLM on proportions |
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303 | (8) |
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12.6 Modeling positive, real-valued response variables |
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311 | (1) |
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12.7 Predicting tree seedling biomass |
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312 | (2) |
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12.8 Frequentist fitting of a gamma GLM |
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314 | (3) |
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12.9 Bayesian fitting of a gamma GLM |
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317 | (2) |
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12.10 Other related yet important cases of positive, real-valued response variables |
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319 | (1) |
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320 | (7) |
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321 | (2) |
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Approaches to Defining Priors |
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323 | (4) |
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PART III Incorporating Experimental and Survey Design Using Mixed Models |
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13 Accounting for Structure in Mixed/Hierarchical Models |
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327 | (46) |
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327 | (2) |
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13.2 Fixed effects and random effects in the frequentist framework |
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329 | (3) |
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13.3 Defining mixed effects models |
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332 | (3) |
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13.4 Problems and inconsistencies with the definition of random effects |
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335 | (1) |
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13.5 Population-level and group-level effects in Bayesian hierarchical models |
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336 | (3) |
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13.6 Fitting mixed models in the frequentist framework |
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339 | (14) |
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13.7 Statistical significance and model selection in frequentist mixed models |
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353 | (3) |
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13.8 The shrinkage or borrowing strength effect in mixed models |
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356 | (2) |
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13.9 Fitting mixed models in the Bayesian framework |
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358 | (12) |
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370 | (3) |
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371 | (2) |
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14 Experimental Design in the Life Sciences: The basics |
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373 | (20) |
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373 | (1) |
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14.2 The basic principles of experimental design |
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374 | (2) |
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14.3 Surveys and observational studies |
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376 | (1) |
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14.4 The main types of experimental design used in the life sciences |
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376 | (11) |
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377 | (1) |
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14.4.2 Randomized block design |
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378 | (2) |
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380 | (2) |
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382 | (2) |
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14.4.5 Repeated measures design |
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384 | (1) |
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385 | (2) |
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14.5 How many samples should we take? |
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387 | (6) |
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390 | (3) |
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15 Mixed Hierarchical Models and Experimental Design Data |
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393 | (60) |
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393 | (1) |
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15.2 Binary GLMM with a randomized block design |
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394 | (22) |
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15.2.1 Binary GLMM with a randomized block design: Frequentist models |
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398 | (9) |
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15.2.2 Binary GLMM with a randomized block design: Bayesian models |
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407 | (9) |
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15.3 Gaussian GLMM with a repeated measures design |
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416 | (12) |
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15.3.1 Gaussian GLMM with a repeated measures design: Frequentist models |
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420 | (3) |
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15.3.2 Gaussian GLMM with a repeated measures design: Bayesian models |
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423 | (5) |
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15.4 Beta GLMM with a split-plot design |
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428 | (21) |
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15.4.1 Beta GLMM with a split-plot design: Frequentist model |
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432 | (7) |
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15.4.2 Beta GLMM with a split-plot design: Bayesian model |
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439 | (10) |
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449 | (4) |
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449 | (2) |
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451 | (2) |
Appendix A List of R Packages Used in This Book |
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453 | (2) |
Appendix B Exploring and Describing the Evidence in Graphics (only available online at www.oup.com/companion/InchaustiSMWR) |
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Appendix C Using R and RStudio: The Bare-Bones Basics (only available online at www.oup.com/companion/InchaustiSMWR) |
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Index |
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455 | |