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1 Basic ideas in clinical trial design |
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1.1 Historical perspective |
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1.3 Placebos and blinding |
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1.4.1 Unrestricted randomisation |
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1.4.2 Block randomisation |
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1.4.3 Unequal randomisation |
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1.4.4 Stratified randomisation |
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1.4.5 Central randomisation |
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1.4.6 Dynamic allocation and minimisation |
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1.4.7 Cluster randomisation |
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1.6 Between- and within-patient designs |
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1.8.3 Signal-to-noise ratio |
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1.9 Confirmatory and exploratory trials |
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1.10 Superiority, equivalence and non-inferiority trials |
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1.12.2 Secondary variables |
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1.12.3 Surrogate variables |
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1.12.4 Global assessment variables |
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1.12.5 Composite variables |
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2 Sampling and inferential statistics |
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2.1 Sample and population |
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2.2 Sample statistics and population parameters |
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2.2.1 Sample and population distributions |
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2.3 The normal distribution |
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2.4 Sampling and the standard error of the mean |
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2.5 Standard errors more generally |
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2.5.1 The standard error for the difference between two means |
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2.5.2. Standard errors for proportions |
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2.5.3. The general setting |
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3 Confidence intervals and p-values |
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3.1 Confidence interval for a single mean |
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3.1.1 The 95 per cent confidence interval |
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3.1.2 Changing the confidence coefficient |
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3.1.3 Changing the multiplying constant |
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3.1.4 The role of the standard error |
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3.2. Confidence intervals for other parameters |
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3.2.1 Difference between two means |
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3.2.2 Confidence intervals for proportions |
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3.3.1 Interpreting the p-value |
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3.3.2 Calculating the p-value |
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3.3.4 The language of statistical significance |
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3.3.5 One-tailed and two-tailed tests |
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4 Tests for simple treatment comparisons |
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4.3 Interpreting the t-tests |
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4.4 The chi-square test for binary data |
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4.4.2 The link to a signal-to-noise ratio |
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4.5 Measures of treatment benefit |
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4.5.3 Relative risk reduction (RRR) |
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4.5.4 Number needed to treat (NNT) |
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4.5.5 Confidence intervals |
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4.7 The chi-square tests for categorical and ordinal data |
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4.7.2 Ordered categorical (ordinal) data |
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4.7.3 Measures of treatment benefit for categorical and ordinal data |
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4.8 Extensions for multiple treatment groups |
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4.8.1 Between-patient designs and continuous data |
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4.8.2 Within-patient designs and continuous data |
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4.8.3 Binary, categorical and ordinal data |
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4.8.4 Dose ranging studies |
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5.1 Rationale for multi-centre trials |
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5.2 Comparing treatments for continuous data |
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5.3 Evaluating the homogeneity of treatment effect |
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5.3.1 Treatment-by-centre interactions |
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5.3.2 Quantitative and qualitative interactions |
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5.4 Methods for binary, categorical and ordinal data |
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6 Adjusted analyses and analysis of covariance |
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6.1. Adjusting for baseline factors |
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6.2. Simple linear regression |
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6.5 Analysis of covariance for continuous data |
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6.5.1 Main effect of treatment |
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6.5.2 Treatment-by-covariate interactions |
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6.5.4 Connection with adjusted analyses |
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6.5.5 Advantages of analysis of covariance |
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6.6 Binary, categorical and ordinal data |
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6.7 Regulatory aspects of the use of covariates |
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*6.8 Connection between ANOVA and ANCOVA |
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7 Intention-to-treat and analysis sets |
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7.1 The principle of intention-to-treat |
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7.2 The practice of intention-to-treat |
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7.3.2 Complete cases analysis |
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7.3.3 Last observation carried forward (LOCF) |
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7.3.4 Success/failure classification |
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7.3.5 Worst case/best case imputation |
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7.3.7 Avoidance of missing data |
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7.4 Intention-to-treat and time-to-event data |
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7.5 General questions and considerations |
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8.1 Type I and type II errors |
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8.3 Calculating sample size |
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8.4 Impact of changing the parameters |
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8.4.2 Event rate in the control group |
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8.4.3 Clinically relevant difference |
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8.5.1 Power > 80 per cent? |
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8.5.2 Powering on the per-protocol set? |
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8.5.3 Sample size adjustment |
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8.6 Reporting the sample size calculation |
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9 Statistical significance and clinical importance |
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9.1 The link between p-values and confidence intervals |
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9.2 Confidence intervals for clinical importance |
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9.3 Misinterpretation of the p-value |
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9.3.1 Conclusions of similarity |
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9.3.2 The problem with 0.05 |
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10.1 Inflation of the type I error |
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10.2 How does multiplicity arise? |
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10.4 Multiple primary endpoints |
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10.4.1 Avoiding adjustment |
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10.4.2 Significance needed on all endpoints |
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10.4.3 Composite endpoints |
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10.4.4 Variables ranked according to clinical importance |
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10.5 Methods for adjustment |
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10.6 Multiple comparisons |
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10.7 Repeated evaluation over time |
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10.9 Other areas for multiplicity |
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10.9.1 Using different statistical tests |
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10.9.2 Different analysis sets |
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11 Non-parametric and related methods |
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11.1 Assumptions underlying the t-tests and their extensions |
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11.2 Homogeneity of variance |
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11.3 The assumption of normality |
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11.5 Non-parametric tests |
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11.5.1 The Mann–Whitney U-test |
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11.5.2 The Wilcoxon signed rank test |
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11.6. Advantages and disadvantages of non-parametric methods |
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12 Equivalence and non-inferiority |
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12.1 Demonstrating similarity |
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12.2 Confidence intervals for equivalence |
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12.3 Confidence intervals for non-inferiority |
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12.7.2 Therapeutic equivalence |
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12.7.4 The 10 per cent rule for cure rates |
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12.7.5 Biocreep and constancy |
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12.8 Sample size calculations |
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12.9 Switching between non-inferiority and superiority |
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13 The analysis of survival data |
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13.1 Time-to-event data and censoring |
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13.2 Kaplan–Meier (KM) curves |
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13.2.1 Plotting KM curves |
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13.2.2 Event rates and relative risk |
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13.2.3 Median event times |
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13.3 Treatment comparisons |
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13.4.2 Constant hazard ratio |
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13.4.3 Non-constant hazard ratio |
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13.4.4 Link to survival curves |
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*13.4.5 Calculating KM curves |
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13.5.1 Stratified methods |
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13.5.2 Proportional hazards regression |
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13.5.3 Accelerated failure time model |
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13.6 Independent censoring |
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13.7 Sample size calculations |
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14 Interim analysis and data monitoring committees |
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14.1 Stopping rules for interim analysis |
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14.2 Stopping for efficacy and futility |
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14.2.2 Futility and conditional power |
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14.2.3 Some practical issues |
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14.2.4 Analyses following completion of recruitment |
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14.4 Data monitoring committees |
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14.4.1 Introduction and responsibilities |
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14.4.3 Meetings and recommendations |
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14.5.1 Sample size re-evaluation |
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15.3 Statistical methodology |
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15.3.1 Methods for combination |
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15.3.2 Confidence intervals |
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15.3.3 Fixed and random effects |
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15.3.5 Detecting heterogeneity |
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15.4 Ensuring scientific validity |
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15.4.2 Publication bias and funnel plots |
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15.5 Meta-analysis in a regulatory setting |
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15.5.1 Retrospective analyses |
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16 The role of statistics and statisticians |
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16.1 The importance of statistical thinking at the design stage |
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16.2 Regulatory guidelines |
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16.3 The statistics process |
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16.3.1 The statistical methods section of the protocol |
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16.3.2 The statistical analysis plan |
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16.3.3 The data validation plan |
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16.3.5 Statistical analysis |
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16.3.6 Reporting the analysis |
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16.3.8 Sensitivity and robustness |
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16.4 The regulatory submission |
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16.5 Publications and presentations |
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