|
Part I Principles of Monte Carlo Methods |
|
|
|
|
3 | (10) |
|
1.1 Why Use Probabilistic Models and Simulations? |
|
|
3 | (6) |
|
1.1.1 What Are the Reasons for Probabilistic Models? |
|
|
4 | (2) |
|
1.1.2 What Are the Objectives of Random Simulations? |
|
|
6 | (3) |
|
1.2 Organization of the Monograph |
|
|
9 | (4) |
|
2 Strong Law of Large Numbers and Monte Carlo Methods |
|
|
13 | (24) |
|
2.1 Strong Law of Large Numbers, Examples of Monte Carlo Methods |
|
|
13 | (5) |
|
2.1.1 Strong Law of Large Numbers, Almost Sure Convergence |
|
|
13 | (2) |
|
|
15 | (1) |
|
2.1.3 Neutron Transport Simulations |
|
|
15 | (2) |
|
2.1.4 Stochastic Numerical Methods for Partial Differential Equations |
|
|
17 | (1) |
|
2.2 Simulation Algorithms for Simple Probability Distributions |
|
|
18 | (7) |
|
2.2.1 Uniform Distributions |
|
|
19 | (1) |
|
2.2.2 Discrete Distributions |
|
|
20 | (1) |
|
2.2.3 Gaussian Distributions |
|
|
21 | (1) |
|
2.2.4 Cumulative Distribution Function Inversion, Exponential Distributions |
|
|
22 | (1) |
|
|
23 | (2) |
|
2.3 Discrete-Time Martingales, Proof of the SLLN |
|
|
25 | (8) |
|
2.3.1 Reminders on Conditional Expectation |
|
|
25 | (2) |
|
2.3.2 Martingales and Sub-martingales, Backward Martingales |
|
|
27 | (3) |
|
2.3.3 Proof of the Strong Law of Large Numbers |
|
|
30 | (3) |
|
|
33 | (4) |
|
3 Non-asymptotic Error Estimates for Monte Carlo Methods |
|
|
37 | (30) |
|
3.1 Convergence in Law and Characteristic Functions |
|
|
37 | (3) |
|
3.2 Central Limit Theorem |
|
|
40 | (2) |
|
3.2.1 Asymptotic Confidence Intervals |
|
|
41 | (1) |
|
3.3 Berry-Esseen's Theorem |
|
|
42 | (3) |
|
|
45 | (2) |
|
3.4.1 Absolute Confidence Intervals |
|
|
45 | (2) |
|
3.5 Concentration Inequalities |
|
|
47 | (7) |
|
3.5.1 Logarithmic Sobolev Inequalities |
|
|
48 | (2) |
|
3.5.2 Concentration Inequalities, Absolute Confidence Intervals |
|
|
50 | (4) |
|
3.6 Elementary Variance Reduction Techniques |
|
|
54 | (6) |
|
|
54 | (1) |
|
3.6.2 Importance Sampling |
|
|
55 | (5) |
|
|
60 | (7) |
|
Part II Exact and Approximate Simulation of Markov Processes |
|
|
|
4 Poisson Processes as Particular Markov Processes |
|
|
67 | (22) |
|
4.1 Quick Introduction to Markov Processes |
|
|
67 | (2) |
|
4.1.1 Some Issues in Markovian Modeling |
|
|
67 | (1) |
|
4.1.2 Rudiments on Processes, Sample Paths, and Laws |
|
|
68 | (1) |
|
4.2 Poisson Processes: Characterization, Properties |
|
|
69 | (11) |
|
4.2.1 Point Processes and Poisson Processes |
|
|
69 | (6) |
|
4.2.2 Simple and Strong Markov Property |
|
|
75 | (2) |
|
4.2.3 Superposition and Decomposition |
|
|
77 | (3) |
|
4.3 Simulation and Approximation |
|
|
80 | (5) |
|
4.3.1 Simulation of Inter-arrivals |
|
|
80 | (1) |
|
4.3.2 Simulation of Independent Poisson Processes |
|
|
81 | (1) |
|
4.3.3 Long Time or Large Intensity Limit, Applications |
|
|
82 | (3) |
|
|
85 | (4) |
|
5 Discrete-Space Markov Processes |
|
|
89 | (32) |
|
5.1 Characterization, Specification, Properties |
|
|
89 | (10) |
|
5.1.1 Measures, Functions, and Transition Matrices |
|
|
89 | (2) |
|
5.1.2 Simple and Strong Markov Property |
|
|
91 | (4) |
|
5.1.3 Semigroup, Infinitesimal Generator, and Evolution Law |
|
|
95 | (4) |
|
5.2 Constructions, Existence, Simulation, Equations |
|
|
99 | (16) |
|
5.2.1 Fundamental Constructions |
|
|
99 | (2) |
|
5.2.2 Explosion or Existence for a Markov Process |
|
|
101 | (2) |
|
5.2.3 Fundamental Simulation, Fictitious Jump Method |
|
|
103 | (2) |
|
5.2.4 Kolmogorov Equations, Feynman-Kac Formula |
|
|
105 | (2) |
|
5.2.5 Generators and Semigroups in Bounded Operator Algebras |
|
|
107 | (5) |
|
|
112 | (3) |
|
|
115 | (6) |
|
6 Continuous-Space Markov Processes with Jumps |
|
|
121 | (34) |
|
|
121 | (5) |
|
6.1.1 Measures, Functions, and Transition Kernels |
|
|
121 | (2) |
|
6.1.2 Markov Property, Finite-Dimensional Marginals |
|
|
123 | (2) |
|
6.1.3 Semigroup, Infinitesimal Generator |
|
|
125 | (1) |
|
6.2 Markov Processes Evolving Only by Isolated Jumps |
|
|
126 | (10) |
|
6.2.1 Semigroup, Infinitesimal Generator, and Evolution Law |
|
|
126 | (4) |
|
6.2.2 Construction, Simulation, Existence |
|
|
130 | (3) |
|
6.2.3 Kolmogorov Equations, Feynman-Kac Formula, Bounded Generator Case |
|
|
133 | (3) |
|
6.3 Markov Processes Following an Ordinary Differential Equation Between Jumps: PDMP |
|
|
136 | (15) |
|
6.3.1 Sample Paths, Evolution, Integro-Differential Generator |
|
|
136 | (5) |
|
6.3.2 Construction, Simulation, Existence |
|
|
141 | (3) |
|
6.3.3 Kolmogorov Equations, Feynman-Kac Formula |
|
|
144 | (2) |
|
6.3.4 Application to Kinetic Equations |
|
|
146 | (3) |
|
|
149 | (2) |
|
|
151 | (4) |
|
7 Discretization of Stochastic Differential Equations |
|
|
155 | (44) |
|
7.1 Reminders on Ito's Stochastic Calculus |
|
|
155 | (10) |
|
7.1.1 Stochastic Integrals and Ito Processes |
|
|
155 | (5) |
|
7.1.2 Ito's Formula, Existence and Uniqueness of Solutions of Stochastic Differential Equations |
|
|
160 | (2) |
|
7.1.3 Markov Properties, Martingale Problems and Fokker-Planck Equations |
|
|
162 | (3) |
|
7.2 Euler and Milstein Schemes |
|
|
165 | (3) |
|
7.3 Moments of the Solution and of Its Approximations |
|
|
168 | (5) |
|
7.4 Convergence Rates in Lp(Ω) Norm and Almost Surely |
|
|
173 | (3) |
|
7.5 Monte Carlo Methods for Parabolic Partial Differential Equations |
|
|
176 | (4) |
|
7.5.1 The Principle of the Method |
|
|
176 | (1) |
|
7.5.2 Introduction of the Error Analysis |
|
|
177 | (3) |
|
7.6 Optimal Convergence Rate: The Talay-Tubaro Expansion |
|
|
180 | (5) |
|
7.7 Romberg-Richardson Extrapolation Methods |
|
|
185 | (1) |
|
7.8 Probabilistic Interpretation and Estimates for Parabolic Partial Differential Equations |
|
|
186 | (5) |
|
|
191 | (8) |
|
Part III Variance Reduction, Girsanov's Theorem, and Stochastic Algorithms |
|
|
|
8 Variance Reduction and Stochastic Differential Equations |
|
|
199 | (14) |
|
8.1 Preliminary Reminders on the Girsanov Theorem |
|
|
199 | (1) |
|
8.2 Control Variates Method |
|
|
200 | (2) |
|
8.3 Variance Reduction for Sensitivity Analysis |
|
|
202 | (4) |
|
8.3.1 Differentiable Terminal Conditions |
|
|
202 | (2) |
|
8.3.2 Non-differentiable Terminal Conditions |
|
|
204 | (2) |
|
8.4 Importance Sampling Method |
|
|
206 | (3) |
|
8.5 Statistical Romberg Method |
|
|
209 | (1) |
|
|
210 | (3) |
|
|
213 | (18) |
|
|
213 | (1) |
|
9.2 Study in an Idealized Framework |
|
|
214 | (7) |
|
|
214 | (2) |
|
9.2.2 The Ordinary Differential Equation Method, Martingale Increments |
|
|
216 | (1) |
|
9.2.3 Long-Time Behavior of the Algorithm |
|
|
217 | (4) |
|
9.3 Variance Reduction for Monte Carlo Methods |
|
|
221 | (4) |
|
9.3.1 Searching for an Importance Sampling |
|
|
221 | (2) |
|
9.3.2 Variance Reduction and Stochastic Algorithms |
|
|
223 | (2) |
|
|
225 | (6) |
Appendix Solutions to Selected Problems |
|
231 | (22) |
References |
|
253 | (4) |
Index |
|
257 | |