| About the Author |
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xviii | |
| Foreword |
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xix | |
| Preface and Acknowledgments |
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xxi | |
| How to Use This Book |
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xxxii | |
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The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling |
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1 | (30) |
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1 | (4) |
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A New Approach to Modelling |
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5 | (2) |
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The Puzzling Dynamics of International Fisheries |
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7 | (3) |
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Model of a Natural Fishery |
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10 | (3) |
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Simulated Dynamics of a Natural Fishery |
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12 | (1) |
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Operating a Simple Harvested Fishery |
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13 | (12) |
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Harvesting in Bonavista, Newfoundland - A Thought Experiment |
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15 | (3) |
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A Start on Analysing Dynamics and Performance Through Time |
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18 | (2) |
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Saving Bonavista - Using Simulation to Devise a Sustainable Fishery |
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20 | (1) |
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Dynamic Complexity and Performance Through Time |
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21 | (2) |
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Cunning Fish - A Scenario with Reduced Dynamic Complexity |
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23 | (2) |
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Preview of the Book and Topics Covered |
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25 | (2) |
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Appendix - Archive Materials from World Dynamics |
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27 | (1) |
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28 | (3) |
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Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking |
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31 | (28) |
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Ways of Interpreting Situations in Business and Society |
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31 | (8) |
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32 | (2) |
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Feedback Systems Thinking - An Illustration |
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34 | (3) |
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37 | (1) |
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The Invisibility of Feedback |
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38 | (1) |
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A Start on Causal Loop Diagrams |
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39 | (2) |
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Structure and Behaviour Through Time - Feedback Loops and the Dynamics of a Slow-to-Respond Shower |
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41 | (5) |
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Processes in a Shower `System' |
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43 | (2) |
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Simulation of a Shower and the Dynamics of Balancing Loops |
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45 | (1) |
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From Events to Dynamics and Feedback - Drug-related Crime |
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46 | (5) |
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48 | (1) |
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Scope and Boundary of Factors in Drug-related Crime |
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49 | (1) |
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An Aside - More Practice with Link Polarity and Loop Types |
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50 | (1) |
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Purpose of Causal Loop Diagrams - A Summary |
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51 | (1) |
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Feedback Structure and Dynamics of a Technology-based Growth Business |
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51 | (3) |
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Causal Loop Diagrams - Basic Tips |
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54 | (3) |
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Picking and Naming Variables |
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54 | (1) |
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Meaning of Arrows and Link Polarity |
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55 | (1) |
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Drawing, Identifying and Naming Feedback Loops |
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56 | (1) |
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57 | (2) |
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Modelling Dynamic Systems |
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59 | (28) |
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59 | (7) |
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Accumulating a `Stock' of Faculty at Greenfield University |
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61 | (3) |
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Asset Stocks in a Real Organisation - BBC World Service |
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64 | (2) |
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66 | (1) |
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Modelling Symbols in Use: A Closer Look at Drug-related Crime |
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67 | (4) |
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71 | (5) |
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71 | (2) |
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Funds Required to Satisfy Addiction |
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73 | (1) |
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Street Price and Price Change |
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73 | (2) |
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75 | (1) |
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Experiments with the Model of Drug-related Crime |
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76 | (9) |
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76 | (2) |
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Escalating Crime - The Base Case |
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78 | (2) |
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Drilling Down to the Equations |
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80 | (1) |
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Anomalous Behaviour Over Time and Model Boundary |
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81 | (4) |
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Benefits of Model Building and Simulation |
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85 | (1) |
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85 | (2) |
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87 | (18) |
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87 | (5) |
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Taking a Shower in World of Showers A |
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88 | (3) |
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Taking a Shower in World of Showers B |
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91 | (1) |
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Redesigning Your World of Showers |
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92 | (6) |
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Reflections on the World of Showers |
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94 | (1) |
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Metaphorical Shower Worlds in GlaxoSmithKline, IBM and Harley-Davidson |
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95 | (3) |
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98 | (3) |
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A Tour of Formulations in the Comfort-seeking Loop of the Hidden Shower |
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98 | (3) |
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Interdependence of Showers - Coupling Formulations |
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101 | (1) |
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Simulations of World of Showers B |
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101 | (2) |
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103 | (2) |
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Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building |
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105 | (58) |
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An Overview of the Modelling Process |
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105 | (6) |
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Dynamic Hypothesis and Fundamental Modes of Dynamic Behaviour |
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107 | (1) |
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108 | (3) |
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Employment and Production Instability - Puzzling Performance Over Time |
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111 | (8) |
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Dialogue About Production Control |
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114 | (3) |
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Thought Experiment: a Surprise Demand Increase in an Ideal Factory |
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117 | (2) |
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Equation Formulations and Computations in Production Control |
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119 | (9) |
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Forecasting Shipments - Standard Formulations for Information Smoothing |
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120 | (2) |
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Inventory Control - Standard Formulations for Asset Stock Adjustment |
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122 | (1) |
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123 | (1) |
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The Computations Behind Simulation |
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124 | (4) |
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Modelling Workforce Management and Factory Production Dynamics |
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128 | (7) |
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Dialogue About Workforce Management |
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128 | (1) |
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Operating Constraint Linking Workforce to Production |
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129 | (1) |
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Simulation of the Complete Model: A Surprise Demand Increase in a Factory Where Production is Constrained by the Size of the Workforce |
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130 | (4) |
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134 | (1) |
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Equation Formulations in Workforce Management |
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135 | (4) |
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Departure Rate - Standard Formulation for Stock Depletion |
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135 | (1) |
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Hiring - Standard Formulations for Asset Stock Replacement and Adjustment |
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136 | (2) |
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138 | (1) |
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Chronic Cyclicality in Employment and Production and How to Cure It |
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139 | (7) |
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The Curious Effect of Random Variations in Demand |
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139 | (1) |
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Industry Cyclicality and Business Cycles |
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140 | (3) |
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Policy Formulation and What-ifs to Improve Factory Performance |
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143 | (3) |
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Modelling for Learning and Soft Systems |
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146 | (9) |
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A Second Pause for Reflection: System Dynamics and Soft Systems |
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146 | (5) |
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A Link to Soft Systems Methodology |
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151 | (2) |
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Alternative Views of a Radio Broadcaster |
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153 | (2) |
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Appendix 1: Model Communication and Policy Structure Diagrams |
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155 | (2) |
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Appendix 2: The Dynamics of Information Smoothing |
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157 | (3) |
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160 | (3) |
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The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion |
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163 | (30) |
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Stocks and Flows in New Product Adoption - A Conceptual Diffusion Model |
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164 | (2) |
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The Bass Model - An Elegant Special Case of a Diffusion Model |
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166 | (8) |
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The Dynamics of Product Adoption by Word-of-mouth |
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169 | (1) |
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The Need to Kick-start Adoption |
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170 | (1) |
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The Complete Bass Diffusion Model With Advertising |
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171 | (2) |
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The Dynamics of Product Adoption by Word-of-mouth and Advertising |
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173 | (1) |
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A Variation on the Diffusion Model: The Rise of Low-cost Air Travel in Europe |
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174 | (8) |
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easyJet - A Bright Idea, But Will it Work? |
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175 | (1) |
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Visualising the Business: Winning Customers in a New Segment |
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176 | (3) |
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Visualising Retaliation and Rivalry |
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179 | (2) |
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Feedback Loops in the easyJet Model |
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181 | (1) |
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Strategy and Simulation of Growth Scenarios |
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182 | (5) |
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Using the Fliers Simulator to Create Your Own Scenarios |
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185 | (2) |
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Simulation, Predictions and Scenarios |
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187 | (1) |
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187 | (1) |
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Appendix: More About the Fliers Model |
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188 | (3) |
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Back to the Future - From easyJet to People Express |
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189 | (2) |
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191 | (2) |
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193 | (64) |
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A Conceptual Model of Market Growth and Capital Investment |
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195 | (3) |
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195 | (1) |
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196 | (2) |
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Formulation Guidelines for Portraying Feedback Structure |
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198 | (9) |
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Review of Operating Policies and Information Flows in the Market Growth Model |
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201 | (1) |
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201 | (1) |
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202 | (1) |
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203 | (1) |
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204 | (2) |
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206 | (1) |
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An Information Feedback View of Management and Policy |
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207 | (6) |
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Information Available to Decision Makers and Bounded Rationality |
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209 | (3) |
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Nature of Decision Making and the Decision Process |
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212 | (1) |
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Policy Structure and Formulations for Sales Growth |
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213 | (5) |
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Sales Force Hiring - Standard Stock Adjustment Formulation |
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215 | (1) |
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Sales Force Budgeting - Revenue Allocation and Information Smoothing |
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215 | (1) |
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Order Fulfilment - Standard Stock Depletion Formulation |
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216 | (2) |
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218 | (1) |
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Policy Structure and Formulations for Limits to Sales Growth |
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218 | (5) |
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Customer Response to Delivery Delay - Non-linear Graphical Converter |
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219 | (2) |
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Customers' Perception of Delivery Delay - Infomation Smoothing |
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221 | (1) |
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Order Fulfilment and Capacity Utilisation |
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221 | (2) |
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Policy Structure and Formulations for Capital Investment |
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223 | (5) |
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Assessment of Delivery Delay |
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223 | (1) |
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Goal Formation - Weighted Average of Adaptive and Static Goals |
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224 | (1) |
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Capacity Expansion - Fractional Asset Stock Adjustment |
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225 | (2) |
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Production Capacity - Two-Stage Stock Accumulation |
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227 | (1) |
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228 | (13) |
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Simulation of Sales Growth Loop |
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229 | (3) |
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Strength of Reinforcing Loop |
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232 | (1) |
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Simulation of Sales Growth and Customer Response Loops |
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233 | (4) |
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Simulation of the Complete Model with all Three Loops Active - The Base Case |
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237 | (4) |
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Redesign of the Investment Policy |
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241 | (6) |
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Top Management Optimism in Capital Investment |
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242 | (2) |
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High and Unyielding Standards - A Fixed Operating Goal for Delivery Delay |
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244 | (3) |
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Policy Design, Growth and Dynamic Complexity |
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247 | (1) |
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248 | (5) |
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Overview of Policy Structure |
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248 | (3) |
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Growth and Underinvestment at People Express? |
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251 | (2) |
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More Examples of Growth Strategies that Failed or Faltered |
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253 | (1) |
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Appendix - Gain of a Reinforcing Loop |
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253 | (2) |
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255 | (2) |
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Industry Dynamics - Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers |
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257 | (50) |
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Problem Articulation - Puzzling Dynamics of Oil Price |
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258 | (3) |
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Towards a Dynamic Hypothesis |
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260 | (1) |
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Model Development Process |
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261 | (3) |
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A Closer Look at the Stakeholders and Their Investment Decision Making |
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264 | (14) |
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Investment by the Independent Producers |
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265 | (1) |
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266 | (2) |
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Policy Structure and Formulations for Upstream Investment - Fractional Asset Stock Adjustment |
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268 | (2) |
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270 | (2) |
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272 | (2) |
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274 | (1) |
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275 | (2) |
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Russian Oil - Incorporating the Unforeseen |
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277 | (1) |
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Connecting the Pieces - A Feedback Systems View |
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278 | (6) |
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Two Invisible Hands and More |
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279 | (2) |
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281 | (1) |
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Webs of Intrigue - Inside OPEC's Opulent Bargaining Rooms |
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282 | (2) |
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A Simple Thought Experiment: Green Mindset and Global Recession |
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284 | (1) |
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Using the Model to Generate Scenarios |
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285 | (16) |
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Archive Scenario 1: 10-Year Supply Squeeze Followed by Supply Glut |
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286 | (5) |
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Archive Scenario 2: Quota Busting in a Green World |
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291 | (3) |
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Contemporary Scenario: Asian Boom with Quota Busting, Cautious Upstream Investment and Russian Oil |
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294 | (5) |
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A Contemporary High Price Scenario - How to Push Of Price Over $60 per Barrel |
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299 | (2) |
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301 | (3) |
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Effect of Global Economy and Environment on Demand |
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302 | (1) |
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302 | (1) |
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Opportunists' Capacity Bias |
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302 | (1) |
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303 | (1) |
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303 | (1) |
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Time to Build Trust in Russia (only in Oil World 1995) |
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303 | (1) |
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The Oil Producers' Microworld |
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304 | (2) |
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306 | (1) |
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Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling |
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307 | (66) |
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Urban Dynamics - Growth and Stagnation in Cities |
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308 | (6) |
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Urban Model Conceptualisation |
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309 | (4) |
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Policy Implications of Urban Dynamics |
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313 | (1) |
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Medical Workforce Dynamics and Patient Care |
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314 | (21) |
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315 | (1) |
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Medical Workforce Planning Model |
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316 | (4) |
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320 | (2) |
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Base Run - Changing Composition of the Medical Workforce |
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322 | (1) |
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Base Run - Quality of Patient Care |
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323 | (1) |
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Intangible Effects of the European Working Time Directive |
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324 | (1) |
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Modelling Junior Doctor Morale |
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325 | (1) |
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Overview of the Complete Model |
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326 | (1) |
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The Formulation of Work-life Balance and Flexibility |
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327 | (2) |
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Simulations of the Complete Model |
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329 | (2) |
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Conclusions from the Medical Workforce Study |
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331 | (4) |
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Fishery Dynamics and Regulatory Policy |
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335 | (25) |
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335 | (2) |
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A Simple Harvested Fishery - Balancing Catch and Fish Regeneration |
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337 | (3) |
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A Harvested Fishery with Endogenous Investment - Coping with a Tipping Point |
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340 | (4) |
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Simulated Dynamics of a Harvested Fishery with Endogenous Investment |
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344 | (1) |
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Control and Regulation - Policy Design for Sustainable Fisheries |
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345 | (1) |
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Formulation of Deployment Policy |
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346 | (3) |
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Stock and Flow Equations for Ships at Sea, Ships in Harbour and Scrap Rate |
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349 | (1) |
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Simulated Dynamics of a Regulated Fishery - the Base Case |
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349 | (3) |
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Policy Design - A Higher Benchmark for Fish Density |
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352 | (2) |
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Dynamics of a Weakly Regulated Fishery |
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354 | (2) |
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Policy Design - Lower Exit Barriers Through Quicker Scrapping of Idle Ships |
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356 | (4) |
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Sustainability, Regulation and Self-Restraint |
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360 | (1) |
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360 | (1) |
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Appendix - Alternative Simulation Approaches |
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361 | (10) |
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From Urban Dynamics to SimCity |
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362 | (1) |
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Discrete-event Simulation and System Dynamics |
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362 | (7) |
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Conclusions on Alternative Approaches to Simulation Modelling |
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369 | (2) |
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371 | (2) |
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Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning |
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373 | (46) |
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Mental Models, Transitional Objects and Formal Models |
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374 | (2) |
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Models of Business and Social Systems |
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376 | (1) |
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Tests for Building Confidence in Models |
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377 | (2) |
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Model Confidence Building Tests in Action: A Case Study in Fast-moving Consumer Goods |
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379 | (2) |
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380 | (1) |
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381 | (1) |
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Model Structure Tests and the Soap Industry Model |
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381 | (11) |
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Boundary Adequacy and Structure Verification Tests Applied to a Simple Soap Model |
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383 | (2) |
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A Refined View of the Market |
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385 | (2) |
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Boundary Adequacy and Sector Map of the Complete Soap Industry Model |
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387 | (1) |
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Managerial Decision-making Processes in the Old English Bar Soap Company |
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388 | (2) |
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Managerial Decision-making Processes in Global Personal Care |
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390 | (1) |
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Managerial Decision-making Processes in Supermarkets |
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391 | (1) |
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Equation Formulation Tests and the Soap Industry Model |
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392 | (13) |
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Substitution of Bar Soap by Shower Gel |
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392 | (1) |
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Brand Switching Between Competing Bar Soap Products |
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393 | (5) |
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Model Behaviour Tests and Fit to Data |
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398 | (3) |
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Tests of Fit on Simulations of the Soap Industry Model - The Base Case |
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401 | (4) |
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Tests of Learning from Simulation |
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405 | (5) |
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Comparing Simulations with Expectations and Interpreting Surprise Behaviour |
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406 | (1) |
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Partial Model Tests to Examine Pet Theories and Misconceptions |
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406 | (2) |
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408 | (1) |
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408 | (1) |
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Understanding Competitive Dynamics in Fast-moving Consumer Goods |
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409 | (1) |
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Summary of Confidence Building Tests |
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410 | (3) |
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Conclusion - Model Fidelity and Usefulness |
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413 | (4) |
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417 | (2) |
| Index |
|
419 | |
