Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting, Second Edition is a comprehensive resource that delves into the intricate realm of S2S predictability science. This volume brings together the latest advancements in numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and the development of application sectors. Bridging the gap between weather and climate forecasting, it provides atmospheric and climate scientists with the most recent insights and methodologies in this swiftly evolving field. This updated edition includes new chapters on the role of the ocean in sub-seasonal predictability, machine learning in S2S prediction, and the application of S2S climate services in Africa.
It also explores S2S prediction for energy and marine weather forecasting. By addressing these various aspects, the book serves as a valuable guide for those seeking to understand and apply S2S predictions in their work.
Part I: Setting the scene
1. Introduction: Why S2S?
2. Weather forecasting: What sets the forecast horizon?
3. Weather within Climate: Sub-seasonal predictability of tropical daily
rainfall characteristics
Part II: Sources of S2S Predictability
4. The Madden-Julian Oscillation
5. Extratropical sub-seasonaltoseasonal oscillations and multiple regimes:
The dynamical systems view
6. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections
7. Land surface processes relevant to S2S prediction
8. Role of ocean in sub-seasonal predictability
9. The role of sea ice in sub-seasonal predictability
10. Sub-seasonal Predictability and the Stratosphere
Part III: S2S Modeling and Forecasting
11. Forecast system design, configuration, complexity
12. Ensemble generation: the TIGGE and S2S ensembles
13. Forecast recalibration and multi-model combination
14. Forecast verification for S2S time scales
15. Machine learning S2S prediction
Part IV: S2S Applications
16. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes
17. Communication and dissemination of forecasts and engaging user
communities
18. Seamless prediction of monsoon onset and active/break phases
19. Predicting climate impacts on health at sub-seasonal to seasonal
timescales
20. Co-produced S2S Climate Services in Africa
21. S2S for Energy
22. Marine weather prediction on S2S timescales
23. Epilogue
Dr Andrew Robertson is a Senior Research Scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, part of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He heads the IRI Climate Group and teaches as an adjunct professor at Columbia. Graduating with a PhD in atmospheric dynamics, he has over 30 years of experience in topics ranging from midlatitude meteorology, coupled ocean-atmosphere climate dynamics, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting, downscaling, and tailoring of climate information for use in conjunction with sectoral models for climate adaptation and risk management. He has taught in capacity building training courses around the world. Frédéric Vitart is a Senior Research Scientist at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). After graduating with a PhD in atmospheric and oceanic sciences from Princeton University, he joined ECMWF in 1998, where he leads the research on ensemble sub-seasonal forecasts. He has over 20 years of experience in sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction, couple ocean-atmosphere modeling, tropical and mid-latitude meteorology, tropical cyclone prediction. He is the author of over 100 publications in the peer-review literature and has taught in several training courses around the world.
