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Survival under Uncertainty: An Introduction to Probability Models of Social Structure and Evolution 1st ed. 2016 [Kõva köide]

  • Formaat: Hardback, 238 pages, kõrgus x laius: 235x155 mm, kaal: 5029 g, 44 Illustrations, color; 11 Illustrations, black and white; XIV, 238 p. 55 illus., 44 illus. in color., 1 Hardback
  • Sari: Understanding Complex Systems
  • Ilmumisaeg: 05-Jul-2016
  • Kirjastus: Springer International Publishing AG
  • ISBN-10: 3319394193
  • ISBN-13: 9783319394190
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Survival under Uncertainty: An Introduction to Probability Models of Social Structure and Evolution 1st ed. 2016Suurem pilt
  • Formaat: Hardback, 238 pages, kõrgus x laius: 235x155 mm, kaal: 5029 g, 44 Illustrations, color; 11 Illustrations, black and white; XIV, 238 p. 55 illus., 44 illus. in color., 1 Hardback
  • Sari: Understanding Complex Systems
  • Ilmumisaeg: 05-Jul-2016
  • Kirjastus: Springer International Publishing AG
  • ISBN-10: 3319394193
  • ISBN-13: 9783319394190
Teised raamatud teemal:
Püsilink: https://www.kriso.ee/db/9783319394190.html
Märksõnad:

This book introduces and studies a number of stochastic models of subsistence, communication, social evolution and political transition that will allow the reader to grasp the role of uncertainty as a fundamental property of our irreversible world. At the same time, it aims to bring about a more interdisciplinary and quantitative approach across very diverse fields of research in the humanities and social sciences.

 Through the examples treated in this work - including anthropology, demography, migration, geopolitics, management, and bioecology, among other things - evidence is gathered to show that volatile environments may change the rules of the evolutionary selection and dynamics of any social system, creating a situation of adaptive uncertainty, in particular, whenever the rate of change of the environment exceeds the rate of adaptation.

 Last but not least, it is hoped that this book will contribute to the understanding that inherent randomness can also be a great opportunity – for social systems and individuals alike – to help face the challenge of “survival under uncertainty”.

1 Subsistence Under Uncertainty
1(20)
1.1 Introduction
1(1)
1.2 Structure of Uncertainty
2(1)
1.3 Principle of Subsistence
2(2)
1.4 Model of Subsistence Under Uncertainty
4(4)
1.5 Probability of Subsistence Under Uncertainty
8(2)
1.6 Transitory Subsistence Under Dual Uncertainty
10(1)
1.7 Extraordinary Longevity Under Singular Uncertainty
11(2)
1.8 Zipfian Longevity in a Land of Plenty
13(2)
1.9 A General Rule of Thumb for Subsistence Under Uncertainty
15(1)
1.10 On the Optimal Strategy of Subsistence under Uncertainty
16(3)
1.11 Conclusion
19(2)
2 Love of Life and the Maximum Age Diversity Principle
21(20)
2.1 Introduction
21(1)
2.2 Age-Specific Survivorship
22(1)
2.3 Population Pyramids and Survival Probability
23(2)
2.4 Spring, Autumn, and Entropy
25(4)
2.5 Survival Entropy is Finite
29(1)
2.6 The Maximum Age Diversity Principle
30(2)
2.7 Persistent Striving for More Opportunities
32(4)
2.8 Potential Force Enhancing Age Diversity
36(1)
2.9 Age Diversity in the Global Population Is Growing Steadily, Data of the UN Statistics Division Suggests
37(3)
2.10 Conclusion
40(1)
3 Life Tactics Amidst Uncertainty: Austerity Versus Progress
41(20)
3.1 Introduction
41(1)
3.2 Where Are We Going? Entropy of Survival Under Uncertainty
42(3)
3.3 Will I Ever See My Great-Grandchildren?
45(1)
3.4 Economies of Scale in the Age Production Process
46(2)
3.5 Why AIDS- and Other Disease-Prevention Strategies Would Not Work in Precarious Environments
48(1)
3.6 Austerity Measures Do Not Assume a Safe Exit Strategy
49(3)
3.7 The Scarcity Mindset Amidst Uncertainty
52(2)
3.8 Confronting Uncertainty by Stress Avoidance and Stress Resistance
54(1)
3.9 Human Progress as a Survival Strategy
55(4)
3.10 Conclusion
59(2)
4 Time and Institutions
61(24)
4.1 Introduction
62(1)
4.2 Concepts of Time Under Uncertainty
63(5)
4.3 Time Model of Russian Roulette
68(1)
4.4 Linear Time Model
69(2)
4.5 Cyclic Time Model
71(2)
4.6 Cultural Time of Rituals
73(1)
4.7 Risk and the Open Future of Linear Time. A Desperate Need for Others
74(2)
4.8 In Search of Lost Time Cyclicity: Institutions
76(3)
4.9 A Desperate Need for the Past
79(2)
4.10 Why Do We Think that the Majority Is Always Right?
81(2)
4.11 Conclusion
83(2)
5 We Speak Up for Time, and Time Speaks Up for Us
85(24)
5.1 Introduction
86(1)
5.2 Data Collection for the Study of Communication Patterns in Organizations
87(1)
5.3 Statistics on Interactions in Organizations
88(7)
5.3.1 Intervals Between Interactions
89(4)
5.3.2 Interaction Durations
93(2)
5.4 Time and Social Structure of Interactions
95(4)
5.5 Time, Interaction Synchronization, and Information Transmission
99(6)
5.6 Communication Pyramid and Longevity of Institutions
105(2)
5.7 Conclusion
107(2)
6 Anatomy of Success, Hierarchy, and Inequality
109(30)
6.1 Introduction
110(1)
6.2 Enhancing the Chances of Success by Persistent Learning and Skill Acquisition
110(4)
6.3 Like a Squirrel in a Wheel: Freud's Repetition Compulsion
114(2)
6.4 The Rich Get Richer: Pareto Principle
116(4)
6.5 Inequality Arising from Risk-Taking Under Uncertainty
120(2)
6.6 Generalized Mass-Action Principle: Emergence of Hierarchies Under Uncertainty
122(4)
6.7 Inverse Mass-Action Principle: Inequality Due to Uniqueness and Scarcity
126(4)
6.8 Cross-Database Analysis Suggests the Worldwide Growth-Inequality Relation (U-Curve)
130(7)
6.9 Conclusion
137(2)
7 Evolution and Advantage Under Uncertainty
139(34)
7.1 Introduction
140(1)
7.2 Survival with Reproduction
141(5)
7.3 Survival by Endurance Running
146(2)
7.4 Logarithmic Usefulness of Time and Hyperbolic Discounting of the Future Under Uncertainty
148(3)
7.5 Hyperbolic Discounting of Time: Would You Prefer a Dollar Today or Three Dollars Tomorrow?
151(1)
7.6 Stochastic Model of Competitive Advantage Under Uncertainty
152(4)
7.7 The Fastest Way to Excel over Rivals Under Uncertainty
156(2)
7.8 Maintaining Control by Evading Competition
158(2)
7.9 In the Face of Uncertainty, the `Fittest' is Punished, Rather than Rewarded
160(3)
7.10 Emigration Can Give Us Yet Another Chance
163(3)
7.10.1 When Is the Right Time to Migrate?
165(1)
7.11 An Even Equilibrium in a Hierarchical Society
166(5)
7.11.1 What Would Such an Equilibrium State Be?
170(1)
7.12 Conclusion
171(2)
8 Impersonal Methods of Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Social Conformity, Market Economy, and Authoritarianism
173(34)
8.1 Introduction
173(1)
8.2 Impersonal Methods of Decision Making
174(2)
8.3 Uncertainty of Ends and Uncertainty of Means
176(2)
8.4 Social Conformity as an Exopsychic Method of Decision Making
178(4)
8.5 Crowd Behavior and Circular Reaction
182(2)
8.6 Public Choice and the Role of Mass Media: When Does Propaganda Work?
184(4)
8.7 What is the Maximum Size of a Working Team?
188(2)
8.8 Mastering Social Conformity in the Face of Uncertainty: Divide et Impera
190(3)
8.9 Market as an Impersonal Method of Decision Making
193(3)
8.10 The Law of Supply and Demand is a Saddle Point
196(3)
8.11 In Search of Persistent Economic Growth
199(4)
8.12 Living Under Disintegrated Societal Institutions: Authoritarianism
203(2)
8.13 Conclusion
205(2)
9 On the Edge of Uncertainty: Evolution in the Global Political System
207(18)
9.1 Introduction
207(1)
9.2 The Process of State Secession in 1800--2014
208(2)
9.3 Data Source and Concepts for the Study of Political Evolution in 1800-2013
210(3)
9.4 Political Distance for Comparative Analysis of Political Regimes
213(3)
9.5 Political Diversity in Authority Traits in 1800--2013
216(3)
9.6 The Statistical Account of Determinism in Political History
219(3)
9.7 Uncertainty of Political Evolution and Pivotal Moments in Global Political History
222(2)
9.8 Conclusion
224(1)
10 Epilogue: Keep Jogging Along!
225(2)
References 227(10)
Index 237