Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Archaeological Computational Modeling 1st ed. 2016 [Kõva köide]

This volume deals with the pressing issue of uncertainty inarchaeological modeling. Detecting where and when uncertainty is introduced tothe modeling process is critical, as are strategies for minimizing,reconciling, or accommodating such uncertainty.Each contribution provides a unique perspective onuncertainty in archaeological modeling, ranging in both theoretical andmethodological orientation. The strengths and weaknesses of variousidentification and mitigation techniques are discussed, in particularsensitivity analysis. The cases demonstrate that for archaeological modelingpurposes, there is no quick fix for uncertainty; indeed, each archaeologicalmodel requires intensive consideration of uncertainty and specific applicationsfor calibration and validation.As very few such techniques have been problematized in asystematic manner or published in the archaeological literature, this volumewill serve to provide guidance and direction to other modelers in the field b

ydistilling some basic principles for model testing derived from insightgathered in the case studies below. Additionally, model applications and their attendantuncertainties are presented from distinct spatio-temporal contexts and willappeal to a broad range of archaeological modelers.This volume will also be of interest to non-modelingarchaeologists, as consideration of uncertainty when interpreting thearchaeological record is also a vital concern for the development of non-formal(or implicit) models of human behavior in the past.

1. Introduction: Gaining Confidence by Meeting Uncertainty Head On: Improving Archaeological Simulative Models (Hans Peeters and Marieka Brouwer Burg).- 2. What is the Research Design Role for Sensitivity Analysis in Archaeological Modeling? (William Lovis).- 3. Uncertainty in Exploratory Computational Modeling in Archaeology: Some Tentative Suggestions (Hans Peeters and Jan-Willem Romeijn).- 4. Charting New Virtual Territory: In Initial Attempt to Develop Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Archaeological Modeling (Marieka Brouwer Burg).- 5. Assessing Nonlinear Behaviors in an Agent Based Model (Jon Carroll).- 6. Scale Dependency in Archaeological Agent-based Modeling: How Many Time Steps? How Many Agents? How Many Simulations? (Josh Watts).- 7. The Sensitivity of Demographic Outcomes to Mortality-Based Feedback Mechanisms for Constraining Population Size in a Model Hunter-Gatherer System (Andy White).- 8. Archaeological Simulation and the Testing Paradigm (Thomas Whitley).- 9.

Synthetic discussion, where to go from here (Sander van der Leeuw).