| List of Tables and Figures |
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xi | |
| Preface |
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xvii | |
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| Acknowledgments |
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xix | |
| Introduction |
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1 | (3) |
| Notes |
|
4 | (3) |
| Part I Framework, Concepts, Perspectives |
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1 The Big Picture-and Some Details |
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7 | (46) |
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7 | (4) |
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11 | (10) |
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Why More Economic Growth? |
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21 | (4) |
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The Difference Space May Make |
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25 | (2) |
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The Multifold Trend and Macro-History |
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27 | (8) |
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35 | (4) |
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Macro-Historical Possibilities |
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39 | (1) |
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The Agnostic Use of Information and Concepts |
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39 | (11) |
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50 | (3) |
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2 Economic Growth: Contexts, Scenarios, Images |
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53 | (60) |
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Viewing Growth In Context |
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53 | (24) |
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The Current Hostility to Economic Growth |
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53 | (6) |
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The Nature of the Challenge |
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59 | (1) |
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The Gap Between the Rich and the Poor |
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60 | (10) |
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Asymptotic versus Exponential Growth |
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70 | (7) |
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The Future Scenarios And Images |
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77 | (34) |
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The Basic Quantitative Scenario-Context (World A) |
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79 | (12) |
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Scenario-Contexts for High and Low Growth (World B & C) |
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91 | (1) |
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Some Basic Political, Cultural, and Social Contexts |
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92 | (4) |
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The Five Basic Context Themes and Their Variations |
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96 | (15) |
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111 | (2) |
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3 Cultural Change And Economic Growth: The Emergence Of The Fourteen New Emphases |
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113 | (68) |
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Modernization and the Bourgeoisie |
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113 | (8) |
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121 | (2) |
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The Issue of Culturism and Neo-Culturism |
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123 | (3) |
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Cultural Encounters And Rapid Cultural Change |
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126 | (13) |
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Non-Violent Rejection of the Intruding Culture |
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127 | (4) |
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Violent Rejection of the Intruding Culture |
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131 | (3) |
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Non-Violent Synthesis with the Intruding Culture |
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134 | (2) |
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Violent Synthesis with the Intruding Culture |
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136 | (3) |
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Some Current Cultural Contradictions Of Economic Growth: The New Emphases |
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139 | (38) |
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The Social Limits to Growth |
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140 | (13) |
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The Fourteen New Emphases Elaborated |
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153 | (24) |
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177 | (4) |
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4 A Speculative Overview Of The Current Situation |
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181 | (50) |
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Four Sub-Periods of the Twentieth Century |
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181 | (12) |
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A Generalized Long Upswing (A "Typical" Belle Epoque from Start to Finish) |
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193 | (8) |
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The Concept of "Creeping Stagnation" |
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201 | (7) |
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208 | (8) |
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Current Western Cultural Trends |
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216 | (3) |
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What Do We Really Believe? Summary and Recapitulation of Part 1 |
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219 | (5) |
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224 | (7) |
| Part II The Real World |
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5 Growing Pains: The Emerging Super- Industrial Economy, Malaise, And Inflation |
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231 | (98) |
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The Emerging Super-Industrial Economy |
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231 | (29) |
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A Technological Crisis in 1985? |
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236 | (6) |
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242 | (1) |
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243 | (5) |
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The Transnational Corporations (TNCs) |
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248 | (4) |
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The Likely Emergence of a Pacific Basin Trading Investment Area |
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252 | (3) |
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Guest Workers and Marginal Input Organizations |
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255 | (1) |
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256 | (4) |
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Malaise And Institutional Problems |
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260 | (34) |
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263 | (18) |
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281 | (7) |
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288 | (2) |
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Malaise in the East: The USSR and the Bloc |
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290 | (4) |
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Inflation And Inflation Correction |
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294 | (31) |
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Monetarist Theories of Inflation Simplified |
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295 | (9) |
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Costs and Distortions Caused by Inflation |
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304 | (8) |
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The Anticipation of Inflation |
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312 | (4) |
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Inflation Correction by Private Indexing |
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316 | (4) |
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Official Government Indexing |
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320 | (1) |
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321 | (4) |
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325 | (4) |
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6 Two And One-Half Heroes Of Development: South Korea, Taiwan, And Japan |
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329 | (56) |
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332 | (2) |
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Taiwanese and South Korean Development as Both Typical and Atypical |
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334 | (8) |
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342 | (3) |
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Some Useful South Korean and Taiwanese Strategies and Tactics |
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345 | (15) |
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Some Japanese Institutional Problems |
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360 | (18) |
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Problems and Prospects for the Heroes |
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378 | (2) |
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380 | (5) |
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7 More On The Rich, The Middle Income, And The Poor Countries |
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385 | (48) |
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The Growth of the ACNS in the Twentieth Century |
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385 | (9) |
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Why the ACNs Should Slow Down, But Not the MIs (Particularly Not the NICs) |
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394 | (6) |
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Where Does the United States Stand? |
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400 | (3) |
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403 | (2) |
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Trade in the Emerging Super-Industrial World Economy |
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405 | (5) |
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410 | (5) |
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Some More on Middle Income Countries (Including Some NICs) |
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415 | (7) |
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Some More on the Poor Countries |
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422 | (5) |
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427 | (2) |
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429 | (4) |
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8 Recommendations, Observations, And Parting Polemics |
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433 | (70) |
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Modernization And Planning |
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434 | (1) |
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434 | (5) |
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The Concept of Modernization |
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439 | (4) |
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The Invisible Hand of the Market |
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443 | (1) |
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Modernization and Planned versus Free Market Economies |
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444 | (5) |
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Planning in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan |
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449 | (3) |
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Political Influences on Economic Decisions |
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452 | (3) |
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Cultural Influences On Economic Development |
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455 | (24) |
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On the Need for High Morale and Commitment in Developing Nations-And How Not to Meet That Need |
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455 | (6) |
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On the Importance of a "Good" Culture and "Good" Management |
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461 | (2) |
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Development and Political Stability |
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463 | (2) |
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On Poverty and Moral Imperatives |
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465 | (2) |
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The Impact of the Liberal New Class on Economic Development: South Korea and Taiwan as Abused Exemplars |
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467 | (5) |
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472 | (2) |
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Personal Note 1: The U.S. Hunting Culture and the Raising of Children |
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474 | (5) |
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Personal Note 2: Educated Incapacity |
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479 | (8) |
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Futurology And The Future Of Economic Development |
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487 | (8) |
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Some Uses of Scenarios and Images of the Future |
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487 | (3) |
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A Bourgeois (Industrial) Growth-Oriented Ideology Based on Futurology |
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490 | (5) |
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495 | (3) |
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498 | (5) |
| Appendix: Quantitative Scenario Contexts-exponential Versus S-Shaped Curves |
|
503 | |
