Dig deep to discover the truth about numbers and statistics in the media
Wrong Number: How to Extract Truth From a Blizzard of Quantitative Disinformation shows readers how to diagnose statistical errors in journal articles and media accounts of prominent public issues. In addition to the mistakes or tricks with numbers other people use to lose the truth, this book also offers more positive material, showing how to use numbers to find truth.
Written by Aaron Brown, prominent media figure, former professor, sports bettor, and poker player, and host of the popular ReasonTV series Wrong Number, this book answers questions including:
Did Californias minimum wage hike really create more jobs? Do studies show that weed causes strokes and heart attacks? Are poor geniuses being shut out of science? What is the real health risk of vaping? Does gun control work?
Wrong Number: How to Extract Truth From a Blizzard of Quantitative Disinformation is an entertaining and eye-opening read for students in quantitative programs of study, along with all individuals curious as to whether or not theyre being told the truth from their favorite media organizations.
Contents
Foreword
Acknowledgments
Chapter 1 The Story of Wrong Number
Chapter 2 Did USAID Really Save 90 Million Lives? Not Unless It Raised the
Dead
Chapter 3 Should Median Worker Pay Be $102,000? Gullible Reporters Think So
Chapter 4 Could More COVID Eviction Moratoriums Have Cut US COVID Death
Rates by 41%? No
Chapter 5 Is Marijuana Bad For Your Heart? The Head Says No
Chapter 6 No Data? No Problem
Chapter 7 A Woven Web of Guesses
Chapter 8 The War to Make the World Safe for Pain
Chapter 9 Smiles Make You Live Longer?
Chapter 10 To Truth and Honesty, May They Never Meet
Chapter 11 Confidence Intervals in Wartime
Chapter 12 Repent! The End is Near
Chapter 13 Who Stole My Nobel Prize?
Chapter 14 Why are there Poor Quants?
Chapter 15 State-istics
Chapter 16 Did Medicaid Expansion Save 100,000 Lives?
Chapter 17 A Gun Control Love Story
Chapter 18 Do You Feel Lucky? Well, Do Ya Punk?
Chapter 19 Seventh-Inning Stretch
Chapter 20 Ratpocalypse!
Chapter 21 Unsettling Treatment of Unsettled
Chapter 22 Diversity + Equity + Inclusion = Better Performance?
Chapter 23 21st-Century Muckraking
Chapter 24 Philip Tetlock
Chapter 25 Sex and Traffic Cops
Chapter 26 What is the Interest Rate in Hell?
Chapter 27 The 5% Solution
Chapter 28 Football Fixes
Chapter 29 Private Rooms and Private Equity
Chapter 30 The Reason That They Dont Teach at Schools Like Wharton
Chapter 31 Concluding Thoughts
References
About the Author
Index
AARON BROWN has used numbers to make bets and investigate questions all his life. He was playing poker in tavern backrooms and winning at the horse races while still in middle school. He was one of the top professional poker players in the 1970s and 80s, and is also successful in sports betting, advantage casino play and prediction market trading. Brown moved to Wall Street in the early 1980s to use the same skills as a trader, portfolio manager, head of mortgage securities and risk manager for top global financial institutions. He is a former Chief Risk Officer at AQR and winner of the 2011 GARP Risk Manager of the Year award. Brown holds degrees in applied mathematics from Harvard and finance and statistics from the University of Chicago. He has taught mathematics and finance at New York University, Columbia, and other institutions. Brown publishes frequently in academic and professional literature, and has served as a statistician on hundreds of scientific studies. He has been a data and methodology reviewer for major scientific journals. His previous books are The Poker Face of Wall Street, Red-Blooded Risk, A World of Chance, and Financial Risk Management for Dummies.
