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1 | (8) |
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1.1 The Macro-Finance Approach to the Analysis of Monetary Policy and Financial Risk |
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1 | (3) |
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4 | (5) |
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Part I Theoretical Foundations for Policy Analysis |
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2 Financial Markets and Asset Pricing |
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9 | (34) |
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9 | (24) |
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2.1.1 No-Arbitrage and the Stochastic Discount Factor |
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9 | (5) |
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2.1.2 Individual Agent Optimality and Asset Pricing Equations |
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14 | (4) |
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2.1.3 Representative Agent and Equilibrium Asset Pricing |
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18 | (2) |
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2.1.4 Asset Returns and a First Look at Risk |
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20 | (13) |
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2.2 Asset Pricing with Utility Specifications |
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33 | (10) |
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2.2.1 Agents and Risk Aversion |
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33 | (3) |
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2.2.2 Power Utility and General Equilibrium |
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36 | (2) |
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2.2.3 Pitfalls and the CCAPM |
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38 | (5) |
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3 The Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates |
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43 | (40) |
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3.1 Bond Pricing Representation and Yields |
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43 | (6) |
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3.1.1 Notation and Pricing Relations |
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43 | (3) |
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3.1.2 Coupon-Bearing Bonds and Duration |
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46 | (3) |
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3.2 Stylized Facts on the Yield Curve |
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49 | (7) |
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3.2.1 Moments of the US, German and UK Yield Curve |
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49 | (2) |
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3.2.2 Common Factors Driving the Yield Curve |
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51 | (5) |
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3.3 Fitting Zero-Coupon Bonds |
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56 | (7) |
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3.4 Understanding the Term Structure of Interest Rates |
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63 | (10) |
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3.4.1 A Formal Representation of the Expectations Hypothesis and No-Arbitrage |
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63 | (5) |
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3.4.2 Empirical Tests on the Expectations Hypothesis |
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68 | (5) |
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3.5 Affine Term Structure Representations |
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73 | (10) |
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73 | (4) |
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3.5.2 An Essentially Affine Term Structure Model |
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77 | (6) |
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4 A Systematic View on Term Premia |
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83 | (34) |
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4.1 Forms and Sources of Term Premia |
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83 | (3) |
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4.2 Evidence on Interest-Rate Risk Premia |
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86 | (14) |
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4.2.1 A Two-Factor Affine Term Structure Model |
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86 | (6) |
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4.2.2 An International Comparison of Essentially Affine Risk Premia |
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92 | (8) |
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4.3 Compensation for Default Risk |
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100 | (6) |
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4.4 Liquidity Risk and Asset Prices |
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106 | (11) |
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4.4.1 Micro-Finance Approach to Liquidity |
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106 | (6) |
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4.4.2 Liquidity Preference and Uncertainty in Light of Financial Intermediation |
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112 | (5) |
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Part II The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy Rules |
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5 The Macro-Finance View of the Term Structure of Interest Rates |
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117 | (42) |
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5.1 On the Use of the Yield Curve for Monetary Policy |
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117 | (9) |
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5.1.1 The Information Content and Its Interpretation |
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118 | (4) |
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5.1.2 Term Structure Reaction to Monetary Policy Events |
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122 | (2) |
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5.1.3 Implementation of Monetary Policy and the Yield Curve |
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124 | (2) |
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5.2 Joint Modeling Strategies of Interest Rates and the Macroeconomy |
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126 | (9) |
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5.2.1 The Macro-Finance View of the Term Structure of Interest Rates |
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126 | (3) |
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129 | (2) |
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5.2.3 Semi-Structural Macro-Finance Models |
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131 | (1) |
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5.2.4 Asset Pricing in a DSGE Model |
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132 | (3) |
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5.3 Term Structure Implications of New-Keynesian Macroeconomics |
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135 | (24) |
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5.3.1 Stylized Facts and Benchmark Results |
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135 | (10) |
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5.3.2 An Extension: Learning, Volatility and Persistence |
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145 | (14) |
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6 Monetary Policy in the Presence of Term Structure Effects |
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159 | (38) |
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6.1 The Term Structure of Taylor Coefficients |
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159 | (5) |
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6.2 Incorporating Long-Term Interest Rates into Monetary Policy Analysis |
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164 | (12) |
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6.2.1 Determinacy with Bond Rate Transmission |
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164 | (9) |
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6.2.2 Optimal Simple Rules with Term Structure Information |
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173 | (3) |
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6.3 Selected Further Issues on Interest Rates and the Conduct of Monetary Policy |
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176 | (9) |
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6.3.1 Policy Inertia: What Does the Term Structure have to Say? |
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176 | (6) |
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6.3.2 Monetary Policy Communication and Yield Curve Reflections |
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182 | (3) |
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6.4 Decomposition of the Nominal Yield Curve --- BEIRs and Inflation Risk |
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185 | (12) |
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Part III Financial Stability and Monetary Policy |
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7 Financial Risk and Boom-Bust Cycles |
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197 | (68) |
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7.1 Traditional Transmission Channels |
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197 | (4) |
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7.2 The Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Transmission |
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201 | (14) |
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7.2.1 Classification and Definition |
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201 | (2) |
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7.2.2 Risk-Taking, Financial Intermediaries and the Role of the Short-Term Interest Rate |
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203 | (6) |
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209 | (6) |
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7.3 The Impact of the Monetary Policy Strategy on Risk Tolerance |
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215 | (20) |
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7.3.1 Shaping Risk Premia in Monetary Policy Regimes |
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215 | (4) |
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7.3.2 Optimal Monetary Policy and Bond Risk Premia |
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219 | (13) |
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7.3.3 Risk Premia in the New-Keynesian Model Economy |
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232 | (3) |
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7.4 Challenges for Monetary Policy |
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235 | (30) |
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7.4.1 The Debate on "Too Low for Too Long" in the Pre-Crisis Period 2002-2006 |
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235 | (5) |
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7.4.2 Financial Intermediaries, the Yield Curve and Credit Boom-Bust Cycles |
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240 | (6) |
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7.4.3 Macroprudential Policy and Implications for Central Banking |
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246 | (6) |
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7.4.4 Addressing Financial Instability from a Monetary Policy Perspective |
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252 | (13) |
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265 | (4) |
A Dynamic Optimization |
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269 | (4) |
B State-Space Model and Maximum Likelihood Estimation |
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273 | (4) |
C Recursive Nature of the Expectations Hypothesis |
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277 | (2) |
D Derivation of Affine Coefficient Loadings |
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279 | (4) |
E Optimal Monetary Policy |
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283 | (6) |
References |
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