| Preface |
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xiii | |
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1 What Problems Are We Trying To Solve? |
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1 | (16) |
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1.1 The Air Pollution Tragedy |
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1 | (1) |
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1.1.1 Health Risks from Air Pollution |
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1 | (1) |
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1.1.2 Sources of Air Pollution |
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1 | (1) |
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1.1.3 How Transitioning the Energy Infrastructure Can Address the Air Pollution Tragedy |
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2 | (1) |
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2 | (9) |
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1.2.1 The Natural Greenhouse Effect |
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3 | (1) |
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3 | (1) |
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1.2.3 Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases |
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4 | (1) |
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1.2.3.1 Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide |
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4 | (1) |
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5 | (1) |
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5 | (1) |
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1.2.3.4 Lifetimes and Global Warming Potentials |
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6 | (2) |
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1.2.3.5 Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Emissions |
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8 | (1) |
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1.2.3.6 Anthropogenic Water Vapor |
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9 | (1) |
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1.2.2 Anthropogenic Absorbing Aerosol Particle Components |
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9 | (1) |
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1.2.3 Anthropogenic Heat Emissions |
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10 | (1) |
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1.2.4 The Urban Heat Island Effect |
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10 | (1) |
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1.2.5 Impacts of Global Warming |
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10 | (1) |
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11 | (2) |
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1.3.1 Energy Insecurity due to Diminishing Availability of Fossil Fuels and Uranium |
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11 | (1) |
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1.3.2 Energy Insecurity due to Reliance on Centralized Power Plants and Oil Refineries |
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11 | (1) |
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1.3.3 Energy Insecurity due to Reliance on Energy from Outside a Country |
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12 | (1) |
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1.3.4 Energy Insecurity due to Fuels That Have Mining, Pollution, Waste, Meltdown, and/or Weapons Risk |
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13 | (1) |
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13 | (1) |
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13 | (1) |
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1.5 Problems and Exercises |
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14 | (3) |
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2 Wind-Water-Solar (Wws) And Storage Solution |
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17 | (68) |
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2.1 WWS Electricity-Generating Technologies |
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18 | (10) |
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2.1.1 Onshore and Offshore Wind |
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18 | (1) |
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19 | (1) |
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20 | (1) |
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21 | (4) |
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2.1.5 Tidal and Ocean Currents |
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25 | (1) |
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2.1.6 Solar Photovoltaics |
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25 | (2) |
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2.1.7 Concentrated Solar Power |
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27 | (1) |
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2.2 WWS Transportation Technologies |
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28 | (10) |
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2.2.1 Battery-Electric Vehicles |
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28 | (1) |
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2.2.2 Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles |
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29 | (2) |
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2.2.2.1 Mechanisms of Hydrogen Production |
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31 | (1) |
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2.2.2.2 Hydrogen Fuel Cells |
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32 | (2) |
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2.2.2.3 Is Platinum a Limitation If Hydrogen Fuel Cells Are Adopted on a Large Scale? |
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34 | (1) |
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2.2.3 Comparing Masses and Volumes among BE, HFC, and ICE Vehicles |
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34 | (4) |
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2.3 WWS Building Heating and Cooling Technologies |
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38 | (4) |
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2.3.1 District Heating and Cooling |
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38 | (1) |
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2.3.2 Rooftop Solar Water Heaters |
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39 | (1) |
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39 | (3) |
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2.4 WWS High-Temperature Industrial Heat Technologies |
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42 | (6) |
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2.4.1 Electric Arc Furnaces |
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42 | (1) |
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43 | (1) |
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2.4.3 Electric Resistance Furnaces |
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44 | (1) |
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44 | (1) |
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2.4.5 Electron Beam Heaters |
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44 | (1) |
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2.4.6 Steam Production from Heat Pumps and CSP |
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45 | (1) |
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2.4.7 Steel Manufacturing |
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45 | (1) |
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2.4.7.1 Reducing Carbon Emissions with Hydrogen Direct Reduction |
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46 | (1) |
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2.4.7.2 Reducing Carbon Emissions with Molten Oxide Electrolysis |
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46 | (1) |
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2.4.8 Concrete Manufacturing |
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47 | (1) |
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2.4.8.1 A Type of Concrete That Emits No CO2 |
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47 | (1) |
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2.4.8.2 Sequestering CO2 in Concrete |
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47 | (1) |
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2.4.8.3 Concrete Recycling |
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48 | (1) |
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2.5 WWS Electric Substitutes for Fossil-Fuel Appliances and Machines |
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48 | (2) |
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2.5.1 Electric Induction Cookers |
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48 | (1) |
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2.5.2 Electric Fireplaces |
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48 | (1) |
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2.5.3 Electric Leaf Blowers |
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49 | (1) |
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2.5.4 Electric Lawnmowers |
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49 | (1) |
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2.5.5 Other Appliances and Technologies |
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49 | (1) |
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2.6 Reducing Energy Use and Increasing Energy Efficiency |
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50 | (1) |
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2.7 WWS Electricity Storage Technologies |
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51 | (8) |
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2.7.1 Concentrated Solar Power with Storage |
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51 | (2) |
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2.7.2 Hydroelectric Power Dam Storage |
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53 | (1) |
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2.7.3 Pumped Hydropower Storage |
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53 | (1) |
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2.7.4 Stationary Batteries |
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54 | (4) |
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58 | (1) |
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2.7.6 Compressed Air Energy Storage |
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58 | (1) |
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2.7.7 Gravitational Storage with Solid Masses |
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59 | (1) |
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2.8 WWS Heat, Cold, and Hydrogen Storage Technologies |
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59 | (18) |
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2.8.1 Heat and Cold Storage in Water Tanks |
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59 | (1) |
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2.8.2 District Heating Systems |
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60 | (1) |
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2.8.3 Underground Thermal Energy Storage |
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61 | (1) |
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2.8.3.1 Borehole Thermal Energy Storage |
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61 | (3) |
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2.8.3.2 Pit Thermal Energy Storage |
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64 | (1) |
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2.8.3.3 Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage |
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65 | (2) |
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2.8.4 Passive Heating and Cooling in Buildings |
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67 | (1) |
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67 | (1) |
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2.8.4.2 Ventilated Facades |
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68 | (1) |
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68 | (1) |
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69 | (1) |
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2.8.4.5 Night Ventilation |
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69 | (1) |
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2.8.5 Cold Storage in Ice |
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69 | (1) |
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69 | (1) |
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2.8.7 Stanford University 100 Percent Renewable Electricity, Heat, and Cold Energy System |
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70 | (1) |
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2.8.8 Electrified Home with Battery Storage and Heat Pumps |
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71 | (6) |
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2.9 Controlling Non-Energy Air Pollution and Climate-Relevant Emissions |
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77 | (3) |
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2.9.1 Open Biomass Burning and Waste Burning |
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77 | (1) |
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2.9.2 Methane from Agriculture and Waste |
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78 | (1) |
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79 | (1) |
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2.9.4 Nitrous Oxide and Ammonia Emissions from Fertilizers |
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79 | (1) |
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80 | (1) |
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80 | (1) |
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2.11 Problems and Exercises |
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81 | (4) |
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3 Why Some Technologies Are Not Included |
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85 | (54) |
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3.1 Why Not Use Natural Gas as a Bridge Fuel? |
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86 | (5) |
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3.1.1 Climate Impacts of Natural Gas versus Other Fossil Fuels |
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87 | (1) |
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3.1.2 Air Pollution Impacts of Natural Gas versus Coal and Renewables |
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88 | (1) |
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3.1.3 Using Natural Gas for Peaking or Load Following |
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89 | (1) |
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3.1.4 Land Required for Natural Gas Infrastructure |
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89 | (2) |
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3.2 Why Not Use Natural Gas or Coal with Carbon Capture? |
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91 | (18) |
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3.2.1 Air Pollution Increases and Only Modest Lifecycle CO2e Decreases due to Carbon Capture |
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91 | (1) |
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3.2.2 Total CO2e Emissions of Energy Technologies |
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92 | (1) |
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3.2.2.1 Opportunity Cost Emissions |
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93 | (1) |
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3.2.2.2 Anthropogenic Heat Emissions |
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94 | (4) |
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3.2.2.3 Anthropogenic Water Vapor Emissions |
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98 | (3) |
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3.2.2.4 Leaks of CO2 Sequestered Underground |
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101 | (1) |
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3.2.2.5 Emissions from Covering Land or Clearing Vegetation |
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102 | (1) |
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3.2.2.6 Comparison of Coal and Natural Gas with Carbon Capture with Other Energy Technologies |
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102 | (1) |
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3.2.3 Carbon Capture Projects |
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103 | (6) |
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3.3 Why Nuclear Power Represents an Opportunity Cost |
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109 | (11) |
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3.3.1 Risks Affecting the Ability of Nuclear Power to Address Global Warming and Air Pollution |
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111 | (1) |
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3.3.1.1 Delays between Planning and Operation and due to Refurbishing Reactors |
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112 | (2) |
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3.3.1.2 Air Pollution and Global Warming Relevant Emissions from Nuclear |
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114 | (1) |
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114 | (1) |
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3.3.2 Risks Affecting the Ability of Nuclear Power to Address Energy and Environmental Security |
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115 | (1) |
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3.3.2.1 Weapons Proliferation Risk |
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115 | (2) |
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117 | (1) |
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3.3.2.3 Radioactive Waste Risks |
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118 | (1) |
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3.3.2.4 Uranium Mining Health Risks and Land Degradation |
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118 | (2) |
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3.4 Why Not Biomass for Electricity or Heat? |
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120 | (2) |
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3.4.1 Biomass without Carbon Capture |
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120 | (1) |
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3.4.2 Biomass with Carbon Capture |
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121 | (1) |
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3.5 Why Not Liquid Biofuels for Transportation? |
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122 | (2) |
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3.6 Why Not Synthetic Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage? |
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124 | (7) |
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3.6.1 Discovery of Chemical Removal of CO2 from the Air |
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125 | (2) |
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3.6.2 Reaction of CO2 with Alkali and Alkaline Earth Metal Oxides and Hydroxides |
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127 | (1) |
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3.6.3 Reaction of CO2 with Organic-Inorganic Sorbents Consisting of Amines |
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128 | (1) |
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3.6.4 Opportunity Cost of SDACCS/U |
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128 | (3) |
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3.7 Why Not Geoengineering? |
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131 | (2) |
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133 | (1) |
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133 | (1) |
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3.9 Problems and Exercises |
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134 | (5) |
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139 | (20) |
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4.1 Static Electricity, Lightning, and Wired Electricity |
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139 | (3) |
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139 | (1) |
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139 | (1) |
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140 | (2) |
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4.2 Voltage and Kirchoff's Laws |
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142 | (1) |
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143 | (1) |
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4.4 Resistors in Series and Parallel |
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144 | (1) |
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145 | (2) |
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147 | (1) |
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4.7 AC Electricity and Inductors |
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148 | (3) |
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4.8 Single-Phase and Three-Phase AC Electricity and Generators |
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151 | (1) |
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4.9 Real versus Reactive Power |
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152 | (1) |
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4.10 Transmission, Transformers, and the Battle of DC versus AC |
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153 | (2) |
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155 | (1) |
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155 | (1) |
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4.12 Problems and Exercises |
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156 | (3) |
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5 Photovoltaics And Solar Radiation |
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159 | (34) |
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159 | (16) |
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5.1.1 Conduction, Forbidden, and Filled Bands |
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159 | (2) |
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5.1.2 Maximum Possible PV Cell Efficiency |
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161 | (1) |
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5.1.3 Creating Electric Fields and Electricity in a PV Cell |
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161 | (2) |
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5.1.4 Types of and Materials in PV Cells |
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163 | (1) |
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5.1.5 PV Panels and Arrays |
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164 | (1) |
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5.1.6 PV Panel Efficiencies |
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165 | (2) |
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5.1.7 Correction of PV Output for Cell Temperature and Other Processes |
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167 | (1) |
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5.1.7.1 Correction for Cell Temperature |
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167 | (1) |
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5.1.7.2 Corrections for Additional Processes |
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168 | (1) |
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5.1.8 Solar Zenith Angles and Fluxes and How They Vary with Tilted or Tracked Solar Panels |
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169 | (1) |
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5.1.8.1 Solar Zenith Angle |
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170 | (2) |
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5.1.8.2 Current Solar Flux to Horizontal Panels |
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172 | (1) |
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5.1.8.3 Current Solar Flux to Tilted or Tracked Panels |
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173 | (1) |
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5.1.8.4 Optimal Tilt Angles |
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174 | (1) |
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5.1.8.5 Impacts of Tilting and Tracking versus Horizontal Panels |
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175 | (1) |
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175 | (2) |
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5.3 Calculating Direct and Diffuse Fluxes of Solar Radiation |
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177 | (12) |
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177 | (3) |
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5.3.2 Solar Radiation Reaching the Top of Earth's Atmosphere |
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180 | (2) |
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182 | (1) |
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5.3.4 Radiance and Irradiance |
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182 | (1) |
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183 | (1) |
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5.3.6 The Radiative Transfer Equation |
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184 | (1) |
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5.3.7 Phase Function and Asymmetry Parameter |
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185 | (2) |
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5.3.8 Solutions to the Radiative Transfer Equation |
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187 | (2) |
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189 | (1) |
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190 | (1) |
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5.5 Problems and Exercises |
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190 | (3) |
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6 Onshore And Offshore Wind Energy |
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193 | (56) |
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6.1 Brief History of Windmills and Wind Turbines |
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193 | (1) |
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6.2 Types of Wind Turbines |
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194 | (1) |
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195 | (1) |
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6.4 Wind Turbine Mechanics |
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196 | (2) |
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6.5 Wind Turbine Generators |
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198 | (2) |
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6.6 Power in the Wind and Wind Turbine Power Output |
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200 | (18) |
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6.6.1 Wind Turbine Power Curve |
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200 | (1) |
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6.6.2 Rayleigh and Weibull Frequency Distributions |
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201 | (2) |
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203 | (1) |
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6.6.3.1 Impacts of the Variation of Day and Night Wind Speed with Altitude on Power in the Wind |
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203 | (3) |
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6.6.3.2 Impacts of the Variation in Air Density and Pressure with Altitude on Power in the Wind |
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206 | (2) |
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208 | (1) |
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6.6.5 Wind Turbine Energy Output and Capacity Factor |
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209 | (3) |
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6.6.6 Factors Reducing Wind Turbine Gross Annual Energy Output |
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212 | (1) |
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6.6.6.1 Transmission and Distribution Losses |
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212 | (4) |
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216 | (1) |
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6.6.6.3 Curtailment Losses |
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216 | (1) |
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6.6.6.4 Array Losses due to Competition among Wind Turbines for Available Kinetic Energy |
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216 | (1) |
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6.6.6.5 Overall Loss of Wind Energy Output |
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217 | (1) |
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6.7 Wind Turbine Footprint and Spacing Areas |
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218 | (4) |
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6.7.1 Defining Wind Farm Spacing Area |
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218 | (3) |
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6.7.2 Estimates of Wind Farm Spacing Areas |
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221 | (1) |
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6.7.3 Application of Spacing Area |
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221 | (1) |
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6.8 Wind Physics and Resources |
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222 | (16) |
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6.8.1 Forces Acting on the Air |
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223 | (1) |
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6.8.1.1 Pressure Gradient Force |
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223 | (1) |
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6.8.1.2 Apparent Coriolis Force |
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223 | (1) |
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224 | (1) |
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6.8.1.4 Apparent Centrifugal Force |
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224 | (1) |
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224 | (1) |
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224 | (1) |
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6.8.2.2 Surface Winds along Straight Isobars |
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225 | (1) |
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225 | (1) |
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6.8.2.4 Surface Winds along Curved Isobars |
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226 | (1) |
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6.8.3 Global Circulation of the Atmosphere |
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227 | (1) |
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6.8.3.1 Equatorial Low-Pressure Belt |
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227 | (2) |
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6.8.3.2 Winds Aloft in the Hadley Cells |
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229 | (1) |
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6.8.3.3 Subtropical High-Pressure Belts |
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229 | (1) |
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229 | (1) |
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6.8.3.5 Subpolar Low-Pressure Belts |
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229 | (1) |
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6.8.3.6 Westerly Winds Aloft at Midlatitudes |
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230 | (1) |
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230 | (1) |
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230 | (1) |
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230 | (2) |
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6.8.4.2 Gap Winds, Valley Breezes, and Mountain Breezes |
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232 | (1) |
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6.8.5 Global and Regional Wind Resources |
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232 | (3) |
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6.8.6 World Saturation Wind Power Potential |
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235 | (3) |
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6.9 Wind Turbine Impacts on Climate, Hurricanes, and Birds |
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238 | (7) |
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6.9.1 Wind Turbine Impacts on Climate |
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238 | (2) |
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6.9.2 Wind Turbine Impacts on Hurricanes |
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240 | (4) |
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6.9.3 Wind Turbine Impacts on Birds and Bats |
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244 | (1) |
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245 | (1) |
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245 | (1) |
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6.11 Problems and Exercises |
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246 | (3) |
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7 Steps In Developing 100 Percent All-Sector Wws And Storage Roadmaps |
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249 | (50) |
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7.1 Projecting End-Use Energy Demand |
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249 | (1) |
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7.2 Transitioning Future Energy to WWS Technologies |
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250 | (2) |
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7.3 Calculating End-Use Energy Reductions due to a Transition |
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252 | (6) |
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7.3.1 Efficiency of Electricity and Electrolytic Hydrogen over Combustion for Transportation |
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252 | (1) |
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7.3.1.1 Efficiency of Battery-Electric Vehicles over Fossil-Fuel Vehicles |
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252 | (1) |
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7.3.1.2 Efficiency of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles over Fossil-Fuel Vehicles |
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253 | (4) |
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7.3.2 Efficiency of Electricity over Combustion for High-Temperature Heat |
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257 | (1) |
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7.3.3 Reducing Energy Use by Moving Heat with Electric Heat Pumps Instead of Creating Heat |
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257 | (1) |
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7.3.4 Eliminating Energy to Mine, Transport, and Process Fossil Fuels, Biofuels, Bioenergy, and Uranium |
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258 | (1) |
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7.3.5 Increasing Energy Efficiency and Reducing Energy Use beyond BAU |
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258 | (1) |
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7.3.6 Overall Reduction in End-Use Demand |
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258 | (1) |
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7.4 Performing a Resource Analysis |
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258 | (1) |
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7.5 Selecting a Mix of WWS Energy Generators to Meet Demand |
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259 | (13) |
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7.6 Estimating Avoided Energy, Air Pollution, and Climate Costs |
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272 | (24) |
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7.6.1 Avoided Energy Costs |
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272 | (6) |
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7.6.2 Avoided Health Costs from Air Pollution |
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278 | (16) |
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7.6.3 Avoided Climate Change Damage Costs |
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294 | (1) |
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7.6.4 Summary of Avoided Energy, Health, and Climate Damage Costs |
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295 | (1) |
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296 | (1) |
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296 | (1) |
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7.8 Problems and Exercises |
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297 | (2) |
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8 Matching Electricity, Heat, Cold, And Hydrogen Demand Continuously With 100 Percent Wws Supply, Storage, And Demand Response |
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299 | (48) |
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8.1 Methods of Meeting Energy Demand Continuously |
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299 | (23) |
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8.1.1 Interconnecting Geographically Dispersed Generators |
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304 | (2) |
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8.1.2 Determining Annual Average Demands and Sizing WWS Generation to Meet Them |
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306 | (2) |
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8.1.3 Sizing Additional Generation, Storage, and Demand Response |
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308 | (1) |
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8.1.3.1 Estimating Heat, Cold, Hydrogen, and Electricity Loads |
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308 | (3) |
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8.1.3.2 Estimating Loads Subject to Storage and Demand Response |
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311 | (2) |
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8.1.3.3 Estimating Daily and Hourly Loads from Annual Loads |
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313 | (2) |
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8.1.3.4 Sizing Storage and Additional Generation |
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315 | (2) |
|
8.1.4 Solutions to Instantaneous Over and Under Generation |
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|
317 | (1) |
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8.1.4.1 Solutions When Instantaneous WWS Electricity or Heat Supply Exceeds Instantaneous Load |
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|
317 | (1) |
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8.1.4.2 Solutions When Instantaneous Load Exceeds Instantaneous WWS Electricity or Heat Supply |
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|
317 | (1) |
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8.1.5 Measures Needed When Instantaneous Load Cannot Be Met with Instantaneous Supply or Storage |
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318 | (1) |
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8.1.5.1 Oversizing Wind, Water, and Sunlight Generation to Help Meet Demand |
|
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318 | (1) |
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8.1.5.2 Oversizing Storage to Help Meet Peaks in Demand |
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318 | (1) |
|
8.1.5.3 Increasing Transmission Nameplate Capacity to Help Meet Demand |
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318 | (1) |
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8.1.5.4 Helping to Balance Demand with Vehicle-to-Grid |
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|
319 | (1) |
|
8.1.5.5 Using Weather Forecasts to Plan for and Reduce Backup Requirements |
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319 | (1) |
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8.1.6 Ancillary Services: Load Following, Regulation, Reserves, and Voltage Control |
|
|
320 | (1) |
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320 | (1) |
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320 | (1) |
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8.1.6.3 Frequency Regulation |
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321 | (1) |
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8.1.6.4 Spinning, Supplemental, and Replacement Reserves and Voltage Control |
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321 | (1) |
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8.2 Case Study of Meeting Demand with 100 Percent WWS |
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322 | (15) |
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8.2.1 Previous Studies of Matching Demand with or near 100 Percent WWS |
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|
322 | (2) |
|
8.2.2 Types of Models for Meeting Demand |
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|
324 | (1) |
|
8.2.2.1 Power Flow or Load Flow Models |
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324 | (1) |
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8.2.2.2 Optimization Models |
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324 | (1) |
|
8.2.2.3 Trial-and-Error Simulation Models |
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325 | (1) |
|
8.2.3 Matching Demand with WWS Supply, Storage, and Demand Response in 24 World Regions |
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|
326 | (11) |
|
8.3 Estimating Footprint and Spacing Areas of WWS Generators |
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|
337 | (1) |
|
8.4 Estimating Jobs Created and Lost as Part of a Transition |
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|
338 | (4) |
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342 | (1) |
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343 | (1) |
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8.6 Problems and Exercises |
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|
343 | (4) |
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9 Evolution Of The 100 Percent Movement And Policies Needed For A Wws Solution |
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|
347 | (42) |
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9.1 Personal Journey to 100 Percent WWS |
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|
347 | (28) |
|
9.1.1 First Exposure to Severe Air Pollution |
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|
347 | (1) |
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9.1.2 Hungry for Knowledge |
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348 | (1) |
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349 | (1) |
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9.1.4 Building a Coupled Regional Air Pollution-Weather Prediction Computer Model |
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349 | (1) |
|
9.1.5 Expanding from the Regional to the Global Scale |
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|
350 | (1) |
|
9.1.6 Black Carbon, the Kyoto Protocol, and Wind versus Coal |
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|
351 | (1) |
|
9.1.7 Wind Energy Analysis and Comparing Impacts of Energy Technologies |
|
|
352 | (1) |
|
9.1.8 100 Percent Wind-Water-Solar and the TED Debate |
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|
353 | (1) |
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9.1.9 The Solutions Project |
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|
354 | (2) |
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9.1.10 Effects of New York State Roadmap on New York Policies |
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|
356 | (4) |
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9.1.11 How the California Roadmap Led to Transitioning Towns and Cities |
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|
360 | (1) |
|
9.1.12 The Late Show with David Letterman |
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|
361 | (5) |
|
9.1.13 Impact of the California Roadmap on California Passing a 100 Percent Law |
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|
366 | (2) |
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9.1.14 50-State and 139-Country Roadmaps, New York Climate March, and Paris Climate Conference |
|
|
368 | (1) |
|
9.1.15 Impacts of Roadmaps on U.S. Policies, Public Opinion, and International Business Commitments |
|
|
369 | (6) |
|
9.2 Timeline for a Transition |
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|
375 | (4) |
|
9.2.1 Timelines for Individual Technologies to Transition |
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|
375 | (2) |
|
9.2.2 How the Proposed Timeline May Impact Global CO2 Levels into the Future |
|
|
377 | (1) |
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9.2.3 How the Proposed Timeline May Impact Global Temperatures into the Future |
|
|
377 | (2) |
|
9.3 Obstacles to Overcome for a Transition |
|
|
379 | (3) |
|
9.3.1 Vested Interests in the Current Energy Infrastructure |
|
|
379 | (1) |
|
9.3.2 Zoning Issues (NIMBYism) |
|
|
380 | (1) |
|
9.3.3 Countries Engaged in Conflict |
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|
381 | (1) |
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9.3.4 Countries with Substantial Poverty |
|
|
381 | (1) |
|
9.3.5 Transitioning Long-Distance Aircraft and Long-Distance Ships |
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|
382 | (1) |
|
9.3.6 Competition among Solutions |
|
|
382 | (1) |
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382 | (3) |
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9.4.1 Policy Options for a Transition |
|
|
382 | (2) |
|
9.4.2 Policy Options by Sector |
|
|
384 | (1) |
|
9.4.2.1 Energy Efficiency and Building Energy Measures |
|
|
384 | (1) |
|
9.4.2.2 Energy Supply Measures |
|
|
384 | (1) |
|
9.4.2.3 Utility Planning and Incentive Structures |
|
|
384 | (1) |
|
9.4.2.4 Transportation Measures |
|
|
385 | (1) |
|
9.4.2.5 Industrial-Sector Measures |
|
|
385 | (1) |
|
9.5 Conclusion: Where Do We Go from Here? |
|
|
385 | (2) |
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|
|
386 | (1) |
|
9.6 Problems and Exercises |
|
|
387 | (2) |
| Glossary of Acronyms |
|
389 | (2) |
| Appendix |
|
391 | (4) |
| References |
|
395 | (13) |
| Index |
|
408 | |