An accessible guide to the natural rate of interest, why it is likely going up, and what that means for the future of the global economy and markets.
Ask most people who sets interest rates, and they'll say it's the central bank. At a fundamental level, though, decisions by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and their peers around the world are constrained by the natural rate of interest. The natural rate - the interest rate that balances supply of saving and demand for investment, whilst keeping inflation low and employment high - has moved from academic obscurity to a central role in monetary policy, and the operation of the economy and financial markets.
For almost half a century from the 1970s to the 2010s, the natural rate in the US and other advanced economies fell. In the last decade, it has started to rise. In the years ahead, the cost of borrowing has further to climb. That shift from falling to rising borrowing costs reflects seismic shifts in demographics, technology, and geopolitics. In the years ahead, risk factors from war to artificial intelligence and climate change could accelerate its rise. For everyone from Ministers of Finance balancing the books to Wall Street titans making the next big bet, the shift from falling to rising borrowing costs has profound consequences. In a world where money is more expensive, the cost of managing it poorly gets higher.
In The Price of Money, the Bloomberg Economics team explain the evolution of the natural rate, the forces driving it, where it is headed, and what that means for everything from government debt to saving for retirement.
From the 1970s to the 2010s, the natural rate of interest in the US and other advanced economies fell. In the last decade, it has started to rise, and it has further to climb. That change reflects seismic shifts in demographics, technology, and geopolitics. In the future, risks from war to artificial intelligence and climate change could accelerate the rise. The Price of Money explains the evolution of the natural rate, the forces driving it, where it is headed, and what that means for everyone from Wall Street titans to 401K investors.
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The authors of this short and thought-provoking book explain how economists weigh up the complex forces that determine global savings and investment and ultimately, the real interest rate. Look out for the effects of debt, heat, robots, and war that they forecast will push up the 'price of money'. * Wendy Carlin, Professor of Economics, University College London * There is no more important price than the long-term rate of interest. It has been falling for almost half a century, easing the burden of debt. The Price of Money explains why and predicts a reversal with profound effects for our finances, our societies, and our futures on the planet. You do not have to agree with every assumption in this comprehensive account, but you need to think about the consequences. * Chris Giles, Economics Commentator, Financial Times * Incisive examination of why the natural rate of interest matters, its main drivers, and where it's headed-required reading for anyone who is a serious investor. * Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York * The natural rate of interest is hugely important as a North Star for the economy but frustratingly impossible to observe. This clear and concise book sheds light on it with a mixture of history, modeling, and analysis. The authors make a compelling case that the natural rate is headed higher, creating new challenges for investors, governments, and companies. Reading this will help to prepare them. * Simon Rabinovitch, US Economics Editor, The Economist *
Chapter 1 - The Price of Money is Going Up - Jamie Rush, Stephanie
Flanders, and Tom Orlik
Chapter 2 - From Wicksell to Bernanke - Jamie Rush and Tom Orlik
Chapter 3 - A New Model of the Natural Rate of Interest - Jamie Rush and
Martin Ademmer
Chapter 4 - Hard Times, Happy Days, and Electric Sheep - Ana Andrade
Chapter 5 - Demographic Destiny - Stuart Paul and David Wilcox
Chapter 6 - No More Free Lunch - Maeva Cousin and Jamie Rush
Chapter 7 - Temperature Rising - Maeva Cousin and Jamie Rush
Chapter 8 - The Rich Get Richer, The Rates Get Lower - Selva Bahar Baziki and
Adriana Dupita
Chapter 9 - China Shock - Chang Shu, Eric Zhu, David Qu, and Tom Orlik
Chapter 10 - The Problem With Petrodollars - Ziad Daoud
Chapter 11 - Russia's Revenge - Alex Isakov
Chapter 12 - The Return of History - Maeva Cousin, Dan Hanson, Eleonora
Mavroeidi, Bhargavi Sakthivel, Tom Orlik, Jamie Rush, and Jennifer Welch
Chapter 13 - The Era of Falling Rates is Over - Jamie Rush
Chapter 14 - Monetary Policy in an Age of Scarcity - Jamie Rush, Dan Hanson,
and Maeva Cousin
Chapter 15 - A More Expensive World - Stephanie Flanders
Jamie Rush is Chief European Economist for Bloomberg Economics, based in London. He has previously worked at the British Treasury, the New Zealand Treasury, and the UK Office for Budget Responsibility. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Sheffield.
Tom Orlik is Chief Economist for Bloomberg Economics, based in Washington DC. Previously, Orlik was the Chief Asia economist for Bloomberg and China economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, based in Beijing. Prior to a decade in China, he worked at the British Treasury, European Commission, and International Monetary Fund. He is the author of Understanding China's Economic Indicators and China: The Bubble that Never Pops.
Stephanie Flanders is global head of Economics and Government at Bloomberg News and Research, based in London. She was previously Chief Market Strategist for Europe at JP Morgan Asset Management and Economics Editor at the BBC. She has also served as Senior Advisor to US Treasury
Secretary Lawrence H. Summers, and worked at the New York Times, Financial Times, Institute for Fiscal Studies, and London Business School. She is an Honorary Fellow of Balliol College, Oxford and a Fellow of the Society of Professional Economists.
